[Politics] Brexit

[Soulman]

I struggle to see why the mainstream media haven't been reporting on the serious situation developing in Italy in recent weeks, and how the ECB is basically propping the country's economy up currently.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-a-systemic-crisis-in-the-eurozone-2016-11-29
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/ar...ot-replacements-won-t-mean-italy-bond-revival

It's almost as if any bad economic news regarding the EU needs to be suppressed.

I have mentioned the unstable financial position many times on these threads. I suppose because it is a worrying thing for the EU supporters it is ignored.

 

[smeg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9e_vcSut0A

Some more pearls of wisdom from Pat Condell

 

[Lincoln Imp]

If membership of the EEA were available without having to adhere to the rest of the EU's rules, then yes I'd vote for that. But that's not an option available to us. As Switzerland's experience shows us.

It is interesting that as a Leave supporter you would have voted for belonging to the EEA if you could do so without adhering to EU's rules. Forget the EU and its rules for a moment and consider one of the most fundamental characteristics of the EEA, the organisation you would be happy to belong to. I quote: 'The free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA), the extended Internal Market which unites all the EU Member States and three EEA EFTA States – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. It is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 31 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries.'

I applaud your view, but it runs completely counter to those on here who insist that every last Leave voter was determined stop freedom of movement.

 

[5ways]

I can't speak for all leavers of course, and I'm also conscious we are getting to the point where anything that could be said, has been said on this thread.

Having said that, it was crystal clear to most people that Brexit meant no longer adhering to EU rules, and that included freedom of movement, ECJ etc. And therefore I believe most people understood that the Brexit decision might mean losing access to the EEA. If we managed to negotiate something better, then great. But we would take our chances.

We really can't characterise the Brexit vote as a vote to continue adhering to all EU rules, can we? Although some are trying to do just that.

You take your chances going out without an umbrella, not with the economic prosperity of the UK

Most people have absolutely no idea what the EEA is, nor do they care, so long as the foreign types stop trying to open grocery stores on their high-street and stop speaking funny languages on the bus.

Narrowly winning a vote doesn't give you legitimacy to commit economic arson.

 

[5ways]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9e_vcSut0A

Some more pearls of wisdom from Pat Condell

This chap needs watch his blood pressure.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I struggle to see why the mainstream media haven't been reporting on the serious situation developing in Italy in recent weeks, and how the ECB is basically propping the country's economy up currently.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-a-systemic-crisis-in-the-eurozone-2016-11-29
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/ar...ot-replacements-won-t-mean-italy-bond-revival

It's almost as if any bad economic news regarding the EU needs to be suppressed.

Yes, that'll be it. The Mail, Sun and Express are all desperately trying to suppress ANY news that paints the EU in a bad light.

Obviously none of these stalwarts of our mainstream media would print any bad economic news regarding the EU.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9e_vcSut0A

Some more pearls of wisdom from Pat Condell

Bloody Hell!

What's his username on here?

 

[smeg]

Bloody Hell!

What's his username on here?

Haha, I'm sure a few of our resident right wingers will be applauding.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

This chap needs watch his blood pressure.

why, he seemed calm in telling a few home truths
regards
DR

 

[larus]

It is interesting that as a Leave supporter you would have voted for belonging to the EEA if you could do so without adhering to EU's rules. Forget the EU and its rules for a moment and consider one of the most fundamental characteristics of the EEA, the organisation you would be happy to belong to. I quote: 'The free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA), the extended Internal Market which unites all the EU Member States and three EEA EFTA States – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. It is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 31 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries.'

I applaud your view, but it runs completely counter to those on here who insist that every last Leave voter was determined stop freedom of movement.

You are right that most people will not really understand the nuances of the EU/Eurozone/EEA (I'd even include NATO in there are some implied it would affect our security).

However, IMO, most people who voted Leave will have wanted control of our borders, supremacy of Parliament and the UK courts. Some will have wanted to stay within the single market, and others (like me and lots of others on here) accept that that is an unlikely outcome. I do feel as though once we are in a position to negotiate free trade deals, we will open new markets.

Regarding you specific point on Free Movement. I would guess that a lot of Leave voters would not object to the principle of Free Movement were it not for the fact that the EU has expanded East and allowed the Eastern European countries the same rights. This had had an impact on many communities and put a strain on the UK infrastructure (housing, NHS, schools, etc). The problem with some on the Remain side is that they choose to portray a lot or Leave voters as thick racists. I am far from either, and I made a reasoned decision based on numerous different factors and considered that the ever closer union was not something which I was comfortable with.

There was a recent survey (I saw on Sky News this week) which stated that most of the Leave voters would still vote leave. Again, a lot of Remain voters bleat on that so many would change their minds but the clearly is not the case. What I would be interested in seeing is how many Remain voters would now vote Leave as they have seen that the sky has not fallen in, there wasn't an emergency budget, interest rates didn't rise (they were cut), house prices didn't crash and as far as I can tell, WW3 hasn't started yet either.

 

[larus]

I see that the pound is now at 1.1930 Euro, compared to a low of 1.0972. So, nearly 10 cents up.

It's also at $1.2657 from a low of $1.2124, but the $ has strengthened since the US Presidential election.

The pound is recovering against all currencies as the underlying strength of the economy has not changed. No doubt we'll get told "we haven't had Brexit yet", but we were continually told that AS SOON AS WE VOTED BREXIT, things would go wrong. Nearly all economic statistics published since June have exceeded expectations. Projections are constantly being upgraded and CitiBank projected a UK/$ rate of circa $1.5 in a few years.

The official Remain arguments have been proven to be either lies or sheer incompetence.

 

[portslade seagull]

You are right that most people will not really understand the nuances of the EU/Eurozone/EEA (I'd even include NATO in there are some implied it would affect our security).

However, IMO, most people who voted Leave will have wanted control of our borders, supremacy of Parliament and the UK courts. Some will have wanted to stay within the single market, and others (like me and lots of others on here) accept that that is an unlikely outcome. I do feel as though once we are in a position to negotiate free trade deals, we will open new markets.

Regarding you specific point on Free Movement. I would guess that a lot of Leave voters would not object to the principle of Free Movement were it not for the fact that the EU has expanded East and allowed the Eastern European countries the same rights. This had had an impact on many communities and put a strain on the UK infrastructure (housing, NHS, schools, etc). The problem with some on the Remain side is that they choose to portray a lot or Leave voters as thick racists. I am far from either, and I made a reasoned decision based on numerous different factors and considered that the ever closer union was not something which I was comfortable with.

There was a recent survey (I saw on Sky News this week) which stated that most of the Leave voters would still vote leave. Again, a lot of Remain voters bleat on that so many would change their minds but the clearly is not the case. What I would be interested in seeing is how many Remain voters would now vote Leave as they have seen that the sky has not fallen in, there wasn't an emergency budget, interest rates didn't rise (they were cut), house prices didn't crash and as far as I can tell, WW3 hasn't started yet either.

Await the usual bunch to respond to this. I'm a racist and I'm coloured according to that bunch because I never towed the line

 

[Steve in Japan]

It is interesting that as a Leave supporter you would have voted for belonging to the EEA if you could do so without adhering to EU's rules. Forget the EU and its rules for a moment and consider one of the most fundamental characteristics of the EEA, the organisation you would be happy to belong to. I quote: 'The free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA), the extended Internal Market which unites all the EU Member States and three EEA EFTA States – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. It is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 31 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries.'

I applaud your view, but it runs completely counter to those on here who insist that every last Leave voter was determined stop freedom of movement.

Take your point. I should have said something akin to "tariff-free access to the single market", rather that EEA.

 

[GT49er]

Are we definitely leaving the EEA then?

That remains to be seen, but the consensus on here from most posters, leavers and remainers alike, suggests that leaving the EU automatically triggers our departure from the EEA. We will, I would guess, apply to rejoin, but whether any such application is accepted would be down to the rest of Europe to decide, not us.

 

[GT49er]

Most people have absolutely no idea what the EEA is, nor do they care, so long as the foreign types stop trying to open grocery stores on their high-street and stop speaking funny languages on the bus.

Oh, here we go again. Another prat spouting the myth that the referendum was won by bigots and racists (and he probably thinks 'old' and 'thick' as well) voting leave because they don't like foreigners. It's really rather pathetic.

 

[vegster]

I see that the pound is now at 1.1930 Euro, compared to a low of 1.0972. So, nearly 10 cents up.

It's also at $1.2657 from a low of $1.2124, but the $ has strengthened since the US Presidential election.

The pound is recovering against all currencies as the underlying strength of the economy has not changed. No doubt we'll get told "we haven't had Brexit yet", but we were continually told that AS SOON AS WE VOTED BREXIT, things would go wrong. Nearly all economic statistics published since June have exceeded expectations. Projections are constantly being upgraded and CitiBank projected a UK/$ rate of circa $1.5 in a few years.

The official Remain arguments have been proven to be either lies or sheer incompetence.

Hilarious, the Pound is still well down on its pre vote value, ie where it was before " Things Would go Wrong ", and indeed the " strength of our economy " continues to create zero hours low paid jobs which will see us succumb to a recession next year as inflation and wage stagnation kicks in. Household debt is up again by the way, which could well indicate an attitude that we are spending while we can this Christmas as next year we won't be able to afford it.

As an aside I would ask you to listen to the interview on BBCRadio Sussex with the leader of Brighton Council and his explanation of how they are going to have to cut services again and again over the next 3 years. There is your " Strong Economy " in a nutshell, cuts to support for elderly care, disability groups the homeless and frontline services. You had best hope that you don't get a debilitating illness, or lose your job in the near future as there is a dwindling safety net.

 

[mikeyjh]

I see that the pound is now at 1.1930 Euro, compared to a low of 1.0972. So, nearly 10 cents up.

It's also at $1.2657 from a low of $1.2124, but the $ has strengthened since the US Presidential election.

The pound is recovering against all currencies as the underlying strength of the economy has not changed. No doubt we'll get told "we haven't had Brexit yet", but we were continually told that AS SOON AS WE VOTED BREXIT, things would go wrong. Nearly all economic statistics published since June have exceeded expectations. Projections are constantly being upgraded and CitiBank projected a UK/$ rate of circa $1.5 in a few years.

The official Remain arguments have been proven to be either lies or sheer incompetence.

You may want to Google 'David Davis comments pound euro' or something similar.

 

[larus]

Hilarious, the Pound is still well down on its pre vote value, ie where it was before " Things Would go Wrong ", and indeed the " strength of our economy " continues to create zero hours low paid jobs which will see us succumb to a recession next year as inflation and wage stagnation kicks in. Household debt is up again by the way, which could well indicate an attitude that we are spending while we can this Christmas next year we won't be able to afford it.
As an aside I would ask you to listen to the interview on BBCRadio Sussex with the leader of Brighton Council and his explanation of how they are going to have to cut services again and again over the next 3 years. There is your " Strong Economy " in a nutshell, cuts to support for elderly care, disability groups the homeless and frontline services. You had best hope that you don't get a debilitating illness, or lose your job in the near future as there is a dwindling safety net.

Again, Remainers choosing to assume that the exchange rate is fixed. It fluctuates. Beginning of 2009 it was heading towards parity. Apart from a brief spell (approx mid 14 - mid 15) when it was above 1.30, it'd been below the 1.30 rate since early 2008.

For most of the time from 2009 to early 2014, it was near enough where it is now.

So, it looks like another remainer choosing to cherry pick a starting point as being the norm.

Anyway, see what carnage follows on Monday after the Italian vote. If you want to talk about genuine economic struggles, I suggest you look at Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy to see what the wonderful EURO has done for their economies.

The problems in the UK are linked ti the general problems in the world. The whole world is running on debt and it's a ticking time-bomb. It's not purely a UK problem and when the next downturn occurs, which it will, then the real hardship will kick in. There are many problems within the UK, and these aren't going to get solved by the political class, as they don't want to admit the true scale of problems. Too many people have retired on unfunded pensions, limited housing stock leading to unaffordable values, huge corporations being able to avoid paying fair taxes by moving profits to low tax countries (as per what Junker set up in Luxembourg), the elite being able to avoid paying taxes, the welfare state being viewed as a lifestyle choice by some. I agree that things are far from perfect, but being in the EU would only compound the issues IMO.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

There was a recent survey (I saw on Sky News this week) which stated that most of the Leave voters would still vote leave. Again, a lot of Remain voters bleat on that so many would change their minds but the clearly is not the case. What I would be interested in seeing is how many Remain voters would now vote Leave as they have seen that the sky has not fallen in, there wasn't an emergency budget, interest rates didn't rise (they were cut), house prices didn't crash and as far as I can tell, WW3 hasn't started yet either.

Member of the usual bunch here.

I don't think any of us really know how many voters would change their mind if there was another referendum. I am pretty sure that a fair number of Remain voters would change to Leave for the reasons you describe. Others will think 'well we've come this far so we might as well see it out'. The continuing tabloid demonisation of people like Verhofstadt will take its toll.

Balanced against that is the growing gloom of reality. There are a few examples - Ipsos Mori asked people in July whether they thought economic prospects would be better or worse over the coming years. In the north east for example 7.5% thought things would get better because of Brexit. Just under 20% now think it will get worse. For our neck of the woods the figures are plus 8% in July, minus 30% now.

I'm not saying that the worries are soundly based or not. That has been discussed on here for months. What is certain is that the worries are there, and they seem to be getting stronger. What the effect would be on how people think about Brexit we don't, as far as I can tell, know. I think that the mood is changing against Leave but I would say that wouldn't I.

Oh, and just for the record, can I just add that all Leave voters are thick racist bigots. I don't really think that but I know people like to hear it.

 

[larus]

You may want to Google 'David Davis comments pound euro' or something similar.

It's been climbing for the last few weeks. It hit 1.18 last week before any such comments, so you can't just link the rise to a one off statement.