[Politics] Brexit

[cunning fergus]

You’re not paying attention Fergus. That’s on you, not us. Step out of your mum’s basement occasionally.

The City of London is showing a slow bleed, not an immediate collapse.

House prices are absolutely resilient (supply vs demand) right up until landlords realise that the rents they need to demand to be profitable are out of reach of prospective tenants. Then everyone wants their property to sell first, and needs someone to sell their property to.

There’s pent-up demand in terms of first time buyers, but not infinite pent-up demand. Once word of a trickle starts, there’s the possibility of a flood. That’s the scenario to fear. Prospective buyers sitting back and saying “if I hold off, the prices will be even lower next month.”

Corporate landlords can sell at portfolio level and walk away with nothing worse than a haircut. However, the people who were banking on the property they’re renting out for their pension, but still have to pay the mortgage on it now, could be in real trouble.

Let’s hope not too many have to remortgage in this period and we avoid this scenario that would cause disruption for thousands. It feels like we may have dodged the bullet if mortgage rates continue to fall, but that’s absolutely not a certainty if inflation proves sticky.

I’m glad you feel that everything’s rosy, I’m all for a bit of happiness in the world, but I’m not convinced that your single article from June 2022 captures the current state of the housing market. I’m afraid it also does nothing to suggest that Brexit has been a success for the United Kingdom.

My mums dead chap, I would need to dig her out of woodvale first to get to her basement.

The world wasn’t fair before Brexit it won’t be after it. The hard truth is predictions of an 18 % drop in house prices never happened, nor did the unemployment tsunami, nor has the city of London collapsed.

You need to stop digging.

 

[Simster]

My mums dead chap, I would need to dig her out of woodvale first to get to her basement.

The world wasn’t fair before Brexit it won’t be after it. The hard truth is predictions of an 18 % drop in house prices never happened, nor did the unemployment tsunami, nor has the city of London collapsed.

You need to stop digging.

He didn't say house prices were going to drop 18%, he didn't say London would collapse. You said you read it and they didn't happen.

The sort of hollow/non sequitur argument we've come to expect from Brexit apologists.

I look forward to you refuting his actual claim which is that London trade is bleeding and will be a slow decline. Because the fact that London hasn't been decimated overnight isn't actually a Brexit win I'm afraid.

 

[chickens]

My mums dead chap, I would need to dig her out of woodvale first to get to her basement.

The world wasn’t fair before Brexit it won’t be after it. The hard truth is predictions of an 18 % drop in house prices never happened, nor did the unemployment tsunami, nor has the city of London collapsed.

You need to stop digging.

I read Brexit was going to lead us to sunlit uplands, improve our trade situation, provide significantly increased funding for the NHS, and for infrastructure, provide millions of high-skilled, high-paid jobs, return our farming and fishing industries to the top of the pile and provide such a massive boost to the economy that we were all going to be incredibly prosperous and the envy of Europe.

Are you sure it’s me that needs to stop digging?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Welcome to NSC Mr von der leyen ... seriously though, after serving in a government in office for 15 years and as defence minister for the last 5 years only 20 percent of Germany’s combat helicopters and fewer than 30 percent of its Eurofighter jets could fly, the standard issue rifle couldn't shoot straight if it got hot ... soldiers had to use their mobile phones on exercises because they didn't have the right kit ... but but according to you she was very capable and loyal.

And you say my detachment from reality is breathtaking!

Time to take those Europhile blinkers off Chicken.

Having worked on a major multi uk/European defence contract I can say that you‘ve no idea. Added to that take a look at how well UK defence programs have been run under this bunch of clowns. Time to take of the Brexit/Tory gimp mask.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

If you want to debate economic self harm especially for the poor you would assess the effect of QE first, we have had over 10 years of it.

https://www.omfif.org/2022/12/uk-treasury-faces-steep-price-for-quantitative-easing-policy/

You keep shitting the bed about Brexit, compared to QE and the pandemic splurge that we will have to sustain for decades, Brexit is like a man who has lost his arms in a haybaler moaning about an ingrowing toenail.

Too many economic mice on here.

The article you provide a link to talks about banks “across the world”.
Because of Brexit we are standing alone. The rest of Europe has….. well, the rest of Europe to support it. So Brexit means we are still worse off than anyone else.
There was an article in the Observer a couple of weeks ago by Will Hutton, a respected economist, bemoaning the effect of Brexit and how isolated we are, how much we are worse off because of the silly decision we made in 2016. I will try and find it.

edit: here it is:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-rich-nation-gone-bust?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
he quotes Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, as saying we are relying on “the kindness of strangers”, precisely because we are not part of a larger support group……

 

[WATFORD zero]

My mums dead chap, I would need to dig her out of woodvale first to get to her basement.

The world wasn’t fair before Brexit it won’t be after it. The hard truth is predictions of an 18 % drop in house prices never happened, nor did the unemployment tsunami, nor has the city of London collapsed.

You need to stop digging.

That's your Brexit benefit list is it ? So your years of campaigning for the brilliance of Brexit has now become 'of course it's a complete shitshow exactly as you predicted, but it could have been even worse'

And maybe you should be a little more patient, we haven't even been out 3 years yet. There's still years of 'Getting Brexit Done' still to do and it's effects to come, despite the various three word slogans that won your vote

 

[Mental Lental]

The article you provide a link to talks about banks “across the world”.
Because of Brexit we are standing alone. The rest of Europe has….. well, the rest of Europe to support it. So Brexit means we are still worse off than anyone else.
There was an article in the Observer a couple of weeks ago by Will Hutton, a respected economist, bemoaning the effect of Brexit and how isolated we are, how much we are worse off because of the silly decision we made in 2016. I will try and find it.

edit: here it is:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-rich-nation-gone-bust?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
he quotes Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, as saying we are relying on “the kindness of strangers”, precisely because we are not part of a larger support group……

I've got this twat on ignore because he will take one look at that link, see it's from The Guardian, and just "nope" out. It's better to dig out the sources that the Guardian lists for yourself and present it that way. Or better still, mock him and then put him on ignore so that you will perennially have the last word and will never have to listen to his drivel again.

 

[vegster]

Just got back from a drive around Europe

Left via the Chunnel - passport control at Folkestone - British guy looked at us suspiciously, French guy waved us through.
Drove from France through Belgium and Luxembourg to Germany and then back into France.

Literally the only way we knew that we had crossed "borders", was when the phone company texted about charge rates.
Roads empty and efficient and well maintained.
Visted Alsace and bought some wine from a small vineyard, and as is usual finished it all before we got back!!.
So, visited the website of the producer to see if we could order more.
After a couple of attempts by them to to ship the stuff, I received the following

Hello, I'm sorry but we had to request a different registration number from UK customs and have not received it yet. We are unable to ship your order at this time. The announced delay is 15 days. Apologies once again.

And then a few days later,
Good morning, unfortunately, I am very sorry but we will not be able to ship your order. The constraints are finally too high for sending wine, and as we do it very rarely and everything has changed since we did it last time. There is a good chance the package will return or that there will be huge custom fees.

I know it's first world problems but - Bloody French

Returned via the Chunnel - British Passport control (stern older lady who barked at us), ordered us to wind down windows and asked what was underneath the blankets on the back seat). I was tempted to reply that it was a couple of nice Albanian lads who had asked for a lift, but didn't fancy a strip search!
Back on the M20 and M25 and M1, to potholes and jams and sewerage in rivers, and a Government who think that the pollution needs to get worse and twats who still think Brexit was a good idea.


Makes my heart bleed.....

Heard from Ciaran the Euro Courier that, when Biometric testing comes in, there won't be enough time to process all the vehicles and occupants for a full Chunnel train between journeys. In order to maintain the schedule trains will run approx only 75% full. Therefore more costs for Le Tunnel so expect fare increases.

 

[Wokeworrier]

Having worked on a major multi uk/European defence contract I can say that you‘ve no idea. Added to that take a look at how well UK defence programs have been run under this bunch of clowns. Time to take of the Brexit/Tory gimp mask.

Are you sure it wasn't a fence contract? No idea indeed ..

BBC News - German army problems 'dramatically bad', report says

German army problems 'dramatically bad', report says

The report highlights numerous issues with the Bundeswehr, including disrepair and a lack of staff.

www.bbc.co.uk

Missing in action: two thirds of Germany’s top military kit unusable

Two thirds of Germany’s most modern artillery kit is unusable, according to a leaked defence ministry assessment that emerged days after an entire contingent

www.thetimes.co.uk

German army chief 'fed up' with neglect of country's military

The chief of the German army vented his frustration over what he sees as the long-running neglect of military readiness in his country in an unusual public rant a few hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, adding that the army was in bad shape.

www.reuters.com

 

[cunning fergus]

He didn't say house prices were going to drop 18%, he didn't say London would collapse. You said you read it and they didn't happen.

The sort of hollow/non sequitur argument we've come to expect from Brexit apologists.

I look forward to you refuting his actual claim which is that London trade is bleeding and will be a slow decline. Because the fact that London hasn't been decimated overnight isn't actually a Brexit win I'm afraid.

He didn't say house prices were going to drop 18%, he didn't say London would collapse. You said you read it and they didn't happen.

The sort of hollow/non sequitur argument we've come to expect from Brexit apologists.

I look forward to you refuting his actual claim which is that London trade is bleeding and will be a slow decline. Because the fact that London hasn't been decimated overnight isn't actually a Brexit win I'm afraid.

What you talking about Willis? George Osbourne said we would get an 18% drop in house prices and CBI quoted nearly 1m in job losses………..nothing of the sort has happened so the predictions sold by many senior politicians and venerable institutions were manifestly wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...could-cost-100bn-and-nearly-1m-jobs-cbi-warns

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/eu-referendum-george-osborne-house-prices-brexit

Irrefutable FACT…………as for the slow bleed, time will tell. As I have said on here before transposing existing contracts (many using U.K. trust law) to the European Napoleonic code system would be a massive challenge, there ain’t enough European lawyers to do it. So, take the mattress out to the garden for a drying.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

I've got this twat on ignore because he will take one look at that link, see it's from The Guardian, and just "nope" out. It's better to dig out the sources that the Guardian lists for yourself and present it that way. Or better still, mock him and then put him on ignore so that you will perennially have the last word and will never have to listen to his drivel again.

I haven’t got anyone on ignore - I just skim past them if they’re too ridiculous.

but given his comment about “economic mice”, I just wanted to quote something which went against his ridiculous postulations with two heavyweight economists…….. if he totally ignores it and won’t read something from the Guardian, that’s his problem/loss.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Are you sure it wasn't a fence contract? No idea indeed ..

BBC News - German army problems 'dramatically bad', report says

German army problems 'dramatically bad', report says

The report highlights numerous issues with the Bundeswehr, including disrepair and a lack of staff.

www.bbc.co.uk

Missing in action: two thirds of Germany’s top military kit unusable

Two thirds of Germany’s most modern artillery kit is unusable, according to a leaked defence ministry assessment that emerged days after an entire contingent

www.thetimes.co.uk

German army chief 'fed up' with neglect of country's military

The chief of the German army vented his frustration over what he sees as the long-running neglect of military readiness in his country in an unusual public rant a few hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, adding that the army was in bad shape.

www.reuters.com

Look over there

You can keep changing your accounts but the whataboutism and idiocy still continues unabated. Maybe you should start a thread dedicated to German whataboutism

This is the Brexit thread where you can list all the benefits of Brexit that you campaigned for

Regaining the power to vote out the people who enact the policies/laws effecting our lives. Regaining full control over immigration. Decreasing demand on housing by limiting immigration. Boosting exports with a competitive pound? Increased job opportunities - see limiting immigration. Retaining some individual British identity - see immigration. Regaining the primacy of UK law so we can deport terrorist campaigners when we see fit. Regaining the power to trade with some of the biggest and fastest growing economies in the world - quality goods at cheaper prices? Improved services in the country as we can plan for the likely demand - see immigration. Regain a bit of self respect so we prove the public aren't going to be bullied manipulated by big business/political establishment. Regain a spine to show we aren't afraid of change and have faith in this country to succeed without being subservient to the EU political project ... just like the vast majority of countries around the world.

Benefits of staying in - we might be a bit better off in 10,20,30 years time if you believe forecasters with huge vested interests who can't even correctly predict 1 year in advance.

You know, this sort of thing

 

[chickens]

Welcome to NSC Mr von der leyen ... seriously though, after serving in a government in office for 15 years and as defence minister for the last 5 years only 20 percent of Germany’s combat helicopters and fewer than 30 percent of its Eurofighter jets could fly, the standard issue rifle couldn't shoot straight if it got hot ... soldiers had to use their mobile phones on exercises because they didn't have the right kit ... but but according to you she was very capable and loyal.

And you say my detachment from reality is breathtaking!

Time to take those Europhile blinkers off Chicken.

Ok, you’ve had a couple of chances to answer the two direct questions I’ve asked you.

One more chance, and if you still find yourself unable to answer the straightforward direct questions I’ve asked you, then onto ignore as yet another pointless whataboutery merchant. I even numbered the questions for you so you didn’t get lost. Post 126511 if you’re struggling.

I’m not interested in chatting about German helicopters, this thread’s about Brexit.

 

[cunning fergus]

The article you provide a link to talks about banks “across the world”.
Because of Brexit we are standing alone. The rest of Europe has….. well, the rest of Europe to support it. So Brexit means we are still worse off than anyone else.
There was an article in the Observer a couple of weeks ago by Will Hutton, a respected economist, bemoaning the effect of Brexit and how isolated we are, how much we are worse off because of the silly decision we made in 2016. I will try and find it.

edit: here it is:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-rich-nation-gone-bust?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
he quotes Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, as saying we are relying on “the kindness of strangers”, precisely because we are not part of a larger support group……

Oh yeah, Mark Carey, even soaking wet euro enthusiast Jonathan Portes thinks Carney’s narratives are bollox……..

https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/11/brexit-damage-uk-economy-mark-carney

We got money to burn, we’re spending 6m a day to make our new arrivals safe, we’re the second largest donor to Ukraine, we are sending money to many countries with armies and space programmes in excess of our own…………we’re evidently not poor are we?

 

[WATFORD zero]

Oh yeah, Mark Carey, even soaking wet euro enthusiast Jonathan Portes thinks Carney’s narratives are bollox……..

https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/11/brexit-damage-uk-economy-mark-carney

We got money to burn, we’re spending 6m a day to make our new arrivals safe, we’re the second largest donor to Ukraine, we are sending money to many countries with armies and space programmes in excess of our own…………we’re evidently not poor are we?

Well that was unexpected, back onto immigration, the biggest single lie of the whole Brexit farce sold to the terminally naïve

 

[cunning fergus]

Heard from Ciaran the Euro Courier that, when Biometric testing comes in, there won't be enough time to process all the vehicles and occupants for a full Chunnel train between journeys. In order to maintain the schedule trains will run approx only 75% full. Therefore more costs for Le Tunnel so expect fare increases.

You may have missed a meeting but travel is already more expensive for many people in London.

Looks like the EU courtesy of the French are looking to price out the poor from international travel.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/france-calls-for-minimum-price-on-european-flights/

I bet the poorer working around the EU will roll their eyes at this initiative to make travel more expensive and then hiss about Brexit…..

 

[Randy McNob]

That's your Brexit benefit list is it ? So your years of campaigning for the brilliance of Brexit has now become 'of course it's a complete shitshow exactly as you predicted, but it could have been even worse'

And maybe you should be a little more patient, we haven't even been out 3 years yet. There's still years of 'Getting Brexit Done' still to do and it's effects to come, despite the various three word slogans that won your vote

I always find it odd when people argue that a certain economic sector has improved slightly, or an EU country is struggling or, some more jobs have been created whether or not Brexit made it happen, but they are personally poorer as a direct result of Brexit. I think it was around 1,500 GBP worse off per household at the last count.

Surely economic benefits are only good if that translates into higher wealth per capita?

 

[Frutos]

90 minutes from our first ever European draw and you lot are going round in the same, pointless circles.

What the hell is the point? No-one has changed their opinion one iota for years.

 

[chickens]

90 minutes from our first ever European draw and you lot are going round in the same, pointless circles.

What the hell is the point? No-one has changed their opinion one iota for years.

We’ve got a whole 90 minutes to continue circling yet!

 

[WATFORD zero]

90 minutes from our first ever European draw and you lot are going round in the same, pointless circles.

What the hell is the point? No-one has changed their opinion one iota for years.

Well two of the posters never post on anything Albion related and I'm guessing the rest of us can multi-task

And I'm afraid recent polls show record levels of people changing their opinion. Maybe you should check this thread more often to keep up with developments