[Politics] Brexit

[vegster]

Nice of you to put in bold the crucial element to a steady rise in the value of the pound, a steep drop first.
Of course there will be a rise, when you hit bottom, the only way is up.
I would like to add something to your point about the EU not doing much in providing FS access in trade deals. Britain has the ability to push for things to be included in deals, if a bunch of Walloons can hold up a deal with Canada over their concerns, do you think a British government, the second largest contributor to EU coffers, might have been able to steer things a bit more in our favour, if they could be bothered?
This is a failing of British Governments, instead of engaging and getting other nations onside, we have always tried to get special exemptions for Britain from this or that, rather than try to shape the EU, we have let it go, as long as we did not have to get involved in that area.

You now have to trust the people that failed to make the EU work for Britain as well as it should have, to get the best out of new arrangements with the rest of the world.

I remember when the EU tried to push through a working week maximum hours agreement our government was desperate to avoid that as we all love working 60 hours plus a week.

 

[vegster]

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.

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So our average wage has fallen by almost 17% compared to the OECD average, I think that says it all. Brexit is going to have to be miraculous to have any effect on our economy.... hands up anyone here who believes that Boris,Davis,Fox and May can do miracles ?

 

[Soulman]

So our average wage has fallen by almost 17% compared to the OECD average, I think that says it all. Brexit is going to have to be miraculous to have any effect on our economy.... hands up anyone here who believes that Boris,Davis,Fox and May can do miracles ?

So our wages were falling all those years we were in the good old looking after us/protecting us EU. So these figures were pro the referendum. Thanks for posting the figures.

 

[BigGully]

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.

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But this is historical data from when we were embedded within the EU ..............................

 

[BigGully]

Early days yet, when Trump and Brexit starts there might well be stock market and currency wobbles and instability. When that happens and the price of our imports rise again since the last £ and $ slide shops will have to pass this on to customers.... When our bills go up and the JAM's stop spending that is when things will start to bite. I think we have all been drinking in the Last Chance Saloon this Christmas and going on a final spending splurge which has skewed the figures. When the credit card bills start rolling in in January and we start to pay the bills that's when we may well hit the buffers.

Again you have pushed your gloom and doom forecast just further upstream, this seems to be your monthly newsletter.

I do however agree that there will be a few wobbles along the way, thats what happens whether we are in or out its the nature of business and world economies, probably more driven by upsets inside the EU regions and more stagnation in its economy in the coming months.

I cannot fathom why this years credit card bills should somehow be more problematic than previous years, the employment figures seem strong and we have historically low interest rates, what is unique to this years January's bills compared to previous years that make you come to such a conclusion ?

 

[studio150]

There are two industries that will be hit particularly hard by not having the same status in the EU, Financial Services and Aviation. Whilst we should not be so reliant on FS to support the economy, the fact is we are.

I think some leavers don't understsnd or don't want to accept the importance of financial services as some tend to look at each sector as being equal for some strange reason.

But Financial Services employ 7% of the UK workforce produce almost 12% of economic output. Pay £66bn in taxes and provide a £72bn trade surplus.
But no doubt leavers are happy too see this sector shrink as they see it as an acceptable cost and there will be vacancies in fruit picking as replacement employment opportunities

 

[Baldseagull]

Totally agree. It's difficult to accept the scaremongering economists bullshit anymore. IMHO anything done to make our exit painful will hurt remaining member states far more than us and would probably trigger more discontent for the EU, not something they want at all. To suggest we will not be able to trade effectively with the EU is total bollocks.

You will find it easier to accept what the economists are saying when you see it happen. We could do a great deal that includes free trade on lots of things. However, the ability to sell financial services in the EU is unlikely in the extreme to be included. There may be a bridging period to soften the blow if we are lucky, but the EU may see, and I think one or two member states will see, that the opportunity to grow a financial centre inside the EU will be best served by an immediate cut to London's ability to operate in the EU, or to clear Euro to other currency transactions.

 

[larus]

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.

View attachment 80581

I don't know where you got that from but it's plain LIES. Greece, which has youth unemployment of over 50%, where vast numbers of people are using soup kitchens and worse has had the same wage performance as the UK.

I'm not saying that things have been rosy in the UK, but there aren't vast swathes of people at that level of poverty (poverty is alos a subjective matter). But no one with even average intelligence could really believe that chart. It's complete and utter garbage and not worthy of debate.

 

[Baldseagull]

But this is historical data from when we were embedded within the EU ..............................

As were Germany, France and Spain, so you have to think, what was the difference here? UK Government policy is my answer, if you have a better one I would like to see it.

 

[GT49er]

So our average wage has fallen by almost 17% compared to the OECD average, I think that says it all. Brex,it is going to have to be miraculous to have any effect on our economy.... hands up anyone here who believes that Boris,Davis,Fox and May can do miracles ?

Never accept economic arguments from people who claim that 10.4 plus 6.7 is almost 17 - it's more than 17. Thankfully Remain's economic arguments lost the referendum!

 

[BigGully]

I think some leavers don't understsnd or don't want to accept the importance of financial services as some tend to look at each sector as being equal for some strange reason.

But Financial Services employ 7% of the UK workforce produce almist 12% of economic output. Pay £66bn in taxes and provide a £72bn trade surplus.
But no doubt leavers are happy too see this sector shrink as they see it as an acceptable cost and thete will be vacancies in fruit picking as replavement employment opportunities

Perhaps you do not understand that Financial Services might not take flight to somewhere else, its just your view nothing more substaintive than that.

If this does shrink we can revisit it, but its tiresome that you continually project negative data directly associated to Brexit even whilst current data discredits your earlier forecasts.

 

[Baldseagull]

I remember when the EU tried to push through a working week maximum hours agreement our government was desperate to avoid that as we all love working 60 hours plus a week.

I think the Sun portrayed it as the EU trying to stop us hard working Brits earning overtime payments, as opposed to trying to give us a healthy work/life balance, and allow some of us to not drop dead from heart attacks.

 

[larus]

Nice of you to put in bold the crucial element to a steady rise in the value of the pound, a steep drop first.
Of course there will be a rise, when you hit bottom, the only way is up.
I would like to add something to your point about the EU not doing much in providing FS access in trade deals. Britain has the ability to push for things to be included in deals, if a bunch of Walloons can hold up a deal with Canada over their concerns, do you think a British government, the second largest contributor to EU coffers, might have been able to steer things a bit more in our favour, if they could be bothered?
This is a failing of British Governments, instead of engaging and getting other nations onside, we have always tried to get special exemptions for Britain from this or that, rather than try to shape the EU, we have let it go, as long as we did not have to get involved in that area.

You now have to trust the people that failed to make the EU work for Britain as well as it should have, to get the best out of new arrangements with the rest of the world.

Christ, what is it with you Remainers. Where did I state a STEEP drop? There MAY be a drop due to uncertainty as financial markets hate uncertainty, but these experts (who the remain side seem so keen on quoting) are predicting Sterling will be higher than it is now in a couple of years.

Hope that's not too difficult to comprehend.

 

[CheeseRolls]

I don't know where you got that from but it's plain LIES. Greece, which has youth unemployment of over 50%, where vast numbers of people are using soup kitchens and worse has had the same wage performance as the UK.

I'm not saying that things have been rosy in the UK, but there aren't vast swathes of people at that level of poverty (poverty is alos a subjective matter). But no one with even average intelligence could really believe that chart. It's complete and utter garbage and not worthy of debate.

Unemployment rate and wage inflation are related but certainly not one and the same thing. Whilst UK employment figures remain high there can be no doubting the impact of zero hours contracts.

However this was something of a mischievous post and the source is the Socialist Economic Bulletin, with little or no sources quoted to back this assertion.

 

[larus]

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.

View attachment 80581

I don't know where you got that from but it's plain LIES. Greece, which has youth unemployment of over 50%, where vast numbers of people are using soup kitchens and worse has had the same wage performance as the UK.

I'm not saying that things have been rosy in the UK, but there aren't vast swathes of people at that level of poverty (poverty is alos a subjective matter). But no one with even average intelligence could really believe that chart. It's complete and utter garbage and not worthy of debate.

I've just realised what they have done here which is very disingenuous. They have taken a starting point when Sterling was overvalued against the Euro.



See the rate in 2007 was over 1.52, so they have taken an over-inflated rate and then used that in the comparison. Why not take the end of 2008 when the rate was 1.02 and use this for comparison.

See, COMPLETE AND UTTER BOLL*CKS. Don't waste our time with SH*T like this.

 

[larus]

Unemployment rate and wage inflation are related but certainly not one and the same thing. Whilst UK employment figures remain high there can be no doubting the impact of zero hours contracts.

However this was something of a mischievous post and the source is the Socialist Economic Bulletin, with little or no sources quoted to back this assertion.

Mischievous post!!!! No, outright bloody propaganda, that's what shit like this is. You probably have great pleasure slagging off the Leave campaign for the £350m claim yet have no qualms posting crap like this.

You have been shown to be willing to LIE (or repeat LIES) to support your position.

 

[vegster]

Again you have pushed your gloom and doom forecast just further upstream, this seems to be your monthly newsletter.

I do however agree that there will be a few wobbles along the way, thats what happens whether we are in or out its the nature of business and world economies, probably more driven by upsets inside the EU regions and more stagnation in its economy in the coming months.

I cannot fathom why this years credit card bills should somehow be more problematic than previous years, the employment figures seem strong and we have historically low interest rates, what is unique to this years January's bills compared to previous years that make you come to such a conclusion ?[/QUOTE]

All the sales figures seem to be pointing towards a bumper Christmas yet as seen in recent earlier posts our average earnings have declined significantly over the last 8 years. So where has all the money we are spending come from ? are those who are better off doing all the spending or are we taking advantage of our historically low interest rates ? Is that why the average debt of UK citizens is increasing ? As we all know debt is a bad thing as eventually ( unless you are a bank ) it has to be paid .

As for posting my doom and gloom upstream I have said for ages that things will wobble before Brexit but the real mess won't come til it's triggered.

 

[vegster]

I think the Sun portrayed it as the EU trying to stop us hard working Brits earning overtime payments, as opposed to trying to give us a healthy work/life balance, and allow some of us to not drop dead from heart attacks.

Exactly, the British Worker enjoys being exploited by employers and government.

 

[Baldseagull]

Perhaps you do not understand that Financial Services might not take flight to somewhere else, its just your view nothing more substaintive than that.

If this does shrink we can revisit it, but its tiresome that you continually project negative data directly associated to Brexit even whilst current data discredits your earlier forecasts.

We cannot revisit it, if we do not do a deal that allow Financial services to be sold to EU businesses, that portion of it will go to an EU country. It is not a guess, it is a fact. The Swiss model of bi-lateral agreements which includes free movement of people, does not give it's banks the ability to sell into the EU from Zurich. I can't see us getting it, not without massive contributions to the EU coffers, most likely in excess of what we currently pay.
About half of the Financial services business is sold in to other countries, one third of that is sold into the EU, about £60Bn.

 

[larus]

Again you have pushed your gloom and doom forecast just further upstream, this seems to be your monthly newsletter.

I do however agree that there will be a few wobbles along the way, thats what happens whether we are in or out its the nature of business and world economies, probably more driven by upsets inside the EU regions and more stagnation in its economy in the coming months.

I cannot fathom why this years credit card bills should somehow be more problematic than previous years, the employment figures seem strong and we have historically low interest rates, what is unique to this years January's bills compared to previous years that make you come to such a conclusion ?

All the sales figures seem to be pointing towards a bumper Christmas yet as seen in recent earlier posts our average earnings have declined significantly over the last 8 years. So where has all the money we are spending come from ? are those who are better off doing all the spending or are we taking advantage of our historically low interest rates ? Is that why the average debt of UK citizens is increasing ? As we all know debt is a bad thing as eventually ( unless you are a bank ) it has to be paid .

As for posting my doom and gloom upstream I have said for ages that things will wobble before Brexit but the real mess won't come til it's triggered.

I suggest you read my post 24068 and then seriously reconsider this naive response.

Yes, the good old future issues once Brexit is triggered. I'm sure you can understand the feelings of those who just don't believe this crap. At what point post Brexit will any bad news not be down to Brexit? 6 months? 12? 24? 60? Really interested, as the Remainers seem to want to link anything which has or may happen at any unforeseen time-frame to us leaving the EU.