[Politics] French presidential election 2022

[Guinness Boy]

im not suggesting Marxism or Fascism sovlve anything, im certain they wouldnt. its odd to ask what the center grouns is getting wrong, unless you're saying everyone's happy. my objection is insulting people for voting a certain way, rather than ask why they did, what politicans should be doing and addressing those issues. are 42% of French racists, or approve of other policies, or as claimed simply stupid? we can say they're misled, uninformed, calling people stupid for voting one way sounds like not wanting to hear them.

If you vote for a racist, then you are a racist.

The rest of that, as HWT says, is nonsense. Liberal Democracy and Capitalism are established in the culture of Western Europe, and parts of Eastern Europe now. It's still the prevailing philosophy. Within those parameters there's no real desire for true Socialism among a majority of voters and even Boris's lot have not (yet) privatised the NHS. So, there's a middle ground taken by everyone in terms of macro economics and your differentiator becomes culture. Hence the culture wars. Hence binary, divide and conquer issues. Brexit or Remain. Lockdown fully or not at all. Refugees welcome or bundled off to Rwanda. Gammon v Woke.

Johnson has disgraced himself so much in office that this is what his next campaign will be all about, if he lasts that long. Already there are Tories chucking about the word "woke" like it's some kind of unimaginable evil. Robert Nemeth has used it, a mild mannered Tory councillor who normally tends bees, gets Boundary Road looking nice and runs parkrun. Dorries uses it every thirty seconds. Even a guy at work, someone I like and respect a lot but who is a card carrying Tory has started to drop it into conversation. It's used with great abandon by right wing commentators on social media.

In those sorts of circumstances it is absolutely crucial that voters do a little bit of thinking for themselves, and I'm fine with those who are too lazy to do so being mocked, quite frankly.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Agree, disturbing 42% find it acceptable to vote for MLP, despite the faux moderate rhetoric she didn't change at all over the past 5 years, France is angry and there's a lot of dis-content.

But lets face it, look across the pond at what is going on there, maybe even more people are prepared for vote for a fascist

I'd like to say we've reached peak populism globally but personally I don't think we're out of the woods yet. Here I'm a lot more optimistic, albeit learning the hard way

42% of those that voted.

You simply cannot project that on those that didn't vote - most likely those that wouldn't vote for either candidate.

29.7% is the percentage who found it acceptable to vote for MLP. The other 70.1% found it unacceptable to vote for MLP - and so they didn't.

 

[keaton]

If you vote for a racist, then you are a racist.

The rest of that, as HWT says, is nonsense. Liberal Democracy and Capitalism are established in the culture of Western Europe, and parts of Eastern Europe now. It's still the prevailing philosophy. Within those parameters there's no real desire for true Socialism among a majority of voters and even Boris's lot have not (yet) privatised the NHS. So, there's a middle ground taken by everyone in terms of macro economics and your differentiator becomes culture. Hence the culture wars. Hence binary, divide and conquer issues. Brexit or Remain. Lockdown fully or not at all. Refugees welcome or bundled off to Rwanda. Gammon v Woke.

Johnson has disgraced himself so much in office that this is what his next campaign will be all about, if he lasts that long. Already there are Tories chucking about the word "woke" like it's some kind of unimaginable evil. Robert Nemeth has used it, a mild mannered Tory councillor who normally tends bees, gets Boundary Road looking nice and runs parkrun. Dorries uses it every thirty seconds. Even a guy at work, someone I like and respect a lot but who is a card carrying Tory has started to drop it into conversation. It's used with great abandon by right wing commentators on social media.

In those sorts of circumstances it is absolutely crucial that voters do a little bit of thinking for themselves, and I'm fine with those who are too lazy to do so being mocked, quite frankly.

Minor point, I don't much about many local B&h councillors but I'm not sure I'd describe Robert Nemeth as mild mannered, isn't he the one always having to go to the standards committee and stirring bs about schools?

 

[beorhthelm]

If you vote for a racist, then you are a racist.

The rest of that, as HWT says, is nonsense. Liberal Democracy and Capitalism are established in the culture of Western Europe, and parts of Eastern Europe now. It's still the prevailing philosophy. Within those parameters there's no real desire for true Socialism among a majority of voters and even Boris's lot have not (yet) privatised the NHS. So, there's a middle ground taken by everyone in terms of macro economics and your differentiator becomes culture. Hence the culture wars. Hence binary, divide and conquer issues. Brexit or Remain. Lockdown fully or not at all. Refugees welcome or bundled off to Rwanda. Gammon v Woke.

Johnson has disgraced himself so much in office that this is what his next campaign will be all about, if he lasts that long. Already there are Tories chucking about the word "woke" like it's some kind of unimaginable evil. Robert Nemeth has used it, a mild mannered Tory councillor who normally tends bees, gets Boundary Road looking nice and runs parkrun. Dorries uses it every thirty seconds. Even a guy at work, someone I like and respect a lot but who is a card carrying Tory has started to drop it into conversation. It's used with great abandon by right wing commentators on social media.

In those sorts of circumstances it is absolutely crucial that voters do a little bit of thinking for themselves, and I'm fine with those who are too lazy to do so being mocked, quite frankly.

so are you for or against insults being thrown around, in place of sensible political discussion? or woke is bad, stupid is fine?

as HWT put it, isnt the point of politics to "engage and try to help fix the things". seems like that only applies when theres some agreement. HWT also advocates a intellegence test for voting, which would probably rule out a large proportion of the population. its a view sympathise with, but end of the day isnt remotely democratic. we should expect better from the politicans, not disenfranchise.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Totally agree HWT. Couldn't be bothered to go onto the history and the fact that 'we' created the situation which lead to Hilter's rise. It is a strech drawing parallells I agree, but the point is that 'situations' are created by Govts and the 'people' vote for any smooth talking trickster with a quick-fix promise that usually leads to a far worse situation with a Fascist/Marxist/Communist agenda. Again Russia and the Csar with the Bolshevik Revolution, those in power being plain stupid and creating the situations for their demise.

Anyway looks like common sense has prevailed, but unless he (Macron) sorts out the situations, I can see MLP gaining more and more votes next time. Unfortuantely.

Macron cannot stand next time so whoever the new candidate is, will have their own manifesto. It isn’t a given that Le Pen will continue to gain votes.

 

[Guinness Boy]

so are you for or against insults being thrown around, in place of sensible political discussion? or woke is bad, stupid is fine?

as HWT put it, isnt the point of politics to "engage and try to help fix the things". seems like that only applies when theres some agreement. HWT also advocates a intellegence test for voting, which would probably rule out a large proportion of the population. its a view sympathise with, but end of the day isnt remotely democratic. we should expect better from the politicans, not disenfranchise.

Like I said, if you're working class and think that Johnson is your mate because he's against the wokies, or you don't believe in racism but vote for Le Pen, then you are not engaging your brain. I'm against laziness, not stupidity. Most adult humans are not stupid. They just act it because it's easy.

 

[1066familyman]

What would you say, specifically, that centre ground politicians are getting wrong?

And how would you suggest that Marxism or Fascism solves the problem?

For starters, the centre ground you talk of has shifted alarmingly towards the right.

Anything slightly to the left of that is written off as a terrorist sympathising Commie.

Sad times.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

An interesting breakdown of the votes. It doesn't look like the 'thick yokels' voted for Le Pen, after all

[tweet]1518521478894993408[/tweet]

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

If you vote for a racist, then you are a racist.

The rest of that, as HWT says, is nonsense. Liberal Democracy and Capitalism are established in the culture of Western Europe, and parts of Eastern Europe now. It's still the prevailing philosophy. Within those parameters there's no real desire for true Socialism among a majority of voters and even Boris's lot have not (yet) privatised the NHS. So, there's a middle ground taken by everyone in terms of macro economics and your differentiator becomes culture. Hence the culture wars. Hence binary, divide and conquer issues. Brexit or Remain. Lockdown fully or not at all. Refugees welcome or bundled off to Rwanda. Gammon v Woke.

Johnson has disgraced himself so much in office that this is what his next campaign will be all about, if he lasts that long. Already there are Tories chucking about the word "woke" like it's some kind of unimaginable evil. Robert Nemeth has used it, a mild mannered Tory councillor who normally tends bees, gets Boundary Road looking nice and runs parkrun. Dorries uses it every thirty seconds. Even a guy at work, someone I like and respect a lot but who is a card carrying Tory has started to drop it into conversation. It's used with great abandon by right wing commentators on social media.

In those sorts of circumstances it is absolutely crucial that voters do a little bit of thinking for themselves, and I'm fine with those who are too lazy to do so being mocked, quite frankly.

I would never vote for Le Pen so agree with your first sentiment about those that do. If I were French I would have voted Macron despite thinking him a terrible candidate. It would have been very much an anti Le Pen vote and in no way an endorsement of Macron. I suspect there were many French people who did just that and that is quite sad for liberal Western democracy. Lots of parallels with the UK where I voted Tory in 2019 because I was not prepared to vote for the alternatives.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I would never vote for Le Pen so agree with your first sentiment about those that do. If I were French I would have voted Macron despite thinking him a terrible candidate. It would have been very much an anti Le Pen vote and in no way an endorsement of Macron. I suspect there were many French people who did just that and that is quite sad for liberal Western democracy. Lots of parallels with the UK where I voted Tory in 2019 because I was not prepared to vote for the alternatives.

No, I'm afraid you're quite wrong there.

In the first round there were 12 candidates to choose from with only Mélenchon coming close to Le Pen and Macron. The latter two got nearly 51% of the vote between them, basically the same proportion that voted Leave. France got the run off it deserved and anything else would have been undemocratic lunacy.

 

[Swansman]

An interesting breakdown of the votes. It doesn't look like the 'thick yokels' voted for Le Pen, after all

[tweet]1518521478894993408[/tweet]

One of those uncomfortable truths that will soon be forgotten, similar to how very few spoke about white women voting for Donald Trump, because it doesnt fit the narrative.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

No, I'm afraid you're quite wrong there.

In the first round there were 12 candidates to choose from with only Mélenchon coming close to Le Pen and Macron. The latter two got nearly 51% of the vote between them, basically the same proportion that voted Leave. France got the run off it deserved and anything else would have been undemocratic lunacy.

I’m no expert on the French system but having just looked up the results I note that the third placed candidate got almost as many votes as the first two. Perhaps that person might have given a choice that wasn’t fascist or rabidly pro EU ?

 

[Guinness Boy]

I’m no expert on the French system but having just looked up the results I note that the third placed candidate got almost as many votes as the first two. Perhaps that person might have given a choice that wasn’t fascist or rabidly pro EU ?

That would, quite frankly, be like having a "fence" option in the Brexit vote. Top two run off is the rules and quite possible that if you have three you let in the fascist because the two non-fascists cancel each other out.

 

[Gwylan]

An interesting breakdown of the votes. It doesn't look like the 'thick yokels' voted for Le Pen, after all

[tweet]1518521478894993408[/tweet]

I haven't looked at all the departments but I see that the one with the biggest vote for her (Aisne) is a mainly rural area with no big cities or towns. I'd be fascinated to know how she did well there, I don't think it's particularly high immigration and the council is left-orientated

 

[Weststander]

I haven't looked at all the departments but I see that the one with the biggest vote for her (Aisne) is a mainly rural area with no big cities or towns. I'd be fascinated to know how she did well there, I don't think it's particularly high immigration and the council is left-orientated

From the Telegraph reporting today from Aisne:

“
Ms Le Pen's score has increased over the past five years in Villers-Cotterets, which has had a National Rally mayor since 2014.

Around 80km from Paris, the town is part of what geographer Christophe Guilluy has called "peripheral France", cut off from urban areas and the type of place Ms Le Pen has pledged to save from rising living costs and immigration.

Some locals felt the town had become flooded with too many people from abroad. "Every day, we see new faces, foreigners from all over," said Mr Legros. "We can't say that France is for the French any more – we're not at home here."


Also, from Time magazine in Somme:

In Beaucamps-le-Vieux, a one-time industrial hub three hours north of Paris, Henault is not alone in his disappointment with Macron. Le Pen, a hardline anti-immigrant nationalist, swept the first-round of elections on April 10 in this tiny village, where just 786 people voted. Le Pen won twice as many votes as Macron, and four times as many as Henault’s once-favored politician, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Like many others, Henault has shifted his loyalties from far-left to far-right, bypassing the traditional socialists and republicans.

On April 24, when Macron and Le Pen compete in a run-off vote to be French president for the next five years, this tiny community will not make much of a dent in a country of 67 million people. Yet even so, it is the deep challenges in communities much like this one—declining public services, and limited job prospects—that could help determine whose vision of France finally prevails.
“

Small towns across rural France once supported countless factories, plus a thriving public sector at the local level and retirement at 57. No more.

 

[portlock seagull]

What ya call a Frenchman wearing sandals?
Phillipe Flop!

 

[A1X]

I haven't looked at all the departments but I see that the one with the biggest vote for her (Aisne) is a mainly rural area with no big cities or towns. I'd be fascinated to know how she did well there, I don't think it's particularly high immigration and the council is left-orientated

By and large (and not just in France), the “immigration concerns” votes come not from areas with high immigration but areas with extremely low immigration but who are terrified of the idea of it.

 

[Machiavelli]

For starters, the centre ground you talk of has shifted alarmingly towards the right.

Anything slightly to the left of that is written off as a terrorist sympathising Commie.

Sad times.

Well at least somebody understands that things shift. The hallowed centre ground is one of the most dreadful ideas in politics, but people love it. The whole idea of the left has been transformed in the past three decades or so.

 

[Weststander]

Well at least somebody understands that things shift. The hallowed centre ground is one of the most dreadful ideas in politics, but people love it. The whole idea of the left has been transformed in the past three decades or so.

I’ve understood that throughout.

Some people on these shores see Macron as a social democrat and general nice guy. I can only assume because he’s foreign, he’s pro EU and they can’t be arsed to follow French affairs outside of the 4 year political cycle. He’s actually centre-right, but with right wing economic policies, dismantling cherished social codes. He fibbed in 2018 to gain enough support to become president.

Genuinely, I wonder how and why the French electorate shifted to the right so rapidly, just 20% now socialist. I’m remember when for decades 40% to 50% of the nation were either socialists or Euro-communists (believing in the ballot box)? My guess - Le Pen and other racists gained support, so the other parties shifted on immigration to fight for those votes.

 

[Machiavelli]

I’ve understood that throughout.

Some people on these shores see Macron as a social democrat and general nice guy. I can only assume because he’s foreign, he’s pro EU and they can’t be arsed to follow French affairs outside of the 4 year political cycle. He’s actually centre-right, but with right wing economic policies, dismantling cherished social codes. He fibbed in 2018 to gain enough support to become president.

Genuinely, I wonder how and why the French electorate shifted to the right so rapidly, just 20% now socialist. I’m remember when for decades 40% to 50% of the nation were either socialists or Euro-communists (believing in the ballot box)? My guess - Le Pen and other racists gained support, so the other parties shifted on immigration to fight for those votes.

RE Macron, there's a whiff of Blair with a 20 year delay, although that's a little unfair on Blair
RE EU and identitarian right, yes, they've managed to elevate this as a key issue and cluster all sorts of other issues around it
RE traditional socialism: everything about that is dead or dying: heavy industry, the manual collectivised working class, macho unions, the policy framework, etc
RE party political structure: the postwar duopoly is over in much of Europe. It happened first in Italy and Austria, but has been even more rapid and stark in France
RE left: it's become more plural and (like the right) often too focused on identity. It's yet to identify an economic vision that can unite its various parts. Until it can, we'll continue to drift and be subjected to escalating levels of unpleasantness.