[Politics] Brexit

[albion68]

It's all it takes - a Brexit backing Tory with a posh voice talking about a 'managed no deal Brexit' (or whatever the phrase for it is this week) mix in a bit of nostalgia, chuck in a bit of 'our own free trade deals, ya' and add a sprinkling of 'take back control of our laws, borders and money, what, what, what because we're Briddish' and the pup gets sold because people fall for it due to their inherent deference to such people.

Remain posters let themselves down with our fair society ,discriminating against posh people .

 

[Mo Gosfield]

That eloquent post makes no good argument for leaving, it denigrates the EU, but with falsehoods and half truths.
The rise of German manufacturing was not an EU determined thing, the same choices Germany had, we had, we could have pushed manufacturing and joined the Euro, but we kept Sterling and pushed services.
It says the EU is hell bent on expansion, yet it's the UK that has advocated most for previous expansions of the EU, and there is no qualifying of whether expansion is a good or bad thing in any case, it is certainly a bit disrupting when a new member or members join, but I am sure you are willing to put up with short term disruption for long term gain.
Even if the statements in that post were all accurate, there is no logical argument for how the UK will have it's prospects improved by leaving anywhere in that post, please highlight for me any portion that does if you think I have missed something.

Ok. Right of reply.
1) How am I denigrating the EU? I stated that I could see clear benefits of being a member. I can see clearly what they are trying to achieve. As someone who has studied political and economic history, I can also see the dangers ahead. Its a personal opinion of course but I see no future for the EU as it stands. It is about to lose one of its single biggest contributors and some member states have already told Brussels that they are not willing to pay more into the budget, to compensate for our departure. The EU budget will shrink because of Brexit, unless they find other revenue streams. I have stated that politics is changing the face of Europe and will likely dictate the future of the EU. Is that a falsehood or wild speculation?
2) Where do I state that the rise of German manufacturing was an EU led thing? I said it benefits Germany because they are already a powerhouse in that sector. ( 3rd highest percentage of manufacturing to GDP in the world at 23% ....ours is 10% )They saw the decline in heavy industry in the UK and took their opportunity to build themselves. With the aid of their banks they invested heavily in this sector. In the last 50 years, our country has seen the second largest drop in manufacturing employment in the world. It wasn't an accident. It was deliberate policy. A belief in services ( particularly financial ) led those in authority to believe that it was fine to allow manufacturing to decline. Thatcherism led many to believe that those gaps would be filled by other industries. They weren't and it created a shortage of quality jobs for the working class. I would like to know how, after 25-30 years of steady decline in our manufacturing base, we could have ' pushed ' it and turned it around and joined the Euro?
3) The UK did push for EU expansion, particularly in the East. I think you will find that the real emphasis was quite a few years ago and I also think that you will find that it fitted quite nicely into our political agenda at the time. i.e an open door policy is to be encouraged. We need more migrant workers.
4) There are clearly pro's and con's for leaving the EU. If you just take consumer goods, you could argue that you are getting lower prices because of the EU bargaining power. I could argue that we each lose a lot of money each year because of EU VAT contributions and the CAP. You could argue the benefits of barrier free trading. I could argue that EU bureaucracy strangles a lot of smaller UK businesses. And so on.
I made my mind up some time ago that the EU didn't have a long term future and nothing I have seen is going to convince me otherwise. Its operates protectionism for its members and negotiates on a global stage but its not keeping pace with the rest of the world and is shrinking as a global force. We have changed as a country and although it has served us well in the past, we need more now than being wrapped up in the comfort of the EU blanket. If we cannot determine our own way forward, we will not grow. We have to strengthen our position globally. It won't be easy. Nothing ever is. Many fear change. They are happy with their lot. They have a particular lifestyle and aren't prepared to compromise.
The EU by its nature is devisive. Those that want sovereignty and independence and self-determination cannot ally with those who are sold on the EU. Any manner of economic benefit cannot heal that divide.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Ok. Right of reply.
1) How am I denigrating the EU? I stated that I could see clear benefits of being a member. I can see clearly what they are trying to achieve. As someone who has studied political and economic history, I can also see the dangers ahead. Its a personal opinion of course but I see no future for the EU as it stands. It is about to lose one of its single biggest contributors and some member states have already told Brussels that they are not willing to pay more into the budget, to compensate for our departure. The EU budget will shrink because of Brexit, unless they find other revenue streams. I have stated that politics is changing the face of Europe and will likely dictate the future of the EU. Is that a falsehood or wild speculation?
2) Where do I state that the rise of German manufacturing was an EU led thing? I said it benefits Germany because they are already a powerhouse in that sector. ( 3rd highest percentage of manufacturing to GDP in the world at 23% ....ours is 10% )They saw the decline in heavy industry in the UK and took their opportunity to build themselves. With the aid of their banks they invested heavily in this sector. In the last 50 years, our country has seen the second largest drop in manufacturing employment in the world. It wasn't an accident. It was deliberate policy. A belief in services ( particularly financial ) led those in authority to believe that it was fine to allow manufacturing to decline. Thatcherism led many to believe that those gaps would be filled by other industries. They weren't and it created a shortage of quality jobs for the working class. I would like to know how, after 25-30 years of steady decline in our manufacturing base, we could have ' pushed ' it and turned it around and joined the Euro?
3) The UK did push for EU expansion, particularly in the East. I think you will find that the real emphasis was quite a few years ago and I also think that you will find that it fitted quite nicely into our political agenda at the time. i.e an open door policy is to be encouraged. We need more migrant workers.
4) There are clearly pro's and con's for leaving the EU. If you just take consumer goods, you could argue that you are getting lower prices because of the EU bargaining power. I could argue that we each lose a lot of money each year because of EU VAT contributions and the CAP. You could argue the benefits of barrier free trading. I could argue that EU bureaucracy strangles a lot of smaller UK businesses. And so on.
I made my mind up some time ago that the EU didn't have a long term future and nothing I have seen is going to convince me otherwise. Its operates protectionism for its members and negotiates on a global stage but its not keeping pace with the rest of the world and is shrinking as a global force. We have changed as a country and although it has served us well in the past, we need more now than being wrapped up in the comfort of the EU blanket. If we cannot determine our own way forward, we will not grow. We have to strengthen our position globally. It won't be easy. Nothing ever is. Many fear change. They are happy with their lot. They have a particular lifestyle and aren't prepared to compromise.
The EU by its nature is devisive. Those that want sovereignty and independence and self-determination cannot ally with those who are sold on the EU. Any manner of economic benefit cannot heal that divide.

Given the reasons above that you have outlined for believing we would be better off outside of the EU, we have an immediate pressing issue on the method by which we leave.

In order to achieve what you want, which Brexit do you think would be better, Deal with some kind of Customs Union or 'No deal' to get us to where you want to be ?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I just had a vision

View attachment 110192

She says she sees a hard line Brexiteer becoming PM

They will then say 'I didn't say I wanted no deal, I want a good deal, but no deal must be left on the table to get a good deal'.

Because that went so well last time

She also said we won't be leaving the EU before the end of the next ski season, so go ahead and book those early deals

So unshockingly she's changed her predictions AGAIN ! You really need to dump her.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Of course we can leave with no deal.

Yet before you've said it isn't possible You really are all over the place now. Your age is clearly catching up with you.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So unshockingly she's changed her predictions AGAIN ! You really need to dump her.

I really can't see anything beyond the three options

1/ Soft Brexit with No borders and customs union

2/ No Deal and WTO

3/ Withdraw article 50

Shirley, any negotiation now will only be minor fine-tuning on one of the above

I believe her predictions from 3 years ago still hold true completely. She's just giving you a little more detail on what will happen along the way and timings.

And although No Deal is still an option, she still doesn't think it can happen without a few 10s of Billions of investment and a few years building infrastructure etc and until someone does significantly more than a couple of days of dredging and driving 80 lorries and a dustcart up the M20, I think that prediction is safe too.

*edit*

Yet before you've said it isn't possible You really are all over the place now. Your age is clearly catching up with you.

I have never said it wasn't possible, I have always said it won't happen for the reasons outlined above.

Funnily enough here is the exact same question from you and same answer from me a few months back

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?343854-The-Brexit-Thread&p=8706949&viewfull=1#post8706949

and the same question and answer again
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?343854-The-Brexit-Thread&p=8788193&viewfull=1#post8788193

The last line of which reads 'I must be able to knock something up to save me keep giving the same answer to the same questions'

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

The problem is that the EU don't want to do a deal. Their approach is to push us into having only less desirable options. If they offer us an acceptable deal, we agree and we leave. It's done.

They are still hoping to prevent Brexit, so they will offer us a "deal" which isn't really leaving (the current withdrawl agreement), knowing that the only alternative is no deal, which they are hoping will be stopped from happening. So they are trying to push us into chosing between remain or remain. The only way out of that is to leave without a deal, and to actually be prepared to do that. Once we have left without a deal, that game will be over and they will actually get serious about doing a proper deal. Until then though, they will hold firm.

I'd rather do a deal, one which respects the fact that we want to leave properly and completely, and makes it as painless as possible for both sides. But that deal will never be on the table while we haven't actually left yet.

You said it yourself, no deal isn't an option which people are going to like. A deal which is worse than the current position (the deal on offer) isn't an option which people are going to like. What's the alternative to those two options? Remaining. & that's the whole point.

I see what you are saying. But what I think is abundantly clear at the moment is that:

1. People like David Davis et al who kept on trumpeting about how easy it would be to do a deal were speaking through their collective bottoms.

2. Similarly all those who said we would have the strongest hand in any negotiations had a very, very wrong appreciation of where we would be.

3. BOJO or whoever else ends up as prime Minister might go in all tough guy "you're dealing with me now, buster", but the EU's position is unlikely to change.

4. If we do leave with no deal, the pressure will be on us to do a deal, rather than the EU. We are losing 26 out of the 27 partners in the agreement. All the other countries are only losing 1 trading partner - maybe a significant trading partner, but BMW will still be able to sell in France, Spain, Norway, Holland, Belgium, Portugal, Italy and all those other places.

On top of all that, the remainder of Europe is likely to have a much more philosophical and long-termist view of it all. They will be prepared to ride the storm, if in fact there is a storm as far as they are concerned. It is the UK which will be knocked sideways.

 

[Weststander]

The clues were there from the first meeting. One side of the table looked prepared. The other...well not so much

Once David Davis later stepped down in a fit of pique because May was heading for a soft Brexit, the chief EU negotiator revealed (I’d say without spite, on that occasion), that Davis had been lazy.

I could well imagine that.

Incredible for someone negotiating a nation’s future.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Saw a very good piece on Sky News on the Brexit Party. The rallies have a striking resemblance - on a small scale - with those of Trump. Those of us who dismissed the Trump events (I was one of them) would be wise to take good notice of the Brexit Party template. The overall impression was that they have got their act together. Scary.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Ok. Right of reply.
1) How am I denigrating the EU? I stated that I could see clear benefits of being a member. I can see clearly what they are trying to achieve. As someone who has studied political and economic history, I can also see the dangers ahead. Its a personal opinion of course but I see no future for the EU as it stands. It is about to lose one of its single biggest contributors and some member states have already told Brussels that they are not willing to pay more into the budget, to compensate for our departure. The EU budget will shrink because of Brexit, unless they find other revenue streams. I have stated that politics is changing the face of Europe and will likely dictate the future of the EU. Is that a falsehood or wild speculation?
2) Where do I state that the rise of German manufacturing was an EU led thing? I said it benefits Germany because they are already a powerhouse in that sector. ( 3rd highest percentage of manufacturing to GDP in the world at 23% ....ours is 10% )They saw the decline in heavy industry in the UK and took their opportunity to build themselves. With the aid of their banks they invested heavily in this sector. In the last 50 years, our country has seen the second largest drop in manufacturing employment in the world. It wasn't an accident. It was deliberate policy. A belief in services ( particularly financial ) led those in authority to believe that it was fine to allow manufacturing to decline. Thatcherism led many to believe that those gaps would be filled by other industries. They weren't and it created a shortage of quality jobs for the working class. I would like to know how, after 25-30 years of steady decline in our manufacturing base, we could have ' pushed ' it and turned it around and joined the Euro?
3) The UK did push for EU expansion, particularly in the East. I think you will find that the real emphasis was quite a few years ago and I also think that you will find that it fitted quite nicely into our political agenda at the time. i.e an open door policy is to be encouraged. We need more migrant workers.
4) There are clearly pro's and con's for leaving the EU. If you just take consumer goods, you could argue that you are getting lower prices because of the EU bargaining power. I could argue that we each lose a lot of money each year because of EU VAT contributions and the CAP. You could argue the benefits of barrier free trading. I could argue that EU bureaucracy strangles a lot of smaller UK businesses. And so on.
I made my mind up some time ago that the EU didn't have a long term future and nothing I have seen is going to convince me otherwise. Its operates protectionism for its members and negotiates on a global stage but its not keeping pace with the rest of the world and is shrinking as a global force. We have changed as a country and although it has served us well in the past, we need more now than being wrapped up in the comfort of the EU blanket. If we cannot determine our own way forward, we will not grow. We have to strengthen our position globally. It won't be easy. Nothing ever is. Many fear change. They are happy with their lot. They have a particular lifestyle and aren't prepared to compromise.
The EU by its nature is devisive. Those that want sovereignty and independence and self-determination cannot ally with those who are sold on the EU. Any manner of economic benefit cannot heal that divide.

This masquerades reasonably effectively as a balanced analysis. But there's the same old tropes. The emboldened sentence is typically loaded and vaguely paranoid: the hint that the Germans were waiting in the wings to feast on the failings of the UK's heavy industry. This is weak and baseless. As for your point 4) there are too many false equivalents. Your conclusion is also skewed: countries that join willingly cede sovereignty and total self-determination; it is 'pooled' not pulled.

 

[dingodan]

Saw a very good piece on Sky News on the Brexit Party. The rallies have a striking resemblance - on a small scale - with those of Trump. Those of us who dismissed the Trump events (I was one of them) would be wise to take good notice of the Brexit Party template. The overall impression was that they have got their act together. Scary.

They have a resemblance to most political rallies with a high attendance.

They only thing they have specifically in common with a Trump ralley is that both are attended by people you don't agree with.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So unshockingly she's changed her predictions AGAIN ! You really need to dump her.

Maybe we could have another round of that game where Meg makes a prediction, and you and all your mates have your say

What was it Meg has been saying, to much derision, for over 2 years now ?

But the only thing that is certain is that we are not leaving on 29th March 2019 with a WTO 'no deal', and anyone who still thinks we are must be a little 'challenged'

Eh? Crash out with a No Deal Brexit?
Did you not get the memo from Watford Zero?
Even though the UK and EU are preparing for No Deal Brexit, and the EU further legislated for it last week and the PM only this week further stated that “An extension cannot take no deal off the table”
You must surely be aware a magic ball speaks to Watford zero and has told him a No Deal Brexit is impossible.

So let me get this right. The following people have said no deal is an absolute possibility ( and the list isn't exhustive ) :

Junker
May
Tusk
Barnier
Corbyn
Cable
Bank of England Governor
Bank of England Deputy Governor
The Irish PM
The Deputy Irish PM
The Irish Finance Minister
Hammond
Starmer
Fox
James Dyson
Numerous political commentators across the whole spectrum of the press
Macron
Merkel
The Dutch PM
The CEO of Aviva
Gove
The ERG
The First Minister of Scotland
The CBI
The IOD
A multitude of UK MPs
The head of the SMMT
The head of HMRC
Barclay
Johnson
Davies

Yet you, some retired small business person in Wales with some fake crystal ball knows better than all these people ( and others ) and dismisses it with "Politicians don't always tell the truth" ? Remarkable, utterly remarkable.

Do tell - what gives you this great in sight and knowledge that all this people closer to the process don't have ?

So, all of these people know so much less than someone who used to be a supplier to ma government department.

OK. Got it.

You are a prime example of the problem with this thread. Your failure to countenance that other, sharper minds than yours, say that this is being over played for political aims. But no, you know best. I'm surprised they haven't called you up to help them.

You are going to look so foolish when we leave and things get sorted with reasonable ease (post any short-term disruption).

And then, like last time, after the date of the prediction has passed we find out who was right.

Double or quits

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

They have a resemblance to most political rallies with a high attendance.

They only thing they have specifically in common with a Trump ralley is that both are attended by people you don't agree with.

You have a point, although by extension we could therefore equally compare a Brexit rally with a Nuremburg one - which would be silly, we'd both agree.

So here are 3 specifics which I think make the case that a Brexit rally has more in common with a Trump one than one by say, the Greens or the Lib-Dems.


1. A very high concentration on the leader figure (Farage).


2. A tendency to stereotype the opposition to and impugn their patriotism in a crude fashion using emotive language ('treachery' etc)


3. A rather dangerous apparent hostility to the press. The guy from SKY (hardly The Guardian or New York Post for that matter) was given a rather hostile reception by some of the attendees.

I'd also add that there looked to be a number of 'heavies' in attendance but hardly the Waffen SS - and of course Nige know lives in fear of the milkshake …….as someone cruelly said, the lactose meeting the intolerant.


And with respect to the point you make about people with whom I don't agree - well, I agree.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I agree. Brilliant post. Stand by for the words extreme / far right / racist / Daily Mail reader etc to be thrown about fairly soon. Having a well worded, carefully thought out & intelligent alternative opinion doesn't go down too well.

I don't go along with some of the points made but I agree with you that it was a thoughtful and well-crafted post. It's all too rare to see a cogent argument for Brexit on here. Furious emotions hold sway too often.

 

[sydney]

the whole issue has now become a cluster**** ......much like this thread , a series of finger pointing , back stabbing , obstructive manoeuvring , by self serving , inadequate , inept people who were charged by the electorate/population to serve their best interests......i honestly can't see any good coming out of any future negotiations at any level , the whole "political class" are compromised and politics has now become a game to an extent that exceeds the situation in any other country.....and i include tin pot countries in Africa in that statement.

it is a fact that the manufacturing sector has been all but shut down in Britain , there are no jobs as stated above for the working classes , i'm talking wholesale jobs , not a couple hundred here and there , there is a huge culture gap between the generations , your average 25 year old has absolutely nothing in common with your average 55 year old and basically the social fabric of the country is being undermined.......those behind the scenes in westminster have done a cracking job with bringing the country to it's knees and it appears now that should Brexit continue then the UK will get right royally shafted from all directions.......the toppers will fly the coup and the sovereign wealth of the nation will disappear into private coffers.
How are these politicians allowed to stretch out the process like this , it is damaging every aspect of our culture , international reputation and good will from Europe , at the end of the day they have showed their ineptitude to the nth degree......"lions lead by donkeys".......ring any bells.

 

[Sussex Nomad]

the whole issue has now become a cluster**** ......much like this thread , a series of finger pointing , back stabbing , obstructive manoeuvring , by self serving , inadequate , inept people who were charged by the electorate/population to serve their best interests......i honestly can't see any good coming out of any future negotiations at any level , the whole "political class" are compromised and politics has now become a game to an extent that exceeds the situation in any other country.....and i include tin pot countries in Africa in that statement.

it is a fact that the manufacturing sector has been all but shut down in Britain , there are no jobs as stated above for the working classes , i'm talking wholesale jobs , not a couple hundred here and there , there is a huge culture gap between the generations , your average 25 year old has absolutely nothing in common with your average 55 year old and basically the social fabric of the country is being undermined.......those behind the scenes in westminster have done a cracking job with bringing the country to it's knees and it appears now that should Brexit continue then the UK will get right royally shafted from all directions.......the toppers will fly the coup and the sovereign wealth of the nation will disappear into private coffers.
How are these politicians allowed to stretch out the process like this , it is damaging every aspect of our culture , international reputation and good will from Europe , at the end of the day they have showed their ineptitude to the nth degree......"lions lead by donkeys".......ring any bells.

Great post, the only thing I disagree with is the 25 - 55 year olds as I rarely see a disagreeing voice between either, but the rest of your controlled rant is perfect, if not wonderful.

 

[sydney]

Great post, the only thing I disagree with is the 25 - 55 year olds as I rarely see a disagreeing voice between either, but the rest of your controlled rant is perfect, if not wonderful.

footage of the sunderland slag shitting in Trafalgar fountain pushed me over the edge......

i'm not saying 25 -55 yr olds disagree on anything , they just have so very little in common , maybe 25 -65 yr olds would be more appt.

 

[Sussex Nomad]

footage of the sunderland slag shitting in Trafalgar fountain pushed me over the edge......

i'm not saying 25 -55 yr olds disagree on anything , they just have so very little in common , maybe 25 -65 yr olds would be more appt.

I go out and have a lot in common with our younger scallies, but that isn't taking away from your post, it is the sort of rant (good rant) I wish I could do.

 

[sydney]

I go out and have a lot in common with our younger scallies, but that isn't taking away from your post, it is the sort of rant (good rant) I wish I could do.

yes ....me too, i can talk to anyone and find it refreshing sometimes , but i think vote and resultant chicanery has driven a massive wedge between the two groups......just my opinion , could be wrong.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I saw this quote from Jonathon (Gulliver's Travels) Swift. It seemed to be so relevant to so many of the postings on this thread and explains the apparent futility of trying to use reasoned arguments to change the minds of at least some of the posters encountered here:


You cannot reason someone out of something he or she was not reasoned into.