[Politics] Do you believe we are going to leave the EU on October 31st

[Kalimantan Gull]

I know we don't disagree but if there was anything possible the EU could have done for the UK PM to save a bit of face or put a different spin it would have already been been done by now. If a titbit wasn't thrown from the table for May it sure as hell won't be for Johnson.

Indeed, the EU may hold Boris personally responsible for Leave winning the Referendum and make life harder for him (and therefore the UK) than - say - Jeremy Hunt or Rory Stewart.

Johnson will be brilliant at spin - and if he wants this deal to pass, and the EU want this deal to pass, it will pass. They WILL give him the face-saver. Politics.

Its really just maths back in the UK parliament. Last time May's deal went for a vote it was defeated 344-286. Johnson, IDS and Rees-Mogg were among those voting for the deal. You need 30 MP's to flip, and 34 Tories voted against it. Nearly all of those were ERG who will come on board under a Johnson leadership - lets face it, several are likely to be in cabinet, like Priti Patel and Steve Baker.

A few Labour will probably switch as well. Boris will make sure anyone who might vote for the deal will get enough inducements to do so.

The Brexit deal has so far been brought down by the DUP and the ERG. Next time the DUP won't matter (and Boris could win their votes) and the ERG will come in line. The only way to defeat it now in parliament is by Remainers, but I don't see it, unfortunately. Grieve will probably quit the Tories, Justine Greening maybe too, but are there enough there? One of the Remainer Tories who voted against the deal is Boris' brother Jo! He'll vote for it this time.

And all the people moaning about how May's deal 'isn't leaving the EU' will be hailing Boris and 'his deal'. Politics.

 

[blue-shifted]

One of a series of quite unlikely events has to happen. My thoughts on the following events and their liklihood

General election = Not a chance. The Tory MP’s would face wipeout from the Brexit party if there is an election before we leave. Parliament, couldn’t even get a simple majority for this let alone two thirds.

Theresa May’s deal (or a rebrand of) = Very unlikely. Those who say the EU would never consider a substantial renegotiation are correct, certainly not before October. How would they know that whatever is renegotiated could get through Parliament? Boris can’t get a cosmetic rehash of this through parliament any more than Theresa May could. An outside possibility is that they could insist on a second ref as part of the deal

Second Ref = I can’t see it. With all the macho posturing to the Tory members going on, could Boris really sponsor something this unpredictable? More likely is that, late in the day, with Corbyn having been slaughtered at conference, Labour unite with SNP, lib dems and tory remainers and they hijack some parliamentary time to get this through. The only way the numbers could be found in parliament is if is if it was a stark choice between 2nd ref and no deal. I still can’t see it.

No deal = The most likely outcome. Parliament will try to avoid it, but without a majority for anything and with very little sympathy from the EU for an extension (there will be even less with a belligerent Boris in charge) There will be no way alternative to the clock running out. The outcome will be economic and social carnage, but the Tories will present this as the will of the people, and the press will back them up. Unbelievably they will remain the dominant electoral force as the middle aged tory vote will be relatively insulated from the effects.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Johnson will be brilliant at spin - and if he wants this deal to pass, and the EU want this deal to pass, it will pass. They WILL give him the face-saver. Politics.

Its really just maths back in the UK parliament. Last time May's deal went for a vote it was defeated 344-286. Johnson, IDS and Rees-Mogg were among those voting for the deal. You need 30 MP's to flip, and 34 Tories voted against it. Nearly all of those were ERG who will come on board under a Johnson leadership - lets face it, several are likely to be in cabinet, like Priti Patel and Steve Baker.

A few Labour will probably switch as well. Boris will make sure anyone who might vote for the deal will get enough inducements to do so.

The Brexit deal has so far been brought down by the DUP and the ERG. Next time the DUP won't matter (and Boris could win their votes) and the ERG will come in line. The only way to defeat it now in parliament is by Remainers, but I don't see it, unfortunately. Grieve will probably quit the Tories, Justine Greening maybe too, but are there enough there? One of the Remainer Tories who voted against the deal is Boris' brother Jo! He'll vote for it this time.

And all the people moaning about how May's deal 'isn't leaving the EU' will be hailing Boris and 'his deal'. Politics.

30 Tories have threatened to leave the party in the event of a No Deal scenario.

 

[Grombleton]

I know we are not supposed to comment on here, but whatever happens in the next few days/weeks/months, the generation of my children's age (35 and 37) will sort it out.

I'd like it if they didn't **** it up for my generation to have to 'sort it out', that'd be lovely

 

[Chicken Run]

Yes we will be out with no deal.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The Tory party know they will face electoral oblivion if they don't 'deliver Brexit' by 31st October.

On this basis they will bodge something together in time so that they can say they have delivered Brexit.

If labour get someone electable in they would be destroyed either way.

 

[Postman Pat]

No deal = The most likely outcome. Parliament will try to avoid it, but without a majority for anything and with very little sympathy from the EU for an extension (there will be even less with a belligerent Boris in charge) There will be no way alternative to the clock running out. The outcome will be economic and social carnage, but the Tories will present this as the will of the people, and the press will back them up. Unbelievably they will remain the dominant electoral force as the middle aged tory vote will be relatively insulated from the effects.

There is always the option to revoke Article 50, we don't need EU agreement to that, and then it would potentially provide the opportunity to negotiate an alternative.

Not saying it will happen, but just running down the clock doesn't automatically mean no deal if Parliament doesn't want it to.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

30 Tories have threatened to leave the party in the event of a No Deal scenario.

Yes. There won't be a No Deal, thankfully - as much fun as it might be to see the Tories collapse in disarray.

 

[vegster]

Boris might just be able to get May's deal over the line with pointless semantics and bluster. As pointed out earlier, this will go down as Boris's Deal and be much celebrated unless in two years time we are in a shitstorm of economic woes and it will then be known as May's Deal.

I'm booking a car ferry for Dunkirk mid October for possibly my last beer run ever.

 

[Pavilionaire]

There seem to be two forces at work here:

a) Pro Brexit forces that will surely result in a coming together of Boris Johnson and Farage in a common interest to deliver Brexit.

b) Anti-Brexit forces swirling around the Lib Dems and the Labour Party, with Chuka's switch, Alistair Campbell voting Lib Dem in the European elections, Deputy Leader Tom Watson pledging support for a Second Referendum and the 6 million petition / 1 million x 2 London marches, plus the overriding fear of the havoc that No Deal will wreak.

 

[Audax]

Given it looks likely that Boris will be the next PM ... it's hard to see how we get to October 31st without a general election being triggered one way or another. Should that happen, the EU will have no hesitation giving a further extension in the hope that a 2nd referendum majority government can be formed (and then hope for a Remain result).

 

[nicko31]

Given it looks likely that Boris will be the next PM ... it's hard to see how we get to October 31st without a general election being triggered one way or another. Should that happen, the EU will have no hesitation giving a further extension in the hope that a 2nd referendum majority government can be formed (and then hope for a Remain result).

Can just see Labour and the Tories campaigning on getting a better deal with Europe again......

Would Labour campaign on 2nd ref and Tories on No Deal? That's the big question....

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Labour might stand on 2nd Ref, but I'm not sure they will. Tories will not stand on a specific form of Brexit, in my opinion. I don't see how they possibly can.

I'd agree on Labour and think that Boris would go to Brussels, return and make a Churchillian speech to whip the Tory masses about some new concession, which wouldn't be a great deal, in the hope of getting May v.4 over the line and use that as a clear exit strategy.

 

[lawros left foot]

Aren’t we all forgetting the Irish backstop?

The EU can’t, and won’t change that, the DUP is completely intransigent on the problem, therefore , no deal or revoke Article 50.

Don’t forget,95% of Mays deal was acceptable to the majority of Parliament, it fell on the backstop, which won’t change.

The Tories major fault lines in the last 2 centuries have been, our relationship with Europe, and the ‘Irish Question ‘
Brexit is the perfect Tory storm.

 

[portslade seagull]

Oh great another Brexit thread by a remoaner. Can't you stick to the one that's already ruined

 

[KZNSeagull]

Not going to start another thread, but Raab is out of the PM running. Rory is through with 33 votes, so let's see him tear into Boris tonight (hopefully).

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Not going to start another thread, but Raab is out of the PM running. Rory is through with 33 votes, so let's see him tear into Boris tonight (hopefully).

Michael Gove - 41
Jeremy Hunt - 46
Sajid Javid - 33
Boris Johnson - 126
Dominic Raab - 30
Rory Stewart - 37

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Oh great another Brexit thread by a remoaner. Can't you stick to the one that's already ruined

Talking of moaning.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Michael Gove - 41
Jeremy Hunt - 46
Sajid Javid - 33
Boris Johnson - 126
Dominic Raab - 30
Rory Stewart - 37

Oh he got more than was reported on the beeb. Jolly good. Looking forward to tonight now, as long as they let him speak (Rory that is).

 

[nicko31]

Rory, gonna cause trouble. They will be concerned about his kamikaze style. Time to expose Alexander....