[Politics] Donald Trump, US President

[Triggaaar]

Sadly, he knows exactly what he's doing, and exactly what he wants his grubby tiny hands on

I disagree. I don't think he has much of a grasp on the war in Europe, or what the consequences of his actions will be.

 

[Insel affe]

The pillars of democracy, congress, the supreme court, Batman??

Surely the worlds greatest democracy (sic) cannot be dismantled this easily?

Nailed on he would not be content with four years, I suggested he would change the constitution to remain in power to our American family said he would not dare.....

Right'O

He will NOT relinquish power in four years and walk away....

 

[Triggaaar]

TLDR version, if Trump says it’s legal it now is and nobody is allowed to challenge this

Presumably that itself will be challenged? I assume that him signing it, doesn't make it law?

Otherwise any president at any time could just sign something saying 'right, what I say goes'.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

And they haven’t even started talks yet. Putin will run rings round Trump when they do.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I took a step back while out with the dog this morning and thought about how mad this whole situation is. Trump served one term and was then kicked out and subsequently faced trials, got handed guilty verdicts, was rebuked for the whole 'rigged election' nonsense and essentially ostracised from politics.

Then, he decides he's making a comeback, but says it's going to be different, that he doesn't know anything about Project 2025 (essentially what's happening now) and promises to fix all of America's problems – one of the major ones being bringing down the price of "groceries". And people swallow it hook, line and sinker. After EVERYTHING that went before and all the lies, deception, involvement in January 6th, insults, obviously not giving a shit about anyone apart from himself, the people of the USA thought NOW was the time that he deserved another shot at it. It's absolutely insane. Not surprising, like, but insane.

Ah well, at least the immigrants aren't "eating the cats" and "eating the dogs" anymore and those pesky drones from "CHIIIIINA" have been dealt with...

Twat.

 

[Triggaaar]

And they haven’t even started talks yet. Putin will run rings round Trump when they do.

Putin already has Trump spouting Russian propaganda. The next question is what Trump thinks he can do with that. He's not going to convince Ukraine or the rest of Europe to give up, so what's his plan?

 

[rippleman]

Presumably that itself will be challenged? I assume that him signing it, doesn't make it law?

Otherwise any president at any time could just sign something saying 'right, what I say goes'.

Well, it kind of does.

Congress can override an EO (like it has the balls to do that) but the President still retains a veto.

The President can effectively rule by EO without the Senate or Congress. A dictatorship if you like.

What are executive orders? The powerful tool used by US presidents

A US leader can weigh in on anything affecting federal government by issuing their own directions.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Greg Bobkin]

And they haven’t even started talks yet. Putin will run rings round Trump when they do.

I think from my limited reading of things yesterday, I think the 'talks' are more about making money than saving lives through no conflict. Essentially blaming Ukraine for starting the war was pathetic. And then Lavrov says that he (a Russian) won't allow NATO troops in Ukraine (not his country). Who the fack do these people think they are?

 

[beorhthelm]

And they haven’t even started talks yet. Putin will run rings round Trump when they do.

they've essentially had some talks on re-establishing diplomatic links. it's been presented as being wholly about Ukraine. i'm not sure who's going to run anything when they get to that, imo Trump will be frustrated by Putin's intransigence and will start lashing out when a deal cant be done.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well, it kind of does.

Congress can override an EO (like it has the balls to do that) but the President still retains a veto.

But that Veto can be overridden by Congress with a two thirds vote.

Also, the judicial branch can cancel an executive order if it decides the order is unconstitutional.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I don't think there are many other ways to deal with such a massive and varied thing as Europe. They are outmanoeuvred by these other nations because they have dictators running things for a lifetime. That kind of consistency lets you play really, really long games. This is all very well known in game theory. China for example has been playing the long game for decades. Take over production of all raw materials by outpricing everyone, using your overwhelming 'humans on low pay' advantage. This is a temporary advantage and he knows it. But the playbook on this part is simple to describe *but incredibly hard to execute if you don't control a nation);

Dominate raw materials so everyone else goes out of business
Gain industry knowledge from everywhere you can, using every means possible (industrial espionage, bribery, blackmail, corruption, just good old honest education, etc)
Move up the value chain (beneficiation) so you start producing tools and products from the raw materials, now competing with the people who are buying raw materials from you
Out compete on price
Then out compete on value (quality vs value)


And then there are their soft power plays. They've been running their 'belt and road' initiative for over a decade, and spent over a trillion dollars building infrastructure in other nations around the world.

They are so far ahead that it's shocking. Most European politicians know this, but it's very much a wicked problem, and ultimately someone else's issue.

Let's hope China don't have expansion aspirations in their 100-year plan.

Indeed. You have explained part of the mechanism how China has outmaneuvered Europe.

The creation of the EU is attributed as the main reason for no war in (western) Europe since WWI.
Another way of looking at it is a system with multiple checks and balances that makes war, any indeed any sort of military action almost impossible.
And a knock on effect of the entangled process of checks and balances is it makes it hard to initiate anything swiftly.
It is not a nimble bit of machinery

Anxiety over the flat-footed machine is how sensible people not only wanted us out of the EU, but wanted the EU destroyed.

I see that Trump is now pressuring Romania over Andrew Tate.
Romania is in the EU
Let's see how this one plays out.

I was and remain placidly in favour of the EU, by the way.
But it really needs to reform.
When we were in it we had the power and opportunity to effect change.
But we did nothing. Nothing at all. We did not engage.
Instead we bitched, moaned, sniped, threatened....
Allowed the situation to be weaponized by the worst sort of political grifters and chancers,
Then flounced.
Pathetic.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

they've essentially had some talks on re-establishing diplomatic links. it's been presented as being wholly about Ukraine. i'm not sure who's going to run anything when they get to that, imo Trump will be frustrated by Putin's intransigence and will start lashing out when a deal cant be done.

I am concerned that Trump has a very clear view of what the end game will be, and this allows for Putin keeping and militarizing all of the land stolen from Ukraine.

All he needs to say to his MAGA oaf support is 'look, I stopped the fighting'.

I am not sure he's looking for much at all from Putin, presently.

 

[Triggaaar]

I am concerned that Trump has a very clear view of what the end game will be, and this allows for Putin keeping and militarizing all of the land stolen from Ukraine.

All he needs to say to his MAGA oaf support is 'look, I stopped the fighting'.

But how does he stop the war when Europe don't agree, and we keep supplying Ukraine, and Ukraine keep fighting?

Ukraine themselves produce 2.5 million drones, which will keep bombing Russia.

 

[BadFish]

it's

I took a step back while out with the dog this morning and thought about how mad this whole situation is. Trump served one term and was then kicked out and subsequently faced trials, got handed guilty verdicts, was rebuked for the whole 'rigged election' nonsense and essentially ostracised from politics.

Then, he decides he's making a comeback, but says it's going to be different, that he doesn't know anything about Project 2025 (essentially what's happening now) and promises to fix all of America's problems – one of the major ones being bringing down the price of "groceries". And people swallow it hook, line and sinker. After EVERYTHING that went before and all the lies, deception, involvement in January 6th, insults, obviously not giving a shit about anyone apart from himself, the people of the USA thought NOW was the time that he deserved another shot at it. It's absolutely insane. Not surprising, like, but insane.

Ah well, at least the immigrants aren't "eating the cats" and "eating the dogs" anymore and those pesky drones from "CHIIIIINA" have been dealt with...

Twat.

Its mad isnt it. Even on these threads i have given up expecting his supporters on here to defend or rubbish the things we are discussing. But we get a laughing reaction and cherry picked responses.

i guess it's worse than we thought, or they can't defend the indefensible.

scary times.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I took a step back while out with the dog this morning and thought about how mad this whole situation is. Trump served one term and was then kicked out and subsequently faced trials, got handed guilty verdicts, was rebuked for the whole 'rigged election' nonsense and essentially ostracised from politics.

Then, he decides he's making a comeback, but says it's going to be different, that he doesn't know anything about Project 2025 (essentially what's happening now) and promises to fix all of America's problems – one of the major ones being bringing down the price of "groceries". And people swallow it hook, line and sinker. After EVERYTHING that went before and all the lies, deception, involvement in January 6th, insults, obviously not giving a shit about anyone apart from himself, the people of the USA thought NOW was the time that he deserved another shot at it. It's absolutely insane. Not surprising, like, but insane.

Ah well, at least the immigrants aren't "eating the cats" and "eating the dogs" anymore and those pesky drones from "CHIIIIINA" have been dealt with...

Twat.

Sadly, like when the UK had Thatcher and later 'Call Me' Dave, and then Boris the Liar running the show, we had a shit-poor opposition.
In the 80s Labour was awash with Militant whose slogan was "No compromise with the electorate"
Then we had Momentum (Militant in disguise) and their hopeless placeman, the dithering and ludicrous Corbyn.

America has been in a similar boat, with aging crony Democrats running the party for decades, culminating in senile Sleepy Joe,
followed, as Joe's dribbling became to clear to hide, by a last-minute substitute with less charisma than Rachel from accounts.

To win, Trump needed tens of millions to say "f*** the Democrats. Let's strap in and enjoy a mad ride for 4 years".
Until these Americans feel materially more poor they will shrug off Trump's nonsense, especially his foreign policy adventures.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Sadly, like when the UK had Thatcher and later 'Call Me' Dave, and then Boris the Liar running the show, we had a shit-poor opposition.
In the 80s Labour was awash with Militant whose slogan was "No compromise with the electorate"
Then we had Momentum (Militant in disguise) and their hopeless placeman, the dithering and ludicrous Corbyn.

America has been in a similar boat, with aging crony Democrats running the party for decades, culminating in senile Sleepy Joe,
followed, as Joe's dribbling became to clear to hide, by a last-minute substitute with less charisma than Rachel from accounts.

To win, Trump needed tens of millions to say "f*** the Democrats. Let's strap in and enjoy a mad ride for 4 years".
Until these Americans feel materially more poor they will shrug off Trump's nonsense, especially his foreign policy adventures.

The problem in America was apathy.
74 million voted for Harris, 79 million for Trump and 84 million didn’t vote at all.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

But how does he stop the war when Europe don't agree, and we keep supplying Ukraine, and Ukraine keep fighting?

Ukraine themselves produce 2.5 million drones, which will keep bombing Russia.

That's a good point.

Starmer was talking about British troops on the ground, yesterday.
I didn't think too much about that as I was busy.
Now you have asked your sensible questions....

I assume that if Trump decides Putin can keep what he stole then Starmer will have to decide if we should effectively go to war with Russia.
I can't see it happening myself.
Starmer could step back and 'simply' keep arming Ukraine from a distance, like now.
That might keep the war going for longer.
But to do this Starmer would be acting against Trump's wishes.
So Trump could (would?) start a trade war with the UK.

Would the rest of the EU join in with Starmer?
They would probably have to have a meeting to discuss it.
In 2026, in Davos.

The other scenario is Trump says 'this is how it will be, the UK and others must stop arming Ukraine now'.
And we stop.

The scenario that seems to be favoured on NSC at the moment, however, is that Trump is an idiot, Putin will mess him about,
and Trump will flounce.....leaving Starmer (and others in the EU perhaps) to arm Ukraine without fear of US sanctions.
To me this seems the least likely scenario, but I admit that I know nothing about political brinkmanship.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The problem in America was apathy.
74 million voted for Harris, 79 million for Trump and 84 million didn’t vote at all.

I am inclined to see the problem as the 79 million who voted for Trump, and the 163 million who did not vote for Harris.
If by apathy you mean insufficiently persuaded by Harris to bother backing her against Trump, then apathy it was indeed.

 

[RyFish]

The problem in America was apathy.
74 million voted for Harris, 79 million for Trump and 84 million didn’t vote at all.

It was 75m and 77m - quite close - but your point clearly stands

 

[Triggaaar]

That's a good point.

Starmer was talking about British troops on the ground, yesterday.
I didn't think too much about that as I was busy.
Now you have asked your sensible questions....

I assume that if Trump decides Putin can keep what he stole then Starmer will have to decide if we should effectively go to war with Russia.

No, that's not what's happening. Starmer was only talking about after the war has ended. The war in nowhere near ending, so no British troops (or French, Italian, Polish, German etc) can be deployed.

Worst case scenario right now is that Trump withdraws support from Ukraine and removes sanctions from Russia (I can't see any logic for the latter), but Europe will continue to support Ukraine and the war will continue. Russia are not making progress on the battlefield.

Starmer could step back and 'simply' keep arming Ukraine from a distance, like now.

That's not stepping back, that is already the plan.

That might keep the war going for longer.

Might? It will definitely keep going, Russia are not making great inroads in Ukraine, they can't even take Kursk back.

But to do this Starmer would be acting against Trump's wishes.
So Trump could (would?) start a trade war with the UK.

It would be Trump acting against the entire free world. Does America want a trade war with all of its allies?

Would the rest of the EU join in with Starmer?

The rest of the EU are already with Starmer. You're not following this Harry.

The other scenario is Trump says 'this is how it will be, the UK and others must stop arming Ukraine now'.
And we stop.

Not going to happen. It's not for the US to dictate to the UK and EU how to defend Europe. If we stopped arming Ukraine, Russia would take the whole of Ukraine, and then they'd go for the Baltics, Moldova, Romania, etc. You think Europe are going to stand by and let that happen? Don't be daft.

The scenario that seems to be favoured on NSC at the moment, however, is that Trump is an idiot, Putin will mess him about,
and Trump will flounce.....leaving Starmer (and others in the EU perhaps) to arm Ukraine without fear of US sanctions.

It's not 'perhaps' others in the EU, the others in the EU will definitely keep supporting Ukraine. The alternative is war all across Europe.