[Politics] Do you believe we are going to leave the EU on October 31st

[Pavilionaire]

So of the 50 votes from the 4 candidates already eliminated only 12 have gone to Johnson. Swing in full:

Gove +4
Hunt + 3
Javed +10
Johnson +12
Raab +3
Stewart +18.

Hunt and Gove would have been looking to have got more than +7 between them. Supporters of both men must be eyeing Stewart on +18 wondering if he is a better bet to take on Boris.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Impossible to say until we know who the next PM is. :endofthread:

Possible to say regardless (unless by some freak of wierdness Nigel Farrage becomes tory leader). No. No we won't.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Rory, gonna cause trouble. They will be concerned about his kamikaze style. Time to expose Alexander....

Interesting - a quote from George Orwell.

[tweet]1140878258675826688[/tweet]

 

[WATFORD zero]

Well done all

8 hours 44 mins of mature, intelligent discussion before the first insulting one line post that adds nothing to the discussion.

It's amazing what sensible adults can do when the kids are in school isn't it

OK [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] you've got justification to close the thread. (Or see if it was just a one off and whether the grown ups will be allowed to continue ?)

 

[beorhthelm]

Johnson will be brilliant at spin - and if he wants this deal to pass, and the EU want this deal to pass, it will pass. They WILL give him the face-saver. Politics.

Its really just maths back in the UK parliament. Last time May's deal went for a vote it was defeated 344-286. Johnson, IDS and Rees-Mogg were among those voting for the deal. You need 30 MP's to flip, and 34 Tories voted against it. Nearly all of those were ERG who will come on board under a Johnson leadership - lets face it, several are likely to be in cabinet, like Priti Patel and Steve Baker.

A few Labour will probably switch as well. Boris will make sure anyone who might vote for the deal will get enough inducements to do so.

The Brexit deal has so far been brought down by the DUP and the ERG. Next time the DUP won't matter (and Boris could win their votes) and the ERG will come in line. The only way to defeat it now in parliament is by Remainers, but I don't see it, unfortunately. Grieve will probably quit the Tories, Justine Greening maybe too, but are there enough there? One of the Remainer Tories who voted against the deal is Boris' brother Jo! He'll vote for it this time.

And all the people moaning about how May's deal 'isn't leaving the EU' will be hailing Boris and 'his deal'. Politics.

so cynical, yet so right. and probably same scenario with any leader, they know they have no real options, need to rebrand the deal.

 

[portslade seagull]

Just wait to see if Boris puts his size 12s right in it or whether he can control himself. Prince Charles sound a likey Stewart could wind him up enough for him to come unstuck