[Politics] Donald Trump, US President Elect 2025

[sparkie]

As the day goes on I am getting more and more worried that the Putin/Trump ticket will win this.

I am dreading the results coming through.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.

But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.

Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.

I guess that's my point, because I don't.

 

[Mellotron]

But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability

My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.

 

[schmunk]

But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.

But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.

Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.

Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.

However:

Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*

Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated





* disregarding my post above. Ahem.

 

[pb21]

What I meant was that I can't understand how people can take odds seriously when they fluctuate massively on a seemingly daily basis.

Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.

And

 

[Bozza]

My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.

What is the most reliable indicator of outcome then?

Edit: And, what is that most reliable indicator of outcome currently stating as the probability of each outcome happening?

 

[Bozza]

Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.

However:

Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*

Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated





* disregarding my post above. Ahem.

I'm not talking about bookies, but exchanges which are a marketplace open to all. The only thing that moves the market are the participants.

 

[nicko31]

Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.

View attachment 191874

Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?

What I do know is if you can move the markets and things go the other way there's a lot of money to be made

Meanwhile trending on X #harriswalz2024inalandslide

Things are nuts...

 

[aftershavedave]

Here's a betting cert: open another US Election thread and the original "owner" will have it closed within a couple of hours. NSC is a bizarre place these days, Oh for the days of sandwiches

 

[astralavi]

Win or lose, Tumps Fascist tendencies (or not) will soon be shown

 

[Zeberdi]

Democratic volunteers from NYC head to Penn to help get out the vote -my cousins and nephew joining them

 

[BBassic]

Here's a betting cert: open another US Election thread and the original "owner" will have it closed within a couple of hours. NSC is a bizarre place these days, Oh for the days of sandwiches

It's funny the only time I even notice there's been a thread merge is when you pop up whining about it

 

[Mellotron]

What is the most reliable indicator of outcome then?

Edit: And, what is that most reliable indicator of outcome currently stating as the probability of each outcome happening?

I would argue turnout levels, turnout demographics (age, sex, previous affiliation etc) and things that are actual cold hard facts are better to be extrapolated from than some of Elon Musk's rich mates chucking £4m on specifically to help push a narrative.

To answer the second question, it's very difficult but I would put wide scale poll of polls as MORE reliable than betting, which as mentioned above is much more open to abuse for nefarious means (IMO).

Also, a poll is "What will you do yourself?" meanwhile betting is "what do you think will happen collectively?".

 

[US Seagull]

I did a democracy

 

[pb21]

Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?

What I do know is if you can move the markets and things go the other way there's a lot of money to be made

Meanwhile trending on X #harriswalz2024inalandslide

Things are nuts...

Meme stocks are a different kettle of fish though, and do fluctuate much more.

 

[US Seagull]

I thought like us you put an X against the candidate you want to win no? You don’t need luck surely?

Nope. You are wrong.

You have to fill in bubbles on a FIVE PAGE ballot with 31 separate questions.

 

[Chicken Run]

Nope. You are wrong.

You have to fill in bubbles on a FIVE PAGE ballot with 31 separate questions.

Ahh that makes sense, now i know why you asked for luck seems complicated

 

[um bongo molongo]

The thing many commentators miss in these elections - both sides of the pond - is that people are often voting AGAINST something rather than FOR something. The reason BoJo did so well is that Labour somehow managed to field an even worse leader. Starmer won because the Tories were a complete car crash. A lot of Americans detested Hilary Clinton. My worry in this instance is that many Americans are unhappy with the Biden administration/recent years of Democrat leadership, particularly the economy, and that’s why Trump will win.

 

[beorhthelm]

Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.

However:

Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*

Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated





* disregarding my post above. Ahem.

though US do not have access to betting that we assume in land of the actual free. in this case the betting markets are wide open to outside influence, not indicative of public.

 

[Triggaaar]

Or else. Can you not see the threat?

Yes I can, but I don't take the threat seriously. And countries in NATO should pay the required amount.