[Politics] Brexit

[soistes]

Labour have just won a Council by-election in Worthing. Not sure if there are any special local factors but on the face of it, it looks like an astonishing result and reinforces the feeling that there really may be something new happening, if Labour can now snatch these safe seats deep in Tory England http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/15453732.Labour_s_historic_win_in_Worthing_by_election/


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[JC Footy Genius]

Like the Billionaire newspaper barons weren't interested you mean? The vast majority of elected Tory MP's were making a decision on what was best for the country because Brexit isn't, but the right-wing, self interested rump were not and were manipulating people into voting accordingly. We'll see what happens when it all goes wrong and The EU can't be blamed for our shortcomings anymore.

I thought the usual line about the motivations of newspaper barons re Brexit was having more influence over our Government. As you know Remain had the vast majority of big money/elites backing them. Blimey ManOfSussex praises Tories shock ..



.. there was I thinking the majority of Tory MP's were just taking positions that best suited their careers. Government backed Remain, Remain was expected to win, any ambitious Tory MP knew carreer progression = vote remain.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Labour have just won a Council by-election in Worthing. Not sure if there are any special local factors but on the face of it, it looks like an astonishing result and reinforces the feeling that there really may be something new happening, if Labour can now snatch these safe seats deep in Tory England http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/15453732.Labour_s_historic_win_in_Worthing_by_election/


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Wrong thread?

 

[ManOfSussex]

I thought the usual line about the motivations of newspaper barons re Brexit was having more influence over our Government. As you know Remain had the vast majority of big money/elites backing them. Blimey ManOfSussex praises Tories shock ..



.. there was I thinking the majority of Tory MP's were just taking positions that best suited their careers. Government backed Remain, Remain was expected to win, any ambitious Tory MP knew carreer progression = vote remain.

More influence over The Government, yes, but avoiding The Tax Avoidance Directive is a factor. Whenever in the 2020's The Public Enquiry is held on Brexit, The Tax Avoidance Directive will be a part of it. Sure, UKIP did what they did in The 2014 European Elections, but that Directive was launched at the same time - I'm sure Cameron will be asked what changed his mind from 2013 over holding a referendum though. I'm not praising The Tories - some did the right thing, some didn't, some were cynical - but they're a rabble over Europe as they always have been.

Remain expected to win? Maybe, maybe not. Remember Sir Lynton Crosby told David Cameron he couldn't win this referendum and told Boris Johnson which way the wind was blowing and he whistled with it.

 

[Jim in the West]

Today we hear that RBS is setting up an operation in Amsterdam, initially with 150 employees, in case of a "Hard Brexit". So, this is an institution owned by the UK Government that is moving staff to an EU 27 country as it fears the consequences of Brexit. Good vote of confidence from the government, then....

 

[ManOfSussex]

RBS and banking in Amsterdam - that went well last time. Of all the financial centres in The EU to go and pick a hub they go and pick that one.

 

[cirC]

RBS and banking in Amsterdam - that went well last time. All all the financial centres in The EU to go and pick a hub they go and pick that one.

Lol,didnt it just,.150 jobs just in case the EU get really vindictive.Their problem is,we are not Greece and may just put 2 fingers in the air at them.V for
victory of course, unless we get really messed about!.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

More influence over The Government, yes, but avoiding The Tax Avoidance Directive is a factor. Whenever in the 2020's The Public Enquiry is held on Brexit, The Tax Avoidance Directive will be a part of it. Sure, UKIP did what they did in The 2014 European Elections, but that Directive was launched at the same time - I'm sure Cameron will be asked what changed his mind from 2013 though. I'm not praising The Tories - some did the right thing, some didn't, some were cynical - but they're a rabble over Europe as they always have been.

Remain expected to win? Maybe, maybe not. Remember Sir Lynton Crosby told David Cameron he couldn't win this referendum and told Boris Johnson which way the wind was blowing and he whistled with it.

Lots of guesswork/conspiracy theories then. Or you must have some very well placed sources to know a few newspaper proprietors were influenced by the tax avoidance directive. The Tories divisions over Europe just reflect the electorates views.

Yep remain were expected to win. Does any government call a referendum expecting to lose?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Lots of guesswork/conspiracy theories then. Or you must have some very well placed sources to know a few newspaper proprietors were influenced by the tax avoidance directive. The Tories divisions over Europe just reflect the electorates views.

Yep remain were expected to win. Does any government call a referendum expecting to lose?

Yes, it is guesswork which will all come out in the course of time and questions will be asked in the future - this whole situation is totally unprecedented. Cameron called a referendum he was advised not to. He called it earlier than advised to after the 2015 election win. He was told his strategy on winning it wasn't working. Still, this isn't any normal Government though, and Cameron got away with calling 2 previous referendums but not a 3rd - it's The Conservatives. They win an overall majority in an election for the first time in 23 years and blow it all over Europe yet again inside of 2 - They're a special lot. No doubt in my mind they'll blow it all and fight amongst themselves, as they're doing all the way to March 2019, assuming they last that long of course.

 

[soistes]

Wrong thread?

If you say so.

 

[nicko31]

I still can't fathom out why the poor and disenfranchised didn't vote for an option that was recommended by people who had been screwing them over for decades that guaranteed more of the same. Also surprising that they didn't listen to people who generally view them as a bit thick and racist who are generally doing rather well out of the current system and really couldn't give a toss about them.

Not looking too good for the poor and disenfranchised since the vote, all I see in the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Project fear is slowly creeping towards project reality

 

[nicko31]

Class..

 

[Berty23]

A country with less than 1% of the population of the EU and the one with most to lose from Brexit has stated free trade must happen post Brexit. I wonder if other superpowers like Latvia, Lithuania and Cyprus will offer a view. Someone on here discounted Malta as an irrelevance so won't say them.

 

[Blue3]

Yes, it is guesswork which will all come out in the course of time and questions will be asked in the future - this whole situation is totally unprecedented. Cameron called a referendum he was advised not to. He called it earlier than advised to after the 2015 election win. He was told his strategy on winning it wasn't working. Still, this isn't any normal Government though, and Cameron got away with calling 2 previous referendums but not a 3rd - it's The Conservatives. They win an overall majority in an election for the first time in 23 years and blow it all over Europe yet again inside of 2 - They're a special lot. No doubt in my mind they'll blow it all and fight amongst themselves, as they're doing all the way to March 2019, assuming they last that long of course.

Absolutely David Cameron gambled with three big questions Brexit, the voting system and Scottish indipendance as the song goes two out of three ain't bad

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes, it is guesswork which will all come out in the course of time and questions will be asked in the future - this whole situation is totally unprecedented. Cameron called a referendum he was advised not to. He called it earlier than advised to after the 2015 election win. He was told his strategy on winning it wasn't working. Still, this isn't any normal Government though, and Cameron got away with calling 2 previous referendums but not a 3rd - it's The Conservatives. They win an overall majority in an election for the first time in 23 years and blow it all over Europe yet again inside of 2 - They're a special lot. No doubt in my mind they'll blow it all and fight amongst themselves, as they're doing all the way to March 2019, assuming they last that long of course.

Yep unprecedented which is why I find it strange that so many doom merchants on this thread seem to think they know exactly how it will all play out. Politicians are always advised not to follow a particular course of action by someone. Cameron did the right thing - finally asking the people for a specific mandate for our future relationship with Europe but probably for the wrong reasons (fear of UKIP - well done UKIP). If only he had developed a spine during the pre referendum negotiations events may have turned out very differently.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Yep unprecedented which is why I find it strange that so many doom merchants on this thread seem to think they know exactly how it will all play out. Politicians are always advised not to follow a particular course of action by someone. Cameron did the right thing - finally asking the people for a specific mandate for our future relationship with Europe but probably for the wrong reasons (fear of UKIP - well done UKIP). If only he had developed a spine during the pre referendum negotiations events may have turned out very differently.

The flip side of that coin is people thinking things will be okay or not as bad as 'experts' predicted because it hasn't happened when frankly anything is still possible. I still cannot see how anyone's material circumstances are going to be better off, but this is about so much more than economics. As for Cameron developing a spine it might have helped if he could have asked for something definitive or implemented controls on FOM and benefits that we were already able to do.

As for the lot in charge currently - you honestly think they have a clue? Just look at The Taoiseach's comments today. There has got to be some serious rowing back from the boxed in position The Tories put themselves into on Brexit just to sort out The Irish element to this mess. I cannot see how that can resolved without a major climb-down from the current 'red-line' stance. The Tories are playing with fire there.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

are all the doomsters going to throw themselves off Beachy head come the day,there's some desperate talk on here .
regards
DR

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The flip side of that coin is people thinking things will be okay or not as bad as 'experts' predicted because it hasn't happened when frankly anything is still possible. I still cannot see how anyone's material circumstances are going to be better off, but this is about so much more than economics. As for Cameron developing a spine it might have helped if he could have asked for something definitive or implemented controls on FOM and benefits that we were already able to do.

As for the lot in charge currently - you honestly think they have a clue? Just look at The Taoiseach's comments today. There has got to be some serious rowing back from the boxed in position The Tories put themselves into on Brexit just to sort out The Irish element to this mess. I cannot see how that can resolved without a major climb-down from the current 'red-line' stance. The Tories are playing with fire there.

It's not a flip side because I don't remember anyone on this thread saying transitioning to Brexit and it's aftermath would be pain-free/ guaranteed sunny uplands scenario. We just didn't believe the absolute certainity of the doomongers who forecast economic oblivion which has already been proved woefully innacurate. You also probably couldn't see how Leave could win, how Trump could be elected, how Corbyn could survive let alone have a chance of becoming PM. I think most Brexiteers know it's about so much more than economics I just wish more Remainers did. Cameron went cap in hand to Merkel to ask if there was an chance of negotating a looser arrangement re Freedom of Movement. Answer - Nein.

I'm not saying all was well before the GE but the Tories set out their stall re Brexit and asked for a specific mandate to strengthen their hand. The electorate didn't give them one so the opposite has occurred plus the very people who voted for this increased uncertainity now continually moan the government is in chaos. You mean the Taoiseach saying we could have a deep free trade agreement with the EU and have a bespoke Customs agreement limiting red tape.

In truth the people who were never willing to give Brexit a chance are falling over themselves to talk up difficulties and doomsday scenarios while the rest of us are open to the possibility it can succeed.

 

[ManOfSussex]

It's not a flip side because I don't remember anyone on this thread saying transitioning to Brexit and it's aftermath would be pain-free/ guaranteed sunny uplands scenario. We just didn't believe the absolute certainity of the doomongers who forecast economic oblivion which has already been proved woefully innacurate. You also probably couldn't see how Leave could win, how Trump could be elected, how Corbyn could survive let alone have a chance of becoming PM. I think most Brexiteers know it's about so much more than economics I just wish more Remainers did. Cameron went cap in hand to Merkel to ask if there was an chance of negotating a looser arrangement re Freedom of Movement. Answer - Nein.

I'm not saying all was well before the GE but the Tories set out their stall re Brexit and asked for a specific mandate to strengthen their hand. The electorate didn't give them one so the opposite has occurred plus the very people who voted for this increased uncertainity now continually moan the government is in chaos. You mean the Taoiseach saying we could have a deep free trade agreement with the EU and have a bespoke Customs agreement limiting red tape.

In truth the people who were never willing to give Brexit a chance are falling over themselves to talk up difficulties and doomsday scenarios while the rest of us are open to the possibility it can succeed.

I always thought 'leave' would win. Trump and Corbyn - no.

There is a flip side because I can remember consistent cake and eat it stances on this thread - if your memory has gone selective, fine.

The Taoiseach said what he said today - interrupt it how you like, but you only have to listen to Johnathan Powell talking consistently on the issue of Northern Ireland to see there needs to be major row backs from the current red-line stance to avoid serious problems there.

The election has backfired spectacularly on the Conservatives and their arrogance has come home to roost and their failings are now all too apparent. The fact that Priti Patel comes out and says the Government's Brexit stance is 'very 'clear' and trots out 'The FOM ending in 2019'.....................it's laughable. If you think it can succeed fine, I see enough non-economic damage being done to believe it never will.

 

[Blue3]

I fail to see how free access for goods and people across the Irish boarder can remain surely if was to remain it becomes the conduit through which goods travel tariff free who would be able to tell if the potatoes being sold in UK shops had originated in Northern Ireland or Romania