[Politics] Do you believe we are going to leave the EU on October 31st

[Pavilionaire]

Leadership election, then summer recess, then party conference season and we're then into October itself - there isn't enough time to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement we have.

All this points to Boris becoming leader, entering into a pact with Farage and The Brexit Party, threatening the EU that he is genuinely prepared to leave with No Deal, the EU then saying OK on you go, then Boris holding a General Election.

If he wins he'll have to leave the EU. If he loses then there will be a Second Referendum.

The real worry for Remainers is not Boris - it is Corbyn.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

More accurately, he'll do what it has to do to protect the country from dictatorship. Shutting down parliament to get your own agenda through is dictating, especially when the commons has already voted that no-deal will not be allowed because it of the damage it would do to the economy.

I agree that shutting down parliament would be the wrong thing to do - however parliament has a recent record of acting in an undemocratic manner. With 406 out of 648 constituencies voting to leave, the majority of people (who bothered to vote) voting leave, yet parliament blocking both May's deal, and a no-deal.

I'm not saying I voted to leave, but our democracy is under threat if we d not leave the EU.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I agree that shutting down parliament would be the wrong thing to do - however parliament has a recent record of acting in an undemocratic manner. With 406 out of 648 constituencies voting to leave, the majority of people (who bothered to vote) voting leave, yet parliament blocking both May's deal, and a no-deal.

I'm not saying I voted to leave, but our democracy is under threat if we d not leave the EU.

Our democracy would be finished if Raab prorouged parliament though. You'd effectively have The Queen and a three year old referendum result deciding how we ran everything, including things that have nothing to do with Brexit but need a functioning parliament to pass bills on. Budgets. Early Days Motions. Other bits of the Tory manifesto they were elected on that everyone seems to have forgotten about, as if Brexit is the ONLY thing to decide in a democracy. It's not. There are arguably more important things falling by the wayside because of this hysterical extremism on both sides of Brexit.

Plus it was Brexiteers such as the ERG and the Ulster Unionists who voted against May's deal, despite the fact they represent leave voting constituencies.

 

[BensGrandad]

We will if Corbyn forgets his communist roots and goes with what the nations voters want and tells his MPs to do the same.

 

[taz]

Considering there is already a 500 page document and both sides can agree on 495 of those pages, I'm confident that both sides can find away around the northern Ireland part which is the only part not acceptable to the uk, if the EU want to be so intransigent and unwilling to try a find away around this problem we leave with no deal on the 31st of October

 

[WATFORD zero]

Considering there is already a 500 page document and both sides can agree on 495 of those pages, I'm confident that both sides can find away around the northern Ireland part which is the only part not acceptable to the uk, if the EU want to be so intransigent and unwilling to try a find away around this problem we leave with no deal on the 31st of October

But no one from any side has even come up with a suggestion of a way around 'this problem' in 3 years. It may only be 5 pages from 500 but it is, and has always been critical to any solution.

 

[WATFORD zero]

You're assuming, incorrectly, that something needs to be put before Parliament to enable us to leave. MPs have aready agreed to us leaving. In the most simplistic terms the new PM could just run down the clock.

I wasn't assuming that, but you are correct that we could just run down the clock and leave with 'no deal'.

But then we would have no border or Customs on the NI/Ireland border.

That would mean that we have granted the EU full access to all Goods, Services and People in all British markets (similar to currently).

Under WTO Most Preferred Nation (MPN) rules that we would be operating however, that means that we have also granted the Whole World free access to all Goods, Services and People in all British markets (somewhat different to the current situation).

It would be an 'interesting' approach to International Trade, something that no other country in the world has ever done

That is why I personally don't think we will just run down the clock and leave.

But back to the question, which of

Johnson
Hunt
Stewart
Gove
Raab
Javid

do you think would get us out by Oct 31st (by running down the clock or any other means ?)

 

[WATFORD zero]

Our democracy would be finished if Raab prorouged parliament though. You'd effectively have The Queen and a three year old referendum result deciding how we ran everything, including things that have nothing to do with Brexit but need a functioning parliament to pass bills on. Budgets. Early Days Motions. Other bits of the Tory manifesto they were elected on that everyone seems to have forgotten about, as if Brexit is the ONLY thing to decide in a democracy. It's not. There are arguably more important things falling by the wayside because of this hysterical extremism on both sides of Brexit.

Plus it was Brexiteers such as the ERG and the Ulster Unionists who voted against May's deal, despite the fact they represent leave voting constituencies.

See, even you're joining in now

Play nicely

*edit* It is good to actually see some discussion of relevant points without insults, but like yourself, I'm not convinced it will last

 

[nicko31]

Our democracy would be finished if Raab prorouged parliament though. You'd effectively have The Queen and a three year old referendum result deciding how we ran everything, including things that have nothing to do with Brexit but need a functioning parliament to pass bills on. Budgets. Early Days Motions. Other bits of the Tory manifesto they were elected on that everyone seems to have forgotten about, as if Brexit is the ONLY thing to decide in a democracy. It's not. There are arguably more important things falling by the wayside because of this hysterical extremism on both sides of Brexit.

Plus it was Brexiteers such as the ERG and the Ulster Unionists who voted against May's deal, despite the fact they represent leave voting constituencies.

Rory you should be out campaigning, NSC is no place for you....

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I agree that shutting down parliament would be the wrong thing to do - however parliament has a recent record of acting in an undemocratic manner. With 406 out of 648 constituencies voting to leave, the majority of people (who bothered to vote) voting leave, yet parliament blocking both May's deal, and a no-deal.

I'm not saying I voted to leave, but our democracy is under threat if we d not leave the EU.

We would be out now if it wasn’t for the ERG.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

My feeling is that we will leave, and with a deal. Boris will head back to Brussels and come back with some very minor changes to the current agreement, amounting to nothing more than semantics - but it will be dressed up as a big change, the backstop still there but renamed. Boris will thus come back as the hero standing up for British interests and the whole tories plus a few Labour will get the deal through, there might need to be a few giveaways to certain individuals to win their vote but this deal will pass.

Boris and Rees-Mogg have already voted for this deal once, don't forget. JRM will be in a Boris cabinet, and maybe Baker too. For the ERG its really about the look of the thing after all. DUP probably won't play ball but won't be needed.

The alternative for Boris is pushing the no deal line which is doomed to failure because Hammond will lead enough tories into seriously opposing it, and maybe even push them to the brink of vote of no confidence and election. A Hammond free from cabinet responsibility will be a thorn in Boris' side if Johnson goes away from his moderate roots and wants to be radical.

No, Boris will want this done, and done simply, so he can enjoy all the trappings of being PM without the hassle of having to deal with either eternal brexit or the serious work of rebuilding our economy after a no deal crash out.

May's deal will pass, and go down in the books as Boris' deal

 

[WATFORD zero]

My feeling is that we will leave, and with a deal. Boris will head back to Brussels and come back with some very minor changes to the current agreement, amounting to nothing more than semantics - but it will be dressed up as a big change, the backstop still there but renamed. Boris will thus come back as the hero standing up for British interests and the whole tories plus a few Labour will get the deal through, there might need to be a few giveaways to certain individuals to win their vote but this deal will pass.

Boris and Rees-Mogg have already voted for this deal once, don't forget. JRM will be in a Boris cabinet, and maybe Baker too. For the ERG its really about the look of the thing after all. DUP probably won't play ball but won't be needed.

The alternative for Boris is pushing the no deal line which is doomed to failure because Hammond will lead enough tories into seriously opposing it, and maybe even push them to the brink of vote of no confidence and election. A Hammond free from cabinet responsibility will be a thorn in Boris' side if Johnson goes away from his moderate roots and wants to be radical.

No, Boris will want this done, and done simply, so he can enjoy all the trappings of being PM without the hassle of having to deal with either eternal brexit or the serious work of rebuilding our economy after a no deal crash out.

May's deal will pass, and go down in the books as Boris' deal

But there is nobody for Boris to negotiate with as the EU have disbanded the negotiation team and are currently going through a series of internal appointments following the EU elections. Until these are complete, they can't put together a negotiating team even if they wanted to (and they don't.)

And can you guess when these new appointments will be in place - November

It's why I want Boris to win. If Stewart won, it would be the best chance of leaving on October 31st with TMs deal and, as a remainer, that's the last thing I want.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

But there is nobody for Boris to negotiate with as the EU have disbanded the negotiation team and are currently going through a series of internal appointments following the EU elections. Until these are complete, they can't put together a negotiating team even if they wanted to (and they don't.)

And can you guess when these new appointments will be in place - November

It will be a chat with Barnier Juncker and Tusk, the agreement will be literally unchanged other than inserting some latin proverbs and the pronouncements of some 14th century german scholar that 'prove' the backstop will definitely be replaced with a suitable alternative within 12 months and don't believe anyone else....

They'll all buy it, they're itching to have a reason to vote this through and move on...

 

[taz]

Yes there is a solution to the Irish border problem! technology and intelligents lead corporation, seize, consfiscate, return, and let the peoples of Ireland carry on with there lawful busines !

 

[Thunder Bolt]

It will be a chat with Barnier Juncker and Tusk, the agreement will be literally unchanged other than inserting some latin proverbs and the pronouncements of some 14th century german scholar that 'prove' the backstop will definitely be replaced with a suitable alternative within 12 months and don't believe anyone else....

They'll all buy it, they're itching to have a reason to vote this through and move on...

27 other countries have to agree as well. The Union part of the EU is very important to them.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Yes there is ! technology and intelligents lead corporation, seize, consfiscate, return, and let the peoples of Ireland carry on with there lawful busines !

Maybe you should tell Boris that you have the solution. I'm sure he would be grateful

Just a shame you didn't think of it in time to save TM

 

[The Clamp]

I don’t see how we could leave now as as no deal is no longer an option. However, I expect the worse so somehow. Boris will crash us out of the EU with no deal, wreck the UK and somehow still get even richer in the process. Somehow.

 

[A1X]

Too many things still in play to call IMHO. Tory leadership, potential Votes of Confidence, potential election being called, what Parliament will do around No Deal. Still too many things not settled to make a call.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

27 other countries have to agree as well. The Union part of the EU is very important to them.

They've already agreed to the Withdrawal agreement, so as it won't have changed it will be fine

 

[Thunder Bolt]

They've already agreed to the Withdrawal agreement, so as it won't have changed it will be fine

The Withdrawal Agreement protects Ireland. How is the backstop going to be changed or improved?