[Politics] Brexit

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

The numerous young spaniards that I work with agree

I take it you work in Sports Direct then?

 

[Pavilionaire]

What the same experts that said as soon as we voted to leave

Nobody was saying the economy was going to crash within 24 hours of the vote - it has always been the case that when a currency weakens the country's exports will become more affordable. I think most of the experts were suggesting the economy would start to tank once Article 50 was invoked.

One sure-fire way of strengthening Sterling now would be for Theresa May to announce that Parliament will vote to decide on whether to invoke Article 50.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Sterling isnt 10% weaker than it is now .... there simple.

Compared to when? 5 minutes ago? It's certainly (more than) 10% weaker than a few months ago

 

[BigGully]

Compared to when? 5 minutes ago? It's certainly 10% weaker than a few months ago

You have no reason to believe it will be 10% weaker next month nor 10% stronger, so you choose to pick the weaker scenario for negative effect on something you or I cannot possibly know.

 

[pastafarian]

I don't know and it's so insignificant that I don't care; it was your flimsily best effort at explaining why it was best to leave the EU.

I understand you don’t care who is or if anyone should be accountable for these laws. Its one of the reasons you blindly support the EU system.
I do care though and dont consider it insignificant, and so did millions of others.

 

[pb21]

IMF said pound was up to 15% overvalued in 2015. Specifically, economists at Deutsche Bank said the £ could fall as low as $1.15 back in 2015. Yes really.

In 2015 the pound was worth upto $1.58. If it was 15% overvalued then, as the IMF supposedly said in 2015 (cant find anything to back this up?), it should have been $1.37, not the ~$1.21 level it currently is at.

So when you said that the IMF said that the £ would fall as low as $1.15 they didn't really.

In terms of the new Deutsche Bank claim I found this article, which details DB's predictions for 2016; I have highlighted the pertinent bit in bold!

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/g...d-to-suffer-in-2016-revise-up-eur-usd-to-0-90

“In 2016, the GBP is likely to remain vulnerable most obviously against the USD. The pound in particular should suffer from a mix of fiscal contraction constraining the BOE tightening cycle, making a C/A deficit of near 5% of GDP more difficult to finance, most especially in the face of ‘Brexit’ uncertainties.”

I cant find anything from Deutsche Bank and a $1.15 level? So did they, really?

 

[beorhthelm]

Who exactly are "they"?

those who draft and decide on the content of the treaties: the EU President, EU Council, the EU commission. you know, the people running the EU.

 

[nicko31]

Nobody was saying the economy was going to crash within 24 hours of the vote - it has always been the case that when a currency weakens the country's exports will become more affordable. I think most of the experts were suggesting the economy would start to tank once Article 50 was invoked.

One sure-fire way of strengthening Sterling now would be for Theresa May to announce that Parliament will vote to decide on whether to invoke Article 50.

There was a number of legal challenges trying to force the later from various groups, this is would be should have done in the first place rather than a plebiscite but what is done is done. If there was a vote now I suspect there would be a vote in favour of invoking art. 50

A vote on the terms of which we leave which is would be a lot more useful, leaving the single market on poor terms has the potential to double our deficit and completely screw us.

 

[pastafarian]

One sure-fire way of strengthening Sterling now would be for Theresa May to announce that Parliament will vote to decide on whether to invoke Article 50.

So its as simple as that, you want parliament to be given the opportunity to negate the referendum vote

 

[BigGully]

Nobody was saying the economy was going to crash within 24 hours of the vote - it has always been the case that when a currency weakens the country's exports will become more affordable. I think most of the experts were suggesting the economy would start to tank once Article 50 was invoked.

One sure-fire way of strengthening Sterling now would be for Theresa May to announce that Parliament will vote to decide on whether to invoke Article 50.

Are you seriously suggesting the current markets are unsure if article 50 will ever be invoked, really ??

 

[pastafarian]

At least we got our country back. We can control our borders from the muslims and we can tell the EU we want bendy bananas.

I wonder
Is it possible you special group of remainers could get your heads together and at least stick to one script.
we apparently voted leave to keep brown foreigners out and now you have moved the goalposts and are saying we voted leave to keep out muslims.

Thanks in advance.

 

[beorhthelm]

Are you seriously saying the current markets are unsure if article 50 will ever be invoked, really ??

i reckon he's banking on the vote overturning the descision and assuming the markets would rather have us remain. I think there's more speculation in the market than rational analysis of the fundementals, simply because the fundementals havent changed yet.

 

[Alex Alex Dawson oo! oo!]

those who draft and decide on the content of the treaties: the EU President, EU Council, the EU commission. you know, the people running the EU.

We seem to be moving on now. How does an EU Treaty, or Treaty amendment, get approved within the EU once it's been drafted, content confirmed etc? Is anyone else involved other than the above or do they just publish it in the OJ, job done?

 

[5ways]

The damage wrought - so far.

 

[CHAPPERS]

The damage wrought - so far.

Yeah but everything is FINE.

 

[BigGully]

Yeah but everything is FINE.

Its a frigging historical graph of the value of sterling, looking at it, it doesnt seem to offer any great insight into the nations wealth, wellbeing or economic performance throughout the period.

 

[CHAPPERS]

its a frigging historical graph of the value of sterling, looking at it, it doesnt seem to offer any great insight into the nations wealth, wellbeing or economic performance throughout the period.

Weak sterling is BAD. And nothing has even happened yet.

Prices will rise, which is no good for the populus.

 

[BigGully]

Weak sterling is BAD. And nothing has even happened yet.

Prices will rise, which is no good for the populus.

As I have already said, you nor I can really know how sterlings future value will go, I suspect if it really is an indicator of economic strength then comaparably it will find a sustainable and reasonable level against other currencies, why wouldnt it, the EU area is hardly full of good economic news and it seems our own position is reasonably sound.

There has been some consensus from both Remainers and Brexiteers that they was always going to be a re-adjustment (weakening) of sterling irrespective of the referendum and this would be welcome for the economy, it seems likely that a continued fall would be unwelcome for the economy.

However I suspect there are many aspects that will effect its future value and much of it nothing to do with Brexit, so you can cherry pick the 'bad news' and use it to fit your agenda or take a more reasoned and medium term view and see how things evolve, there have been plenty of positive economic news lately, but you are just not interested in that are you.

 

[Jim in the West]

Great news! Theresa May will NOT allow a vote on the possible terms of our deal to leave the EU. It'll be up to FOUR people (the three Brexiteers, plus May). Is this what Leave voters meant by "taking back control"?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

As I have already said, you nor I can really know how sterlings future value will go, I suspect if it really is an indicator of economic strength then comaparably it will find a sustainable and reasonable level against other currencies, why wouldnt it, the EU area is hardly full of good economic news and it seems our own position is reasonably sound.

There has been some consensus from both Remainers and Brexiteers that they was always going to be a re-adjustment (weakening) of sterling irrespective of the referendum and this would be welcome for the economy, it seems likely that a continued fall would be unwelcome for the economy.

However I suspect there are many aspects that will effect its future value and much of it nothing to do with Brexit, so you can cherry pick the 'bad news' and use it to fit your agenda or take a more reasoned and medium term view and see how things evolve, there have been plenty of positive economic news lately, but you are just not interested in that are you.

This is just more vague saloon bar waffle though. Care to elaborate a bit?