[Politics] Donald Trump, US President Elect 2025

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm not sure why people place SO much faith, if you can call it that, in betting markets that fluctuate so wildly (as everyone knows).

I'm also not sure why so many people believe stuff that Trump says when he has a long history of talking shit. On the subject of his plan to kick out the "20-25 million" illegal immigrants (or, as Trump would put it, people from insane asylums), there was a great deep-dive by John Oliver last week about why his plan is either unworkable or would cost the country trillions and severely damage the economy. But people lap up the veiled (or sometimes not so veiled) racism like it was water in a desert.

I genuinely think he'll hate doing the job. The rallies are what gets him going. Doing the job of president? Not so much. Mainly because there's not much in it for him!

He won't do the job. He will quickly pardon himself from all the charges he's now facing, and will appoint a few more judges that will cement his inviolate security, then he will just prat around till he's forced out of office (which he won't be because his party will be happy to do what they like while he occasionally comments favourably; it is possible to be almost completely nonfunctioning and 'run' America; see Ronald Reagan).

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

So one thing on the most recent polls. I would assume, since early voting has started, most (all?) pollers are starting their polls with "have you voted yet?". If you answer "yes" they have to say "thank you" and leave it at that. They don't want to be releasing an exit poll before the polls have even opened (for in-person voting) let alone closed. Early exit polling was a huge problem back in 2000 when some outlets were calling Florida before polls had even closed in the panhandle (which had a later poll closing time).

So that makes me think, if (and I don't know if this is the case), early voting has broken heavily for Harris, then the only people left to poll are naturally slanted to Trump. Which is to say, you'd expect the pre-election polls to tighten.

Well, no, they report the figures from those who have already voted, and include within the poll. They have to if the poll is to make any sense.

More interestingly, there was a Colorado poll in the last week that was Harris +8, not great, but then they went back quite soon after publishing and redid their likely voter screen based on the responses of those that had already voted, and as a result changed the top line to Harris +14

 

[US Seagull]

Alright. Heading out to vote now. I'm hoping the "vote before work" crowd has cleared out.

Wish me luck...

 

[Pavilionaire]

Yeah of all the shit that nasty narcissist had come out with, that one I'm ok with. He was just telling people to pay their share.

Let's revisit Trump's actual quote, which was in response to being asked if the USA would protect countries from -specifically - Russian aggression, countries that 'didn't pay' into NATO:

"No, I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want, you gotta pay, you gotta pay your bill".

So Trump wasn't "just telling people to pay their share", he was encouraging Russia to "do whatever the hell they want". According to NATO data as at July 2023 those paying under 2% included France, Germany, Italy, Spain, plus countries within Russia's orbit like Turkey, Czechia, Bulgaria.

 

[jackanada]

The way I see it - the choice is like a choice between a plate of bland, unseasoned, overcooked plain chicken, and an ACTUAL BOWL OF SHIT. ACTUAL FAECES.

Just eat the f***ing chicken, stop complaining it's not perfect, otherwise you will be eating actual excrement. Just let's all agree to avoid the shit, and we'll figure out about the chicken not being great later.

I see it more as you've got to eat a shit sandwich, but you can choose what shit goes in it.
While kamala shit is a somewhat unknown factor let's say its rabbit droppings at best dog shit at worst.
Trump shit is at best cat shit, and probably a cat with syphilis, piles and c difficile that's been fed a diet of skunk glands marinated in durian.
It might be off-putting but when you're choking down the shit sandwich you're going to wish you voted dog.

 

[Littlemo]

I chucked £13 on Harris winning the popular vote but Trump winning the election. I am hoping that I’ve just flushed £13 down the toilet!

 

[Insel affe]

Let's revisit Trump's actual quote, which was in response to being asked if the USA would protect countries from -specifically - Russian aggression, countries that 'didn't pay' into NATO:

"No, I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want, you gotta pay, you gotta pay your bill".

seems reasonable....

I mean what could possibly go wrong....

 

[jcdenton08]

Kick off 22:40 GMT (BBC One), other broadcasters are available.

The two Presidential nominees shown here in a 2024 rap battle in Dayton, Ohio, where the disses got sick.

It’s Kamala Harris, it’s Donald Trump… and it’s LIVE!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I've got a feeling about this one

 

[Chicken Run]

Alright. Heading out to vote now.

Wish me luck...

I thought like us you put an X against the candidate you want to win no? You don’t need luck surely?

 

[Insel affe]

I have got a sneaky feeling this could go into extra time...
Strong chance of a bit hooliganism if the result does not go the way of team orange.

 

[Pevenseagull]

 

[Zeberdi]

I thought like us you put an X against the candidate you want to win no? You don’t need luck surely?

He probably means getting through all the snipers, body searchers and Proud Boys

 

[Chicken Run]

Kick off 22:40 GMT (BBC One), other broadcasters are available.

View attachment 191863
View attachment 191864
The two Presidential nominees shown here in a 2024 rap battle in Dayton, Ohio, where the disses got sick.

It’s Kamala Harris, it’s Donald Trump… and it’s LIVE!

Now i’m confused, now there’s two matchday threads both with polls Have you got @Zeberdi or his thread on ignore?

 

[WhingForPresident]

There's going to be an almighty fall-out no matter which way it goes.

I think Trump will get in and carnage will ensue both on the streets and in the White House, but I know bugger all so my opinion isn't worth much.

 

[Triggaaar]

I thought like us you put an X against the candidate you want to win no? You don’t need luck surely?

I thought you cross out the one you don't want?

 

[Zeberdi]

Now i’m confused, now there’s two matchday threads both with polls Have you got @Zeberdi or his thread on ignore?

Not as far as I know - He was responding to my posts a few days ago!

 

[jcdenton08]

Now i’m confused, now there’s two matchday threads both with polls Have you got @Zeberdi or his thread on ignore?

Whoops! Sorry, yes I have. My mistake!

 

[Chicken Run]

Not as far as I know - He was responding to my posts a few days ago!

Then i don’t get why there are now two threads , merge please

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Sadly the bookies - on this side of the pond at least - have Trump odds-on to win with the odds shortening