General Election 2017

[CHAPPERS]

Astonishing that these people are so close to power now

Until you look at actually who is in power.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Until you look at actually who is in power.

The government has certainly helped in creating the environment where people would consider Corbyn/McDonnell as an option although I still think many people voted Labour despite Corbyn/McDonnell assuming they wouldn't get anywhere near government. Interesting to see which way they jump next time as it's now a real even likely outcome.

 

[carteater]

I bloody wish. Every time I contact Virgin they tell me that they'll be wiring up my street "soon". 18 bloody months and counting.

Tee and indeed hee.

 

[highflyer]

Agreed. Call the people out onto the streets and ask for "peaceful protests" and then shrug your shoulders when facemasked anti-Capitalist sorts come along seeing it is a great opportunity to stick it to the system in the usual ways of destructive vandalism and fighting the police.

As opposed to conssitent calls to cut regulations, cut taxes, cut public services. Which obviously have no consequences?

The work of those that the Tory party represent is done behind closed doors. In lobbying rooms and private members clubs. It is less public than protests on the street, and carries a veneer of respectability but it represents a far greater undermining of democracy and the consequences can be far far more devastating.

 

[highflyer]

Get Vince in

Good idea. We need a strong and Cable Government

 

[Bozza]

State opening of Parliament, including the Queen's Speech, now scheduled for 21st June (2 days late).

I'm still baffled by the Betfair "Prime Minister After Election" market which currently has May at 1.09 (1/11). The Tories will do a deal with the DUP - I just can't see it not happening. As such I see this simply as a bet on May staying alive for as long as it takes to announce that. Or am I missing something obvious?!?

 

[Ernest]

State opening of Parliament, including the Queen's Speech, now scheduled for 21st June (2 days late).

I'm still baffled by the Betfair "Prime Minister After Election" market which currently has May at 1.09 (1/11). The Tories will do a deal with the DUP - I just can't see it not happening. As such I see this simply as a bet on May staying alive for as long as it takes to announce that. Or am I missing something obvious?!?

Was reading on a forum the other day that bets on Betfair on certain markets for the election could be voided due to the confusion over what has actually won , so if another election is called for example then I guess next PM would be one that was voided

just looked at Betfair rules


This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after the next UK general election. If a government is not formed ad second general election is called, then this market will be made void

 

[Bozza]

Was reading on a forum the other day that bets on Betfair on certain markets for the election could be voided due to the confusion over what has actually won , so if another election is called for example then I guess next PM would be one that was voided

The "Next government" market stated clearly that if there was an immediate second election it would be voided. The "Prime Minister After Election" market has no such term, although you are quite correct Betfair do retain the right to void it at their discretion if there is ambiguity.

I can understand the "Next Government" market still being open (current odds: Conservative Minority - 1.08; Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition - 34; Labour Minority - 42; Any Other - 48) since the market needs to know whether the DUP agreement will be a formal coalition or not. In this instance, Betfair would determines a coalition being in place if there was a DUP MP with a ministerial post which would make the "Any Other" selection the winner since Conservative/DUP Coalition was not offered.

I can't see how there can be any ambiguity as to whether May is the PM or not unless a DUP deal collapses. It is that small chance that is still in play, I guess. I'd not say it's a 1/11 shot though.

 

[Ernest]

The "Next government" market stated clearly that if there was an immediate second election it would be voided. The "Prime Minister After Election" market has no such term, although you are quite correct Betfair do retain the right to void it at their discretion if there is ambiguity.

I can understand the "Next Government" market still being open (current odds: Conservative Minority - 1.08; Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition - 34; Labour Minority - 42; Any Other - 48) since the market needs to know whether the DUP agreement will be a formal coalition or not. In this instance, Betfair would determines a coalition being in place if there was a DUP MP with a ministerial post, and the "Any Other" selection would be the winner.

I can't see how there can be any ambiguity as to whether May is the PM or not unless a DUP deal collapses. It is that small chance that is still in play, I guess. I'd not say it's a 1/11 shot though.

The one that confuses me is next government market as Labour majority in 799/1 or a Tory majority at 999/1 which is impossible unless that includes having another election before a government has been formed

 

[nigeyb]

State opening of Parliament, including the Queen's Speech, now scheduled for 21st June (2 days late).

I'm still baffled by the Betfair "Prime Minister After Election" market which currently has May at 1.09 (1/11). The Tories will do a deal with the DUP - I just can't see it not happening. As such I see this simply as a bet on May staying alive for as long as it takes to announce that. Or am I missing something obvious?!?

I suppose it's also possible that the Queen’s Speech is voted down, perhaps by a wing of the Tories along with the other parties if it is contentious to whichever group. Unlikely as it will probably be blander than bland to avoid that very scenario, but who knows? She has a lot of stakeholders to try and assuage.

 

[Bozza]

The one that confuses me is next government market as Labour majority in 799/1 or a Tory majority at 999/1 which is impossible unless that includes having another election before a government has been formed

Buying a very small amount of money if you can be bothered to tie up £4000 to win £4 in a few days.

 

[brightn'ove]

yes. the system is wide open to abuse, not just from postal votes but theres no real checks at the polling stations.

No it isn't, you can't be registered to vote in two places at once and your name has to be on the register before you are given a ballot paper.

Nevertheless, accusing young people of voter fraud isn't exactly a way to win them back, is it?

 

[Bozza]

I suppose it's also possible that the Queen’s Speech is voted down, perhaps by a wing of the Tories along with the other parties if it is contentious to whichever group. Unlikely as it will probably be blander than bland to avoid that very scenario, but who knows? She has a lot of stakeholders to try and assuage.

Is she already Prime Minister by that point though? I think she is, although Betfair are very vague at what will trigger market settlement. Isn't the Queen's Speech the government presenting their plans as opposed to someone who wants to be in government presenting their plans?

"The Queen's Speech is read by the Queen from the Throne in the House of Lords at the State Opening of Parliament. It is drawn up by the government, and contains an outline of the government's policies and proposed legislative programme for the new parliamentary session." - source: http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/occasions/stateopening/queensspeeches/

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Putting party politics aside for a minute, I'm not entirely convinced about this approach:

According to the Daily Mirror, Labour's John McDonnell has called for a million people to take to the streets to force Theresa May from power.

The shadow chancellor urged protesters to “get out on the streets” in support of Labour’s anti-austerity message and build pressure for another election, the paper reports.

“We need people doing everything they can to ensure the election comes as early as possible,” he said.

And when he says everything he really means it ..

Violent student riots in 2010 were ‘the best of our movement’, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

“It just needed the one small spark way back in November before last, of the students kicking the s**t out of Millbank and then that spark lighting all the combustible material - that then brought people out in March, June and then November, and that’s the best of our movement and it’s still there, you know it’s still there.”

http://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/parties/labour/uncovered-john-mcdonnell-praises-2010-riots/

Agreed. Call the people out onto the streets and ask for "peaceful protests" and then shrug your shoulders when facemasked anti-Capitalist sorts come along seeing it is a great opportunity to stick it to the system in the usual ways of destructive vandalism and fighting the police.

A million people, in one place? Sounds like an ideal terror target. Probably not wise.

 

[Bozza]

A million people, in one place? Sounds like an ideal terror target. Probably not wise.

Alternatively, given how many police would need to be involved in such an event, everywhere else becomes a terrorist target.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Alternatively, given how many police would need to be involved in such an event, everywhere else becomes a terrorist target.

Indeed. It seems reckless either way. It smacks of 'we couldn't win democratically, so we need to revert to mass unrest'...

 

[highflyer]

The "Next government" market stated clearly that if there was an immediate second election it would be voided. The "Prime Minister After Election" market has no such term, although you are quite correct Betfair do retain the right to void it at their discretion if there is ambiguity.

I can understand the "Next Government" market still being open (current odds: Conservative Minority - 1.08; Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition - 34; Labour Minority - 42; Any Other - 48) since the market needs to know whether the DUP agreement will be a formal coalition or not. In this instance, Betfair would determines a coalition being in place if there was a DUP MP with a ministerial post which would make the "Any Other" selection the winner since Conservative/DUP Coalition was not offered.

I can't see how there can be any ambiguity as to whether May is the PM or not unless a DUP deal collapses. It is that small chance that is still in play, I guess. I'd not say it's a 1/11 shot though.

Senior Tory source has just said that May will put forward Queens speech with or without DUP deal. Not so certain after all it seems. The safe assumption is that DUP won't vote against given their fear of Corbyn government.


Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

[Ernest]

May delves to depths of unpopularity that seemed impossible a week ago

[tweet]875346009790054400[/tweet]

 

[Bozza]

May to be next PM drifting lots - now out to 1/7.

Corbyn to be next PM is 17-1 - the shortest he's been for a long time.

 

[clippedgull]

May to be next PM drifting lots - now out to 1/7.

Corbyn to be next PM is 17-1 - the shortest he's been for a long time.

When is the 'next' PM actually settled? Is it when the Queens Speech has been voted through?