[Albion] Brighton are too good and will go down one day

[MJsGhost]

Journos also make a habit of suggesting that we have a deliberate tactic of developing players with the intent to sell. That's not an accurate reflection of the actual facts. We certainly look to develop young talent through signings and through the academy. However none of the people listed in his article, on or off the pitch were offered up for sale by the club. They all made the decision themselves and were all tempted away for higher wages. At the point they made it clear that they wanted to leave, the club did all it could to maximise the return on its investment. The only other option would have been to match the wages on offer and that will never happen.

Bloom has a wage structure and that structure is limited by sustainability limits. He will not offer the players contracts that the monied seven will offer because he has known for years what Samuel thinks he is revealing: Our achievement is massively against the odds. Statistically it is far more likely that a club of our size will revert to relegation strugglers than to continue to compete for European places. Bloom is a brilliant custodian of a football club because of his passion, wealth and generosity, but also because of his hard headed business approach. He has a strategy and seemingly the first imperative of that strategy is to guarantee professional football for the people of Sussex. The rest of the strategy has to be formed within the limits that this requires.

We are not in the business of competing financially with the rich seven because that could jeopardise our existence. This means that employees will want to move to where the money is. We have no control over this and have to plan around it. Hence Caicedo was brought in when we had Bissouma, Gilmore was brought in when we had Caicedo and Baleba has been brought in whilst we have Gilmore. Baleba could fail as Dahoud seems to have done, but the investment in him is not, in modern terms, huge and he is not the only option: there is Hinshelwood and others from the academy, or whichever raw talent they'll be planning to bring in fairly cheap next summer. There's also Leonard and Ayari and Alzate and Weir and Kozlowski, all currently on loan. The majority won't be the answer, but by developing so many, those who are good enough for the next level down pay for themselves and the chances of finding the right one are increased. We are not Southampton because our plan is not to spend the big transfer fees on one or two proposed replacement. We spend on multiple potential replacements thus maximising the chances of getting the right one. Yes it can go wrong, but it's a sustainable plan that can outlast personnel, whether it is operated in the EPL or the Championship.

Nailed it.

We don't HAVE to get it right every time for the model to work.

There would have to be a cataclysmically bad sequence of events for the wheels to come so far off that we have no chance of survival and that is all thanks to the succession planning & strategy (which is apparently the reason we will be relegated soon).

That's all before even talking about the fact that there are a bunch of clubs that will be deemed in the relegation mix before a ball is even kicked every season (whether because they are badly run, facing FFP sanctions, or just newly promoted).

The whole premise of the article is ridiculous.

Martin Samuel ceased to be anything close to a decent journalist many years ago.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

I haven’t read the article but I always found him a cut above most of the other journalists. Barnes, Syid and Samuel’s was a top line up in The Times and the main reason why I often bought it.

As a former Times employee I agree about Barnes and Sammy. But most people in sports journalism think Syed's a t*ss*r. The rest know he is.

 

[aolstudios]

Lazy, ignorant fluff

 

[trueblue]

Very strange indeed. What is he trying to say?

I think he's trying to say "This should fill a bit of space. Is that enough yet?"

That said, while I've always been in the 'Bloom is the difference' camp, a nagging little doubt occurred to me the other day. I mean, Bloom HAS been here for a long time and yet the recruitment wasn't always so good. In fact, for a long time it was bang average. It's pretty fair to assume that you can't lose important backroom staff ad infinitum without it having some effect - especially if too many leave in quick succession. Hopefully it's true that the structure now in place is the thing that changed. That can be copied though, so it's got to be difficult to remain ahead of the curve.

 

[um bongo molongo]

Strange article.

I’m a Times subscriber and you could say that about all his articles. Odd guy who (in my opinion) is also a very bad writer. He is as bad at writing about football as Atherton is brilliant at writing about cricket.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

As a former Times employee I agree about Barnes and Sammy. But most people in sports journalism think Syed's a t*ss*r. The rest know he is.

If you don't mind me asking, what did you think about Atherton?

 

[um bongo molongo]

As a former Times employee I agree about Barnes and Sammy. But most people in sports journalism think Syed's a t*ss*r. The rest know he is.

Interesting. I like Syed’s writing and find him on the money and genuinely insightful on most things (especially politics - his column on Sunday was excellent). No idea what he’s like as a person. I liked Barnes and love Atherton’s writing. But Samuels is a News of The World hack who reckons he’s cleverer than he is and has clearly bought in to the narrative of the petro states because he’s a useful idiot. Part of the overall dumbing down of what used to be a good newspaper.

 

[Birdie Boy]

We may go down at some point and we may not... look at Everton, ok clinging on this and last season but they've never been relegated. Apart from a few very good seasons in Europe and fa Cup they just toddled along. Same for spurs, although they have way more money than us, no league just the odd cup every few decades. Then there's Leicester, west ham, Newcastle that have been relegated but pretty much straight back up. No reason why we couldn't go down and back up. As long as we don't end up with dodgy managers like some of the clubs I've mentioned hopefully we will stay at least better than 3 other clubs for a long time yet. Or, get above our station like Bolton, Charlton etc. And want too much.

 

[spence]

He might well be right. We are one of twelve or 13 teams or so who will always be looking over our shoulders. Not really rocket science. Just enjoy the time here.

 

[Marshy]

Man makes comment that applies to 12 of the current prem league table

Mr Bloom may also have something to say about this.

 

[Beanstalk]

It goes hand in hand with the people that compare us to Southampton, in that there was a point where they had a top 6 quality squad which they broke apart by selling for big money & they couldnt replicate it so eventually tumbled down the table. They see how well we're doing, they see us selling players for big money, and think the same will happen. & it may, one day. But the huge difference between Southampton & us, is that yes it was good scouting for them to find those players but the timing which had them in one squad was rather fortuitous. With us it is much more of a long term strategy. We've scouted, bought, developed, and sold players for big money in the past (White, Cucurella, Caicedo, MacAllister, Sanchez, Trossard, Bissouma). We've got players currently in the squad where similar could happen in terms of big fees (Ferguson, Pedro, Enciso, Adingra, Buananotte, Mitoma, Baleba, Barco, Van Hecke, Hinshelwood). & beyond that we have the next batch of players in their early development stages who havent even got to our mens squad yet (Sarmiento, Ayari, Kozlowski, Leonard, Mazilu, Osman, Beadle, O'Mahony etc). Basically the people who write these articles and say it cant last have no idea of the succession planning that goes on in terms of our playing squad. This golden era may not last beyond another 5 years, but there's also a very good chance that it does.

These are all really good points but the Saints comparison is lazier than that. They had excellent alignment across the club, with a clear strategy that was bringing them success (though you are absolutely right, our strategy is far longer term) and then the owner sold up to a Chinese businessman. He mentions Brentford's owner selling up, they are far more likely to follow Southampton's path. I do not get Samuel's comparisons to Wimbledon FC unless we're about to become to dump the Amex and build a new ground in Thanet with a new name; East Kent Seagulls... Once again, Hamman selling Wimbledon to Norwegian owners led to the downfall on the pitch anyway.

Ultimately, I can't see a situation where Bloom is willing to sell, and I think he is one of the most ambitious owner in the league. Because of that it's wildly unlikely that we veer far off of the track that we're on which as you say is long-term and wide-ranging.

 

[Zeberdi]

I think it's naïve to think we wont go down at some point but I think we have the structure in place to get back up quickly.

If you look at last years relegated teams they look very strong and I'd imagine two will come straight back up, I also think our crowds would stay high so with parachute payments we'd be on a strong financial footing.

Parachute payments are still a bone of contention between the EPL and the EFL - the argument is that parachute payments have acted more like trampoline payments for teams newly relegated to the Championship.

I think it remains to be seen whether parachute payments survive into the new regulator deal being discussed along with financial redistribution- I think the EFL prefer 25% of the EPL’s shared pool of broadcast revenue than parachute payments.

If we go eventually go down, it won’t because of poor executive management or a loss of our financial sustainability strategy, it will be because more and more foreign investor consortiums are buying into the EPL - single person ownership will find it harder and harder to compete.

Limiting foreign (especially state sponsored) consortium investments as a form of unfair monopolisation of the market might be the only way to protect single ownership clubs from being permanently booted out of the EPL.

That’s where the focus should be in any discussion about Brighton IMO - not comparing us to clubs who fell short of having sustainable business plans and paid the price for short term boom and bust economic strategies.

 

[GT49er]

We may go down at some point and we may not... look at Everton, ok clinging on this and last season but they've never been relegated. Apart from a few very good seasons in Europe and fa Cup they just toddled along. Same for spurs, although they have way more money than us, no league just the odd cup every few decades. Then there's Leicester, west ham, Newcastle that have been relegated but pretty much straight back up. No reason why we couldn't go down and back up. As long as we don't end up with dodgy managers like some of the clubs I've mentioned hopefully we will stay at least better than 3 other clubs for a long time yet. Or, get above our station like Bolton, Charlton etc. And want too much.

Everton have been relegated twice. 1930 and 1951.



(Football wasn't invented by Sky in the 90s, etc, etc..................................)

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Samuels is a big believer in ‘the natural order.’ If this were the 1960s he would be saying the same about Liverpool. Look how that turned out.

 

[GT49er]

Samuels is a big believer in ‘the natural order.’ If this were the 1960s he would be saying the same about Liverpool. Look how that turned out.

Saying the same about Liverpool? - the five times league Champions who had spent all but 11 seasons of their existence in the top division. That Liverpool?

 

[DJ NOBO]

Martin Samuel in today's Times

"Here’s a prediction. Not one I wish to come true. In the next five seasons, maybe even sooner, Brighton & Hove Albion will be relegated. Not because they’re bad, but because they’re too good. Given the context of their resources and limitations, Brighton are as good as any team in the Premier League right now. And, for that reason, it simply can’t last."

As Times is paywall no point in posting a link but a long article explaining that we can't go on shipping out our best players and staff and expect to stay in the Premier League.. Brentford in same position.

Yeah yeah fat boy . We ain’t never going down

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Saying the same about Liverpool? - the five times league Champions who had spent all but 11 seasons of their existence in the top division. That Liverpool?

Err yes, that Liverpool. The one that was promoted in the 1960s. He would have predicted they would last 5 years in Dvision 1 before Wolves and Blackpool restored the natural order. As I said, look how that would have turned out….

 

[GT49er]

Err yes, that Liverpool. The one that was promoted in the 1960s. He would have predicted they would last 5 years in Dvision 1 before Wolves and Blackpool restored the natural order. As I said, look how that would have turned out….

Not at all - Liverpool weren't a bit like us, newly promoted after most of our lives in division 3 - they were a big team which had had a dip in the late 50s. Blackpool? Ten years since their FA Cup win, never really a big club, just famous for Stanley Matthews.
Comparing our situation now to Liverpool's in the 60s (League winners and FA Cup winners in the 60s too) is plain daft!

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Not at all - Liverpool weren't a bit like us, newly promoted after most of our lives in division 3 - they were a big team which had had a dip in the late 50s. Blackpool? Ten years since their FA Cup win, never really a big club, just famous for Stanley Matthews.
Omparing our situation now to Liverpool's in the 60s (League winners and FA Cup winners in the 60s too) is plain daft!

I wasn’t comparing Brighton to Liverpool. I was comparing attitudes to recently promoted clubs challenging the established order. I could have used a different comparison but this one works to make my point.

 

[GT49er]

I wasn’t comparing Brighton to Liverpool. I was comparing attitudes to recently promoted clubs challenging the established order. I could have used a different comparison but this one works to make my point.

I get that - but Liverpool were the wrong team to pick; they weren't a new club coming from obscurity to challenge the big boys - they were big boys! Thinking of teams newly promoted back then that didn't have a long history of winning championships and existing in the top division, well you could have had Southampton, QPR, even Palace as examples, rather than Liverpool returning to their natural place in the scheme of things.