[Politics] Brexit

[cunning fergus]

I think you make a good point. There is a tendency to blame every negative effect on Brexit, as if all were sweetness before the vote, and all is crap afterwards. It's not correct but it's going to happen.

Some prime examples. The IFS study reported as fact the fall in real wages post 2008-2013, but that was largely ignored and instead people focused on the difference between their 2021 forecast pre and post Brexit. Greece is still in tatters and has been since 2008. The Italian banking system remains on life support and could expire at any moment. RBS is still in the sh*t and has been since 2008.

But nope, all was going fine before the referendum. Honest.

The Italian story has been a long burn that no one has wanted to highlight, even during the referendum, I was always surprised about that.

The reality is that whether Renzi wins the referendum or not Italy is a basket case economy, its banks are all but bust (bar Uni Credit) and to deal with the problem under EU rules essentially Italian pension holders who make up a disproportionate percentage of the banks bond holders would have to take a massive haircut.

This is an issue without end and the system is teetering on the brink waiting for the next shock to deal it death blow.

I doubt a "no" vote will be the death blow itself, however I note the price of CDS of Italian bonds has gone up 25% in recent weeks so it is likely to be a step closer.

Given all the UK centric Brexit reporting, the prospect of the UK bailing out Italian banks would be incendiary............in short, the end is thankfully nigh.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Of course, one can never accuse Boris of backtracking, we can be quite sure that he backtracks..

I'm not the biggest fan of Boris. However, name a politician you like and I'm certain we can find backtracking.

 

[Baldseagull]

The Italian story has been a long burn that no one has wanted to highlight, even during the referendum, I was always surprised about that.

The reality is that whether Renzi wins the referendum or not Italy is a basket case economy, its banks are all but bust (bar Uni Credit) and to deal with the problem under EU rules essentially Italian pension holders who make up a disproportionate percentage of the banks bond holders would have to take a massive haircut.

This is an issue without end and the system is teetering on the brink waiting for the next shock to deal it death blow.

I doubt a "no" vote will be the death blow itself, however I note the price of CDS of Italian bonds has gone up 25% in recent weeks so it is likely to be a step closer.

Given all the UK centric Brexit reporting, the prospect of the UK bailing out Italian banks would be incendiary............in short, the end is thankfully nigh.

It would be the right thing to do, in conjuction with others. BoE can just magic up 70Bn for the UK on the back of the leave vote, I am sure we could lend a little to Italian banks.

 

[ManOfSussex]

After reading the article, it states "
"He did not say he supported freedom of movement and challenges anyone to show proof that he ever said that."
So more stirring.

The article says:

A spokesman for the home secretary said "He did not say he supported freedom of movement and challenges anyone to show proof that he ever said that."

In the words of Mandy Rice-Davies - Well he would say that, wouldn't he? He was probably just tired and emotional again when he spoke to the 4 ambassadors.

 

[Jim in the West]

My leave vote was to end supremacy of the ECj,It was to return more law making powers to westminster, it was to leave being members of the EU single market, it was to trade with them as non members. My vote was to regain control of our borders and end free movement so everyone EU and non EU have to play by the same rules to enter the country free from discrimination.

i have no idea who you are labelling as "them"

By the way (I'm sure this has been pointed out in this thread somewhere else, but I'm an occasional visitor, and can't claim to have read everything on here): The Single Market and the EU are NOT the same thing. The single market applies across the whole European Economic Area (EEA). We did NOT vote to leave the EEA. It is entirely logical to leave the EU yet stay members of the Single Market. If the UK government believes so strongly in the will of the people (on this point), it should actually ask them whether we want to leave the Single Market. The question we voted on in June was NOT a question about the single market.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

By the way (I'm sure this has been pointed out in this thread somewhere else, but I'm an occasional visitor, and can't claim to have read everything on here): The Single Market and the EU are NOT the same thing. The single market applies across the whole European Economic Area (EEA). We did NOT vote to leave the EEA. It is entirely logical to leave the EU yet stay members of the Single Market. If the UK government believes so strongly in the will of the people (on this point), it should actually ask them whether we want to leave the Single Market. The question we voted on in June was NOT a question about the single market.

Good point. The Single Market was, and is fine. Everyone in the EEA wanted it way back when and still does, including us. One of the reasons for it was to stop a single country from becoming too powerful ( Germany?) so the EU and Euro were a complete reversal of that and we never agreed to it, one of the reasons we kept our own currency, thank f***. Iv'e got a funny feeling that the Germans will be back to pushing wheelbarrows of Euros to join the bread queues if the French and Italians get a referendum and dump their EU membership/Euro.

 

[mikeyjh]

By the way (I'm sure this has been pointed out in this thread somewhere else, but I'm an occasional visitor, and can't claim to have read everything on here): The Single Market and the EU are NOT the same thing. The single market applies across the whole European Economic Area (EEA). We did NOT vote to leave the EEA. It is entirely logical to leave the EU yet stay members of the Single Market. If the UK government believes so strongly in the will of the people (on this point), it should actually ask them whether we want to leave the Single Market. The question we voted on in June was NOT a question about the single market.

Well put, it's good to try and have a debate on where we go next but so long as the fantasists on here insist that every single on the 51.9% voted for hard brexit, we don't get very far....

 

[JC Footy Genius]

By the way (I'm sure this has been pointed out in this thread somewhere else, but I'm an occasional visitor, and can't claim to have read everything on here): The Single Market and the EU are NOT the same thing. The single market applies across the whole European Economic Area (EEA). We did NOT vote to leave the EEA. It is entirely logical to leave the EU yet stay members of the Single Market. If the UK government believes so strongly in the will of the people (on this point), it should actually ask them whether we want to leave the Single Market. The question we voted on in June was NOT a question about the single market.

Numerous main players on all sides made it very clear Voting Leave = ending our membership of the single market. Perhaps you weren't listening?



Or maybe you were ....

The crazy thing is - if we vote Brexit, there will definitely NOT be any noticeable reduction in immigration. We will either (a) negotiate access to the Single Market and therefore continue to have free movement of people, or (b) we will go completely our own way, and Non-EU immigration will rise to fill the gap. This is the cruel economic reality. The likes of Boris and Gove won't tell you this, because it would destroy their only real argument for a Brexit. However, after the vote things will be VERY different.....

If you didn't think Brexit mean't leaving the Single Market why would we need to negotiate access to it?

 

[Steve in Japan]

By the way (I'm sure this has been pointed out in this thread somewhere else, but I'm an occasional visitor, and can't claim to have read everything on here): The Single Market and the EU are NOT the same thing. The single market applies across the whole European Economic Area (EEA). We did NOT vote to leave the EEA. It is entirely logical to leave the EU yet stay members of the Single Market. If the UK government believes so strongly in the will of the people (on this point), it should actually ask them whether we want to leave the Single Market. The question we voted on in June was NOT a question about the single market.

If membership of the EEA were available without having to adhere to the rest of the EU's rules, then yes I'd vote for that. But that's not an option available to us. As Switzerland's experience shows us.

 

[5ways]

Numerous main players on all sides made it very clear Voting Leave = ending our membership of the single market. Perhaps you weren't listening?



Or maybe you were ....



If you didn't think Brexit mean't leaving the Single Market why would we need to negotiate access to it?

I was paying attention and Leave did not make a point about leaving the Single Market because that idea was and is economic insanity. They made a big point about leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving Europe and £350m quid a week for the NHS.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I was paying attention and Leave did not make a point about leaving the Single Market because that idea was and is economic insanity. They made a big point about leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving Europe and £350m quid a week for the NHS.

And stopping too many foreigners from coming here. I'm sure that was mentioned.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

If you didn't think Brexit mean't leaving the Single Market why would we need to negotiate access to it?

I'm certain it was just the EU which was mentioned on the ballot paper. Happy to be shown otherwise

As for this question...EEA is Included in your EU membership. Hence you leave the EU you need to ask to join the EEA. It's quite simple and we were never asked to leave the EEA so May has to try and get back in. Otherwise she will be going beyond her remit.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I was paying attention and Leave did not make a point about leaving the Single Market because that idea was and is economic insanity. They made a big point about leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving Europe and £350m quid a week for the NHS.

You were and you also thought Brexit meant leaving the Single market before the referendum.

 

[GT49er]

I'm certain it was just the EU which was mentioned on the ballot paper. Happy to be shown otherwise

As for this question...EEA is Included in your EU membership. Hence you leave the EU you need to ask to join the EEA. It's quite simple and we were never asked to leave the EEA so May has to try and get back in. Otherwise she will be going beyond her remit.

As the decision as to whether or not we rejoin the EEA rests ultimately with the members of the EEA, not us, it is hardly fair to allocate it to the PM's remit. She can ask, of course...................................

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I'm certain it was just the EU which was mentioned on the ballot paper. Happy to be shown otherwise

As for this question...EEA is Included in your EU membership. Hence you leave the EU you need to ask to join the EEA. It's quite simple and we were never asked to leave the EEA so May has to try and get back in. Otherwise she will be going beyond her remit.

Yes and one of the main reasons why many remainers wanted to stay in the EU was to retain our membership of the Single market which many seem to conveniently but amusingly forget they said pre referendum.

Not sure what your point is. If the membership of the EEA is included in our EU membership (pack?) then we vote to leave the EU we also leave the EEA ?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

As the decision as to whether or not we rejoin the EEA rests ultimately with the members of the EEA, not us, it is hardly fair to allocate it to the PM's remit. She can ask, of course...................................

It's totally fair. No one ever said being would be PM easy. Are you suggesting it's beyond her ability?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

You were and you also thought Brexit meant leaving the Single market before the referendum.

I appreciate this is not my discussion but, out of interest, what difference does this make?

 

[GT49er]

It's totally fair. No one ever said being would be PM easy. Are you suggesting it's beyond her ability?

I'm saying she can ask. If re-admission is refused by the members, that is out of her hands.

 

[mikeyjh]

Numerous main players on all sides made it very clear Voting Leave = ending our membership of the single market. Perhaps you weren't listening?



Or maybe you were ....



If you didn't think Brexit mean't leaving the Single Market why would we need to negotiate access to it?

You've missed the point - When you and the rest of them claim that people voted for this full brexit, you are wrong. I think this point is largely proven.

Secondly, as I have shown previously from the Leave.eu site, this line:- "There are various trading models that could be explored, for example, a Norway-plus type model, or a looser Canada-style relationship. However matters develop, Leave.EU will be there to provide up-to-the-minute insight" Norway being a member of the EEA but not the EU.

 

[mikeyjh]

If membership of the EEA were available without having to adhere to the rest of the EU's rules, then yes I'd vote for that. But that's not an option available to us. As Switzerland's experience shows us.

Thing is though, it does highlight what we know, that people voted leave for many different reasons with many different expectations. So we do have to put the options on the table for, at the very least, parliament to debate.