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[Albion] Brighton are too good and will go down one day



SAC

Well-known member
May 21, 2014
2,631
However, I think that Chelsea can't have another bad season and (thankfully) I keep being wrong.

Theoretically you can't keep selling your best players and hope to get cheap replacements, but it does seem to be working.
 






beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,019
for a veteran and award winning journalist, that's a very peculiar way to say we're doing really well and it may not last.
 








Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
12,136
It's an argument I've heard a lot, but I think it misses the key point.

he recruitment strategy goes much deeper than "buy a wonderkid, sell on for a profit after a season".
The fact that has happened for 3 or 4 seasons, coinciding with our improvement, doesn't mean it is all we are doing.

We have gradually increased the quality of the whole squad. over the past 5 or 6 seasons.
Our core players are good enough to keep us mid-table at least.

I fully expect the strategy to continue to do this, for a good while yet.
 


BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
13,057
There's a narrative I've seen out there that we're a Southampton waiting to happen; that this model has proven to be unsustainable over a long period of time.

Which I don't necessarily disagree with - in theory a couple of bad transfer windows where we sign more duds than wonderkids could cause us problems.

I'm not naive enough to think we won't go down. The odds are against us, in the long term.

But it's a lazy narrative based solely around the fact that we, like Southampton before us, prefer to buy emerging talent to sell for huge profit. It fails entirely to take into account that Tony Bloom isn't a f**king idiot with his money.
 






brighton_tom

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2008
5,521
It's an argument I've heard a lot, but I think it misses the key point.

he recruitment strategy goes much deeper than "buy a wonderkid, sell on for a profit after a season".
The fact that has happened for 3 or 4 seasons, coinciding with our improvement, doesn't mean it is all we are doing.

We have gradually increased the quality of the whole squad. over the past 5 or 6 seasons.
Our core players are good enough to keep us mid-table at least.

I fully expect the strategy to continue to do this, for a good while yet.
It goes hand in hand with the people that compare us to Southampton, in that there was a point where they had a top 6 quality squad which they broke apart by selling for big money & they couldnt replicate it so eventually tumbled down the table. They see how well we're doing, they see us selling players for big money, and think the same will happen. & it may, one day. But the huge difference between Southampton & us, is that yes it was good scouting for them to find those players but the timing which had them in one squad was rather fortuitous. With us it is much more of a long term strategy. We've scouted, bought, developed, and sold players for big money in the past (White, Cucurella, Caicedo, MacAllister, Sanchez, Trossard, Bissouma). We've got players currently in the squad where similar could happen in terms of big fees (Ferguson, Pedro, Enciso, Adingra, Buananotte, Mitoma, Baleba, Barco, Van Hecke, Hinshelwood). & beyond that we have the next batch of players in their early development stages who havent even got to our mens squad yet (Sarmiento, Ayari, Kozlowski, Leonard, Mazilu, Osman, Beadle, O'Mahony etc). Basically the people who write these articles and say it cant last have no idea of the succession planning that goes on in terms of our playing squad. This golden era may not last beyond another 5 years, but there's also a very good chance that it does.
 


Guy Fawkes

The voice of treason
Sep 29, 2007
8,297
Very strange indeed. What is he trying to say?
That we need to buy badly, have average at best players which are therefore undesirable to other teams, and will mean that we can keep the side together as the best way for us avoid relegation.

We wont lose our better players, because no-one will want them, and mean that although we'll finish closer to the relegation spots each season (i guess he thinks) we'll survive longer in the division?
 


Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,650
I like the idea that if we have a bad season for injuries we are doomed. Fortunately this season we have been lucky and hardly had any, I guess. We decided to take the field vs spurs without a winger or full back on the pitch through tactics and nothing else.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,553
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I mean, eventually he's right in that Brighton (and Brentford, and indeed everyone else outside the big 7) will end up being relegated, it's hardly the greatest insight any journalist has produced.

Within the next 5 years? Maybe, maybe not.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,476
Brighton
Not sure I quite follow his logic.
 


rebel51

Well-known member
Jan 4, 2021
816
West sussex
He's right in a way, it won't last all this, it's all been too amazing all this atm, but a club like ours cannot stay rooted in the Premier league,it's not sustainable.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,952
Surrey
He's right in a way, it won't last all this, it's all been too amazing all this atm, but a club like ours cannot stay rooted in the Premier league,it's not sustainable.
As has been already said, he's only right insofar as it's a truism. It's not remotely insightful.

The bottom line is that unless the league becomes populated by "other 14" clubs (the big 6 will always have enough money to compete/beat us) where their infrastructure is populated by management structures similar to ours, and masterminded by similar statistical geniuses, we're not going down. Even when Bloom steps down, there's a good chance we will continue to compete owing to the structure now in place.
 




Martin Samuel in today's Times

"Here’s a prediction. Not one I wish to come true. In the next five seasons, maybe even sooner, Brighton & Hove Albion will be relegated. Not because they’re bad, but because they’re too good. Given the context of their resources and limitations, Brighton are as good as any team in the Premier League right now. And, for that reason, it simply can’t last."

As Times is paywall no point in posting a link but a long thoughtful article explaining that we can't go on shipping out our best players and staff and expect to stay in the Premier League.. Brentford in same position.

Wtf is he on?! Complete tosser. Makes no sense! Too good so they will go down. If we are to adjust our model to spend more then we will be fine and as long as we are still well run by TB / PB. What a cock,
 


Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
16,055
He's right in a way, it won't last all this, it's all been too amazing all this atm, but a club like ours cannot stay rooted in the Premier league,it's not sustainable.
'It's only a bloody game.cheer up'

:dunce:
 




Billy the Fish

Technocrat
Oct 18, 2005
17,594
Haywards Heath
There's a narrative I've seen out there that we're a Southampton waiting to happen; that this model has proven to be unsustainable over a long period of time.

Which I don't necessarily disagree with - in theory a couple of bad transfer windows where we sign more duds than wonderkids could cause us problems.

I'm not naive enough to think we won't go down. The odds are against us, in the long term.

But it's a lazy narrative based solely around the fact that we, like Southampton before us, prefer to buy emerging talent to sell for huge profit. It fails entirely to take into account that Tony Bloom isn't a f**king idiot with his money.
Agree with all this.

I'd like to add to the list of potential pitfalls:
Manager that doesn't work out.
Bigger clubs copy and dilute our transfer policy (this might already be happening)
Dressing room turmoil (e.g Leicester under Micky Adams)
Tony Bloom gets distracted

It'll probably be a combo of everything, to varying degrees. . We absolutely will have a bad season sooner of later, we just have to hope we can recover and build again afterwards.

Southampton went down because of a chain of events which began with the death of Markus Liebherr. He was the driving force of their success, his daughter wasn't as interested and sold it to a Chinese bloke who didn't have a clue. It wasn't just some inevitable thing waiting to happen.
 


Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
It is lazy journalism comparing us to Southampton and Leicester. Their demise wasn't so much as they couldn't keep up with the demands of the PL, but that they both had the misfortune to have their owners die.

As long as Tony Bloom is alive and kicking, we'll be ok.
 


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