Europe: In or Out

[The Rivet]

Dropping (economic) science like Galileo dropped the orange

You know I quite like that...........

 

[The Rivet]

It would be nice to have a positive IN campaign. Bit negative at the moment

The 'In' campaign are being attacked quite a lot at the moment in popular media. Reuters and AFP seem a little more unbiased but time will tell.

 

[pastafarian]

A staggering weakness of the Out campaign is that you cannot tell the public what will happen when we leave. In offers stability and certainty.

Its not truly democratic though,and the way it is heading with a slow forward motion toward ever closer union means in reality means less democracy and less accountability in the future.
If we leave we will return to governing ourselves which we have been pretty good at over the years.......is there anything more important than democracy?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

If the UK were to leave the EU it would be the first time it has happened. It would be the first reverse of post-War European integration. This is a hammer blow to the European project which has sought to elevate what unites us and diminish what divides us. This is the project which has prevented war in the most combustible and blood-drenched region in human history. The aim was to make ourselves reliant on each other and in doing so make it too costly and too self-defeating to go to war with each other again.

Thanks for your comprehensive post, it's good to have a pro EU voice articulating a different perspective.

Yes obviously it would be the first time which in itself has no direct bearing on the strength or weakness of the west. The first reversal of post war integration could only be seen as a negative if you assume that integration and ever closer union strengthens the west. Recent history suggests otherwise the ongoing Eurozone crisis being the prime example. The 'elevate what unites us and diminish what divides us' is a nice soundbite but the European project is far more than that as you well know. It has it's own flag, foreign policy, currency, anthem and numerous other apparatus of control … a superstate in the making. This project was set up because the French and Germans didn't trust each other. I would suggest having a common enemy sitting on Europe's Eastern border and NATO were far more important factors in preventing War in Europe. Saying that I agree the EC did probably contribute to friendly relations although being dependant on trade to minimise conflict does not need a political institution element for this to be the case.

Brexit kicks at the foundation of this idea. The EU doesn't really know how to go into reverse and could unravel entirely if Britain leaves by choice. Moreover the UK is a major European power and leaving puts more power in the hands of Germany, this will lead to more resentment etc etc This is exactly what the enemies of the West want; Putin, who hates the idea of a united Europe and Islamic extremists. This is not even to mention the economic damage.

Brexit would be an expression of democratic will. The chances of the EU unravelling if we leave are minimal to non existent if anything a major block to ever closer Union would be removed. It is probably true that Germany would go from the dominant force in the EU to the very dominant force in the EU but see Cameron's current negotiations as an example of how little influence we have. Putin is already doing a fine job of destabilising the EU menacing it's eastern borders and adding to the chaos in Syria increasing the flow of refugees in our direction. Brexit will make little difference, continued friendly diplomatic relations with our European allies and membership of NATO is the key to countering his agenda. ISIS care if we leave the EU … really? We have covered the economic scenarios previously.

Also as you have mentioned the percentage of EU as global GDP is in decline, the power of individual European states is in decline. Alternatives to democracy exist and are powerful. We cannot take our values for granted, the world is becoming less Eurocentric and liberalism is not universal.

Your last paragraph is an argument for Brexit yes they are in decline so why shackle ourselves to a failing economic entity. I would also argue one of the biggest threats to our way of life/ liberal values is having little control of our borders and being part of a club that encouraged a million plus people to come to Europe who have very different values, many alien and incompatible with western liberal democracies. Millions more are on the way. Europe already have taken our values and security for granted with horrendous consequences that are probably irreversible. Time to leave and remain a strong independent nation that retains the power to uphold those cherished but neglected western values.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I'd hardly say that is cherry picking quotes. The point stands regardless; we would have to leave the Europol framework and it would be "more costly" and "much less effective" as an external partner.

Utter rubbish - Europol works with non-EU members. There is no evidence what so ever to suggest we would not be able to continue to work with Europol.

From their own website :

"More than 900 staff at Europol headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands, work closely with law enforcement agencies in the 28 EU Member States and in other non-EU partner states such as Australia, Canada, the USA and Norway."

You really do like to make things up don't you ?

 

[The Rivet]

Utter rubbish - Europol works with non-EU members. There is no evidence what so ever to suggest we would not be able to continue to work with Europol.

From their own website :

"More than 900 staff at Europol headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands, work closely with law enforcement agencies in the 28 EU Member States and in other non-EU partner states such as Australia, Canada, the USA and Norway."

You really do like to make things up don't you ?

Oh no, a previous post insists he is dropping facts. More like manure.

 

[The Rivet]

Thanks for your comprehensive post, it's good to have a pro EU voice articulating a different perspective.

Yes obviously it would be the first time which in itself has no direct bearing on the strength or weakness of the west. The first reversal of post war integration could only be seen as a negative if you assume that integration and ever closer union strengthens the west. Recent history suggests otherwise the ongoing Eurozone crisis being the prime example. The 'elevate what unites us and diminish what divides us' is a nice soundbite but the European project is far more than that as you well know. It has it's own flag, foreign policy, currency, anthem and numerous other apparatus of control … a superstate in the making. This project was set up because the French and Germans didn't trust each other. I would suggest having a common enemy sitting on Europe's Eastern border and NATO were far more important factors in preventing War in Europe. Saying that I agree the EC did probably contribute to friendly relations although being dependant on trade to minimise conflict does not need a political institution element for this to be the case.



Brexit would be an expression of democratic will. The chances of the EU unravelling if we leave are minimal to non existent if anything a major block to ever closer Union would be removed. It is probably true that Germany would go from the dominant force in the EU to the very dominant force in the EU but see Cameron's current negotiations as an example of how little influence we have. Putin is already doing a fine job of destabilising the EU menacing it's eastern borders and adding to the chaos in Syria increasing the flow of refugees in our direction. Brexit will make little difference, continued friendly diplomatic relations with our European allies and membership of NATO is the key to countering his agenda. ISIS care if we leave the EU … really? We have covered the economic scenarios previously.



Your last paragraph is an argument for Brexit yes they are in decline so why shackle ourselves to a failing economic entity. I would also argue one of the biggest threats to our way of life/ liberal values is having little control of our borders and being part of a club that encouraged a million plus people to come to Europe who have very different values, many alien and incompatible with western liberal democracies. Millions more are on the way. Europe already have taken our values and security for granted with horrendous consequences that are probably irreversible. Time to leave and remain a strong independent nation that retains the power to uphold those cherished but neglected western values.

JC you have such a silver tongue (or keyboard fingers)! Thank god you said it and I didn't have to bother thinking of saying it. Nice one.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

JC you have such a silver tongue (or keyboard fingers)! Thank god you said it and I didn't have to bother thinking of saying it. Nice one.

That's me done for the week I'm afraid. I have a one serious post to fifty frivolous rubbish ones quota to meet.

 

[Soulman]

Utter rubbish - Europol works with non-EU members. There is no evidence what so ever to suggest we would not be able to continue to work with Europol.

From their own website :

"More than 900 staff at Europol headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands, work closely with law enforcement agencies in the 28 EU Member States and in other non-EU partner states such as Australia, Canada, the USA and Norway."

You really do like to make things up don't you ?

Some would like to think that if we leave the EU then we would become outcasts. Well 65% imports as opposed to 35% exports to the EU seems that others would be the losers.
I wonder if these other EU countries that do not want us to leave are worried for themselves, no more 55M a day, no more cash injections to prop up those countries struggling in the EU......do people really think that all the Aldi stores that are due to be built, plus all our Utilities companies mainly owned by Germans and French are going to pull out. I believe it is in other countries interests that we stay in, keep quiet and keep taking it up the rectum.

 

[looney]

A staggering weakness of the Out campaign is that you cannot tell the public what will happen when we leave. In offers stability and certainty.

You obviously are not paying attention to the debate then. Sovereignty is tailoring policies to anations needs in the broadest sense. Now you may not agree with it but I'm not bothering to debate someone who cant grasp the basic stuff.

stability and certainty? In what universe? Begone fool.

 

[The Rivet]

That's me done for the week I'm afraid. I have a one serious post to fifty frivolous rubbish ones quota to meet.

Looking to re-open the poll vote next Monday. See ya then......

 

[Westdene Seagull]

A staggering weakness of the Out campaign is that you cannot tell the public what will happen when we leave. In offers stability and certainty.

The out campaign cannot say for a fact what will happen to the UK economy and economic growth when we leave. All the available data indicates economic contraction on both sides of the channel. I'm waiting for Out facts based on evidence, I have none.

And equally nor can the IN campaign but you seem to over look that. You claim we'll have to leave Europol - care to provide the evidence ? Care to provide the facts around what will happen to the UK whilst the Eurozone becomes politically and financially one ? And I mean with evidence ( which of course you can't as neither side can ). You, me, NSC nor the politicians can predict what will be the reality of either case but the IN camp seem hell bent of scaring people into voting in - you only need to look at Cameron's utterly bollocks suggestion around the Calais camps ( something the French have refuted ) to see how desperate the IN camp are to scare people to vote for the status quo.

 

[5ways]

Thanks for your comprehensive post, it's good to have a pro EU voice articulating a different perspective....

A few things, Putin would love Brexit because it weakens the EU's ability to stand up to him in Syria and Ukraine. It is a lovely distraction for him. I think it does matter in terms of European and Middle Eastern geopolitics.

When I talk about ISIS etc I mean ideologically more than physical security. They see the West as one big target. After the Paris attacks Cameron said words to the effect of an attack on France is an attack on us, our "brothers and sisters". It would give our enemies a big boost.

In terms of shackling ourselves to these declining powers, we too are in relative decline (and have been since post- WW1). And what is at stake is our way of doing business - democratic, capitalist, more-or-less free trade types. Those who have not had the same historical experience as the Western (colonial) powers take a rather different view. Sticking together is about amplifying our way of doing business and strengthening it. Demographics are not in our favour we have to adapt to a less Western world, we are able to do that better together. Yes this means have some state capabilities, a currency, an anthem and so on - it needs the transparency that should go with it. And a border. To achieve this we need to engage with it, the referendum debate might do this which is a good thing, and a reason why I disagree with Herr Tubthumper who opposes referenda as a form of governance.

I do think there is a threat that the EU could unravel following Brexit. Donald Tusk said just today the risk of brake-up is real "what is broken cannot be mended". This would have a plethora of negative consequences. http://www.theguardian.com/politics...up-is-real-tusk-warns-ahead-of-crucial-summit.

Can't argue about the border point, the EU needs one. See http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10...-nation-on-earth-sweden-syria-refugee-europe/

 

[5ways]

Utter rubbish - Europol works with non-EU members. There is no evidence what so ever to suggest we would not be able to continue to work with Europol.

From their own website :

"More than 900 staff at Europol headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands, work closely with law enforcement agencies in the 28 EU Member States and in other non-EU partner states such as Australia, Canada, the USA and Norway."

You really do like to make things up don't you ?

No, I like quoting people though. The Director of Europol said we would have to leave the Europol system and rejoin as one of these non-EU partners. This will be "more costly" and "much less effective."

 

[Soulman]

A few things, Putin would love Brexit because it weakens the EU's ability to stand up to him in Syria and Ukraine. It is a lovely distraction for him. I think it does matter in terms of European and Middle Eastern geopolitics

/QUOTE]

Perhaps worry more about other Arab nations as opposed to Putin. I don't believe that us leaving would weaken the EU or our ability (like the USA who are not in the EU) to stand up to Putin if needed.
This is more worrying atm.

"Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, Joint attack on Russian, Syrian and Kurdish forces begins"
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/0...-on-russian-syrian-and-kurdish-forces-begins/

 

[Soulman]

Seems like other EU countries are not happy either. I would like the EU referendum put back to October, i feel much will have changed by then. June is too soon.

Anti-migrant force builds in Europe, hurting Merkel's quest


ARSAW, Poland (AP) -- So where should the next impenetrable razor-wire border fence in Europe be built?

Hungary's right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban thinks he knows the best place - on Macedonia's and Bulgaria's borders with Greece - smack along the main immigration route from the Middle East to Western Europe. He says it's necessary because "Greece can't defend Europe from the south" against the large numbers of refugees pouring in, mainly from Syria and Iraq.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-15-07-41-13

 

[melias shoes]

We never joined what is now the EU, we joined an EEC but, were lied to and sold out by our politicians starting with Ted Heath (may he rest in perpetual turmoil). Before that we did pretty well on our own for millennia (give or take a bump 'n' grind or two) and by the way peace reigned because of the UN not the EU!

Agree with you but at the time it wasn't the EEC but a Common Market. It became the EEC and then their actual goal. The European Union.

 

[melias shoes]

Looking to re-open the poll vote next Monday. See ya then......

Don't give an 'undecided' option this time. Straight forward in or out.

 

[GT49er]

The out campaign cannot say for a fact what will happen to the UK economy and economic growth when we leave.

The in campaign cannot say for a fact what will happen to the UK economy and economic growth if we stay (there is, of course, a plethora of lies, damned lies, and statistics!)

I wonder what the 'Inners' will do if Cameron's 'reforms' turn out to be a complete load of shite, and his negotiations an abject failure..................................

 

[cunning fergus]

Man i'm dropping facts all the time. The percentage of UK biz with Europe, the number of jobs dependent on Europe, the size of UK economy compared to EU and so on. For a fact the UK will have to leave Europol, for a fact the UK's friends and allies want us to stay in Europe.

When Cameron lays out his final agreement with the EU Commission I will have more facts on hand. I can point to really existing economic facts because it is based on reality right now. The out campaign cannot say for a fact what will happen to the UK economy and economic growth when we leave. All the available data indicates economic contraction on both sides of the channel. I'm waiting for Out facts based on evidence, I have none.

You keep on with the vagaries of out, but what about the vagaries of in?

Will the accession of Turkey and Ukraine be positive for the EU? You worry about Putin, yet what do you expect when the EU is pushing hard up to Russia's long held circle of influence, it's only like what the USSR did in Cuba, and that policy got as close to WW3 as we have probably got.

What about the solution to the euro crisis? Will the EZ countries electorates just roll over and cede fiscal sovereignty to the ECB? Will the Germans just transfer their money to the poor EU countries without a bye-your-leave?

What happens to those outside the EZ if this happens, there will be a de facto 2 speed EU then, and policy will be dictated by the EZ bloc, we could essentially end up being out by staying in?

You can no more guarantee stability by staying in as coming out. What we do know though is if we are out we will have control of our destiny. That is the point, can we cope better by being in control or surrendering it to unelected bureaucrats.

Past performance would indicate we are better out.