[Politics] Brexit

[Guinness Boy]

Course they bloody did, self centred and up themselves and only interested in making themselves even more money, hardly a surprise they voted for the status quo. Slightly different for those of us that don't have a pot to piss in, still don't have a pot to piss in but interesting to see the whining coming from the likes of you who may have to endure a tiny bit of a financial hit.

Show me where I've whined. Go on, quote me. You won't find a moan on the whole thread. I've analysed what I think is happening in the Tory Party and with Article 50 - because my supposed non-job means I need to know a bit about the political and economic worlds here and abroad - and I've said the result should be accepted but that it isn't legally binding because that's factually correct. The point I was making is that it ISN'T a self centred vote. Bonus cap has just gone. Working Time Directive has just gone. Solvency rules will be rewritten. Any bank that moves to Frankfurt will take the best talent with them - in fact many of them could do the job remotely these days.

Perhaps you haven't got a pot to piss in because you've spent your life insulting the people you blame for your own position?

 

[jaghebby]

Course they bloody did, self centred and up themselves and only interested in making themselves even more money, hardly a surprise they voted for the status quo. Slightly different for those of us that don't have a pot to piss in, still don't have a pot to piss in but interesting to see the whining coming from the likes of you who may have to endure a tiny bit of a financial hit.

Thought I might just point out that the city contributes at least £66billion in taxes to our Governments finances so if they take a hit we all will take a hit. And may I also point out out that its not just banks in the city its insurance, financial services, pensions etc etc etc. So you are perfectly entitled to slag off the city but you should do so knowing the full implications to the wider country and you yourself. You may not think it won't affect you but it will.

 

[Steve in Japan]

Good article IMO

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/28/brexit-disaster-crisis-changes-left

[[/i]

It is a good article. Its outnumbered by about 10-1 in the Guardian which is still coming to terms with the vote, whilst simultaneously having an identity crisis about what it means to be on the Left side of politics today.

 

[tinycowboy]

Probably 80 -90% of the people I know in Financial Services in London voted Remain (and I know a lot)!

Where I work, by far the biggest proportion of Leave votes came from those educated at the most expensive schools who earned the biggest bonuses and who generally have a Central London townhouse and a country estate. For them, it's a matter of sovereignty.

 

[jaghebby]

They left towns and normal people to rot over the years because nobody in government supported Manufacturing. It was all about London, all about the finance industry, and not about building real value in Manufacturing jobs for the future. Our towns have changed, our jobs have changed, and because of the ridicolous rules on free movement set out by the EU, this has ensured our wages have been kept down, it hasn't worked.
.
The people have spoken now. People might have shot themself in the foot for a few years, but may be it needed something like this for government, the EU and big business to finally wake up and think of the rest of us.

JCB supported Brexit. At least they didn't sell their business off to foreign investors.

So not supporting manufacturing? What about getting Nissan, Toyota, Honda, BMW and others to invest in this Country with plants spread across the country? The Financial Times has forecast that annual UK vehicle production will exceed its historic peak level (achieved in 1972) by 2017. Their forecasted production levels for 2016 1,993,000 units and 2017: 2,062,000 units. UK manufacturing is strong with the UK currently the 11th largest manufacturing nation in the world. Manufacturing makes up 11% of UK GVA and 54% of UK exports and directly employs 2.6 million people and of course supports the employment of many more people in the wider economy. Overall, the UK’s industrial sector has increased by 1.4% a year since 1948, according to a recent report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS attributes the sustained growth to a better quality, more skilled workforce; a shift in production from low to high productivity goods; improvements in automation and ICT; increased investment in R&D, and a more integrated global economy.

So stop talking absolute tosh and get your facts right.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Thought I might just point out that the city contributes at least £66billion in taxes to our Governments finances so if they take a hit we all will take a hit. And may I also point out out that its not just banks in the city its insurance, financial services, pensions etc etc etc. So you are perfectly entitled to slag off the city but you should do so knowing the full implications to the wider country and you yourself. You may not think it won't affect you but it will.

This also.

Every trade has a winner and a loser. The stock market - or the pound - collapsing won't affect many traders who will have seen it coming and shorted stocks or moved currencies. It WILL affect the little man. A sustained run on the pound will make petrol and imported goods more expensive, costs that are proportionately higher the less you earn. Companies who need to lay people off as a result of financial turmoil will start with the zero hours workers because there's virtually no cost to them. An increase in interest rates will increase private rents. Property falls will take a small chunk off in places like London and Brighton but see massive defaults and mass boarding ups in exactly the seats that voted leave.

It's hilarious that the Leave campaign are thumbing their noses at the bankers and middle classes when it's them that will suffer the most during an economic downturn. And let's see how many of them want to pick strawberries or clean up shit in a nursing home or wait tables or patrol the new Jungle camp that will soon appear between Dover and Folkstone.

 

[Titanic]

FTSE250 and £ climbing steadily yesterday and again this morning... markets seem to have stabilised for now... hopefully our politicians can follow suit and get this show back on the road!

 

[biddles911]

THE referendum thread (others will be merged with this)

I trust and respect bankers and the financial sector about as much as I trust estate agents and used car salesman, the same financial institutions who have been the subject of several years of scandalous illegal practices seeing them fined hundreds of millions of pounds, the same financial markets that caused the global economy to almost collapse in 2008-09 (largely that would be those American banks Gillian Tett is wittering on about). I couldn't give a monkeys nut if the financial sector suffers as a result of Brexit and thousands of tosspot city types had to go out and find a real job, welcome to the real world.

Whatever your opinion of bankers and clearly they were (are?) a self-serving mega-greedy bunch, banks are the motor that allows the "real" economy to operate by providing loans, overdrafts, mortgages etc., so to suggest that issues with the financial services sector won't affect the "real" economy is living in cloud cuckoo land.....


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[Deleted member 22389]

So not supporting manufacturing? What about getting Nissan, Toyota, Honda, BMW and others to invest in this Country with plants spread across the country? The Financial Times has forecast that annual UK vehicle production will exceed its historic peak level (achieved in 1972) by 2017. Their forecasted production levels for 2016 1,993,000 units and 2017: 2,062,000 units. UK manufacturing is strong with the UK currently the 11th largest manufacturing nation in the world. Manufacturing makes up 11% of UK GVA and 54% of UK exports and directly employs 2.6 million people and of course supports the employment of many more people in the wider economy. Overall, the UK’s industrial sector has increased by 1.4% a year since 1948, according to a recent report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS attributes the sustained growth to a better quality, more skilled workforce; a shift in production from low to high productivity goods; improvements in automation and ICT; increased investment in R&D, and a more integrated global economy.

So stop talking absolute tosh and get your facts right.

It is about the small / medium size manufacturing companies, go down to Newhaven, all them have gone. That is the problem there is still not enough of it. My facts are right because I can see it with my own eyes. The last sucker punch for Newhaven was Parker Pen, I think they went to France, so it shows even when your in the EU it doesn't stop companies moving.

Here is an article from The Argus 2009
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/4497779.Parker_Pen_Newhaven_closure_plan_revealed/

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Good article IMO

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/28/brexit-disaster-crisis-changes-left

Let’s sack the electorate and appoint a new one: this is the demand made by MPs, lawyers and the 4 million people who have signed the petition calling for a second referendum. It’s a cry of pain, and therefore understandable, but it’s also bad politics and bad democracy. Reduced to its essence, it amounts to graduates telling nongraduates: “We reject your democratic choice.”

Were this vote to be annulled (it won’t be), the result would be a full-scale class and culture war, riots and perhaps worse, pitching middle-class progressives against those on whose behalf they have claimed to speak, and permanently alienating people who have spent their lives feeling voiceless and powerless.

Yes, the Brexit vote has empowered the most gruesome collection of schemers, misfits, liars, extremists and puppets that British politics has produced in the modern era. It threatens to invoke a new age of demagoguery, a threat sharpened by the thought that if this can happen, so can Donald Trump.

It has provoked a resurgence of racism and an economic crisis whose dimensions remain unknown. It jeopardises the living world, the NHS, peace in Ireland and the rest of the European Union. It promotes what the billionaire Peter Hargreaves gleefully anticipated as “fantastic insecurity”.

But we’re stuck with it. There isn’t another option, unless you favour the years of limbo and chaos that would ensue from a continued failure to trigger article 50. It’s not just that we have no choice but to accept the result; we should embrace it and make of it what we can.
We cannot succumb to Brexit disaster. It’s time to campaign to save our future

It’s not as if the system that’s now crashing around us was functioning. The vote could be seen as a self-inflicted wound, or it could be seen as the eruption of an internal wound inflicted over many years by an economic oligarchy on the poor and the forgotten. The bogus theories on which our politics and economics are founded were going to collide with reality one day. The only questions were how and when.

Yes, the Brexit campaign was led by a political elite, funded by an economic elite and fuelled by a media elite. Yes, popular anger was channelled towards undeserving targets – migrants.

But the vote was also a howl of rage against exclusion, alienation and remote authority. That is why the slogan “take back control” resonated. If the left can’t work with this, what are we for?

So here is where we find ourselves. The economic system is not working, except for the likes of Philip Green. Neoliberalism has not delivered the meritocratic nirvana its theorists promised, but a rentiers’ paradise, offering staggering returns to whoever grabs the castle first while leaving productive workers on the wrong side of the moat.

The age of enterprise has become the age of unearned income, the age of the market the age of market failure, the age of opportunity a steel cage of zero-hours contracts, precarity and surveillance.

The political system is not working. Whoever you vote for, the same people win, because where power claims to be is not where power is.

Parliaments and councils embody paralysed force, gesture without motion, as the real decisions are taken elsewhere: by the money, for the money. Governments have actively conspired in this shift, negotiating fake trade treaties behind their voters’ backs to prevent democracy from controlling corporate capital.

Unreformed political funding ensures that parties have to listen to the rustle of notes before the bustle of votes. In Britain these problems are compounded by an electoral system that ensures most votes don’t count. This is why a referendum is almost the only means by which people can be heard, and why attempting to override it is a terrible idea.

Culture is not working. A worldview that insists both people and place are fungible is inherently hostile to the need for belonging. For years now we have been told that we do not belong, that we should shift out without complaint while others are shifted in to take our place.

When the peculiarities of community and place are swept away by the tides of capital, all that’s left is a globalised shopping culture, in which we engage with glazed passivity. Man was born free, and he is everywhere in chainstores.

In all these crises are opportunities – opportunities to reject, connect and erect, to build from these ruins a system that works for the people of this country rather than for an offshore elite that preys on insecurity.

If it is true that Britain will have to renegotiate its trade treaties, is this not the best chance we’ve had in decades to contain corporate power – of insisting that companies that operate here must offer proper contracts, share their profits, cut their emissions and pay their taxes? Is it not a chance to regain control of the public services slipping from our grasp?

How will politics in this sclerotic nation change without a maelstrom? In this chaos we can, if we are quick and clever, find a chance to strike a new contract: proportional representation, real devolution and a radical reform of campaign finance to ensure that millionaires can never again own our politics.

Remote authority has been rejected, so let’s use this moment to root our politics in a common celebration of place, to fight the epidemic of loneliness and rekindle common purpose, transcending the tensions between recent and less recent migrants (which means everyone else). In doing so, we might find a language in which liberal graduates can talk with the alienated people of Britain, rather than at them.

But most importantly, let’s address the task that the left and the centre have catastrophically neglected: developing a political and economic philosophy fit for the 21st century, rather than repeatedly microwaving the leftovers of the 20th (neoliberalism and Keynesianism). If the history of the last 80 years tells us anything, it’s that little changes without a new and feracious framework of thought.

So yes, despair and rage and curse at what has happened: there are reasons enough to do so. But then raise your eyes to where hope lies.

Yes it is and it is broadly why I voted Leave. For those that keep complaining that Leave voters are stupid it may help explain that there is an intelligent rationale for our decision and it would be better to engage with it than continue with the incomprehension. I know the tone of the article is for the Left to adapt to the new reality but I genuinely believe that this new reality is a better one than the corporate status quo we have just voted out.

 

[Guinness Boy]

FTSE250 and £ climbing steadily yesterday and again this morning... markets seem to have stabilised for now... hopefully our politicians can follow suit and get this show back on the road!

In the short term it should do because we've entered a stable period / inertia. Then the holiday season is upon us. The real action will start in October. Do let us know when the pound reaches 1.75 again though, only 41 cents to go.................

 

[Titanic]

In the short term it should do because we've entered a stable period / inertia. Then the holiday season is upon us. The real action will start in October. Do let us know when the pound reaches 1.75 again though, only 41 cents to go.................

1.75 was September 2008... it was 1.70 briefly in July 2014 (but more realistically 1.60 average throughout 2009-2015)... so what has that figure got to do with #BrExit ?

A more realistic target would be $1.44 which was the stable level before overhype last week. Only 11 cents to go...

 

[beorhthelm]

Whatever your opinion of bankers and clearly they were (are?) a self-serving mega-greedy bunch, banks are the motor that allows the "real" economy to operate by providing loans, overdrafts, mortgages etc., so to suggest that issues with the financial services sector won't affect the "real" economy is living in cloud cuckoo land.....

you'd have thought a recession brought about by the banks ceasing to lend, because they had unknown liabilities on their balance sheets so had to be ultra cautious, would have shown this to the world. housebuilding, manufacturing, industry and commerce in general doesnt exist without capital, without someone lending long term.

 

[beorhthelm]

In the short term it should do because we've entered a stable period / inertia. Then the holiday season is upon us. The real action will start in October. Do let us know when the pound reaches 1.75 again though, only 41 cents to go.................

bit of a random target, hasnt been that high since before 2008, brief flirtation with 1.70 18 mths ago.

 

[Steve in Japan]

Nicky Morgan, an ardent Remainer, on Today program. She is considering standing for PM. Her position on free movement is interesting - she thinks politicians need to level with voters that it's inevitable if we want free access to the market. High marks for honesty, low marks for electability.

 

[Guinness Boy]

1.75 was September 2008... it was 1.70 briefly in July 2014 (but more realistically 1.60 average throughout 2009-2015)... so what has that figure got to do with #BrExit ?

A more realistic target would be $1.44 which was the stable level before overhype last week. Only 11 cents to go...

bit of a random target, hasnt been that high since before 2008, brief flirtation with 1.70 18 mths ago.

It was the figure before the global banking crisis, since when we've been recovering. As you both correctly point out it hit 1.70 in mid 2014. Since then? Perhaps the increasing threat of a referendum may have affected things

 

[Titanic]

It was the figure before the global banking crisis, since when we've been recovering. As you both correctly point out it hit 1.70 in mid 2014. Since then? Perhaps the increasing threat of a referendum may have affected things

The markets and the bookies seemed to think #Remain would win though

 

[Guinness Boy]

The markets and the bookies seemed to think #Remain would win though

Bookies odds are just weight of laid money. Come on, you know that.

 

[Titanic]

Bookies odds are just weight of laid money. Come on, you know that.

Which is a strong indicator of where the punters think the results is going, isn't it? and the betting exchanges are much more 'real time' and they were massively odds-on for #Remain on Thursday morning.

 

[nicko31]

Bookies odds are just weight of laid money. Come on, you know that.

Indeed, used by many to cover currency exposure.