General Election 2015

[Don Quixote]

The best Cameron can hope for is another coalition.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

These polls seem to fluctuate quite a lot. It is very difficult trying to figure out how many seats Ed will win by.

The methodology used by the pollsters can skew the figures somewhat but when you look at the rolling averages they all point to the same conclusion.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

The problem is that people with what you would normally class as 'left wing' views will always say that the rich should pay their fair share. However, the real problem IMO is that the super-rich are very good at avoiding paying their fair share of tax, and some governments/jurisdictions around the world will facilitate this, e.g. Luxembourg, Ireland, Isle of Man, Caymen Islands to name a few.

I don't approve of tax rates of more then 40% as I feel it's morally wrong. It's also morally wrong for the super-rich to evade tax. It's morally wrong for people to view welfare as a 'way-of-life/right'.
We have a moral responsibility to :
1. Free healthcare (however, this does not have to be public run).
2. Free education.
3. A welfare state to support the needy (but not the spongers/work-shy).
4. To expect a decent wage which is enough to live on.

The major problem with the UK economy is the mirage of wealth due to house prices and the 'transfer of wealth' from young to old as, in effect, the older generation have gained 'wealth' by the fact that their houses have gone up in value more than inflation. As money is designed to be a 'store of value/wealth', how can you create wealth from a block of bricks going up in value? What benefit has this provided to society to generate this extra wealth. Nothing. (I understand the mechanics of supply/demand, but the reality is that the younger generation are in effect paying inflated prices for houses, as well as paying off the national debt for the spending spree of previous generations). Add into that, the generous pension schemes which many people are currently on, and the whole system is rotten.

Neither party is telling us the truth; we can't afford the model which we want/are being sold. No-one wants to pay taxes (well, unless it's someone else's taxes).

You miss a fundamental point, as your house price increases you don't get richer, your wealth remains UNCHANGED and if you die in your house, as many of us want to, you never see any of it...

 

[Titanic]

These polls seem to fluctuate quite a lot. It is very difficult trying to figure out how many seats Ed will win by.

7 point lead in August, now all square... heading in one direction only!

 

[drew]

Ah...the utopia that is Socialism.

1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.
2. What one person receives without working,another person must work without receiving.
3.The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from anyone else.
4.You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it!
5.When half the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half will take care of them,and when the other half get the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they worked for,it is the beginning of the end for any nation!
Just imagine...a political leader addressing his party and he leaves out of his speech the two main issues...now that would be unlikely...er..

You miss a fundamental point, as your house price increases you don't get richer, your wealth remains UNCHANGED and if you die in your house, as many of us want to, you never see any of it...

Isn't that the same of any investment though? Wealth is only affected when you liquidate the asset. There are also more and more people downsizing in retirement and no doubt this will increase as more and more people look to supplement low pensions as the generation that has final salary schemes diminish.

 

[Buzzer]

Depends how much the Tories tear themselves apart over Europe

And for 'Tories' and 'Europe' replace with 'Labour' and 'Scotland'. Labour in Scotland is dying, does anybody care?

 

[Scoffers]

The best Cameron or Miliband can hope for is a coalition.

Corrected for you

 

[Pavilionaire]

Farage must be licking his lips at the prospect of a leadership debate involving Red Ed.

Firstly Gordon Brown bails him out in the Scottish Referendum, then he forgets half his keynote conference speech, then Blair says he think Tories will win election as Ed hasn't connected with people, then Scottish Labour Party leader resigns with a swipe at Labour Central Office. If UKIP had mustered another 618 votes in Heywood and Middleton it would have been one of the worst months for any British political leader in living memory.

I always thought Labour's core support was 25%, so I reckon there's a max of 5% more they could lose, and I fancy if the Lib Dems get their election campaign in order they might nick 2% or 3% back off them.

 

[Don Quixote]

Corrected for you

I think Miliband can get an outright majority, but whether he will is another matter entirely. Though, I agree it looks unlikely.

 

[larus]

You miss a fundamental point, as your house price increases you don't get richer, your wealth remains UNCHANGED and if you die in your house, as many of us want to, you never see any of it...

The wealth gets realised as many old people will down-size and use the 'wealth' from their house to fund their retirement. That 'wealth' which has been transferred from the young -> old.

 

[beorhthelm]

I always thought Labour's core support was 25%, so I reckon there's a max of 5% more they could lose, and I fancy if the Lib Dems get their election campaign in order they might nick 2% or 3% back off them.

there's a very interesting thought. we have written off the liberals, but they do present an alternative on the left and people simply don't like Miliband (and Balls lacks credibility). i have read in recent weeks op-eds that say Labour are coasting on the assumption they only need about 30% to give them a minority "win", and this approach could easily lose them an apathetic chunk of their natural support.

 

[Pavilionaire]

The No. 1 priority for the coalition in 2010 was to get the economy back on track. There's no denying they've done that. If Clegg has the balls to tackle the tuition fees issue head on early in the campaign, and manages to convince voters that the policy aim was sacrificed for the greater good - then it is conceivable they will have a big part to play in the next election.

I think the Lib Dems need to be more aggressive against Labour. It was the Lib Dems that were responsible for the huge rise in the tax-free Personal Allowance and they've had a big say in the Higher Rate tax threshold actually falling over the life of this parliament. They've actively put a brake on the Tories and championed a mansion tax that Labour have now nicked as policy.

Getting just 2% from Labour will turn the tide for them, and if it turns it will be less difficult to convince the voters in Lib Dem-held seats to vote Lib Dem in 2015.

 

[Titanic]

It would be a pity if this thread got lost... could these be merged?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?311784-Latest-Election-Poll-Labour-seem-to-be-slipping

 

[SIMMO SAYS]

If any of you lot get to the age of 58(me) you will realise Voting-Tories-Labour-Ukip-Greens- & those fecking liberals will get you precisely NOWHERE.
All of them should be put up against a wall and shot.
I feel sorry for the wall by the way

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It would be a pity if this thread got lost... could these be merged?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?311784-Latest-Election-Poll-Labour-seem-to-be-slipping

Don't worry. This thread will not get lost.

 

[Machiavelli]

The problem is that people with what you would normally class as 'left wing' views will always say that the rich should pay their fair share. However, the real problem IMO is that the super-rich are very good at avoiding paying their fair share of tax, and some governments/jurisdictions around the world will facilitate this, e.g. Luxembourg, Ireland, Isle of Man, Caymen Islands to name a few.

I don't approve of tax rates of more then 40% as I feel it's morally wrong. It's also morally wrong for the super-rich to evade tax. It's morally wrong for people to view welfare as a 'way-of-life/right'.
We have a moral responsibility to :
1. Free healthcare (however, this does not have to be public run).
2. Free education.
3. A welfare state to support the needy (but not the spongers/work-shy).
4. To expect a decent wage which is enough to live on.

The major problem with the UK economy is the mirage of wealth due to house prices and the 'transfer of wealth' from young to old as, in effect, the older generation have gained 'wealth' by the fact that their houses have gone up in value more than inflation. As money is designed to be a 'store of value/wealth', how can you create wealth from a block of bricks going up in value? What benefit has this provided to society to generate this extra wealth. Nothing. (I understand the mechanics of supply/demand, but the reality is that the younger generation are in effect paying inflated prices for houses, as well as paying off the national debt for the spending spree of previous generations). Add into that, the generous pension schemes which many people are currently on, and the whole system is rotten.

Neither party is telling us the truth; we can't afford the model which we want/are being sold. No-one wants to pay taxes (well, unless it's someone else's taxes).

This might just go down as one of the better posts I've come across on NSC.

 

[Machiavelli]

The No. 1 priority for the coalition in 2010 was to get the economy back on track. There's no denying they've done that. If Clegg has the balls to tackle the tuition fees issue head on early in the campaign, and manages to convince voters that the policy aim was sacrificed for the greater good - then it is conceivable they will have a big part to play in the next election.

I think the Lib Dems need to be more aggressive against Labour. It was the Lib Dems that were responsible for the huge rise in the tax-free Personal Allowance and they've had a big say in the Higher Rate tax threshold actually falling over the life of this parliament. They've actively put a brake on the Tories and championed a mansion tax that Labour have now nicked as policy.

Getting just 2% from Labour will turn the tide for them, and if it turns it will be less difficult to convince the voters in Lib Dem-held seats to vote Lib Dem in 2015.

You inhabit some fantasy land. The coalition said that they'd reduce the deficit in the parliament. They didn't. They said that they'd sort the economy out. Instead, they took an economy that was growing fairly strongly, and nose-dived it, such that there was no growth. It was only after that that it returned to growth. Meanwhile, Osborne -- a smooth operator if ever there was one, supported by the media -- got an easy ride. When the economy eventually returned to growth, there's all this crowing, perfectly exemplified by you.
This growth was effectively off the back of (yet) a(nother) house price boom, spiked by Russian oligarchs and others sitting on oil wealth in Mayfair, which has ripples to other parts of London. A spike that won't last, and is on its way out already.
At the same time, the median wage continues to plummet, a process that's been going on for over a decade now. Add in £9k university fees, the bedroom tax, family support targeted, the disabled too. And the worst cuts are still to come.

Clegg is a busted flush. However much he says sorry, he also said that he'd reverse top-up fees in his manifesto. He also said that he promised to do this. He also pledged to do this. Clegg will lose his seat at the next election. And he deserves it.
But I do agree that the Lib Dems will play a part in the next election.

 

[Bozza]

You inhabit some fantasy land. The coalition said that they'd reduce the deficit in the parliament. They didn't. They said that they'd sort the economy out. Instead, they took an economy that was growing fairly strongly, and nose-dived it, such that there was no growth. It was only after that that it returned to growth. Meanwhile, Osborne -- a smooth operator if ever there was one, supported by the media -- got an easy ride. When the economy eventually returned to growth, there's all this crowing, perfectly exemplified by you.
This growth was effectively off the back of (yet) a(nother) house price boom, spiked by Russian oligarchs and others sitting on oil wealth in Mayfair, which has ripples to other parts of London. A spike that won't last, and is on its way out already.
At the same time, the median wage continues to plummet, a process that's been going on for over a decade now. Add in £9k university fees, the bedroom tax, family support targeted, the disabled too. And the worst cuts are still to come.

Clegg is a busted flush. However much he says sorry, he also said that he'd reverse top-up fees in his manifesto. He also said that he promised to do this. He also pledged to do this. Clegg will lose his seat at the next election. And he deserves it.
But I do agree that the Lib Dems will play a part in the next election.

Good analysis that.

Have Labour ever failed to deliver on manifesto items and election promises before do you know? They seem to be missing from what you've written.

 

[Machiavelli]

Good analysis that.

Have Labour ever failed to deliver on manifesto items and election promises before do you know? They seem to be missing from what you've written.

Their problem was far less non-delivery of manifesto items (because their manifestos were entirely timid), and far more delivery of non-manifesto items (see Iraq, for instance).

 

[Pavilionaire]

You inhabit some fantasy land. The coalition said that they'd reduce the deficit in the parliament. They didn't. They said that they'd sort the economy out. Instead, they took an economy that was growing fairly strongly, and nose-dived it, such that there was no growth. It was only after that that it returned to growth. Meanwhile, Osborne -- a smooth operator if ever there was one, supported by the media -- got an easy ride. When the economy eventually returned to growth, there's all this crowing, perfectly exemplified by you.
This growth was effectively off the back of (yet) a(nother) house price boom, spiked by Russian oligarchs and others sitting on oil wealth in Mayfair, which has ripples to other parts of London. A spike that won't last, and is on its way out already.
At the same time, the median wage continues to plummet, a process that's been going on for over a decade now. Add in £9k university fees, the bedroom tax, family support targeted, the disabled too. And the worst cuts are still to come.

Clegg is a busted flush. However much he says sorry, he also said that he'd reverse top-up fees in his manifesto. He also said that he promised to do this. He also pledged to do this. Clegg will lose his seat at the next election. And he deserves it.
But I do agree that the Lib Dems will play a part in the next election.

Fantasy land? The facts are the economy is growing fast and unemployment is falling at rates that are the envy of the rest of Europe. Facts. I don't care much for ambitious promises made at election time, history tells us leaders of all parties usually fail to deliver on that stuff.