[Other Sport] F1 2024

[Audax]

Five races in the bank, and with rumours re: Sargeant's future emerging (see above), I thought it might be a good time to take a look at how my pre-season predictions are standing up. Those predictions were:

Right. It's Race Week. That means it's time for my top ten predictions for the season. Last year's predictions were ... more miss than hit. Must do better. Some of these are probably slam dunks, others might be very debatable and not last more than a few weekends before being obviously wrong.

1. Max Verstappen is WDC again. Wins more than 50% of the races, but doesn't quite have everything as easy as last season.

2. At least 3 different teams win at least 1 race each. I'll even take a stab at who: Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren.

3. Ferrari start the season much closer to Red Bull and have solved their in-race tyre degradation problem from last year. Double-podium results are well within reach regularly, and Leclerc finally converts a pole position into a win.

4. Perez struggles with the additional pressure applied by Ferrari. Red Bull's patience wears thin rapidly, and a shocking Miami race off the back of one of those "supportive" Red Bull statements about putting an arm around him but needing to see his results improve sees him on his way out.

5. Ricciardo dominates Tsunoda, and scores regular points for VCARB in the midfield scrap. Replaces Perez at Red Bull for the Imola round.

6. Alpine are the shock failures of the season, slipping into an almighty ding-dong battle with Haas for the wooden spoon.

7. McLaren and Mercedes are both much stronger than they were at the start of 2023, but find themselves behind Ferrari. Both are nevertheless regular podium chasers.

8. Alonso performs more magic with Aston Martin, and rumours rapidly grow about Mercedes targeting him to replace Hamilton.

9. Sargeant continues to get spanked by Albon, leading to a mid-season swap for Mercedes Junior Andrea Kimi Antonelli.

10. The Andretti entry continues to be a thorn in the FOM's side, and by the end of the season their entry for 2026 has been accepted.

1. Yep, think this will pan out. Suspect there will be more races later this season where the competition give him headaches, especially as other teams bring their upgrades.

2. Red Bull and Ferrari so far. McLaren looking the most likely to give me the trifecta. Could have happened at China if Verstappen running over the Sauber front wing endplate late on had caused a puncture.

3. Part 1 - yep. Part 2 - more or less? Part 3 - hmmmm...

4. Nope. Looks like Perez has mentally found his place as number 2, and that's taken pressure off despite the Ferrari pressure.

5. Nope. DR vs YT has more time to play out, though, given the question marks over whether DRs car was faulty for the first few races.

6. Yep, although "ding-dong battle with Haas" may have been too generous...

7. McLaren yes. Mercedes debatable - appears to be very track dependent with them, and they've still got issues in the car.

8. Yes. Until Alonso himself closed down the rumours. But the magic is there.

9. Yes. Whether or not the swap happens (I must admit I'd forgotten his age hurdle), the smoke has started.

10. Yes for being a thorn. Will have to wait and see on 2026, but it's now emerged that Andretti and FOM *are* still talking with another round of talks scheduled for during the Miami race weekend. Some rumours that the proposal to increase points to the top 12 for next season is partly due to increasing chances of Andretti being allowed to race (one way or another).

 

[Muzzman]

Adrian Newey: Red Bull design chief to leave over Christian Horner allegations

Red Bull design chief Adrian Newey is to leave the team in the wake of the controversy involving allegations about team principal Christian Horner.

www.bbc.co.uk

Adrian Newey to leave Red Bull...

 

[Audax]

Adrian Newey: Red Bull design chief to leave over Christian Horner allegations

Red Bull design chief Adrian Newey is to leave the team in the wake of the controversy involving allegations about team principal Christian Horner.

www.bbc.co.uk

Adrian Newey to leave Red Bull...

Beat me to it. It's exploded all over the F1 press - and we're not talking the press who are willing to take risks. IMO he's leaving, no doubt about that. The question will be where to?

From here, the next thing to watch for is any change in Verstappen's approach once this gets confirmed. The cracks are now widening - how wide do they need to get before Verstappen decides he'd rather not be there?

 

[Audax]

Beat me to it. It's exploded all over the F1 press - and we're not talking the press who are willing to take risks. IMO he's leaving, no doubt about that. The question will be where to?

From here, the next thing to watch for is any change in Verstappen's approach once this gets confirmed. The cracks are now widening - how wide do they need to get before Verstappen decides he'd rather not be there?

Conflicting report / rumour that this may simply be a case of Newey telling RBR he won't be renewing his contract (which expires at the end of 2025). So he may not be going anywhere immediately. But if his intent is to go to another F1 team post-RBR, it's likely he'll be placed on gardening leave next season. In which case he'll have no input into RBR's 2026 car.

 

[AstroSloth]

The most common assumptions currently seem to be Aston Martin or Ferrari.

I'd quite like it to be Aston Martin, but not if Stroll is still going to be driving for them.

 

[A1X]

If Newey and Max go then there’s not a lot left of Red Bull is there? Horner in his own little fiefdom.

 

[A1X]

The most common assumptions currently seem to be Aston Martin or Ferrari.

I'd quite like it to be Aston Martin, but not if Stroll is still going to be driving for them.

If Ferrari can bring together Newey, Hamilton and Leclerc they’ll take a lot of stopping IMHO

 

[zefarelly]

If Ferrari can bring together Newey, Hamilton and Leclerc they’ll take a lot of stopping IMHO

They'll still need a general manager who's cool on the day, not an arm waving panic monkey.

 

[ukpolska]

I have always had the utmost respect for Adrian Newey and I have met Hannah Newey his daughter as she is a friend of my nephew and the man has integrity and loves the sport he has been in for over 40 years.

The Red Bull Christian Horner scandal has been handed terribly and the way they have treated the woman at the centre of this is totally disgusting.

Adrian Newey has decided enough is enough and will not work with a team that treats people like this and has resigned as the chief technical officer of the Red Bull Racing F1 team and massive respect for him in doing so.

 

[AstroSloth]

If Ferrari can bring together Newey, Hamilton and Leclerc they’ll take a lot of stopping IMHO

The only thing that can stop them is themselves.

Although we've seen that happen plenty.

 

[Audax]

Hulkenburg has signed for Sauber/Audi from 2025:

Hulkenberg becomes first Audi F1 driver signing

Nico Hulkenberg has been announced as Audi's first driver signing for its impending works F1 team following confirmation earlier on Friday that he will leave Haas at the end of the 2024 season

www.the-race.com

And rumours have emerged that Gasly is in talks with Williams. My own interpretation of this is that the Alpine drivers know that Alpine are likely to promote Doohan (or Martins if he finds his F2 form) into a race seat for 2025.

 

[Audax]

So with the 2025 driver moves hotting up, thought I'd start a tracker. Driver names in bold are theoretically locked in by contract already.

Red Bull
1. Verstappen (contract to 2028; but if Red Bull implodes he'll go early)
2. Perez (out of contract after 2024); Ricciardo (needs to up his form at VCARB); Sainz

Ferrari
1. Leclerc (long term contract)
2. Hamilton (multi year contract)

McLaren
1. Norris (multi year contract)
2. Piastri (multi year contract)

Mercedes
1. Russell (not sure on contract at time of posting)
2. Antonelli (Merc junior in F2); Sainz

Aston Martin
1. Alonso (multi year contract)
2. Stroll (ugh)

VCARB
1. Tsunoda (contract expires end of 2024?); Lawson
2. Ricciardo (contract expires end of 2024); Lawson

Sauber / Audi
1. Hulkenberg (new contract)
2. Bottas; Sainz; Zhou

Williams
1. Albon (contracted for 2025)
2. Sargeant (rumoured to be on race-by-race contract); Gasly; Antonelli

Haas
1. Magnussen
2. Bearman (rumoured)

Alpine
1. Ocon
2. Doohan; Martins; Gasly

 

[Audax]

30th anniversary of the deaths of Senna and Ratzenberger at the Imola GP weekend in 1994 is this week. Netflix have chosen to mark this by releasing a teaser trailer for their 6-episode mini-series about Senna, very cleverly entitled "Senna":

https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/senna-series-formula-1-news-photos-release-date

 

[Flounce]

Following on from @Audax post this is an excellent, if long article, regarding Sid Watkins and Senna from the BBC

Sid Watkins, Ayrton Senna and Formula 1's safety revolution

It is 30 years since the death of Ayrton Senna. Sid Watkins, the man who tried to save him, was a close friend who led two safety revolutions within Formula 1.

www.bbc.com

 

[OzMike]

Round and round and round and round.,...................................

 

[Audax]

In more contemporary news: it is widely expected that Red Bull and Newey will confirm that Newey is leaving this weekend (possibly Thursday, once the Senna stuff is out of the way). Speculation is that Newey has negotiated an immediate release, so that his contractual 1 year non-compete clause (gardening leave) starts immediately and thus allows him to join a team during 2025 and work on their 2026 car. That team is now widely believed to be Ferrari.

 

[Flounce]

In more contemporary news: it is widely expected that Red Bull and Newey will confirm that Newey is leaving this weekend (possibly Thursday, once the Senna stuff is out of the way). Speculation is that Newey has negotiated an immediate release, so that his contractual 1 year non-compete clause (gardening leave) starts immediately and thus allows him to join a team during 2025 and work on their 2026 car. That team is now widely believed to be Ferrari.

If this comes about then Lewis has probably played another blinder, like when he left McLaren for Mercedes.

 

[A1X]

If Newey does go I wonder whether Max might be agitating to follow him out the door?

 

[Flounce]

If Newey does go I wonder whether Max might be agitating to follow him out the door?

Lewis and Max in a Ferrari, that would be some pairing with absolutely guaranteed fireworks. Make it happen.

 

[A1X]

Lewis and Max in a Ferrari, that would be some pairing with absolutely guaranteed fireworks. Make it happen.

Can't see Ferrari ditching Leclerc any time soon, I think it's more likely Max ends up at McLaren with Lando moving on (Mercedes?)