General Election 2017

[Bozza]

When is the 'next' PM actually settled? Is it when the Queens Speech has been voted through?

Betfair (and Paddy Power) have been quite vague. Initially it was "when the Queen give's assent to the formation of the first ministry" a term which doesn't seem to exist anywhere on the whole internet.

They seem to have stopped using that now. I don't think it is the Queen's Speech being voted through specifically, but I believe when it is, there is a background formality whereby the Queen agree the government can proceed.

The DUP have, today, indicated that they will vote for the Queen's Speech even if their deal has not been complete with the Tories so I'm slightly surprised at the big drift in May's price. I can only assume it's to do with negative sentiment relating to her avoidance of the families of the fire.

I'll be honest, the price seems ridiculous value to me. I don't think the Tories will overthrow her now, although I'm sure many want to, simply for self-preservation. Why would a Tory MP want to go back tot the electorate now?

 

[clippedgull]

Betfair (and Paddy Power) have been quite vague. Initially it was "when the Queen give's assent to the formation of the first ministry" a term which doesn't seem to exist anywhere on the whole internet.

They seem to have stopped using that now. I don't think it is the Queen's Speech being voted through specifically, but I believe when it is, there is a background formality whereby the Queen agree the government can proceed.

The DUP have, today, indicated that they will vote for the Queen's Speech even if their deal has not been complete with the Tories so I'm slightly surprised at the big drift in May's price. I can only assume it's to do with negative sentiment relating to her avoidance of the families of the fire.

I'll be honest, the price seems ridiculous value to me. I don't think the Tories will overthrow her now, although I'm sure many want to, simply for self-preservation. Why would a Tory MP want to go back tot the electorate now?

Thanks for the reply.

Unlikely I know but I wonder if there is a possibility some Tories will abstain on the Queens Speech to force a defeat and I assume she would resign immediately if that came to pass.

 

[Bozza]

Thanks for the reply.

Unlikely I know but I wonder if there is a possibility some Tories will abstain on the Queens Speech to force a defeat and I assume she would resign immediately if that came to pass.

It would be electoral suicide wouldn't it? I agree - very unlikely.

 

[Ernest]

I'm not sure of the procedure if she resigns this weekend and whether then Labour get a chance to form a Government ?

 

[Bozza]

I'm not sure of the procedure if she resigns this weekend and whether then Labour get a chance to form a Government ?

I'm not sure anyone does! Fascinating times playing out in front of us.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I'm not sure of the procedure if she resigns this weekend and whether then Labour get a chance to form a Government ?

Not going to happen imho so you can stop dreaming

 

[knocky1]

Not going to happen imho so you can stop dreaming

May may go this weekend. Anyone put in their place by Andrea Ledsome needs to think long and hard about their suitability for the job. The Dup's coalition with a new Tory puppet leader would, as you say, keep out JC for a few months.

 

[LamieRobertson]

May may go this weekend. Anyone put in their place by Andrea Ledsome needs to think long and hard about their suitability for the job. The Dup's coalition with a new Tory puppet leader would, as you say, keep out JC for a few months.

its an interesting thought...i just don't think that it will happen quite so soon

 

[Ernest]

Not going to happen imho so you can stop dreaming

Have you not watched the news tonight?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Have you not watched the news tonight?

Yes...have you?

 

[Bozza]

It feels like a no win position for whoever is in government right now.

Corbyn would undoubtedly have a softer ride, initially at least, as positive sentiment is on his side whilst the absolute opposite is true for May. Perhaps that is what is needed for this particularly bumpy spell.

If I were Theresa May, I'd be thinking "**** it, there's more to life than this" and exit stage left.

 

[knocky1]

It feels like a no win position for whoever is in government right now.

Corbyn would undoubtedly have a softer ride, initially at least, as positive sentiment is on his side whilst the absolute opposite is true for May. Perhaps that is what is needed for this particularly bumpy spell.

If I were Theresa May, I'd be thinking "**** it, there's more to life than these low life's and exit stage right.

A few improvements but good initial point.

 

[beorhthelm]

what odds for one of Hammond, Johnson, Gove, etc? talking about Corbyn as PM if May were to resign seem to be overlooking the seat count doesnt work for Labour and that the Conservatives can appoint a new leader immediatly (if unopposed, which they can be arranged if it means must).

 

[Bozza]

what odds for one of Hammond, Johnson, Gove, etc? talking about Corbyn as PM if May were to resign seem to be overlooking the seat count doesnt work for Labour and that the Conservatives can appoint a new leader immediatly (if unopposed, which they can be arranged if it means must).

Here's the market.

 

[carlzeiss]

I'm not sure of the procedure if she resigns this weekend and whether then Labour get a chance to form a Government ?

lets hope so comrade

 

[Bozza]

Prime Minister after election odds as May continues to drift. No shortening of Corbyn, it's the Tory frontrunners who are being nudged in.

May - 1/5
Corbyn - 17/1
Johnson - 40/1
Hammond - 40/1
Davis - 50/1
Rudd - 80/1

 

[Mackenzie]

Here's the market.

Looks like it's win/win for you Bozza!

 

[Bozza]

Looks like it's win/win for you Bozza!

It's better than it looks. Initially only had a lay on May to be next PM by way of an arb against better odds available with the bookies at various times. Those bets have paid out as wins already, so whereas I was expecting to lose £250 in Betfair (less than my wins at the bookies) I'm now in profit in Betfair too. So, yes, it's a win-win, but not quite in the way you meant!

 

[Ernest]

It's better than it looks. Initially only had a lay on May to be next PM by way of an arb against better odds available with the bookies at various times. Those bets have paid out as wins already, so whereas I was expecting to lose £250 in Betfair (less than my wins at the bookies) I'm now in profit in Betfair too. So, yes, it's a win-win, but not quite in the way you meant!

Long thread on Betfair forum about the next PM market and the consensus is that Betfair will settle when a viable government is formed and whoever is PM then, BTW money on there for Hammond tonight

 

[Bozza]

Long thread on Betfair forum about the next PM market and the consensus is that Betfair will settle when a viable government is formed and whoever is PM then, BTW money on there for Hammond tonight

Yeah, I've been following that too.

I'm not as brave as some of them are professing to be by repeatedly topping up on May. I can't see she won't be PM and will present the Queen's Speech and it will be voted through but there is this little nagging doubtt!