[Politics] Brexit

[nicko31]

[tweet]1355835984856961025[/tweet]

Signing an FTA with a someone to make us poorer, no country has done that recently have they?

 

[peterward]

You're absolutely correct. I was mixing up my CPTPP with my APEC (my geography is not good and they're both in the same directionish), hence why I said about trading the largest economic bloc for the 6th biggest trading bloc in the world in my earlier post.

CPTPP aren't even close to the top 10, but on the plus side, we don't have to worry about the US and China yet

They account for low teens as a % of total global trade, its significant, but not game changing...... everything, Ive read suggests the CPTPP want the UK in and joining should't be an issue....... though we have roll over agreements with some of the countries already, so maybe slightly better, but its not a net gain of all these nations............whilst there is requirement for commonality on standards, there is no single market or customs unions, which is key and allows for UK to join other groupings too..

Something else that may be of big interest (and maybe one of the drivers for the UK) is CPTPP invited the US to join, the US made overtures that they might, Trump looked at it and pulled the plug. Though Biden is apparently keen from reports........... maybe he wont or at least not in the short term, but if we're in and we or others can pursuade the US to join, or Biden does do it, there's your backdoor 95% tariff free trade deal with the US. That would be huge.

 

[WATFORD zero]

They account for low teens as a % of total global trade, its significant, but not game changing...... everything, Ive read suggests the CPTPP want the UK in and joining should't be an issue....... though we have roll over agreements with some of the countries already, so maybe slightly better, but its not a net gain of all these nations............whilst there is requirement for commonality on standards, there is no single market or customs unions, which is key and allows for UK to join other groupings too..

Something else that may be of big interest (and maybe one of the drivers for the UK) is CPTPP invited the US to join, the US made overtures that they might, Trump looked at it and pulled the plug. Though Biden is apparently keen from reports........... maybe he wont or at least not in the short term, but if we're in and we or others can pursuade the US to join, or Biden does do it, there's your backdoor 95% tariff free trade deal with the US. That would be huge.

I know we started discussing membership with them 3 years ago (a few months before it was actually formed) as a possible post Brexit deal. I'm just surprised it's been left until a year after we left the EU to actually kick off the application process.

Trade deals traditionally take a while to negotiate, but it is undoubtedly good (and desperately needed) trade news

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I know we started discussing membership with them 3 years ago (a few months before it was actually formed) as a possible post Brexit deal. I'm just surprised it's been left until a year after we left the EU to actually kick off the application process.

Trade deals traditionally take a while to negotiate, but it is undoubtedly good (and desperately needed) trade news

Indeed, this is potentially good news and might mitigate some of the negatives arising from our departure from the SEM and CU of the EU. Some of the Brxit brigade are only too happy to portray all of us on the Remain side as not only harbingers of doom but revellers in it. It is perfectly cognitively possible to be both critical of leaving the EU whilst at the same time hoping that the impact is not as bad as feared.

Similarly it's possible to be in favour of remaining in the EU whilst still being critical of some aspects of its operations - and the vaccines issue certainly has not been its finest hour.

How refreshing it would be if our one-eyed brethren on the other side might occasionally

a) acknowledge these positions as valid (and not '5th columnist' and other such juvenile nonsense)
b) be something other than 100% fanboys of the motivations, processes and negative outcomes of Brexit. Just one of many examples: that Trump-worshipping Farage is a w*anker?

 

[beorhthelm]

Apparently a referendum result is sacrosanct when taking actions such as joining or leaving trading blocs so I naturally assumed there would be one for joining CPTPP. But still it's good to know when the time comes we can rejoin EFTA (and possibly the full EU) without one.

is the EU nothing more than trade bloc then? you do it a great disservice, obviously there are many other benefits, freedom of movement, stand regulations, social, judicial and economic integration etc.

 

[pastafarian]

Anyone know when we get to vote in the CPTPP elections? After all, wouldn't want to be joining something which impinges on our national sovereignty in an undemocratic way, would we?

What were the results of the last CPTPP elections? When are the next CPTPP elections? What is up for grabs?

 

[A1X]

Not sure if it's come up yet or not but I'd be interested to see how us joining a free trade organisation where every other member is on the other side of the world tallies up with our emission targets under the Paris Agreement among others

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Great news ! , day is day night is night , went shopping got the food I wanted ,filled the car up with petrol no problem.got some cash out of the cash point no problem, going to order a curry later , any news on a emergency budget that could be a problem
Regards
DF

 

[Chicken Run]

Not sure if it's come up yet or not but I'd be interested to see how us joining a free trade organisation where every other member is on the other side of the world tallies up with our emission targets under the Paris Agreement among others

Maybe they can put that in a referendum question? [emoji23][emoji120][emoji23]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[peterward]

Not sure if it's come up yet or not but I'd be interested to see how us joining a free trade organisation where every other member is on the other side of the world tallies up with our emission targets under the Paris Agreement among others

Our biggest export is in services and much of that is digital and not physical product. Of course if we were in the EU and they signed the same, you wouldn't be raising the Paris agreement would you.

 

[Randy McNob]

What were the results of the last CPTPP elections? When are the next CPTPP elections? What is up for grabs?

You wouldn't want to join something undemocratic would you

 

[Randy McNob]

[tweet]1355978020918611977[/tweet]

 

[A1X]

Our biggest export is in services and much of that is digital and not physical product. Of course if we were in the EU and they signed the same, you wouldn't be raising the Paris agreement would you.

No because Belgium is closer than Indonesia.

 

[pastafarian]

You wouldn't want to join something undemocratic would you

No i wouldnt.
Its one of the reasons i voted out of the EU when the opportunity was finally given to me.

Who are you referring to as undemocratic in the context of CPTPP considering it was a post about CPTPP you replied to?

 

[Randy McNob]

No i wouldnt.
Its one of the reasons i voted out of the EU when the opportunity was finally given to me.

Who are you referring to as undemocratic in the context of CPTPP considering it was a post about CPTPP you replied to?

it was a tongue in cheek comment

 

[pastafarian]

it was a tongue in cheek comment

I suggest to stop rimming yourself then.
Your comments are becoming dafter with every post.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Our biggest export is in services and much of that is digital and not physical product. Of course if we were in the EU and they signed the same, you wouldn't be raising the Paris agreement would you.

Absolutely, which makes it totally moronic that there is absolutely nothing for services in the Brexit Deal and we don't have any passporting and equivalence while we spent years arguing about fishing

Is London’s financial center doomed to decline after Brexit?

London’s financial center — the City, as it’s known — is the most successful industry in Britain.“We’re the country’s biggest taxpayer,” Emma Reynolds, of the center’s main trade body, TheCityUK, pointed out. “We’re the U.K.’s biggest exporter, too,” she said. “In fact, we’re the world’s biggest exporter of financial services, bigger even than New York, the world’s other great global financial center. We’re a major employer, as well.”

“That’s 10,000 fewer jobs in London than there were. And 10,000 more jobs elsewhere in the European Union,” said Sir Mark Boleat, a leading figure in the City and a fierce opponent of Brexit.“There’s been one forecast that eventually 75,000 jobs could be lost, and I think that doesn’t look unrealistic,” Boleat gloomily observed.

The problem stems from the loss of so-called passporting rights. When the U.K. left the European Union, the City gave up the automatic right to sell its services freely throughout the remaining 27 member states. Financial services were not included in the free trade deal the U.K. struck with Brussels.

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/27/is-londons-financial-center-doomed-to-decline-after-brexit/

 

[peterward]

Absolutely, which makes it totally moronic that there is absolutely nothing for services in the Brexit Deal and we don't have any passporting and equivalence while we spent years arguing about fishing

Is London’s financial center doomed to decline after Brexit?

London’s financial center — the City, as it’s known — is the most successful industry in Britain.“We’re the country’s biggest taxpayer,” Emma Reynolds, of the center’s main trade body, TheCityUK, pointed out. “We’re the U.K.’s biggest exporter, too,” she said. “In fact, we’re the world’s biggest exporter of financial services, bigger even than New York, the world’s other great global financial center. We’re a major employer, as well.”

“That’s 10,000 fewer jobs in London than there were. And 10,000 more jobs elsewhere in the European Union,” said Sir Mark Boleat, a leading figure in the City and a fierce opponent of Brexit.“There’s been one forecast that eventually 75,000 jobs could be lost, and I think that doesn’t look unrealistic,” Boleat gloomily observed.

The problem stems from the loss of so-called passporting rights. When the U.K. left the European Union, the City gave up the automatic right to sell its services freely throughout the remaining 27 member states. Financial services were not included in the free trade deal the U.K. struck with Brussels.

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/27/is-londons-financial-center-doomed-to-decline-after-brexit/

I agree it seems bizarre that hasn't been addressed fully. And from everything I read, as always, it's Macron saying we shouldnt get it, unless we pay into EU budget......he obviously eyes up poaching some of that market.

That said, I don't think the UK will accept any worst case doomsday type deal, as the article highlights (as the worst case). They'll be leverage and just like the previous broader deal, at the end my money is on some form of passporting being allowed.

No chance the UK will accept that worst case, nuclear options like revocation of fishing access in Macrons election year, massive tarrifs on French wine and German cars might quicken minds. We import twice as much as we export.

Doubt it will get to that, a deal will be done imho

 

[WATFORD zero]

I agree it seems bizarre that hasn't been addressed fully. And from everything I read, as always, it's Macron saying we shouldnt get it, unless we pay into EU budget......he obviously eyes up poaching some of that market.

That said, I don't think the UK will accept any worst case doomsday type deal, as the article highlights (as the worst case). They'll be leverage and just like the previous broader deal, at the end my money is on some form of passporting being allowed.

No chance the UK will accept that, nuclear options like revocation of fishing access in Macrons election year, massive tarrifs on French wine and German cars might quicken minds. We import twice as much as we export.

Doubt it will get to that, a deal will be done imho

The problem being that significant amounts have already moved to the EU and are continuing. The EU insisting that all trading on all European shares hasn't helped and that is currently moving across (see below) and isn't coming back. There is absolutely no benefit to the EU of getting a deal done on this and certainly not quickly. There's now talk of further de-regulatiion in the hope of clawing some business back from elsewhere in the world.

The simple fact is that the Brexit deal was done and dusted leaving out the largest part of our economy.

€6bn of EU share dealing rerouted from London to new European hubs on first day of trading

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/business-economics/e6bn-of-eu-share-dealing-rerouted-from-london-to-new-european-hubs-on-first-day-of-trading/05/01/

 

[nicko31]

The problem being that significant amounts have already moved to the EU and are continuing and the EU insisting that all trading on all European shares hasn't helped and that is currently moving across. There is absolutely no benefit to the EU of getting a deal done on this and certainly not quickly. There's now talk of further de-regulatiion in the hope of clawing some business back from elsewhere in the world.

The simple fact is that the Brexit deal was done and dusted leaving out the largest part of our economy.

Services exports to the EU is 16% of the economy

To say its criminal to not get a deal on this in the FTA is an understatement.

They've f**ked it up and gave the EU a free hand in goods where they have a huge trade surplus.

The Moody credit downgrade on the UK says it all