[Politics] Brexit

[DTES]

Agriculture is just one of many industries.The way I'm reading this is that say you have 50 farmers employing 500 migrants then if they didn't employ them and went bust,50 farmers would lose their livelihood(or just go and work for someone)and 500 migrants would go home.Sounds good to me.

In this situation 50 Brits lose jobs, 500 migrants lose jobs, and nobody gains. And this sounds good to you, just because it gets some foreigners out of the country?

 

[DTES]

I also think it's a shame that because we are getting so overrun with EU workers it is now harder for workers from other parts of the world to come here.
I would rather have a mix of aussies,canadians,yanks,south americans then just bland eastern europeans.

Net migration from the EU last year (172,000) was smaller than net migration from outside the EU (191,000). But don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

No one claims to know exactly how post-Brexit negotiations will go or even what will be on the agenda but the concept of free movement is so central to the philosophy of the EU and of its predecessor organisations that no crystal ball is needed to be sure that it will not abandon its founding principles to cut a deal with the UK.

As I have mentioned before I don't think anyone really thinks we will have the same (not free as it comes at a cost) access to the single market post Brexit. How much we do get will be a matter for negotiation. History shows us the EU is prepared to move or even completely ignore the goalposts where necessary so I wouldn't go overboard on the central philosophy/founding principles statements.

There are a couple of close precedents - firstly, Greenland left the EU in 1985. Secondly, we tried to negotiate trade deals with the EU when it was first set up, and failed abysmally.

It took Greenland three years to negotiate its post-EU deal, and it really only covered one issue - fish.

Whilst I accept we don't know for certain what the position of the EU would be post-Brexit, I think it is entirely reasonable to think that re-negotiating our position, with all its complexities, against the backdrop of anti-UK feeling within the EU, is going to be really tough. Especially as the EU will be doing its utmost to discourage any other member states from leaving. We could all take a gamble and assume it'll be easy - but why take that risk?

Close precedents !? Greenland v The Country with the 5th biggest Economy in the world, second largest in Europe and would become the EU's biggest single trading partner and probably the biggest export market.

After triggering article 50 we have two years to negotiate our terms for leaving/new relationship. No one is suggesting it will be easy but any petty desire to punish or make an example of the UK will be tempered by the knowledge this would add to uncertainty and further imperil a weak stagnating Eurozone. All the big business lobbying currently behind Remain would immediately apply pressure on governments to come to a mutually beneficial speedy understanding to limit any short term economic damage. ££€€ talks louder than political posturing.

 

[DTES]

No one is suggesting it will be easy but any petty desire to punish or make an example of the UK will be tempered by the knowledge this would add to uncertainty and further imperil a weak stagnating Eurozone.

I would think that making Leave look an attractive option (by giving the UK a favourable deal) will do far more to imperil the Eurozone than punishing us, simply by encouraging the populations of other EU countries to follow us out. But then that debates been had on this thread several pages ago...

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Net migration from the EU last year (172,000) was smaller than net migration from outside the EU (191,000). But don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

It will be interesting to see if that is the case after the ONS publish their review of the immigration statistics next month.

1. Official figures for Eastern European net migration could have been underestimated by more than 50,000 a year in each of the last five years. If so, this would mean that net migration from the EU is actually running at about 220,000 year and that the EU is now the largest source of foreign migration to the UK. It would also mean that total net migration to the UK is currently running at about 375,000 a year.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/380

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I would think that making Leave look an attractive option (by giving the UK a favourable deal) will do far more to imperil the Eurozone than punishing us, simply by encouraging the populations of other EU countries to follow us out. But then that debates been had on this thread several pages ago...

Look an attractive option being the relevant phrase, both sides will claim they have (won) out negotiated each other no matter the deals reached.

 

[Pavilionaire]

54% - 46% here. Clear blue water, 8% lead. Auf Wiedershen Brexit, Bienvenue l'Europe. Arrivederci Farage, Hola Herr Juncker!

One year ago this week Rookie polled NSC on whether Hughton was capable of producing a Top 6 squad. The result? Yes, by 54% - 46%. I rest my case.

 

[DTES]

Look an attractive option being the relevant phrase, both sides will claim they have (won) out negotiated each other no matter the deals reached.

True, but Cameron claimed to have out negotiated the EU a few months ago - that doesn't mean anyone believed him!

 

[DTES]

It will be interesting to see if that is the case after the ONS publish their review of the immigration statistics next month.

1. Official figures for Eastern European net migration could have been underestimated by more than 50,000 a year in each of the last five years. If so, this would mean that net migration from the EU is actually running at about 220,000 year and that the EU is now the largest source of foreign migration to the UK. It would also mean that total net migration to the UK is currently running at about 375,000 a year.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/380

Interesting if true. If it is, that means migration represents roughly 54% of total migration into the UK. The post I originally quoted bemoaned the lack of a mix in immigration - even 54/46 is quite a mix IMHO...

 

[JC Footy Genius]

28th April YouGov/Times – Remain 41%, Leave 42%. Choppy waters ahead ....

 

[DTES]

28th April YouGov/Times – Remain 41%, Leave 42%. Choppy waters ahead ....

4 polls in the last few days, 2 online and 2 phone. Both online polls (including the one you mention) put Leave ahead; both phone polls put Remain ahead. What does that say......? (I don't know)

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The previous poster made the claim that the goverment can afford to build this,build that because they are loaded I assume.That's hardly dealing with the question.He has no proof.That's like me saying the opposite that they can't afford to build this and that because they are broke without having proof.Wait a minute I do have proof.Cutback after cutback after cutback.Not enough spending on the NHS,schools,etc.Have I dealt with the question?

So you're saying there are no migrants in Lincolnshire?Interesting.

Yes agriculture.Let's get them to work on farms and nowhere else.Suits me.

You were replying here to a post from me about the effect of agricultural migrants in the small towns of east Lincolnshire (which are well known for their relatively large numbers of EU immigrants). In the light of what I wrote would you mind if I ask you two questions about your response?

1. Why did you suggest that I was claiming that there are no migrants in Lincolnshire?

2. Do you trouble to read the posts you respond to or are you so far tuned in to 'Transmit' that you no longer really bother?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

4 polls in the last few days, 2 online and 2 phone. Both online polls (including the one you mention) put Leave ahead; both phone polls put Remain ahead. What does that say......? (I don't know)

There is some analysis on the discrepancy between online and phone polling .... but I can't remember what it said.

Overall I am surprised the leave vote is still relatively resilient considering the constant stream of opinions and reports painting such a negative future for Brexit. Still think Remain will win but there is still a chance as Brexiteers are more likely to vote.

 

[Two Professors]

Thank god no MPs in the Commons have ever been found fiddling expenses. Leaving the EU will definitely stamp out this kind of behaviour.

It is the scale of the thievery,couple of grand to half a million,and the total lack of oversight that make this worthy of comment!

 

[Two Professors]

Cameron and his tame chimp have fallen for the lie that we are the uneducated masses.We take their lies and constant misinformation with a pinch of salt,and have previously unheard of access to information.I have total confidence that enough brave people still exist in this country to tell the EU where they can stick there federalism and welcome Independence Day.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Cameron and his tame chimp have fallen for the lie that Brexiters the uneducated masses

He's spot on

 

[heathgate]

There is some analysis on the discrepancy between online and phone polling .... but I can't remember what it said.

Overall I am surprised the leave vote is still relatively resilient considering the constant stream of opinions and reports painting such a negative future for Brexit. Still think Remain will win but there is still a chance as Brexiteers are more likely to vote.

Because of the battering in general you get from the Remain crowd, the Brexiteers are simply sitting quietly until they get a ballot box in front of them.... remember the last election?.. if you so much as hinted you may vote Conservative, boom... the pseudo intellectual left were on you in double quick time. Brexiteers in general are keeping their power dry.



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[Herr Tubthumper]

Because of the battering in general you get from the Remain crowd, the Brexiteers are simply sitting quietly until they get a ballot box in front of them.... remember the last election?.. if you so much as hinted you may vote Conservative, boom... the pseudo intellectual left were on you in double quick time. Brexiteers in general are keeping their power dry.



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[daveinprague]

Because of the battering in general you get from the Remain crowd, the Brexiteers are simply sitting quietly until they get a ballot box in front of them.... remember the last election?.. if you so much as hinted you may vote Conservative, boom... the pseudo intellectual left were on you in double quick time. Brexiteers in general are keeping their power dry.



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Sitting quietly?

 

[Maldini]

Net migration from the EU last year (172,000) was smaller than net migration from outside the EU (191,000). But don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

Mate do one with your little bitchy comments.You're a joke.