FAO Amex Mask-Dodgers (Heads Up: NSFW)

[Bozza]

Whilst I am not an epidemiologist, I talk to a lot of people in clinical trials every day (you know what I do). Right at the start of the Pandemic I was told that the most likely outcome from all this was that the virus would mutate and get weaker over time, with us all eventually being infected and re-infected numerous times over the course of our lifetimes. The challenge was seeing out the period of time that it took for this to happen. We've all had the Spanish flu apparently- it now gives you the sniffles instead of killing you.

Sure - that theory has been widely discussed and I’ve heard/read it many times.

It’s not linear though, which was the question asked by [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION]. Without going away to check it feels like Alpha caused more bad outcomes than the vanilla Wuhan variant and then, in turn, Delta was another step in the wrong direction. If that was the case, we've already witnessed that it's not a general trickling down of severity from variant to variant.

Ultimately a virus variant “wins” over other variants by being more transmissible and out-competing them, so it feels like (to this layman, anyway) the ideal scenario is to have a highly transmissible variant that causes almost no illness at all. This seems to be, broadly, what we're hoping for with Omicron, but I'm not sure there's any biological guarantee that another variant won't come along that is both more transmissible AND causes more severe illness.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It's utter bollocks and being used now by the "this is all a fuss over nothing" misinformation crew of bad actors, picked up by others and then spread as fact.

Just because we want something to true, doesn't make it true.

Quite.

There is some preliminary evidence (mostly inference based on outcome in a single cohort of related cases) that it is less lethal but the proof is not here yet (will take at least 6 weeks in my amateur opinion).

And, yes, the chance of covid mutating into a more lethal form is exactly the same as the probability it mutates to a less lethal form. I have posted on this previously (and commented that in the end a less lethal form or one that spreads slowly, or both, will predominate because the parasite loses if all the hosts are killed off, or all the infected quarantine).

The smallpox argument is simple. It continued to be quite lethal and spread relatively moderately because this happened to avoid killing all the hosts. But we developed a super vaccine and, because it does not spread as quickly or easily as Covid, that was that.

Our pal from Burnley can correct me on the details.

 

[portlock seagull]

I’m not sure about endgame but it will probably be less lethal. Viruses become weaker with transmissions and time. They just want to live, unnoticed in our nose and throat. Killing the host is not beneficial.

By slowing down the transmission rate, while helping the NHS, you keep the virus more lethal.

At some point an unnoticeable variant will emerge, hopefully spread quickly and that’ll be an end to the worry. This Omicrom may be that. It seems to be spreading rapidly but doing little harm. And that is EXACTLY what we want.

Similar argument about sharks believing we’re seals and leaving us alone after an initial try bite.

Hell of a try bite, especially after you’ve bled to death whilst the Shark swims off in search of a proper meal!

 

[Nitram]

Thanks some very interesting input and civilised debate. Let’s hope people will be sensible and wear masks for the next few weeks until the picture becomes clearer.

 

[Hamilton]

Best to read through the thread

Done so now, and I’d respectfully suggest it’s still guesswork and hope.

I think it takes decades+ for what you are suggesting to happen. We’ve only had this for 18 months.

Even with unknown mutations, there’s no point in risking hospital capacity, the capability for people to work and for business to operate, or put those with immune deficiency (to name a few).

I’m sure many on here would like to keep going to the pub and the football. Could all still happen if we slowed the spread a little.

Might be even better if we vaccinated the whole world.

Anyhow, you and I aren’t experts and no amount of googling will make us so. That being the case, I’m happy to trust Whitty, Vallance, JVT, Susan Hopkins etc.


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[The Clamp]

Done so now, and I’d respectfully suggest it’s still guesswork and hope.

I think it takes decades+ for what you are suggesting to happen. We’ve only had this for 18 months.

Even with unknown mutations, there’s no point in risking hospital capacity, the capability for people to work and for business to operate, or put those with immune deficiency (to name a few).

I’m sure many on here would like to keep going to the pub and the football. Could all still happen if we slowed the spread a little.

Might be even better if we vaccinated the whole world.

Anyhow, you and I aren’t experts and no amount of googling will make us so. That being the case, I’m happy to trust Whitty, Vallance, JVT, Susan Hopkins etc.


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I meant read the part where I posted I’d done some reading and I was wrong

 

[dazzer6666]

Done so now, and I’d respectfully suggest it’s still guesswork and hope.

I think it takes decades+ for what you are suggesting to happen. We’ve only had this for 18 months.

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Claim of guesswork followed by guesswork ?

 

[Commander]

I can’t believe there isn’t an actual Epidemiologist on NSC. Never before have I read a thread about something where some smug ******* doesn’t come along and say “Actually I AM an expert in this, and here is why you are wrong”.

 

[portlock seagull]

It is blindingly obvious that the mandatory mask wearing in shops and transport was brought in entirely to appease the sections of the public who are still terrified of the virus... and the intention was not in any way to actually reduce numbers.

Our strategy of having a high number of cases over months has been incredibly successful, compared to the over cautious Europeans, who continue to pay the price for it... with nightclubs and pubs and to some degree schools still at complete normality in this country, it demonstrates that we have every intention of continuing this strategy.

There will be so much health advice provided by experts and followed by the government that they just can not make public... having a high 'natural' number of cases over many months is surely one of them. In almost every possible scenario, it is desirable for us to continue our frequent and natural exposure to the virus in all its variants as they come into existence, and for the rest of time.

Managing perception is very important though. Who was it that said perception is reality? Regardless, masks do reduce spread. The bath may still leak, but less so. Trouble is because it still leaks, plenty are happy to chuck the baby out too.

 

[portlock seagull]

I can’t believe there isn’t an actual Epidemiologist on NSC. Never before have I read a thread about something where some smug ******* doesn’t come along and say “Actually I AM an expert in this, and here is why you are wrong”.

Commander, you’ve got the title and spotted a gap so go for it!

What should we do, Commander?

 

[Lower West Stander]

Nothing wrong with wearing masks and being sensible. Everything wrong with panicking.

We don’t know. No one does. Let’s just follow current advice and leave it at that rather than trying to second guess.

Although whenever I see Ferguson, I’m inclined to do the opposite of what he says!


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[portlock seagull]

Nothing wrong with wearing masks and being sensible. Everything wrong with panicking.

We don’t know. No one does. Let’s just follow current advice and leave it at that rather than trying to second guess.

Although whenever I see Ferguson, I’m inclined to do the opposite of what he says!


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I see what you’ve done there. But why bring sense into the equation? Surely unfounded speculation builds a better, stronger society for the benefit of all?

 

[soistes]

Sure - that theory has been widely discussed and I’ve heard/read it many times.

It’s not linear though, which was the question asked by [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION]. Without going away to check it feels like Alpha caused more bad outcomes than the vanilla Wuhan variant and then, in turn, Delta was another step in the wrong direction. If that was the case, we've already witnessed that it's not a general trickling down of severity from variant to variant.

Ultimately a virus variant “wins” over other variants by being more transmissible and out-competing them, so it feels like (to this layman, anyway) the ideal scenario is to have a highly transmissible variant that causes almost no illness at all. This seems to be, broadly, what we're hoping for with Omicron, but I'm not sure there's any biological guarantee that another variant won't come along that is both more transmissible AND causes more severe illness.

I suspect you may be right about this. We just don't know. It's certainly not accepted in the scientific world that viruses evolve over time through variation to become less severe. Some do, but many don't. As noted by one such scientist in this interesting recent article from Nature.

"The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.” "
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03619-8

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

I can’t believe there isn’t an actual Epidemiologist on NSC. Never before have I read a thread about something where some smug ******* doesn’t come along and say “Actually I AM an expert in this, and here is why you are wrong”.

Nope, but there are far too many on NSC, several who have contributed to this thread, who believe Duran Duran are a credible music concern that it honestly beggars belief, grown men who can take seriously lyrics such as:

The reflex is a lonely child, who's waiting by the park
The reflex is in charge of finding treasure in the dark
And watching over lucky clover, isn't that bizarre?
And every little thing the reflex does
Leaves you answered with a question mark

You’d have to be a complete f***ing moron without exception to listen to that nonsensical crap in the 80s, unless a teenage girl, let alone a man in 2021. Get a frickin grip ffs!.

 

[Commander]

Commander, you’ve got the title and spotted a gap so go for it!

What should we do, Commander?

We should do whatever we like, and then blame the government if it goes wrong.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I’m happy to wear a mask if it helps protect others more vulnerable than me. And if it means I’ve less chance of getting colds and flu that’s great too.

 

[Wardy's twin]

I don't disagree, but waiting a couple of weeks until we have more solid data on Omicron isn't unreasonable (IMO) so if the experts have determined mask-wearing is sensible for now I'm not quite sure why so many people are ignoring it. If it is indeed the very mild 'end game' version of Covid, then yes, let it rip (and anyone not vaccinated can take the risk)

Its not just the unvaccinated its anyone who a) doesn't have an immune system ( a lot of people who have had cancer treatment) b) has physical issues with their hear or lungs or other key organs.

People are ignoring it because a) they are getting mixed messages from the government b) the situation is not/has not been policed c) they think they have been lied to as shown regards the story about the xmas party last year.

 

[dazzer6666]

I can’t believe there isn’t an actual Epidemiologist on NSC. Never before have I read a thread about something where some smug ******* doesn’t come along and say “Actually I AM an expert in this, and here is why you are wrong”.

There’s enough of them publicly spouting their views already and even they can’t agree………

 

[dazzer6666]

Its not just the unvaccinated its anyone who a) doesn't have an immune system ( a lot of people who have had cancer treatment) b) has physical issues with their hear or lungs or other key organs.

People are ignoring it because a) they are getting mixed messages from the government b) the situation is not/has not been policed c) they think they have been lied to as shown regards the story about the xmas party last year.

Fair comment…..but if (big if) we end up with a mild version in mass circulation it’s possibly going to be little different to a host of other illnesses the vulnerable are far more susceptible to turning serious.

Completely agree re mixed messages, policing and lies, and would further add the selfish cohort who don’t give a toss about anyone else

 

[jackanada]

Re: Spanish Flu
A disease that was most likely Influenza is recorded in history thousands of years prior to the advent of Spanish Flu.

I'm not an epidemiologist though I do know a professor of epidemiology and not being anti science when people have actual medals for knowing their shit I listen to them.