[Politics] Brexit

[portslade seagull]

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.

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Oh dear a Remain own goal !! . Please keep them coming. You all seem to be doing it

 

[Two Professors]

I think the Sun portrayed it as the EU trying to stop us hard working Brits earning overtime payments, as opposed to trying to give us a healthy work/life balance, and allow some of us to not drop dead from heart attacks.

As I was happily and voluntarily working an 80 hour week and I'm still alive,I regard the Eu directive as an ill thought-out abomination.Some people don't mind working for a living!

 

[vegster]

I suggest you read my post 24068 and then seriously reconsider this naive response.

Yes, the good old future issues once Brexit is triggered. I'm sure you can understand the feelings of those who just don't believe this crap. At what point post Brexit will any bad news not be down to Brexit? 6 months? 12? 24? 60? Really interested, as the Remainers seem to want to link anything which has or may happen at any unforeseen time-frame to us leaving the EU.

At what point do you realise that our fragile recovery from the last recession can be derailed very quickly by global economic confidence in the UK and the Pound ? At what point will you realise that many many people on low wages with high debts are going to be significantly worse off during, and probably after, Brexit in numerous ways ? When do you realise that you are flogging a dream of hope over experience ?

 

[Baldseagull]

I will answer you questions (although I notice that you have failed to answer mine).

I accept that there will be an impact to Brexit as a short-term consequence, but I believe that the opportunities of being a free-trading sovereign state far outweigh the potential impact. However, the initial impact to Sterling is an EMOTIONAL impact based on perceptions of risk. However, as we continue to be successful as a country and the sky does not fall in, I think that the markets attention will get more focused onto the viability of the EURO and the fiscal issues in the US with the expansionary policies of Trump.

I had assumed your questions were rhetorical, and I didn't ask any, but thanks anyway, I have a couple for you here though.

You are right about the initial impact to Sterling being an emotional one, but as we have continued to be relatively successful and the sky has not fallen in, why has it dropped further since the initial emotional response to a leave result?

I am interested to know what you consider "short term" as far as Brexit's economic impact goes?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Early days yet, when Trump and Brexit starts there might well be stock market and currency wobbles and instability. When that happens and the price of our imports rise again since the last £ and $ slide shops will have to pass this on to customers.... When our bills go up and the JAM's stop spending that is when things will start to bite. I think we have all been drinking in the Last Chance Saloon this Christmas and going on a final spending splurge which has skewed the figures. When the credit card bills start rolling in in January and we start to pay the bills that's when we may well hit the buffers.

Yes my point was all about the 'early days' and how many experts/organisations got predictions wrong. As far as I am aware those making predictions tend to be even less accurate in the longer term due to increasing unknown variables. Speaking of one example of this, that you mention. I wonder how much of the pre referendum analysis factored in a Trump win. Yes further currency fluctuations will occur as we exit and Trump starts to enact policies but no one really knows how it will all play out.

 

[larus]

At what point do you realise that our fragile recovery from the last recession can be derailed very quickly by global economic confidence in the UK and the Pound ? At what point will you realise that many many people on low wages with high debts are going to be significantly worse off during, and probably after, Brexit in numerous ways ? When do you realise that you are flogging a dream of hope over experience ?

I agree with you regarding the fragile state of the WORLD economy, but please do not confuse the state of the WORLD economy (problems in China, Japan, US, Europe, etc.) with Brexit.

Yes, some people have borrowed too much money, but this is a separate problem and again affects more than just the UK. However, the effect of Brexit won't alter the level of debt.

Please advise me what you mean by "flogging a dream of hope over experience ?". This is just empty rhetoric and soundbites. Or, to put another way it's crap - just as much as me saying that we will be losing the shackles of the un-elected technocrats and soaring into the future with the guarantee of superb public services, high-paid jobs and early retirement.

You have yet to say if you still agree with implication that our wages have performed the same as Greece, or if you accept that this is just selective use based on exchange rates, and a very different case can be made starting from the end of 2008?

 

[vegster]

I noticed that you conveniently ignored my point that the statistic is complete garbage as it has picked a point in time when Sterling was overvalued (1.52). However, do that same analysis from the end of 2008 when Sterling was 1.02 and let me know what you get then.

No one with a brain cell can possibly compare our performance to that of Greece over the last 8-10 years.

I'm happy to have a sensible debate, but if you want to rely upon this type of statistic to 'defend' your position then it proves that you have lost the debate.

Why correct my minor miscalculation on a statistic that was complete garbage then ?

 

[portslade seagull]

At what point do you realise that our fragile recovery from the last recession can be derailed very quickly by global economic confidence in the UK and the Pound ? At what point will you realise that many many people on low wages with high debts are going to be significantly worse off during, and probably after, Brexit in numerous ways ? When do you realise that you are flogging a dream of hope over experience ?

Do you accept that the last recession was caused by the banks and that we are still in recovery ?. Most privately owned firms had to make the best of it hence wages were frozen for an extended period. Without this many thousands more would have lost there homes/ jobs. Brexit had no bearing on this whatsoever

 

[Baldseagull]

As I was happily and voluntarily working an 80 hour week and I'm still alive,I regard the Eu directive as an ill thought-out abomination.Some people don't mind working for a living!

I am not surprised you needed twice as long as the average worker to get your job done, but well done you for sticking with it.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

You will find it easier to accept what the economists are saying when you see it happen. We could do a great deal that includes free trade on lots of things. However, the ability to sell financial services in the EU is unlikely in the extreme to be included. There may be a bridging period to soften the blow if we are lucky, but the EU may see, and I think one or two member states will see, that the opportunity to grow a financial centre inside the EU will be best served by an immediate cut to London's ability to operate in the EU, or to clear Euro to other currency transactions.

Hilarious. "Grow a financial centre inside the EU". With what The Euro is a mess and will be confetti by 2020. There is a reason why London is the epicentre of European financial trade and trying to undermine that would be a serious mistake.
Any steps to hinder the UK in any way will have negative affect on member states who already deal with us, or who want to deal with us in the future.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.

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Not sure what relevance that Socialist economic bulletin/TUC created chart about out time inside the EU has with the point I was making but never mind. As well as starting from a rather convenient year it also apparently excluded tax + benefit changes.

 

[larus]

I had assumed your questions were rhetorical, and I didn't ask any, but thanks anyway, I have a couple for you here though.

You are right about the initial impact to Sterling being an emotional one, but as we have continued to be relatively successful and the sky has not fallen in, why has it dropped further since the initial emotional response to a leave result?

I am interested to know what you consider "short term" as far as Brexit's economic impact goes?

As I'm sure you are aware markets move to many things, and many are emotional reactions. I accept that Brexit causes uncertainty and all the while there is a lack of clarity (which I think there needs to be as it's a negotiation so it is unknown), then markets will react to rumours.

There will be short-term issues, such as fluctuations in Sterling, and I'm sure there will be some further emotional out-pourings when Article 50 is triggered and then once we actually leave. However, I expect there will have been unofficial negotiations with other countries and some trade deals announced fairly soon after Brexit which will reassure markets/companies of the openness and viability of the UK economy going forward.

 

[larus]

Why correct my minor miscalculation on a statistic that was complete garbage then ?

Er, that wasn't me. Never mind - not going well so far is it

I just pointed out that is was COMPLETE AND UTTER BOLL*CKS as it was using very selective exchange rate data to achieve the figures.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

"By the Spring of 1940 it is estimated that millions of people decided that the war wasn’t going to happen and they began walking the streets without Gas masks. The fear of the impending war began to subside. This however was short lived when suddenly on the 9th April 1940 the war began again."

As the last phoney war entered went past the six month stage I guess that there were plenty of people on the Clapham omnibuses complaining about the doom and gloom merchants.

Sailing a bit close to a 'Godwins Law' yellow card offence there

 

[Two Professors]

I am not surprised you needed twice as long as the average worker to get your job done, but well done you for sticking with it.

Well done you for not surprising me with an intelligent comment for the first time on this thread.Well done you for having ingrained prejudices against the British working classes.I was working for a British company,producing parts for a British quality car,when demand out-stripped supply,before europhiles decided 'buy anything but British' was fashionable.

 

[pb21]

Do you accept that the last recession was caused by the banks...

Nah absolutely not, the global recession was caused by labour, every fool knows that!

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Wonder what 'expert' came up with that figure of millions?

I suppose they just noted the proportion of people not carrying gas masks and extrapolated it. Your point is?

 

[Soulman]

Maybe we can delve back to WW1, because things have not changed and we could get another comparison.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Well done you for not surprising me with an intelligent comment for the first time on this thread.Well done you for having ingrained prejudices against the British working classes.I was working for a British company,producing parts for a British quality car,when demand out-stripped supply,before europhiles decided 'buy anything but British' was fashionable.

Ironic to claim ingrained prejudices with that last statement.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Well done you for not surprising me with an intelligent comment for the first time on this thread.Well done you for having ingrained prejudices against the British working classes.I was working for a British company,producing parts for a British quality car,when demand out-stripped supply,before europhiles decided 'buy anything but British' was fashionable.

Just to check. You are actually saying that the reason people didn't buy British cars in those days was because they were prejudiced Europhiles? Nothing to do with most of those cars not being good enough? Out of interest though, what quality British car are you referring to? (I had an uncle with a DB2/4 and that was wonderful. Perhaps it was that.)