[Politics] Brexit

[Baldseagull]

Technically 30th June wouldn't, as even though elections in may, new parliament wouldn't take legal effect until after June 30th. The problem for the EU is now this bullshit cooper/letwin law looks likely to pass, ruling out no deal, if on June 30th it's not resolved, they're in a bind. Without UK MEPs (election over) they're legal functioning is undermined with UK still in and no MEPs elected. Before cooper/letwin ee should of been forced to either have a deal or leave with none by 30th with no possible further extension (as no MEPs elected) but now our parliament has made no deal illegal on UK law? We'd be caught between need of MEPs and having none and illegal act in UK of no deal....The EU won't accept this chaotic position, besides they want a new vote so it will be long

The EU will not put themselves in the sort of constitutional mess we have gotten into. Any further extension will require us to hold elections for MEP's, if they end up never taking their seats, then that is fine, but if we are still able to revoke and stay, then we must have MEP's able to take their seats.

 

[Mellotron]

I don't often read the Daily Mail but I thought it would be worth a glance today to see what they thought about the 'flextension'. Some great howls of anguish but there's a fantastic rant from someone called k u anon who's putting up post after post that maintains that the EU is part of a Catholic/Jesuit plot to take over the world "that's why it's called the Treaty of Rome and not the Treaty of Europe".

There have been lots of loony posts about the EU in the last three years but his is the best of the lot

You've just caught a glimpse of a massive, terrifying rabbit hole of utter lunatics. More people than you'd think believe some utterly insane conspiracy theories about the EU.

Google The Great Replacement. Also The Tower of Babel/EU theory. Or don't, if you don't want to feel even more depressed at the rampant anti-intellectualism prevalent today.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Waffle...... It's not going to happen, both the Irish and the UK have said there will be no hard border in the event if no deal..... Do you think the EU will build it on Irish soil? The Irish will not build it regardless of what the EU say..... You don't seem to understand that the legal/technical reasons to build a hard border EU and non EU country are far outweighed and superceded by realpolitik. The good Friday agreement and peace in Ireland. That is, will and will always come before any legal basis.... There is nobody who will build your imaginary border posts.

I thought you also realised that the customs union doesn't solve the border issues? Do you understand what the CU is and how it works? Obviously not, the customs union proposed in the backstop is not about solving the Irish border problem because the customs union can't........

You know the British and Irish between themselves had made technical progress on the Irish border/good Friday agreement early in this process, when the EU insisted to Ireland, to end all bilateral talks and only let the EU deal with the UK, after which the backstop emerged and May, stupidly agreed...... The backstop (customs union ) is nothing to do with borders or tariff free trade as an insurance policy (as branded) it is the bridge to the exact future relationship the EU insists we have with them(CU), thus why we can't escape it unless they allow us. It's the reason that even though the EU plan to use technology to do checks away from the border in event of no deal on Irish insistence and neither UK or Ireland will build border posts, when we ask for the same to replace backstop, they say it's not possible. The Irish hard border is the biggest red herring in the whole brexit process. Politics always trump's technicality.

I agree totally that it's not going to happen because, as I have said all along, 'No deal' won't happen for a number of reasons. (The Customs Union/Border issue being a significant one)

I assume that the 'Waffle' is directed at me, The European Chief spokesman, Angela Merkel and the EU in general, so at least I am in good company

I notice that your answer to the Customs Union / Hard Border conundrum is still the technological one that has been talked about for 3 years but nobody seems to even be able to give an outline of, let alone something implementable.

Oh well, although we are not going to agree about this, at least we agree that 'no deal' is not going to happen.

 

[Mental Lental]

We've had a few 'gates' on the NSC Brexit thread over the last 3 years, but the fallout from 'Ignorelistgate' is probably top of the tree and rumbles on-and-on - and it just got even better:

Having looked at that list again just now I notice one particular user name, who I can only assume is on it for football related posts as I can't recall him ever engaging in Brexit related discussion, and realised that I personally know him and will be seeing him and drinking with him from noon tomorrow prior to us all going to the game.

(For what it's worth he voted leave too )

It would have been either being a no dealer or extreme illiteracy. Or repeated Hughton out posts. Those are the main triggers.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Brilliant move !

They rejected that date last request.

*rolls eyes*. Again.

I wonder what Labour will do now in regards to carrying on talking to May?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

What if, what if....... What if the EU actually had an army, or wasn't paralysed in decision making by needing 27 unanimous signatories as was the case in sanctioning Russia due to Crimea. Russia won't split NATO, and whilst we retain our nuclear deterent they will not attack or invade, but Putin will play his subversive games either way.

*What if* is very useful in risk analysis.

Best just dial back the anti-evil-EU rhetoric.

The Kremlin divide and conquer game is the oldest strategy in the book.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Then there is Cyprus. Our British bases in Cyprus are British territory.

Rather irrelevent given they will remain so regardless of what happens with our EU membership.

 

[WATFORD zero]

There are not your points though. All you ever do if post links. As I say you are a know all, without knowing **** all. I have read this for the past few months, and you never change.

When someone does make a point that makes one of your links null and void, and run and hide and completely blank them. You have done it over and over again, so what is the point in having a discussion with you. You have no point, therefore you cannot argue a point, yet all you do is ask people to respond to points you don't make. You would make the perfect UK M.P. So anyone who has followed this thread for a while, doesn't bother to try and discuss anything with you anymore, because they may as well talk to a brick wall.

Everyone who has followed this thread for more than a few days must have worked that out about you by now, surely.

Well you've obviously read the post and the links, so if you think I'm wrong what other option do you think there is other than Customs Union or Hard Border ?

When someone does make a point that makes one of your links null and void, and run and hide and completely blank them.

Well

 

[ManOfSussex]

It would have been either being a no dealer or extreme illiteracy. Or repeated Hughton out posts. Those are the main triggers.

It would definitely only have been Hughton out posts then. I know I'll be hearing such talk tomorrow after the game from him.

 

[portlock seagull]

Whilst you're accusing others of waffling, please think about the whole picture. The Good Friday Agreement is an international treaty signed under the auspices of the United Nations. It meant both sides being free to trade without a border because both sides were in the EU.

Then look at Gibraltar and Spain. Gibraltar has an MEP in the EU Parliament. They vote along with the South West of England, so there is a similar situation there as in Ireland.
Then there is Cyprus. Our British bases in Cyprus are British territory.

It isn't waffle.

It was in the context of that particular spat. I think you’re confusing with it sounding too dismissive for what is a sensitive matter after all. But IMO I think the Backstop row has been overplayed / used as political capital to stop Brexit. Threats of a return to war etc when hars borders exist all over the world without violence. And a hard border isn’t going to happen, all sides are agreed in that and have been for some time.

But if the war resumes - and there’s plenty of evidence it’s never ended despite pieces of paper being signed - I think Brexit will be used as a convenient scapegoat (as it will be for England not winning the World Cup, the NHS etc etc) because tensions have always been there, how could they possibly go away when Republicans goal is still a united Eire; whilst Unionists literally say “over my dead body” and neither side is prepared to compromise. So really, we’ve kept a lid on the level of violence but the Irish question Gladstone and Disraeli wrestled with remains unsolved. Btw, I know you know all this as you’re a well read history buff with first hand experience of this particular chapter (the troubles) even if we often disagree!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Hang on, wasn't leaving about taking back control, and our own sovereignty. Are you telling me, Mr Rees-Mogg, that we actually have power in the EU Parliament?

[tweet]1114098924263038976[/tweet]

Spoken like a person who is going to miss out on millions

 

[ManOfSussex]

Peston's take on things - https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-05/may-uses-letter-to-eu-to-pressurise-corbyn-to-do-deal/

 

[Is it PotG?]

Peston's take on things - https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-05/may-uses-letter-to-eu-to-pressurise-corbyn-to-do-deal/

I do hope that man has shaved today, always looks like he needs a cup of soup.

 

[narly101]

I do hope that man has shaved today, always looks like he needs a cup of soup.

Can't stand the man.

 

[peterward]

Whilst you're accusing others of waffling, please think about the whole picture. The Good Friday Agreement is an international treaty signed under the auspices of the United Nations. It meant both sides being free to trade without a border because both sides were in the EU.

Then look at Gibraltar and Spain. Gibraltar has an MEP in the EU Parliament. They vote along with the South West of England, so there is a similar situation there as in Ireland.
Then there is Cyprus. Our British bases in Cyprus are British territory.

It isn't waffle.

Cyprus and Gibraltar are separate issues. The Irish hard border in case of no deal, and need of a backstop (CU) as insurance is a negotiating position and not reality, when under no circumstances will a hard border ever be built....it is a red herring. Yes single market rules will insist on a hard border, but politics won't allow it. The Good Friday agreement commits both the UK and Ireland to not have a hard border between NI and Ireland, it's not contingent on EU membership. It also required a devolved assembly is Stormont (and that's not being enacted either).

Obviously the Irish border is a massive issue for both communities either side, keeping it open and free of hard border posts in the number 1 imperative of both UK and Ireland to maintain peace and the GFA. It's why both sides have insisted they won't build a border and why whatever external body may try and insist would be ignored in the greater interest of peace and politics.... The issue is however being used with great effect by the EU as leverage in negotiations.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

The EU will not put themselves in the sort of constitutional mess we have gotten into. Any further extension will require us to hold elections for MEP's, if they end up never taking their seats, then that is fine, but if we are still able to revoke and stay, then we must have MEP's able to take their seats.

Unfortunately our turn-out for European elections is very poor. If we hold them this time, a heap of people will ignore them on the grounds that they are just a technicality imposed by the extension. Farage's army of nationalist morons will be whipped to vote though, and when the dust settles our contingent of MEP's will be a mob of barely literate, hard-right wreckers, who if they bother to ever turn up in Brussels, will do nothing but seek to disrupt.

Bad times.

 

[portlock seagull]

So after your angry rants last night, you've just proved that what I posted was EXACTLY what you meant. You couldn't make it up!

Oh not u again! Mine weren’t angry, and if they were, about time you reaped what you sowed given I didn’t rise to your insults. Once more you’ve drive off down Tangent Alley and subsequently are mistaken, compounding your misunderstandings using out of context quotes that have no relevance. Still you appear delighted, like a maths novice who fortuitously arrives at the right answer using the wrong formula. Nil point in other words.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Cyprus and Gibraltar are separate issues. The Irish hard border in case of no deal, and need of a backstop (CU) as insurance is a negotiating position and not reality, when under no circumstances will a hard border ever be built....it is a red herring. Yes single market rules will insist on a hard border, but politics won't allow it. The Good Friday agreement commits both the UK and Ireland to not have a hard border between NI and Ireland, it's not contingent on EU membership. It also required a devolved assembly is Stormont (and that's not being enacted either).

Obviously the Irish border is a massive issue for both communities either side, keeping it open and free of hard border posts in the number 1 imperative of both UK and Ireland to maintain peace and the GFA. It's why both sides have insisted they won't build a border and why whatever external body may try and insist would be ignored in the greater interest of peace and politics.... The issue is however being used with great effect by the EU as leverage in negotiations.

That explanation makes things clearer

We both agree it won't happen.

You are saying that if 'no deal' happened, then a solution would have to be found.
I am saying that because there is no solution then 'no deal' will not happen

And I'm not surprised the EU are making a big thing of it. It's sort of fundamental to the EU.

 

[albion68]

It looks like the MPs tried to carry out 'the peoples will' by going for the only 'leave' option that was ever implementable from the day of the referendum. ie the softest of soft Brexits that TM seemed to be heading for.

Unfortunately, this may have been put at risk by a number of 'Hard Brexiteers' voting against it.

You couldn't make it up eh ?

With 2/3rds MP`s being Remain they were going to block Brexit as much as possible ,ERG have not got the numbers .All this soft or hard Brexit is a load of rubbish .When i get on a bus and tell the driver where i want to go i expect him to get me there. Leave should mean leave not this half in half out nonsense.

 

[peterward]

2 big plusses for the customs Union. 1st one, it goes most of the way to solving the issue at the border with Ireland. 2nd it makes selling and buying goods from Europe easier, means a day tripper can fill the boot with wine from Calais instead of a couple of bottles.

However, it is not THE customs union, depending on how close we are in terms to The customs union will make a massive difference for our ability to get in on the FTA's the EU has or replicate them. Membership is still superior.

A long read but makes the case very well why even staying in is better than a CU, it's written by Greg Hands a Tory MP but he's worked under Liam fox for 2 years. If you read it, I'd be interested if you still think a CU is a good idea! https://www.greghands.com/news/five-main-reasons-why-eu-customs-union-would-be-worst-choice-all