[Politics] Brexit

[larus]

UK economy suffers weakest period of GDP growth in five years


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/27/uk-gdp-growth-rate-slows-first-quarter

I’m lookimg forward to [MENTION=240]larus[/MENTION] and his Brexit headbanger makes explaining away this.

I have also previously highlighted, a few times now, the time bomb which is domestic debt. Why isn’t anyone addressing this?

“In another sign of the pressures on household budgets, figures from the Insolvency Service showed the number of people unable to pay their debts in England and Wales reached its highest level in more than five years in the first three months of 2018.
There were 27,388 personal insolvencies in the first quarter of 2018 – the highest quarterly figure since the third quarter of 2012.”

First thing, yes the last quarter of GDP poor. However, this is just the first set of figures for the quarter. More often than not, the revisions are to make GDP higher.

Regarding domestic debt, this is a problem and not just in the UK. However, this is not an issue regarding Brexit - it’s a long-standing problem which has only been exacerbated by the policies of the western Central Banks in response to the financial crisis (the one which all these experts managed to miss - wow, what expertise!!). This had led to assert bubbles in property and stock markets (based on the levels from 2008). This increase in asset prices has meant that those wishing too get on the property market have had to take on more debt. If we were in normal times (which is a subjective view anyway), interest rates would be higher and this would have limited the borrowing ability of people, and would have suppressed house prices to some degree.

This problem of debt is a western problem (most countries but i accept not an issue in Germany). But look at Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, US. There’s huge levels of debt, either domestic or national. Then you have the structural issues with then Eurozone.

Another problem which has impacted the UK is the level of inward immigration which has driven the demand for housing. Supply/Demand issue. Free movement and all that. I know it works both ways, but we suffer more immigration than emigration. The population has grown rapidly over the last 10-15 years.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Post 42502.- you wrote:


“You and others pick out "immediate" recession as a way to write off remainers concerns. Financial experts admit they thought it would happen quicker but they also all agree it is happening. Undeniably.“

Might this just be a matter of semantics?

When I read this at the time I assumed that the poster was using the phrase 'it is happening' in the colloquial sense of 'it will certainly happen'. (In the same way, I fixed a meeting with someone this week - they suggested 10.30 and I replied 'I'm there'. Obviously I wasn't but everyone knows what I meant.)

Was the poster correct in saying there will definitely be a recession as a result of Brexit? That, to use your well-chosen words, is a matter of opinion. Was he wise to employ an example of this fairly common informal English usage on this thread? Maybe not in the circumstances.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Might this just be a matter of semantics?

When I read this at the time I assumed that the poster was using the phrase 'it is happening' in the colloquial sense of 'it will certainly happen'. (In the same way, I fixed a meeting with someone this week - they suggested 10.30 and I replied 'I'm there'. Obviously I wasn't but everyone knows what I meant.)

Was the poster correct in saying there will definitely be a recession as a result of Brexit? That, to use your well-chosen words, is a matter of opinion. Was he wise to employ an example of this fairly common informal English usage on this thread? Maybe not in the circumstances.

If there were to be an 'immediate' recession based on the original timescales then, with the current revised timescales, that immediate recession would start at the beginning of next year (Jan 2019).

Of course, if by Dec 2018, it appears that we are negotiating a further extension or staying in some sort of customs union, or accepting free movement of goods or people or, for arguments sake, staying in the EU in all but name, that may have an effect on those forecasts.

Of course, these are not my opinions of what will happen, just an observation

 

[larus]

Might this just be a matter of semantics?

When I read this at the time I assumed that the poster was using the phrase 'it is happening' in the colloquial sense of 'it will certainly happen'. (In the same way, I fixed a meeting with someone this week - they suggested 10.30 and I replied 'I'm there'. Obviously I wasn't but everyone knows what I meant.)

Was the poster correct in saying there will definitely be a recession as a result of Brexit? That, to use your well-chosen words, is a matter of opinion. Was he wise to employ an example of this fairly common informal English usage on this thread? Maybe not in the circumstances.

No I don’t think so. In his words he says that this is undeniable (that it is happening - the ‘is’ being a recession). He was stating that financial experts are saying we are in a recession which we clearly are not. Even with the poor results of the GDP from ONE QUARTER of 0.1% (which will likely be revised upwards anyway), this equates to 0.4% of growth. Therefore, we are not nor have we been in a recession since the Brexit vote.

And before people want to quote relative performance of the EU to the UK, please bear in mind that the Eurozone is still stimulating it’s economy via QE and the UK is trying to get back to a more ‘normal’ economy (by this I mean no QE and no fiscal stimulus, i.e. the government aiming for a balanced budget, which apart from interest payments it achieved last month).

There are many metrics to indicate the health of an economy. GDP is one (but it’s also not 100% accurate and countries measure their GDP in different ways). Unemployment/employment in this country is good at present, and most new jobs being created now are full time and not zero hours. This is good for the future, as this will keep improving the governments finances, as less money is paid out to the unemployed and gradually, more raised in income taxes. It’s also accepted that someone is better off working that’s being on benefits - self-esteem and more likely to be able to find new work too.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

All I can assume is that it’s a wanna-be Ernest type poster. Trying to post really stupid things and get people to respond, whilst he (I assume a he), sits there knocking one out. No one with even a normal level IQ could seriously post what he/she does and be serious.

After finally realising we are really leaving and the world hasn't ended it appears most Remain contributors seem to have settled on tedious trolling or posting woefully ill-informed nonsense. Interspersed with the occasional Guardianista Hampstead dinner party lecture. On the plus side all the time they spend on here is less time spent boring the hell out of family and friends.

Brexiteer contributions obviously help with their group therapy

 

[Baldseagull]

I find this forum (in general & not just this thread - although a prime example of it) hilarious.

Those that profess to have higher morality & greater intellect than the others (that they look down upon) are normally the 1st to lose the debate by resulting to personal insult & slander when a having a "discussion" (such are their strong held views (that they must be right)).

Have a word with yourselves people

The opinion of an uneducated halfwit, with sawdust for brains.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

I have noticed that the few Brexiteers left on here seem obsessed by where people live, what they do for a living, whether they have a "real" enough job. I see a lot of chips on a few shoulders. The tragedy of it all? The average hard working builder working in the more working class areas of the UK will be the hardest hit come next year.
Still, as long as they have the likes of Larus and JCFG to gloss over it all and hurl insults at anyone unpatriotic enough to question any aspect of Brexit, they'll be fine. For now.

Recent NHBC and RICS surveys showed that the weakest area for house building was London, where housing starts were down by more than a third over the past year.
The biggest rises in house building registrations were in Scotland, with large jumps too in NE and Central England, as well as Wales.
( All areas with traditionally large working class populations )

 

[GT49er]

H'mmm... This is the man who only last week was responding to a post of mine with some bizarre victim-shrouding claim about being called old, thick, right wing and racist. He can't justify this chip-laden stuff of course. Inverting the facts is his only option it seems.

So, in your world, remainers never ranted that leave voters were old, thick right wing and racist? Something seriously wrong with your memory in that case, sunshine.

It happened. A lot. Get over it.

 

[The Clamp]

Post 42502.- you wrote:


“You and others pick out "immediate" recession as a way to write off remainers concerns. Financial experts admit they thought it would happen quicker but they also all agree it is happening. Undeniably.“

So you can't . Pathetic. You're gonna have to raise your game if you want to start debating with me, Son.
Go back and try again.

 

[larus]

So you can't . Pathetic. You're gonna have to raise your game if you want to start debating with me, Son.
Go back and try again.

Sorry old man. Please provide a link to all these experts saying there’s a recession. Hmm, you can’t - just more pathetic bed-weetting from a loser.

0/10.

 

[The Clamp]

Sorry old man. Please provide a link to all these experts saying there’s a recession. Hmm, you can’t - just more pathetic bed-weetting from a loser.

0/10.

Show me where I wrote that. You are a silly little boy with a big mouth, Thankfully you are as thick as shit in a bottle so you get owned on here regularly. Like now.

You can have the last word. I'm off out.

 

[larus]

Show me where I wrote that. You are a silly little boy with a big mouth, Thankfully you are as thick as shit in a bottle so you get owned on here regularly. Like now.

You can have the last word. I'm off out.

I’ve already showed you and quoted it. Post 42502..

Are you naturally really thick, or do you practice really hard? If it’s practice, I will commend you on your dedication and success.

 

[The Clamp]

I’ve already showed you and quoted it. Post 42502..

Are you naturally really thick, or do you practice really hard? If it’s practice, I will commend you on your dedication and success.

No, you haven't. I don't say we are in a recession in that post. But I've indulged your infantile ramblings for too long, I must go. Don't worry about trying to counter me, you're wrong and no amount of your gibberish will change that. Nighty night.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

[MENTION=33848]The Clamp[/MENTION] = [MENTION=5707]Nibble[/MENTION] = @Flouncy McFlounceface?

 

[larus]

No, you haven't. I don't say we are in a recession in that post. But I've indulged your infantile ramblings for too long, I must go. Don't worry about trying to counter me, you're wrong and no amount of your gibberish will change that. Nighty night.

So, these financial experts predicted a recession and you say it’s happening “Undeniably”.

Try debating with the under 7’s. Eventually, when you can give them a good go, push yourself with the under 9’s. You’ll have my full support, my little Cup Cake. I’ll be rooting for you. After all, it’s not the winnings, it’s the taking part.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

So, in your world, remainers never ranted that leave voters were old, thick right wing and racist? Something seriously wrong with your memory in that case, sunshine.

It happened. A lot. Get over it.

Ah, a quick move sideways. Something wrong with your brain, twinkle. You're famous for it. Very. Accept it.

(There you are - anyone can have a go at the Brexit Boys Condescension Shuffle. Even a newcomer like me.)

 

[Baldseagull]

After finally realising we are really leaving and the world hasn't ended it appears most Remain contributors seem to have settled on tedious trolling or posting woefully ill-informed nonsense. Interspersed with the occasional Guardianista Hampstead dinner party lecture. On the plus side all the time they spend on here is less time spent boring the hell out of family and friends.

Brexiteer contributions obviously help with their group therapy

Does being in a customs Union with the EU count as really leaving for you?
I have noticed that whilst the Hard Brexiteers in Parliament are shouting about a betrayal if we remain in the customs union, the public seem much more relaxed about it, including the leavers on here, have you all finally realised we will be Brexiting mostly in name only?

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Does being in a customs Union with the EU count as really leaving for you?
I have noticed that whilst the Hard Brexiteers in Parliament are shouting about a betrayal if we remain in the customs union, the public seem much more relaxed about it, including the leavers on here, have you all finally realised we will be Brexiting mostly in name only?

Very relaxed that we will no longer be helping to contribute toward the £1.3bn it costs to run the EU buildings, the 4000 civil servants, who all earn six figure salaries, the vast swathes of overpaid MEP's and the mind blowing levels of fraud and corruption, all stimulated by protectionism.

 

[Baldseagull]

Very relaxed that we will no longer be helping to contribute toward the £1.3bn it costs to run the EU buildings, the 4000 civil servants, who all earn six figure salaries, the vast swathes of overpaid MEP's and the mind blowing levels of fraud and corruption, all stimulated by protectionism.

I'll give you a tenner if we end up not making contributions to the EU.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Does being in a Customs Union with the EU count as really leaving for you?
I have noticed that whilst the Hard Brexiteers in Parliament are shouting about a betrayal if we remain in the customs union, the public seem much more relaxed about it, including the leavers on here, have you all finally realised we will be Brexiting mostly in name only?

Staying in the customs union would be a betrayal, agreeing to a new customs union where we were unable to negotiate our own trade deals and have to sign up to full regulatory compliance .. the same. A customs arrangement limiting barriers to trading with the EU where we were free to make our own trade deals and had the ultimate say on what regulatory alignment was appropriate would be acceptable and as far as I can see that is where we are heading.

Obviously, the usual extremist suspects on both sides will present this as no change and a betrayal.