[Politics] Brexit

[CheeseRolls]

Jim, right from the start they would immediately lose a net contributor to the EU budget, we are helping to pay the membership fee of many .

If we are out then these billions of euros worth of slack will need to be taken up.........I doubt there are any countries that will happily just pick up the tab.

You may not think we matter to the EU, but we really really really matter to Ireland, the vast majority of that small country's trade is with the UK and the US.

If the EU wanted to impose tariffs on trade with the UK they would ruin the fragile recovering Irish economy, which just happens to be in the euro, the currency they have to do everything in their power to protect.

These current friends of ours may want to be vindictive to the UK in the face of a democratic decision by the UK electorate that they didn't like, however there would be wider consequences.........the inners may not like to recognise it, but there it us.

Relax.

As an inner I am VERY concerned at the prospect of reintroducing boarder controls in Ireland.

 

[Jim in the West]

I believe 6% just to us is a big hole to fill if it suddenly dissappears. .... so don't dismiss that as insignificant.

I'm not saying 6% is insignificant - but given that our exports to the EU are 44% of OUR economy, I know which side has more to lose....

 

[Jim in the West]

thats doubful number, as our exports tend to be high value low labour products. but taken at face value, we must first accept the basic fact that it doesnt all disappear in a puff of economics, and secondly that trade lost can be replaced by exports to the wider world. it might not, but necessity is the mother of efforts. we can weigh up that short term financial cost against, longer term benefits and the future direction of this nation.

Yes - you are right - our exports ARE generally higher value. That's why 44% of exports only translates into 3m jobs (and not a lot more). But 3m jobs is a helluva lot to gamble with, I think. And trade with the EU can only be replaced with trade to the rest of the world if we can do trade deals. You may not believe Obama, but it will almost certainly take years to negotiate anything with the US. I still haven't seen the Brexit camp come up with a list of countries who are queuing up to do trade deals with us (although I did hear Michael Gove advocating we follow the example of Albania.....)

 

[beorhthelm]

But like I said before, I understand our financial institutions are keen on elements of TTIP. You think we cherry pick what we like and the US will bend over backwards to accommodate us. That is naive.

no, i think that we can see whats on offer and if its not agreeable for us we have no deal, which is of no deterimental affect. you cannot lose what you do not have. *if* we engage in further trade with the US, we do not have to worry about the wine makers of France, tobacco growers of Spain or Italian textiles.

 

[5ways]

step 2 is UK or EU saying,looks like we have to say goodbye but shall we do a trade deal. Yeah ok,comes back the answer,you get your lot to put some proposals on paper and we will do they same. Meet you later for a chat and lets see what we can hammer out.

What you are doing by asking for the final fine details of a post Brexit negotiation is pointless and impossible.

Perhaps you can see why someone might feel this a little thin on which to make such a significant decision. The Out campaign needs to deliver a coherent message.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

I'm not saying 6% is insignificant - but given that our exports to the EU are 44% of OUR economy, I know which side has more to lose....

Just how do we lose those exports? In practice.....do the French close the tunnel,do the Germans send U boats out to blockade us?

 

[cunning fergus]

I'm sure you have some good points there....but our net contribution isn't that great (when you factor in the rebate, what the EU contributes to our agriculture, all the infrastructure schemes which get funding from the EU, and grants for scientific funding). In 2015 our net contribution was just over £7bn. OK - it sounds quite significant, but our GDP last year was just over £1.9tn.....in other words, our net contribution to the EU last year was less than 0.4% of our GDP. And GDP is projected to grow by over 2% this year (in other words, in the two months between now and the EU referendum date the UK economy will have generated additional wealth equal to the annual net contribution to the EU).

Basically, the point is - the net contribution is minuscule when compared to the size of our overall economy.....and being in the EU is a massive boost to our economy. So in pure financial terms it's a great deal.

I'm not saying that pro-Brexiteers don't have some good arguments, but on economic grounds it is a complete and utter no-brainer to stay in (trust me - I'm a chartered accountant!!)

If you are arguing about the benefits of the CAP I am all ears, this mechanism that keeps the prices of farmed goods artificially high and drains nearly half the EU budget is a reason on its own to exit. It is due to the CAP that we got the rebate I the first place, and it was and still remains disproportionate to our contribution.

The budget may be minuscule to our GDP but it is huge in comparison to the contribution of other members, and all the while we have to deal with the consequences of austerity here I don't understand why we are giving tax payers money to other EU states. It is our money, and what is worse we are borrowing more money than ever to just hand this money over to be spent in Bulgaria, Poland or wherever. That's madness.

As for the wider forecasts for economic growth, these are nothing more than predictions and have yet to factor in all the unknowns of how the EU will save the euro, the consequences of which may be catastrophic for the EU regardless of our vote.

The ECB is currently breaking its own rules to roll out QE and its moribund growth on the back of this programme is not indicating positive signals, unemployment is high particularly with the young is just another timebomb economically and politically.

You may be a chartered accountant, that does not add any credibility to your argument and I say that as a working class lad bought up in Moulsecoomb.

 

[cunning fergus]

As an inner I am VERY concerned at the prospect of reintroducing boarder controls in Ireland.

Have you though of half boarder controls?

 

[drew]

no, i think that we can see whats on offer and if its not agreeable for us we have no deal, which is of no deterimental affect. you cannot lose what you do not have. *if* we engage in further trade with the US, we do not have to worry about the wine makers of France, tobacco growers of Spain or Italian textiles.

But it isn't you or me that will be negotiating the terms. You might not like the terms but big business will. So, in or out, it won't be you democratically deciding what happens.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30493297

 

[pastafarian]

Perhaps you can see why someone might feel this a little thin on which to make such a significant decision. .

No i cant,especially when weighed alongside all the other very good reasons for leaving.

The Out campaign needs to deliver a coherent message.

it does and it is consistent
we dont want to be in your club anymore

 

[CheeseRolls]

Have you though of half boarder controls?

See told you I was worried, even my spelling is taking a turn for the worse.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

If the result on here is a true reflection of how people are going to vote on June 23rd, I really hope we don't end up in a situation of we told you so, later down the line. This vote is final, we will never get this chance again.

A vote for Remain is a vote for even closer integration, loss of more powers and sovereignty, increased payments to the EU, possible adoption of the EURO, and no control of our borders ever.

 

[pastafarian]

The key issue is political - if we did vote to leave, the EU would be desperate to ensure no one else left, and they would do their absolute damnedest to ensure we had a really, really crappy trade deal.
.

Ive heard quite a few people come out with this opinion, I find it a bit baffling to be honest. It seems more an opinion of desperate scaremongers as opposed to anyone who has watched EU diplomacy over the decades. It raises some important questions though.

Are the EU in the business of doing really really crap trade deals?

Given that any really really crap trade deal would place the same conditions on the UK and The EU, why would the EU willingly impose really really crap conditions on its own members?

If the above were true and really really crap trade was imposed on the EU and the UK wouldn’t the manufacturers and businesses in the EU be a bit peeved and demand answers of their governments?

And how does the EU impose this really really crap trade deal on itself and the UK if members dont want a really really crap trade deal.......are members now second class citizens?

Lastly, if this is the mentality of the EU, it shows how vindictive they can be to not only a member leaving but also how they could not give a toss about current members either,all just to teach the leaver a lesson……..Why would you want to be in that sort of club in the first place? Who needs friends like that.

so many questions about this thinking but in all honesty im thinking its simply just a really really crap scare story with no basis on reality

 

[pastafarian]

Why will it be too late? We can leave the EU any time we want. We don't need a referendum. Parliament can vote on this at any time. In fact, if they wanted to, MPs could arrange a vote next week and, if a majority of MPs voted to leave, we could start the process. In the same vein, if the vote on 23rd June is to STAY, then - if we feel we've been stitched up six months later, we can simply hold a vote in Parliament.
.

Good points.

As Herr T says good points

Herr T,is opposed to referendums and want governments to govern.
Im sure he will then agree with the democratic principle of a UKIP majority in a future parliament and MP`s simply voting for us to leave the union without another referendum. Job done …..game over.

Of course it could never happen,UKIP will just drift away into the breeze after a remain vote just like the SNP did in scotland

 

[pastafarian]

A vote for Remain is a vote for even closer integration, loss of more powers and sovereignty, increased payments to the EU, possible adoption of the EURO, and no control of our borders ever.

Its also a green light for the EU superstate where your voice is never heard
some people like to be controlled, and have their hand held in their daily life

i just dont get it

 

[cunning fergus]

See told you I was worried, even my spelling is taking a turn for the worse.

Let he who is without spin cast the first stone..........

 

[Jim in the West]

...so many questions about this thinking but in all honesty im thinking its simply just a really really crap scare story with no basis on reality

As you say - that's your thinking. But you have no idea.....neither does anyone else. It's a helluva gamble to take, isn't it? I don't have any massive love for the EU, but economically it works to our advantage, and we have absolutely no idea what the alternative scenario is. Gove thinks we could follow the Albanian model. It doesn't sound very enticing to me. Better the devil you know.....

 

[pastafarian]

As you say - that's your thinking. But you have no idea.....neither does anyone else. It's a helluva gamble to take, isn't it? I don't have any massive love for the EU, but economically it works to our advantage, and we have absolutely no idea what the alternative scenario is. Gove thinks we could follow the Albanian model. It doesn't sound very enticing to me. Better the devil you know.....

you didnt answer though
why would the EU impose a really really crap trade deal (your words) on the UK and itself

 

[heathgate]

I'm not saying 6% is insignificant - but given that our exports to the EU are 44% of OUR economy, I know which side has more to lose....

I have done some research.... the figure you are looking for is actually 16%.... as stated by the IMF direction of Trade Statictics in Nov 15 ( dyor)..... £265 billion.... so as I said... they have as much interest in maintaining that market as we do.... a deal will be done... and quickly.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

If the result on here is a true reflection of how people are going to vote on June 23rd, I really hope we don't end up in a situation of we told you so, later down the line.

I can assure you there will be no gloating from me. Equally, I hope the little Englanders are magnanimous.