[Politics] Brexit

[Two Professors]

The Great Britain pound dropped today after a UK official signaled about a possibility of the “hard” Brexit.
As the date of the final separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union draws closer, chances that the UK and the EU will reach a trade deal before the deadline of March 2019 diminish. Pessimism increased after Trade Secretary Liam Fox said that there is 60% chance of the “no-deal” outcome, blaming “intransigence” of EU officials for that. As a result, the market started to price in a hard Brexit.

From Forex News 6th August, why do Brexiteers deny such things?

The only person I have heard deny no-deal is Watford Gap.Has he seen the light and become a Brexiteer now?

 

[daveinprague]

If out means out, what next?

 

[nicko31]

Ahhh to be a brexiteer. It must be a simple life: if you don't like something or something shows brexit to be bad in any way at all it is just project fear.
It is very Orwellian of them to just dismiss facts.

Must admit I'm quite envious of the groomed Daily Mail readers, ignorance must be bliss. A few on here, mostly old and defined benefit pension schemes

 

[larus]

Any reason why your graph starts in August 2016 and not June 2016?

Okay. If it’s not due to Brexit related concerns, what is causing the drop. There’s a reason, or reasons, so what is causing it?

It's such a small drop as to almost be not newsworthy, but possibly interest rates, maybe the USA policies , maybe influence by the Bank of England. If you're going to link all falls to Brexit you have to link all increases as well. Anyway should be better for you as you don't even live here so you can buy our goods cheaper.

There are many factors which impact currency movements and they are relative to the currency being compared to.

So, the pound has weakened a lot recently against the dollar and this is down to 2 main factors.
First, the underlying strength of the US (4.1% annualised growth now), compared to the UK 0.2% quarter 1 growth. (Before anyone starts on the growth rate of the UK, read back a few posts and see what’s happening in Germany/France as well). UK growth is expect to be higher in Q2 but that’s a separate issue.

Next, the raising of the heat on all sides (the EU and both the remain/leave camps within the UK) foster uncertainty and markets hare uncertainty, so this will cause a loss of confidence in the UK. The underlying strength of the economy is OK, otherwise why did Carney (eventually) raise interest rates and alos bear in mind the employment/unemployment stats in the UK.

This froth around the No Brexit right now is of course impacting the pound, but that’s very different from saying it’s having an impact in the real world. Markets are not some kind of all intelligent force to be relied up. Markets suffer from a herd mentality which can be seen in overpricing and then crashes. If they were intelligent, these bubbles and crashes would not occur.

As Giraffe pointed out though, there were not many headlines when the pound was gradually strengthening from about 1.20 to 1.40, but as soon as it drop, well, it’s major negative news again.

 

[Two Professors]

Shake it all about? (By it I mean their tiny shriveled brexit penises)

All Brexiteer men are hung like horses,remainers are hung like hamsters (it's why they are all miserable).

 

[Giraffe]

All Brexiteer men are hung like horses,remainers are hung like hamsters (it's why they are all miserable).

I concur. Although more Giraffe than horse.

 

[pastafarian]

You're back. I'm pleased as I was worried that maybe you had gone blind.

And a little tip - try and keep your lies consistent. (It makes it a little harder for people to actually pin you down as an idiot, not much harder, but a little)

More deflection
You can guarantee leavers will be upset with the outcome in a few months but avoid revealing what this outcome will be when asked……..surprise surprise.
I thought you had a crystal ball. I bet you deflect again when you reply

I know you don’t believe any longer that “Brexit wont happen”, but just to clarify are you saying you never had the belief or position that “Brexit wont happen” in the past and to say so is a lie?

 

[Ernest]

Mrs T, must be turning in her grave.

Meanwhile sterling is sub USD1.30 for second year running in the middle of the holiday season. More pain for ordinary folks

Brexit just keeps on giving...

More importantly Euro rate slumping towards parity, makes those Spanish holidays more expensive , even more so next year when you'll need a visa etc in your blue passport

 

[pastafarian]

That's for the corruption. The Electoral Commission has investigate both sides and the only one who broke electoral law was VoteLeave.
The police will decide, with the CPS, whether the corruption constitutes criminal charges. That would result in prison sentences, if convicted.

the “guilty” fines and judgements are to be contested too with legal representation involved. So how are they guilty before the process is complete. Even anti Brexit BBC now refers to them as “allegations” since the decision to contest them was made.

Ps The official remain campaign and the lib dems were found guilty of breaking electoral rules during the referendum and admitted so when they paid the fines imposed.

 

[Two Professors]

More importantly Euro rate slumping towards parity, makes those Spanish holidays more expensive , even more so next year when you'll need a visa etc in your blue passport

Just go to Turkey instead,holidays 50% cheaper,bucket loads of lira to the pound.Spain trying to flog 18 million holidays to Tunisians!

 

[nicko31]

More importantly Euro rate slumping towards parity, makes those Spanish holidays more expensive , even more so next year when you'll need a visa etc in your blue passport

Worse if you're going to France,add to that your insurance green card for the car and also forget that EU health card, and forget bringing back loads of cheap booze

Still Nigel "I hate the EU but love living in Europe" Lawson should be OK tucked up in his chateau

 

[pastafarian]

When did the lib dems do that? FAKE NEWS stop peddling project fear.

You really are odd.

Fined £18000
https://www.electoralcommission.org...18,000-for-breaches-of-campaign-finance-rules

 

[Two Professors]

Worse if you're going to France,add to that your insurance green card for the car and also forget that EU health card, and forget bringing back loads of cheap booze

Still Nigel "I hate the EU but love living in Europe" Lawson should be OK tucked up in his chateau

Don't suppose the Labour anti-semites can afford to chase him there.

 

[Two Professors]

Yeah yeah...because brexit is in no way penis compensation by middle aged man having a midlife crisis.

I bet you have a big car,with a very noisy exhaust,and still live with your mum.

 

[Blue3]

I note a new political party is in its embryonic stages, led by the multi-millionaire philanthropist and founder of LoveFilm, Simon Franks, it is being suggested that David Milliband might become its leader

The Establishment trying to split the Labour vote they really are in fear of a Labour victory at the next election

 

[larus]

I note a new political party is in its embryonic stages, led by the multi-millionaire philanthropist and founder of LoveFilm, Simon Franks, it is being suggested that David Milliband might become its leader

The Establishment trying to split the Labour vote they really are in fear of a Labour victory at the next election

Or, in the real world, a new center-left party may be formed due to the Labour Party being taken over by left-wing extremists.
Even though I’m not a Labour voter, this would be a good move for a lot of less extreme Labour voters.


I’d be open to voting for a new party which supports public services but doesn’t look to screw the business/successful people. Sensible tax and spend policies.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I note a new political party is in its embryonic stages, led by the multi-millionaire philanthropist and founder of LoveFilm, Simon Franks, it is being suggested that David Milliband might become its leader

The Establishment trying to split the Labour vote they really are in fear of a Labour victory at the next election

Centre left or just off centre right party with a pro EU agenda with our original opt outs could nail an election in this country

 

[Blue3]

Or, in the real world, a new center-left party may be formed due to the Labour Party being taken over by left-wing extremists.
Even though I’m not a Labour voter, this would be a good move for a lot of less extreme Labour voters.


I’d be open to voting for a new party which supports public services but doesn’t look to screw the business/successful people. Sensible tax and spend policies.

It could be following the French model Macron was not attached to any political party when he become president and had build one from the ground up to be able to form a government

President Trump was not attached to any party and only just won enough votes to be elected Republican candidate

Or could it be the SDP who having at one stage 50% of the projected vote collapsed into oblivion nearly taking the Liberal Party with them

I guess time will tell but I have no doubt that it's an Establishment plot

 

[melias shoes]

[MENTION=17469]melias shoes[/MENTION] knows exactly what he voted for. Ask him.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

'This froth around the No Brexit right now is of course impacting the pound, but that’s very different from saying it’s having an impact in the real world'


But like it or not this is the real world. It will be found in the reduced spending power of UK holiday-makers, the rising prices of goods in the supermarkets and petrol at the pump. It's Brexit-related, it's not good and it might last a long time. I hope it doesn't; but really Leavers can't add 'markets' to the list of people to blame, can they?