[Politics] Brexit

[yxee]

2) Economic indicators come in many measures. Lack of confidence in a nation's currency is certainly one. And given the amount of money which has been leaving the UK since the vote coupled with the sharp drop in value immediately after the vote coupled with a similar decline after May's recent conference uttering a I can only assume these are linked. FTSE is mixed; it's more international by definition

FTSE is more international than FX?

 

[pastafarian]

I don't blindly support the EU and you haven't provided a credible reason for rejecting it.

Of course I did
If you take the view returning more law making powers to Westminster away from Brussels is important then it stands to reason this viewpoint is a perfectly credible reason for rejecting the European Union.
It would be on its own in my book, let alone when considered among other issues.
You don’t believe returning more law making powers is a credible reason……..you are entitled to your opinion.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Which bit, seems more coherent than you just making up a scenario ?

Which to you is the main indicator of the UK's economy's performance and how do you associate it exclusively with Brexit or Remain ??

What is it, Sterling, FTSE, Ryanair Fares, Unemployment, Interest Rates ??

Or do you flit between all of them depending where the bad news is ?

I'll also add the BoE's statement about needing to lower interest rates and pump billions into the economy as a measure of how crap the economy is. Are did they do this 5 weeks after the vote because everything was rosy?

 

[beorhthelm]

This government DOES have a mandate to take us out of the EU....but logically (given the 52/48 split) this should be the softest possible Brexit. There is absolutely ZERO mandate for a Hard Brexit!

yet as the remainers are so keen to tell us, the question wasnt qualified. so it gives some mandate "hard" brexit. personally, i dont know what that means either. what i take it as it a baseline, from which to begin then negotiate as much positive for us while giving away as little as possible. should have allowed for a second vote, should have had a grown up campaign. blame Cameron for a simple question, blame Osborne for his project fear strategy. lets not blame the current government asked to deliver, at least until we have an outline of what they and the EU will offer as the outcome.

 

[dazzer6666]

1) I'm not quite sure what you mean by making up a scenario? What scenario are you talking about?
2) Economic indicators come in many measures. Lack of confidence in a nation's currency is certainly one. And given the amount of money which has been leaving the UK since the vote coupled with the sharp drop in value immediately after the vote coupled with a similar decline after May's recent conference uttering a I can only assume these are linked. FTSE is mixed; it's more international by definition so any business which receives dollar or euros will benefit. Strictly UK trading businesses are, generally, clearly struggling. I wouldn't use this as a measure. UK unemployment has been ****ed for a while. So, to answer your question I will settle on currency. Can you go beyond your usual saloon bar platitudes and explain your reasoning?

Uk unemployment is at it's lowest for 10 years isn't it (and numbers in employment higher than for much longer) ?

 

[pastafarian]

Indeed! As you indicate, there is a bunch of Leavers (best exemplified by the Mail & Express crowd) who want Brexit at ANY price. Is that what the country voted for? I actually feel genuinely sorry for the large proportion of Leavers who are struggling to "keep their head above water" (the phrase I think Theresa May used). The well-off Tory right-wing will happily march us over the precipice, in the full knowledge that they will be all right. They will proudly proclaim that they are only doing the will of the people. The problem is, the Referendum only asked one simple question, which was obviously ridiculous given the number of possible alternatives. How do we know whether a majority wanted us to leave the Single Market? Give up free movement of labour? Or just get £350m/week for the NHS. This government DOES have a mandate to take us out of the EU....but logically (given the 52/48 split) this should be the softest possible Brexit. There is absolutely ZERO mandate for a Hard Brexit!

You have a very short memory.

It was pointed out endlessly during the whole debate process by the remain camp that a consequence of a Leave vote would be having to give up preferential access to the single market as this would be incompatible with the inevitable stopping of free movement. It was endlessly argued that having to leave the single market would be disastrous for the economy. Leave countered this by arguing that we could set up bespoke preferential trade agreements with the EU outside of the single market rules and be free to start other trade agreements globally. The remain side even tried to pin down what model leavers wanted, again outside of the single market.The Norwegian model,?The Swiss model ?The Canadian model? All models outside of the single market.

You would have to have been asleep for months or living on another planet to not know your vote to leave meant leaving the single market as we know it.
Your question How do we know whether a majority wanted us to leave the Single Market? is ridiculous. The consequences were well known.

Likewise with free movement, it is blatantly obvious a vote to Leave would mean ending free movement and regaining control of EU borders. Even if this issue didn’t even register on your radar, you still knew if you voted to leave this would be a consequence. People weighed up the options accordingly and cast their vote.

All you are trying to do is say leave voters didn’t know the consequences of their vote on these issues, perhaps you think they were too stupid?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Uk unemployment is at it's lowest for 10 years isn't it (and numbers in employment higher than for much longer) ?

Depends how you view the huge rise in workers with agency forced self-employment status and zero hours contracts.

 

[dazzer6666]

Depends how you view the huge rise in workers with agency forced self-employment status and zero hours contracts.

Don't think this is the place to open the zero hours debate, but we can all use stats to back up arguments (or choose to ignore/discount/discredit/massage those that don't)

 

[Jim in the West]

You have a very short memory.

It was pointed out endlessly during the whole debate process by the remain camp that a consequence of a Leave vote would be having to give up preferential access to the single market as this would be incompatible with the inevitable stopping of free movement. It was endlessly argued that having to leave the single market would be disastrous for the economy. Leave countered this by arguing that we could set up bespoke preferential trade agreements with the EU outside of the single market rules and be free to start other trade agreements globally. The remain side even tried to pin down what model leavers wanted, again outside of the single market.The Norwegian model,?The Swiss model ?The Canadian model? All models outside of the single market.

You would have to have been asleep for months or living on another planet to not know your vote to leave meant leaving the single market as we know it.
Your question How do we know whether a majority wanted us to leave the Single Market? is ridiculous. The consequences were well known.

Likewise with free movement, it is blatantly obvious a vote to Leave would mean ending free movement and regaining control of EU borders. Even if this issue didn’t even register on your radar, you still knew if you voted to leave this would be a consequence. People weighed up the options accordingly and cast their vote.

All you are trying to do is say leave voters didn’t know the consequences of their vote on these issues, perhaps you think they were too stupid?

I don't think anyone knows the consequences, so I wouldn't for one minute say that Leavers were too stupid. What amazes me is that, despite years and years of preparation for a Referendum, and 15 weeks since the result was known, we still have absolutely no idea what the Brexit plan is. And, by the way, the Norwegian model DOES mean access to the single market. So, if some Leavers wanted the Norwegian version of Brexit, then - who knows - there could easily be a democratic majority in favour of remaining in the single market. The point I was making about the "simple question" is that we unfortunately do not actually know what the British people actually voted for!

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

So, if some Leavers wanted the Norwegian version of Brexit, then - who knows - there could easily be a democratic majority in favour of remaining in the single market. The point I was making about the "simple question" is that we unfortunately do not actually know what the British people actually voted for!

I voted Leave and am convinced that the vast majority of Leavers were of the opinion of putting an end to Freedom of Movement when the votes were cast..

In short leave the EU equated to reducing immigration.

 

[Jim in the West]

I voted Leave and am convinced that the vast majority of Leavers were of the opinion of putting an end to Freedom of Movement when the votes were cast..

In short leave the EU equated to reducing immigration.

You may be convinced, but there was a poll in the Telegraph just before the Referendum, and it found that around 30% of those intending to vote Leave would support the Norway Option (i.e., access to the single market and free movement of labour). I think it's a good bet that the majority of the population would be happy to sign up to the Norway Option - unfortunately the Three Brexiteers and Mrs May don't want to know about such niceties. Brexit means Brexit!!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I voted Leave and am convinced that the vast majority of Leavers were of the opinion of putting an end to Freedom of Movement when the votes were cast..

In short leave the EU equated to reducing immigration.

I don't think you are right on that at all, but....

...as we are leaving then ( taking a step back from the entrenched positions ) freedom of movement makes no sense - after all we won't offer that to any other country in the world.

So it'll go without doubt I assume, to be replaced by a visa / permit scheme that is reasonably favourable to EU citizens who are seeking skilled work.

 

[Driver8]

Looks like we are about to see the first price hikes as a result of the Brexit vote

Tesco in dispute with Unilever over price rises
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37637954

 

[Jim in the West]

I don't think you are right on that at all, but....

...as we are leaving then ( taking a step back from the entrenched positions ) freedom of movement makes no sense - after all we won't offer that to any other country in the world.

So it'll go without doubt I assume, to be replaced by a visa / permit scheme that is reasonably favourable to EU citizens who are seeking skilled work.

You are probably right - and here's the irony. In a post-Brexit future we will allow SKILLED EU workers in, leaving the unskilled jobs for Brits. At the moment there are hundreds of thousands of unskilled jobs which EU workers seem to do very well, for low wages - massively benefitting our economy. Unfortunately, the average Brit seems to have no inclination to do such work. Presumably we will end up bringing in large numbers of workers from the Commonwealth to fill the inevitable gap. But at least Brexit will keep out those nasty Spanish waiters and Polish plumbers....

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

You may be convinced, but there was a poll in the Telegraph just before the Referendum, and it found that around 30% of those intending to vote Leave would support the Norway Option (i.e., access to the single market and free movement of labour). I think it's a good bet that the majority of the population would be happy to sign up to the Norway Option - unfortunately the Three Brexiteers and Mrs May don't want to know about such niceties. Brexit means Brexit!!

I would rather have stayed in the EU than have the Norway option-pointless in my opinion,as for a Telegraph poll,possible that 30% could be some way off the mark too.

 

[pastafarian]

I don't think anyone knows the consequences, so I wouldn't for one minute say that Leavers were too stupid. What amazes me is that, despite years and years of preparation for a Referendum, and 15 weeks since the result was known, we still have absolutely no idea what the Brexit plan is. And, by the way, the Norwegian model DOES mean access to the single market. So, if some Leavers wanted the Norwegian version of Brexit, then - who knows - there could easily be a democratic majority in favour of remaining in the single market. The point I was making about the "simple question" is that we unfortunately do not actually know what the British people actually voted for!

but we do know what we voted for,we voted to leave The European Union.
Your premise that the referendum question should have been wider is silly. Its not a cherry picking exercise where we can pick one part of membership to keep and another to reject.
The referendum question could have been nothing else but a simple IN or OUT. You couldnt for example tick boxes on your ballot saying i want to Remain in the eu with keeping free movemnt but no longer be part of the ECJ. It doesnt work like that.
On the matters of free movement and the single market people did know the consequences of their vote. it was widely explained what your vote meant.

EDIT i would just add if being a member of the EU was a cherry picking exercise we would probably have stopped free movement years ago when it started to get out of hand. We didnt because we couldnt

 

[Jim in the West]

I would rather have stayed in the EU than have the Norway option-pointless in my opinion,as for a Telegraph poll,possible that 30% could be some way off the mark too.

30% is a big number.....it implies that potentially nearly two thirds of voters would be happy with a Norway Option. No wonder May and crew are running scared from a parliamentary vote....

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

30% is a big number.....it implies that potentially nearly two thirds of voters would be happy with a Norway Option. No wonder May and crew are running scared from a parliamentary vote....

It is a big number and a number that raises the possibility of a middle ground of leave voters (assuming) that their poll of 3000 (guesstimate on my part) people did not contain a lot of Remain members..

52% is also a big number and 17 Million also...

 

[Jim in the West]

but we do know what we voted for,we voted to leave The European Union.
Your premise that the referendum question should have been wider is silly. Its not a cherry picking exercise where we can pick one part of membership to keep and another to reject.
The referendum question could have been nothing else but a simple IN or OUT. You couldnt for example tick boxes on your ballot saying i want to Remain in the eu with keeping free movemnt but no longer be part of the ECJ. It doesnt work like that.
On the matters of free movement and the single market people did know the consequences of their vote. it was widely explained what your vote meant.

Given that the campaign was riddled with lies, fabrication, distortion, scare-mongering, etc, etc (on both sides) I very much doubt that anyone really understood the consequences of their vote. And given that we still have no clue what it means, I don't think you can make your claim. And, regarding the Referendum - why not have had several questions? What would have been wrong with a third option (namely, The Norway Option - or even a Swiss Option)? The very fact that we're still arguing about these issues is clear evidence that the Referendum itself wasn't particularly helpful.

 

[Jim in the West]

It is a big number and a number that raises the possibility of a middle ground of leave voters (assuming) that their poll of 3000 (guesstimate on my part) people did not contain a lot of Remain members..

52% is also a big number and 17 Million also...

48% is a big number - don't forget us!!