FAO Amex Mask-Dodgers (Heads Up: NSFW)

[Hamilton]

Claim of guesswork followed by guesswork ?

I did end it by saying I was happy to admit to not being an expert…


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[Wardy's twin]

Fair comment…..but if (big if) we end up with a mild version in mass circulation it’s possibly going to be little different to a host of other illnesses the vulnerable are far more susceptible to turning serious.

Completely agree re mixed messages, policing and lies, and would further add the selfish cohort who don’t give a toss about anyone else

Agreed - but as you said we should wait to see how mild it is before jumping the gun. My hope is that it is milder ( I take no pleasure in the controls ) and that we can normalise our lives and more importantly the lives of my kids and grandchildren. I might even get back to the Amex....

 

[FatSuperman]

Our strategy of having a high number of cases over months has been incredibly successful, compared to the over cautious Europeans, who continue to pay the price for it... with nightclubs and pubs and to some degree schools still at complete normality in this country, it demonstrates that we have every intention of continuing this strategy.

HAhahahah haha hah a AHAHhAhAh aHhA

Our 'strategy'. Mate, we never had a strategy. Are you genuinely saying that these donkey's that lead us actually intended it to work like this? I bet you believe every wonder goal from a cross or corner was intended. You are that kid in school that would fall off the roof, get their pants caught on the gutter, causing them to flip and have their fall broken, landing miraculously on their feet in shock and fear... to shout moments later 'just as I planned!'

If only our government were actually capable of coming up with and executing a strategy. No my friend. They focussed their energies on changing the law and robbing the absolute shite out of us. THAT was the only plan they enacted.

 

[Klaas]

It is blindingly obvious that the mandatory mask wearing in shops and transport was brought in entirely to appease the sections of the public who are still terrified of the virus... and the intention was not in any way to actually reduce numbers.

Our strategy of having a high number of cases over months has been incredibly successful, compared to the over cautious Europeans, who continue to pay the price for it... with nightclubs and pubs and to some degree schools still at complete normality in this country, it demonstrates that we have every intention of continuing this strategy.

There will be so much health advice provided by experts and followed by the government that they just can not make public... having a high 'natural' number of cases over many months is surely one of them. In almost every possible scenario, it is desirable for us to continue our frequent and natural exposure to the virus in all its variants as they come into existence, and for the rest of time.

I've said this before, but the confidence with which you broadcast your made up theories as more or less fact, is breathtaking.

 

[e77]

Accepting that a virus can mutate to become more or less stronger (or presumably stay the same), isn't the limitation of a stronger virus that it is more likely to incapacitate the recipient, making them less likely to infect others?

 

[W.C.]

It is blindingly obvious that the mandatory mask wearing in shops and transport was brought in entirely to appease the sections of the public who are still terrified of the virus... and the intention was not in any way to actually reduce numbers.

Our strategy of having a high number of cases over months has been incredibly successful, compared to the over cautious Europeans, who continue to pay the price for it... with nightclubs and pubs and to some degree schools still at complete normality in this country, it demonstrates that we have every intention of continuing this strategy.

There will be so much health advice provided by experts and followed by the government that they just can not make public... having a high 'natural' number of cases over many months is surely one of them. In almost every possible scenario, it is desirable for us to continue our frequent and natural exposure to the virus in all its variants as they come into existence, and for the rest of time.

Good morning from Japan, where more of the population is vaccinated than the UK's yet everyone continues to wear masks, wash/sanitise hands and ventilate well. There's never been a lockdown either. Yesterday there was one death I think and new cases are almost invisible on the graphs. Still, people haven't been happy with how the government handled things at times, but I wonder in what parallel universe you live, where you can describe the UK as 'incredibly successful'??

 

[Justice]

I’ve been wearing a mask religiously and now have a stinking cold

 

[Bozza]

Bumping this over...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I've said this before, but the confidence with which you broadcast your made up theories as more or less fact, is breathtaking.

It does look like having high levels of infection helps with Omicron tbf

 

[CheeseRolls]

Whilst I am not an epidemiologist, I talk to a lot of people in clinical trials every day (you know what I do). Right at the start of the Pandemic I was told that the most likely outcome from all this was that the virus would mutate and get weaker over time, with us all eventually being infected and re-infected numerous times over the course of our lifetimes. The challenge was seeing out the period of time that it took for this to happen. We've all had the Spanish flu apparently- it now gives you the sniffles instead of killing you.

You have all the information, other than the critical one which is time, so are you drawing the right conclusions here?

Likelihood - The virus will mutate and get weaker over time, is neither a certainty or a linear relationship. It is perfectly possible for the virus to mutate and become more aggressive in the short term and for your weakness over time relationship to still be valid. How long is the short term here is it measured in weeks, months, years, decades or are these things not discussed in clinical trials.
Impact - If your statement is correct we may not have to concern ourselves with wearing masks, washing hands and social distancing. If somehow based on your sampling, the mutations result in higher infection levels and more serious cases, the impact is more people will become seriously ill and or die.

You can get a subjective measure of risk here as Risk = Impact*Likelihood

 

[dsr-burnley]

(Disclaimer... Not an epidemiologist but I am statistician with a background in mathematical modelling)

Mutations are random changes to the genetic pattern. By definition "random" means it doesn't follow a rule like always going up or always going down - but those outcomes are always possible.

Given there is a spectrum of possible outcomes from "you wouldn't notice this virus, it's harmless" through to "this will wipe out all life on earth". Virus' need a host to survive and multiply so the longer they exist (unchecked) the more they will tend to a steady state where there is an equal chance the mutation makes them more deadly than it makes them less deadly. That stable state will depend on huge numbers of specific factors unique to that virus.

Random means that a virus can just become harmless because it got heads followed by heads followed by heads etc in its random "coin toss" changes... But it is equally likely to get tails followed by tails followed by tails and so on until we all die!

It's sensible to take all precautions to reduce the number of mutations ... It might get better but it might equally get a lot worst. And if it gets worse first... People die and we might not be around to see the return to a mathematically stable state.

There's a vital step missing in your equation about heads and tails. You're right that every mutation of the virus has an equal chance of being "good" or "bad". But there are millions, literally millions, of mutations of the virus every day. I suspect that most infected people have at least one mutation every day as the virus replicates itself like mad. The crucial factor is whether those mutations go on to propagate and dominate.

In most cases, the mutation doesn't get anywhere, it is killed before it ever leaves the host. In most of the survivors, it doesn't get anywhere because it leaves the host and dies, or leaves the host and infects someone else but dies out under the weight of other variants. For whatever reason, you don't as a rule get two variants side by side in the same person. One variant will die out.

So the mutations that survive and become successful aren't purely random. Their creation is random, but their survival is based on shedloads of other, non-random factors. And it's for that reason that they reckon viruses tend, by and large, to get more transmissible but less serious as time goes by, because being both more transmissible and less likely to kill the host makes it more likely to survive. A virus that doesn't spread well, and a virus that kills its host or makes him too ill to get out, is less likely to survive simply because it is outnumbered by other variants.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It is blindingly obvious that the mandatory mask wearing in shops and transport was brought in entirely to appease the sections of the public who are still terrified of the virus... and the intention was not in any way to actually reduce numbers.

Our strategy of having a high number of cases over months has been incredibly successful, compared to the over cautious Europeans, who continue to pay the price for it... with nightclubs and pubs and to some degree schools still at complete normality in this country, it demonstrates that we have every intention of continuing this strategy.

There will be so much health advice provided by experts and followed by the government that they just can not make public... having a high 'natural' number of cases over many months is surely one of them. In almost every possible scenario, it is desirable for us to continue our frequent and natural exposure to the virus in all its variants as they come into existence, and for the rest of time.

That is almost complete nonsense from start to finish. Sorry, but it is

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Good morning from Japan, where more of the population is vaccinated than the UK's yet everyone continues to wear masks, wash/sanitise hands and ventilate well. There's never been a lockdown either. Yesterday there was one death I think and new cases are almost invisible on the graphs. Still, people haven't been happy with how the government handled things at times, but I wonder in what parallel universe you live, where you can describe the UK as 'incredibly successful'??

As I pointed out above, he's talking complete cack. Most peculiar

 

[portlock seagull]

We should do whatever we like, and then blame the government if it goes wrong.

Very Prime Ministerial!