[Politics] Brexit

[5ways]

then you havnt been paying attention

we want out of a Europe expanding to allow basket case economies into the club.
we don’t want an external border with Syria Iran and Iraq
we want to be safe from a Europe that’s allows terrorists to walk across borders unhindered.
We want/MUST control our borders to manage our infrastructure.
We want our sovereignty back,a return of our judicial powers,we want democratic accountability to rest in this country not abroad.
we want to be free to trade with who we please and not be dictated to.

does this all come at an initial price? probably.
do I care? No!

This country is NOT a basket case that needs its hand held at every step, as you portray. Any initial downturn will swiftly be overcome because we are a GREAT trading nation, with a great workforce.

And you cant put a price on freedom and independence

Yes I get all that. We know what you want - but how are you going to do it. That is the question that hasn't been answered. When will our new trade agreements be up, when will we have control of our borders, how long will it take, how much will it cost? These are questions the in campaign has tried to answer as have independent observers - I still have no plan and no idea of what happens after Brexit from the Out campaign. Do we really leave the EU or renegotiate entry like Boris suggested? Do we need access to the internal market like the Out campaign says we will have, or does it not matter, like Gove has said?

Out campaign has no hard plans, no supporting evidence, no positive forecasts, no 'brain trust'. We're a great trading nation with a great workforce OK fine. Freedom and independence, fine. But specifics, facts, details are simply not there.

Also Turkey joining the EU is simply a scare story, it will not happen because countries will veto entry.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It's quite funny really... you continually trot this tariff line out.... you forget, we are a market of 65 million people, with very high per capita income and thus spending capacity. These countries want us to buy their goods, they need us to buy their goods..... deals will be done, don't you worry your little 'sour-kraut' head about it.

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I've not said anything about tariffs. My point is that trade agreements are typically two way deals. And the UK's biggest trade partner is the EU....which you forget has a trade surplus on on of the UK's vital sectors....financial services. This latter point is a great position for the EU to start a negotiation from....a very good position.

 

[drew]

You lot of Bremainers need to look at the TTIP stitch up that the unelected EU commission is negotiating with the US currently, in secret,.... among a raft of issues, it will actually allow US companies to sue the EU if in the future they introduce any legislation that affects said companies profits..... amazed? ... I was, .. now go and research it yourself. .... shameful.... vote Leave

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Whether you or I like the terms of TTIP or not, it's the way the US is negotiating their deals. They are doing the same kind of deal with the Pacific Rim countries. What makes you think that they wouldn't insist on very similar terms when negotiating just with us? Those EU commissioners are negotiating with a position of strength, the EU being a similar sized economy to the US. Also, as I understand it, our financial institutions are very keen on TTIP as it will open up the US market to them which, I believe, has greater regulation.

 

[pastafarian]

Yes I get all that. We know what you want - but how are you going to do it.

By voting to leave the EU

its really not difficult to understand

 

[drew]

2014 and China?

Was that actually a trade agreement or just a series of deals that were announced?

 

[5ways]

By voting to leave the EU

its really not difficult to understand

Ah I see. Something like this -

Step 1. Brexit Step 2. ? Step 3. Profit

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Was that actually a trade agreement or just a series of deals that were announced?

2015 Indian agreement too,it's deals trade deals....rather than selling off Gold and buying Euros and Dollars and Yen.... Dave gets out there and does,deals, TRADE DEALS.

 

[heathgate]

The UK hasn't negotiated a trade deal for 40 years. 44% of our exports go to the EU (i.e. - the EU is very important to us!). Around 6% of the EU's exports are to the UK (i.e., we are not that important, in trade terms). The key issue is political - if we did vote to leave, the EU would be desperate to ensure no one else left, and they would do their absolute damnedest to ensure we had a really, really crappy trade deal.

It definitely is NOT worth the risk. We might not like being in the club and having to play by its rules, but it's a helluva lot better than not being in any club, and having to survive on the scraps that the rest of the world choses to throw us.

6%... just to the UK... out of a total of nearly 200 other countries around the world....we take 6% on our own?... that's a big lump of goods.

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[Jim in the West]

end of the day that 44% of exports is actually a small part of our total economy, and its a shrinking part while the rest of the world grows.

I'm not sure that 44% is small! It supports over 3m jobs.

 

[Jim in the West]

6%... just to the UK... out of a total of nearly 200 other countries around the world....we take 6% on our own?... that's a big lump of goods.

The point is - it's a lot for us, but relatively insignificant for the rest of the EU. So, we have far, far more to lose than they do. We might not like it, but there it is.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Why will it be too late? We can leave the EU any time we want. We don't need a referendum. Parliament can vote on this at any time. In fact, if they wanted to, MPs could arrange a vote next week and, if a majority of MPs voted to leave, we could start the process. In the same vein, if the vote on 23rd June is to STAY, then - if we feel we've been stitched up six months later, we can simply hold a vote in Parliament.

Of course the slight problem for the Brexit camp is that the majority of MPs would vote to stay.....although (in the scenario you paint, with the UK being taken for a ride) this could change.

Unfortunately, it doesn't really work the other way round - if we vote to leave on 23rd June, then change our minds in December, we could only ever get back in on massively disadvantaged terms, as we'd have virtually no bargaining power.

Good points.

 

[pastafarian]

Ah I see. Something like this -

Step 1. Brexit Step 2. ? Step 3. Profit

step 2 is UK or EU saying,looks like we have to say goodbye but shall we do a trade deal. Yeah ok,comes back the answer,you get your lot to put some proposals on paper and we will do they same. Meet you later for a chat and lets see what we can hammer out.

What you are doing by asking for the final fine details of a post Brexit negotiation is pointless and impossible.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes I get all that. We know what you want - but how are you going to do it. That is the question that hasn't been answered. When will our new trade agreements be up, when will we have control of our borders, how long will it take, how much will it cost?

some trade deal with EU will be thrashed out within two years (as per Lisbon). control of border (such as it matters) on the same timeframe. cost, apparently, is 0.1% of GDP lost by 2030. discounting the benefits uncosted and unforseen in leaving. there you have it, the Remain campaign have told us.

btw Turkey being annexed to the EU, is happening. it wouldnt be full membership, probably more like a reverse Norway, where they get visa free movement to EU and we pay them an awful lot of cash. this isnt speculation, its under negotiation already as part of the EU mismangement of the Syrian crisis.

Whether you or I like the terms of TTIP or not, it's the way the US is negotiating their deals. They are doing the same kind of deal with the Pacific Rim countries. What makes you think that they wouldn't insist on very similar terms when negotiating just with us?

the difference being is that we could turn it down, not be party to an agreement negotiated by 27 others. the outcome of this is a net gain if we agree to anything, so would be an improvement on the current trade relations.

 

[cunning fergus]

The point is - it's a lot for us, but relatively insignificant for the rest of the EU. So, we have far, far more to lose than they do. We might not like it, but there it is.

Jim, right from the start they would immediately lose a net contributor to the EU budget, we are helping to pay the membership fee of many .

If we are out then these billions of euros worth of slack will need to be taken up.........I doubt there are any countries that will happily just pick up the tab.

You may not think we matter to the EU, but we really really really matter to Ireland, the vast majority of that small country's trade is with the UK and the US.

If the EU wanted to impose tariffs on trade with the UK they would ruin the fragile recovering Irish economy, which just happens to be in the euro, the currency they have to do everything in their power to protect.

These current friends of ours may want to be vindictive to the UK in the face of a democratic decision by the UK electorate that they didn't like, however there would be wider consequences.........the inners may not like to recognise it, but there it us.

Relax.

 

[Maldini]

if we vote to leave on 23rd June, then change our minds in December, we could only ever get back in on massively disadvantaged terms, as we'd have virtually no bargaining power.

Totally disagree with that. If I lose a good customer at work I'll try everything to get his business back.He has all the cards.

The UK is a massive economy and only when or if we vote to leave will Cameron be able to negotiate a good deal because I don't believe for one minute our goverment will let us leave the EU and the EU will be desperate to get us back.

As for trade deals,if Germany and the US have not come up with one and look like they won't anytime soon then why are we even talking about trade deals for us.

 

[jgmcdee]

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm not sure that 44% is small! It supports over 3m jobs.

thats doubful number, as our exports tend to be high value low labour products. but taken at face value, we must first accept the basic fact that it doesnt all disappear in a puff of economics, and secondly that trade lost can be replaced by exports to the wider world. it might not, but necessity is the mother of efforts. we can weigh up that short term financial cost against, longer term benefits and the future direction of this nation.

 

[heathgate]

The point is - it's a lot for us, but relatively insignificant for the rest of the EU. So, we have far, far more to lose than they do. We might not like it, but there it is.

I believe 6% just to us is a big hole to fill if it suddenly dissappears. .... so don't dismiss that as insignificant.

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[drew]

some trade deal with EU will be thrashed out within two years (as per Lisbon). control of border (such as it matters) on the same timeframe. cost, apparently, is 0.1% of GDP lost by 2030. discounting the benefits uncosted and unforseen in leaving. there you have it, the Remain campaign have told us.

btw Turkey being annexed to the EU, is happening. it wouldnt be full membership, probably more like a reverse Norway, where they get visa free movement to EU and we pay them an awful lot of cash. this isnt speculation, its under negotiation already as part of the EU mismangement of the Syrian crisis.



the difference being is that we could turn it down, not be party to an agreement negotiated by 27 others. the outcome of this is a net gain if we agree to anything, so would be an improvement on the current trade relations.

But like I said before, I understand our financial institutions are keen on elements of TTIP. You think we cherry pick what we like and the US will bend over backwards to accommodate us. That is naive.

 

[Jim in the West]

Jim, right from the start they would immediately lose a net contributor to the EU budget, we are helping to pay the membership fee of many .

If we are out then these billions of euros worth of slack will need to be taken up.........I doubt there are any countries that will happily just pick up the tab.

You may not think we matter to the EU, but we really really really matter to Ireland, the vast majority of that small country's trade is with the UK and the US.

If the EU wanted to impose tariffs on trade with the UK they would ruin the fragile recovering Irish economy, which just happens to be in the euro, the currency they have to do everything in their power to protect.

These current friends of ours may want to be vindictive to the UK in the face of a democratic decision by the UK electorate that they didn't like, however there would be wider consequences.........the inners may not like to recognise it, but there it us.

Relax.

I'm sure you have some good points there....but our net contribution isn't that great (when you factor in the rebate, what the EU contributes to our agriculture, all the infrastructure schemes which get funding from the EU, and grants for scientific funding). In 2015 our net contribution was just over £7bn. OK - it sounds quite significant, but our GDP last year was just over £1.9tn.....in other words, our net contribution to the EU last year was less than 0.4% of our GDP. And GDP is projected to grow by over 2% this year (in other words, in the two months between now and the EU referendum date the UK economy will have generated additional wealth equal to the annual net contribution to the EU).

Basically, the point is - the net contribution is minuscule when compared to the size of our overall economy.....and being in the EU is a massive boost to our economy. So in pure financial terms it's a great deal.

I'm not saying that pro-Brexiteers don't have some good arguments, but on economic grounds it is a complete and utter no-brainer to stay in (trust me - I'm a chartered accountant!!)