FAO Amex Mask-Dodgers (Heads Up: NSFW)

[The Clamp]

Curious as to your epidemiological background. I have absolutely none at all, but reading those who have it in abundance seem to be very much in agreement that further mutating is *not* what anyone wants, hence the need to "vaccinate the world" (and not just us rich folk).

I wear a mask to protect other people because, just a few weeks ago I was walking around infected and infectious and had no idea. Fortunately I'm largely a hermit and the few occasions I was in enclosed spaces with others, I dutifully masked up, and this was before the reimposition of masks. It may just have kept someone out of hospital or even saved a life. There's no way of knowing that, of course, but it was certainly a positive for those I met that I was wearing a mask at that time.

You’re probably right.

 

[Bozza]

Is it proven that lethality in viruses decreases in a linear / predictable fashion, or does it fluctuate? Surely this is all driven by mutations on the virus, so there's a chance that the 'next' variant might be MORE deadly?

I'd welcome some (peer reviewed) reassurance.

It's utter bollocks and being used now by the "this is all a fuss over nothing" misinformation crew of bad actors, picked up by others and then spread as fact.

Just because we want something to true, doesn't make it true.

 

[The Clamp]

It's utter bollocks and being used now by the "this is all a fuss over nothing" misinformation crew bad actors, picked up by others and spread as fact by others.

Doesn’t take much to research, which I’ve done and it turns out I was wrong. I avoid engaging with you on the Covid threads because I feel you get quite overwhelmed by the subject of Covid but I’m happy to pipe up and admit when I’m wrong.

 

[METALMICKY]

Let's all look forward to the potential aggro on the concourses on Sunday between those wearing masks and those choosing not to

 

[dazzer6666]

It's utter bollocks and being used now by the "this is all a fuss over nothing" misinformation crew of bad actors, picked up by others and then spread as fact.

Just because we want something to true, doesn't make it true.

Yep - as usual we have the extreme factions at either end of the spectrum..............thing is we simply don't know yet.....it MIGHT be, equally it very much might not be. So please wear a mask until we know

 

[Hamilton]

I’m not sure about endgame but it will probably be less lethal. Viruses become weaker with transmissions and time. They just want to live, unnoticed in our nose and throat. Killing the host is not beneficial.

By slowing down the transmission rate, while helping the NHS, you keep the virus more lethal.

At some point an unnoticeable variant will emerge, hopefully spread quickly and that’ll be an end to the worry. This Omicrom may be that. It seems to be spreading rapidly but doing little harm. And that is EXACTLY what we want.

That kinda sounds like guesswork.

I'm no virologist, but I'd suggest we have no idea whether speeding up mutations is good or bad.

What I am fairly certain of is that filling up hospitals during their busiest time is probably a bit short-sighted.

Just a thought.

 

[The Clamp]

That kinda sounds like guesswork.

I'm no virologist, but I'd suggest we have no idea whether speeding up mutations is good or bad.

What I am fairly certain of is that filling up hospitals during their busiest time is probably a bit short-sighted.

Just a thought.

Best to read through the thread

 

[US Seagull]

Yep. After some research I have admitted I was wrong. See my last post.

Fair enough. Apologies if I came off as far too snarky.

We're certainly all want this damn thing to end. It's been over two years since I last saw my folks in person.

 

[The Clamp]

Fair enough. Apologies if I came off as far too snarky.

We're certainly all want this damn thing to end. It's been over two years since I last saw my folks in person.

Quite. Though I did initially read that as “prison” not “person”

 

[Notters]

Going to delete this for risk of enflaming things further!

 

[Live by the sea]

Right. Because thousands of years of humanity suffering from smallpox was ended when it magically mutated into something less lethal.

...Oh wait, no...it was the vaccine.

It is NOT some kind of rule of viruses that they have to become less lethal overtime. Some do. Many don't.

Absolutely spot on , there is not some kind of rule .

 

[Bozza]

Doesn’t take much to research, which I’ve done and it turns out I was wrong. I avoid engaging with you on the Covid threads because I feel you get quite overwhelmed by the subject of Covid but I’m happy to pipe up and admit when I’m wrong.

Nah, I just get annoyed when people repeatedly try to play down something that really is quite serious. It can literally lead to people losing their lives and, in the case of the very worst people involved in Covid misinformation, has cost many lives needlessly (check out the Hart Group expose for a start).

I'm largely chill on the whole thing right now. Omicron is here, it's well-seeded and will likely take off like a rocket. (Note: rockets initially move quite slowly off the launchpad before really picking up pace). Given the expected rate of infectiousness there is precious little we can do about it now, but sit back, cross our fingers and wait. Travel bans, quarantines and the like will make little difference to the spread now - you could only buy a few days of time back at best. And, even if we do buy a bit of time, what will we do with it?

If the infectiousness really is close to current estimates, it will need to be a lot milder than Delta to counter that. And the claim that "most Omicron infections are mild" doesn't mean anything at all since most Delta infections are also mild. The problem would be the small percentage of those infections that end up needing hospital care, and a small percentage of a very big number still equals a big number.

 

[The Clamp]

Smallpox hardly mutates, so is not in any way comparable.



It literally is a rule, generally they do.
That doesn't mean they always do, of course.



You weren't wrong. Not entirely anyway.
The examples that article gives are pretty poor too.

As far as I can tell it is fairly widely accepted that Spanish flu (eventually) died out because it became less serious.

I hope that’s the case.

 

[The Clamp]

Nah, I just get annoyed when people repeatedly try to play down something that really is quite serious. It can literally lead to people losing their lives and, in the case of the very worst people involved in Covid misinformation, has cost many lives needlessly (check out the Hart Group expose for a start).

I'm largely chill on the whole thing right now. Omicron is here, it's well-seeded and will likely take off like a rocket. (Note: rockets initially move quite slowly off the launchpad before really picking up pace). Given the expected rate of infectiousness there is precious little we can do about it now, but sit back, cross our fingers and wait. Travel bans, quarantines and the like will make little difference to the spread now - you could only buy a few days of time back at best. And, even if we do buy a bit of time, what will we do with it?

If the infectiousness really is close to current estimates, it will need to be a lot milder than Delta to counter that. And the claim that "most Omicron infections are mild" doesn't mean anything at all since most Delta infections are also mild. The problem would be the small percentage of those infections that end up needing hospital care, and a small percentage of a very big number still equals a big number.

Thank you for the reply. Above all, we are all hoping this blasted thing settles down soon and doesn’t take too many more people with it. That we can all agree on

 

[Bozza]

Thank you for the reply. Above all, we are all hoping this blasted thing settles down soon and doesn’t take too many more people with it. That we can all agree on

Yep. Get your jabs. Wear a mask. Be a nice person. See you on the other side.

 

[The Clamp]

Yep. Get your jabs. Wear a mask. Be a nice person. See you on the other side.

I’m jabbed, I mask up at work and play and I can be nice sometimes

 

[Seagull58]

Yep. Get your jabs. Wear a mask. Be a nice person. See you on the other side.

See you on the other side? That sounds like mass extinction is just round the corner (but I know what you meant).

 

[Commander]

Curious as to your epidemiological background. I have absolutely none at all, but reading those who have it in abundance seem to be very much in agreement that further mutating is *not* what anyone wants, hence the need to "vaccinate the world" (and not just us rich folk).

I wear a mask to protect other people because, just a few weeks ago I was walking around infected and infectious and had no idea. Fortunately I'm largely a hermit and the few occasions I was in enclosed spaces with others, I dutifully masked up, and this was before the reimposition of masks. It may just have kept someone out of hospital or even saved a life. There's no way of knowing that, of course, but it was certainly a positive for those I met that I was wearing a mask at that time.

Whilst I am not an epidemiologist, I talk to a lot of people in clinical trials every day (you know what I do). Right at the start of the Pandemic I was told that the most likely outcome from all this was that the virus would mutate and get weaker over time, with us all eventually being infected and re-infected numerous times over the course of our lifetimes. The challenge was seeing out the period of time that it took for this to happen. We've all had the Spanish flu apparently- it now gives you the sniffles instead of killing you.

 

[father_and_son]

Whilst I am not an epidemiologist, I talk to a lot of people in clinical trials every day (you know what I do). Right at the start of the Pandemic I was told that the most likely outcome from all this was that the virus would mutate and get weaker over time, with us all eventually being infected and re-infected numerous times over the course of our lifetimes. The challenge was seeing out the period of time that it took for this to happen. We've all had the Spanish flu apparently- it now gives you the sniffles instead of killing you.

(Disclaimer... Not an epidemiologist but I am statistician with a background in mathematical modelling)

Mutations are random changes to the genetic pattern. By definition "random" means it doesn't follow a rule like always going up or always going down - but those outcomes are always possible.

Given there is a spectrum of possible outcomes from "you wouldn't notice this virus, it's harmless" through to "this will wipe out all life on earth". Virus' need a host to survive and multiply so the longer they exist (unchecked) the more they will tend to a steady state where there is an equal chance the mutation makes them more deadly than it makes them less deadly. That stable state will depend on huge numbers of specific factors unique to that virus.

Random means that a virus can just become harmless because it got heads followed by heads followed by heads etc in its random "coin toss" changes... But it is equally likely to get tails followed by tails followed by tails and so on until we all die!

It's sensible to take all precautions to reduce the number of mutations ... It might get better but it might equally get a lot worst. And if it gets worse first... People die and we might not be around to see the return to a mathematically stable state.

 

[dazzer6666]

(Disclaimer... Not an epidemiologist but I am statistician with a background in mathematical modelling)

Mutations are random changes to the genetic pattern. By definition "random" means it doesn't follow a rule like always going up or always going down - but those outcomes are always possible.

Given there is a spectrum of possible outcomes from "you wouldn't notice this virus, it's harmless" through to "this will wipe out all life on earth". Virus' need a host to survive and multiply so the longer they exist (unchecked) the more they will tend to a steady state where there is an equal chance the mutation makes them more deadly than it makes them less deadly. That stable state will depend on huge numbers of specific factors unique to that virus.

Random means that a virus can just become harmless because it got heads followed by heads followed by heads etc in its random "coin toss" changes... But it is equally likely to get tails followed by tails followed by tails and so on until we all die!

It's sensible to take all precautions to reduce the number of mutations ... It might get better but it might equally get a lot worst. And if it gets worse first... People die and we might not be around to see the return to a mathematically stable state.

Whilst I am not an epidemiologist, I talk to a lot of people in clinical trials every day (you know what I do). Right at the start of the Pandemic I was told that the most likely outcome from all this was that the virus would mutate and get weaker over time, with us all eventually being infected and re-infected numerous times over the course of our lifetimes. The challenge was seeing out the period of time that it took for this to happen. We've all had the Spanish flu apparently- it now gives you the sniffles instead of killing you.

Think you're both right - we just don't know yet whether this is the weakening mutation (or indeed whether there will be others later that are bad), and until we do we need to be bloody careful.