[Politics] Brexit

[vegster]

Hmmmm, I just can't agree with either point.

The Leave Campaign solely targeted simplistic single issue soundbites.

The racists were handed a cure all for immigration. (Please don't make me search Farage and the billboards)
The Monarchists were to be given their sovereign identity back (not that it was ever taken from them)
The Soppy Bollox were told the NHS was in decline and £350m a week would save it.
The Working Classes were given all of the above and a brilliant future making cars.


For me personally I didn't know what I was voting for to stay, I personally just didn't like the Leave rhetoric.

As a result had we voted to Remain I probably still wouldn't have known what I voted for.
But crucially had I known then what I now know about the EU I would have voted, campaigned, screamed from the rooftops that we MUST STAY in the EU.

If in an unlikely second referendum people still voted to leave it would underline the fact what an appalling idea referendums were in the first place.

Nicely put.

 

[Baldseagull]

Here we go.... Those who voted leave didn't know what they were voting for? It's so condescending.

If you followed all the political debate at the time, the government and senior Labour figures pre vote said if we vote to leave that we would leave the EU, the customs union, the single market. That the referendum was either once in a lifetime of once in a generation etc. The Ballot paper conferred that with do you wish to "leave the European Union"
Then parliament voted to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, an EU treaty law, that clearly shows the process of leaving EU, is a 2 year window ending with full leaving of all EU institutions and the EU political union. And that is it, the rest is added later, That was the facts of process known before the vote....... after the vote parliament overwhelmingly voted to trigger that process by triggering article 50.

Of course leaving for some was about singular issues like immigration etc, but it's simplistic in the extreme to suggest that all leave voters voted on a simplistic notion or single issue. I wouldn't suggest remainers are I'll informed or don't know what the vote on, they simply have fundamental difference of opinion of long term outlook for the UK.
fwiw leaving on most favourable terms is of course most preferable, but "a deal" is not part of that legal article 50 process. The process was clear as were political declarations from both major parties prior to the referendum. Could anyone of predicted where we are now? No, but that's hugely in part by an incompetent PM and remain MPs trying to circumvent leaving by any means.

But you didn't, maybe there is a misunderstanding here, no one is saying you didn't have expectations, what is being said is that you had no logical reason to believe that it would end up as you expected, the proposition was too vague.
A deal is not explicit in Article 50, but it does say "the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union." and the leave campaign was clear, this would be easy to do, the EU would bend over backwards to accommodate us.
It seems to me, you are asking us to believe, that you didn't believe the leave campaign, you had a much more "project fear" based belief, and voted to leave on that basis?

 

[Baldseagull]

Hard and soft are constructs of the media! They would argue that it's either leaving fully... brexit, or not leaving fully... brexit in name only. The DUP whilst brexit supporters are more concerned about the backstop causing regulatory disalignment with rest of UK. May's deal is crap as is she as a PM, that's why the voted it down !
I'm a moderate not ERG'esque , I would love clean brexit and thought I voted for that, but still I would accept CU with all its hindrances to get out of the EU political union which is the number 1 imperative.

A bit late in the day to be asking, but what is your problem with our current Political relationship with the EU?

 

[vegster]

12 April 2016

Out of interest I went to the start of the thread to see if I could find anyone, one of the relentless pro-Brexit campaigners, explaining coherently why they wanted to leave. I wanted to see whether the reasons 'feel' like all this nightmare has been worth it, and whether they had any idea of a plan. After several pages, what I paste below is the best I could find. To think that we had an in-out referendum to resolve 'issues' such as this.

"Out for a few reasons.

I have more belief in this country and it's people's ability to thrive as a more independent nation just like the vast majority of other countries in the world, than those who are happy to defer to an EU overlord.

Prefer to have the chance to vote out the people who make the policies and laws that effect this country.

I would rather this country retain some sort of unique British identity rather than be subsumed into a multicultural mish mash.

Cooperation and partnership with our friends in Europe does not have to be conducted through an ever expanding all encompassing political project which is causing instability across Europe.

I welcome controlled immigration but we haven't got it. Immigration is too high over 50% of the public think this is a concern only by voting out do we regain the power to stem the flow.

I would rather the insufficient housing stock and any future builds be prioritised for UK citizens. Same goes for jobs.

This is a once in a lifetime chance they won't let us near real power ever again, far to risky, so think long term ... an inevitable drive to a Superstate including Turkey. There's another 70 million potential new UK citizens. Probably be bullied into having the Euro using the same doomsday arguments by the same vested interests at some point.

We can better spend the £13 Billion we sent to Brussels last year on projects like the NHS or revitalising a UK steel industry.

For those who are more anti establishment/ big business minded perhaps ask why the UK/European elites combined with big business all want us to stay in and threaten numerous doomsday scenarios if we dare think differently.

This will be the only chance we will ever get to exercise true direct power over the future of this country it would be a shame to do as we're told. "

Many of these complaints could have been better addressed by the simple expedient of voting for MEP's who actually wanted to debate and be part of the decision making process's rather than automatically oppose or abstain or fail to attend business in the European Parliament.

It always tickles me that Farage is seen as THE man of the people and champion of British Fishermen yet he usually failed to attend Fisheries Committee meetings of which he was a member.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Many of these complaints could have been better addressed by the simple expedient of voting for MEP's who actually wanted to debate and be part of the decision making process's rather than automatically oppose or abstain or fail to attend business in the European Parliament.

It always tickles me that Farage is seen as THE man of the people and champion of British Fishermen yet he usually failed to attend Fisheries Committee meetings of which he was a member.

Take the money, don't participate, don't even turn up, and then whine that Britain aren't getting what they want

 

[peterward]

But you didn't, maybe there is a misunderstanding here, no one is saying you didn't have expectations, what is being said is that you had no logical reason to believe that it would end up as you expected, the proposition was too vague.

It seems to me, you are asking us to believe, that you didn't believe the leave campaign, you had a much more "project fear" based belief, and voted to leave on that basis?

I take your point on first bit

On leave remain campaigns, at the time it was neither, I honestly thought Leave wouldnt win. I abhor the "to many bloody immigrants" little Britain set that you get branded with, I didn't believe Turkey was about to join the EU, I thought the 350 million on a bus was an electioneering stunt, and I personally did not believe the constant remain scaremongering or dire forecasts.

I'd already read a lot about Europe and it's functioning, but spent a lot of time reading a hell of a lot more of the fors and againsts and what the long term outcome of either would be as much as could be predicted, and I am still convinced today, that by remaining, for all it's benefits there are to many negatives, the biggest is the end result of the EUs USE ambition and what that means in fact. It was not something I wanted to be a part of.
You are right in 2016 you can't see the actual reality in 2019, and I have no idea whether full EU political integration would be in the next 2,5,10,30 years etc. But it will happen and chance to change course would never happen again. It is the most basic natural principle that rules and taxes should be set by our government and fiscal policy for our citizens and economy by our government and central bank.
Australia/NZ do not apologise for being liberal, free trading sovereign economies nor fear they will collapse if they dont hand over law making and fiscal policy to China. Our biggest trading partner is the EU, but our biggest individual nation is USA. If the EU stopped it's USE political union and went back to being a trading block, that would change everything, but it won't. It's s big world out there, the booming parts of the world are not in Europe, has the world's 5th largest economy, 4th largest military power, really lost the vision and confidence to engage with the 90% of the world's economy outside the EU whilst setting our own rules?

 

[cjd]

I respect you're honesty, and I'd agree the vote leave campaign was based on populist slogans and remain on trying to scare everyone to stay with false predictions.

If you would campaign to stay, that's your right.... But the biggest reason I want to leave is the direction of travel of the EU and the treaties we are bound by. Their is so much that is of benefit in being a member, if things were stay as today, I wouldnt mind staying, but they wont.... The sovereignty issue is nearly always branded as rule Britannia, union jack nationalists/monarchists you rightly highlight. But the opposite is true for me personally. It has nothing to do with British symbolism. It is a fallacy to believe the EU or the status quo will remain as we are today, we voted for a common market and we end up with almost political union, we remain and will end up in a USE some day.

For all those who argue that leaving is an uncertain future, so is remaining. Because remaining will not just keep the status quo, the EU cannot function needing 27 or 28 unanimous votes on major issues, and it has no intention to if you read the Lisbon treaty. The EUs mantra of ever closer union means year or year bit by bit sovereignty is transferred from national executives to Brussels and the end objective is nothing short of a United States of Europe. That's not scaremongering, that's fact.
If we remain we board a train whose final destination is that end. What's the problem with that? None for many. I cannot personally stand that the EU is undemocratic and many of the political appointees who set laws that govern us, have actually been kicked out at the Ballot box by their national electorate. Our first past the post is flawed, I personally would hate a Corbyn government, but there is democratic accountability if thats the vote in our democratic system.

All countries joining EU have to join the euro, it is Gordon Browns legacy he stopped Blair from taking us in previously. But that won't and cannot last, it's a treaty obligation that all countries will have to adopt the euro and it will become necessary for the full political union.
Again it has nothing to do with pound Vs euro or what piece of paper is in your wallet. It means we lose control of our finances from the bank of England to the ECB who set Europe wide interest rates. After the 2007/08 crash our economy was one of the worst positioned and yet our ability to cut interest rates and allow quantative easing dug us out of the hole much better and quicker than any eurozone country. Once we have the euro, that is gone and we have no control or nimbleness to adapt to UK inflation or economic crises. Like handing control of your bank account to someone else. People that talk of the dangers of no deal rarely if ever mention the bigger danger of losing control of fiscal policy, which will come down the line unless we leave or the EU implodes.

Thank you for your post and I enjoyed your balanced thoughts on the role of the EU.

I am a 'Remainer' and there is no doubt that I shared some of your concerns, particularly regarding Fiscal Policy and the Euro etc. I simply couldn't countenance all the 27/28 countries all producing the same balance sheets on our economies and the same outlook for growth etc. It would be unacceptable to me.

I am not a world economist or expert on financial policies etc etc. However, what is very clear to me, is that those countries who work hard, have good Government in their own country still thrive against those who don't. As you stated in your post the UK rose from the shambles of the 2007 financial crash better than most.....despite following EU rules. France and Germany ( in the Euro ) are doing fine too....I live here and I do see that....lol.

Given how the various countries in the EU have performed since 2007 I am happy to accept , it will always be down to our own Governments how well or badly we fare overall. I am happy that 'most' of the EU intentions are good ways to move forward to a better and safer society.

The EU is far from perfect and is facing a growing call to slow down. I would rather this than the nonsense that goes on in our Parliament today.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Take the money, don't participate, don't even turn up, and then whine that Britain aren't getting what they want

His agenda / brief does not involve attending those meetings.

 

[Baldseagull]

I respect you're honesty, and I'd agree the vote leave campaign was based on populist slogans and remain on trying to scare everyone to stay with false predictions.

If you would campaign to stay, that's your right.... But the biggest reason I want to leave is the direction of travel of the EU and the treaties we are bound by. Their is so much that is of benefit in being a member, if things were stay as today, I wouldnt mind staying, but they wont.... The sovereignty issue is nearly always branded as rule Britannia, union jack nationalists/monarchists you rightly highlight. But the opposite is true for me personally. It has nothing to do with British symbolism. It is a fallacy to believe the EU or the status quo will remain as we are today, we voted for a common market and we end up with almost political union, we remain and will end up in a USE some day.

For all those who argue that leaving is an uncertain future, so is remaining. Because remaining will not just keep the status quo, the EU cannot function needing 27 or 28 unanimous votes on major issues, and it has no intention to if you read the Lisbon treaty. The EUs mantra of ever closer union means year or year bit by bit sovereignty is transferred from national executives to Brussels and the end objective is nothing short of a United States of Europe. That's not scaremongering, that's fact.
If we remain we board a train whose final destination is that end. What's the problem with that? None for many. I cannot personally stand that the EU is undemocratic and many of the political appointees who set laws that govern us, have actually been kicked out at the Ballot box by their national electorate. Our first past the post is flawed, I personally would hate a Corbyn government, but there is democratic accountability if thats the vote in our democratic system.

All countries joining EU have to join the euro, it is Gordon Browns legacy he stopped Blair from taking us in previously. But that won't and cannot last, it's a treaty obligation that all countries will have to adopt the euro and it will become necessary for the full political union.
Again it has nothing to do with pound Vs euro or what piece of paper is in your wallet. It means we lose control of our finances from the bank of England to the ECB who set Europe wide interest rates. After the 2007/08 crash our economy was one of the worst positioned and yet our ability to cut interest rates and allow quantative easing dug us out of the hole much better and quicker than any eurozone country. Once we have the euro, that is gone and we have no control or nimbleness to adapt to UK inflation or economic crises. Like handing control of your bank account to someone else. People that talk of the dangers of no deal rarely if ever mention the bigger danger of losing control of fiscal policy, which will come down the line unless we leave or the EU implodes.

There was less to fear with regards to how our future in the EU could change.
During Camerons attempts to negotiate more exemptions for UK, it was stated that it was already the case the UK had no obligation to any further political union, and that if we refused to engage in any further treaties, we would not lose any current benefits or status, but that if we voted to remain, this would be explicitly added in the treaties. It was also in UK law that a referendum would be required, and not just an advisory one, to ratify any further treaties or material changes to the existing treaties.
We are exempt from taking the Euro, and we would have to have the house of commons, house of Lords, and the referendum say ok for it to be taken here.
It is true that we may end up closer still, but it would only happen if and when we choose to, or not at all.
By leaving now, it is far more likely that we are using the Euro in 20 years time, because there is a high probability that we will rejoin, and that our new membership would include that commitment to take the euro, though there are ways of avoiding it within the current rules.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I thought 'Border Country: When Ireland Was Divided' was a really good documentary, and well worth watching for a deeper personal understanding how emotive Brexit must be for both sides in Ireland. Available on BBC iPlayer.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Many of these complaints could have been better addressed by the simple expedient of voting for MEP's who actually wanted to debate and be part of the decision making process's rather than automatically oppose or abstain or fail to attend business in the European Parliament.

It always tickles me that Farage is seen as THE man of the people and champion of British Fishermen yet he usually failed to attend Fisheries Committee meetings of which he was a member.

Precisely. Looking back at our history as the EU evolved, we have been notorious for not attending committees, not nominating people to sit on committees, not engaging with the process, then turining up years later, like a drunk turning up at a party after chucking out time at the pub, waving a cigar, wanting to take over the music, and shouting at people. Embarrassing. Now its like we are standing in the doorway shouting 'I'm going home now, what will you do then?'. The rest of the people at the party are thinking 'either shut up or **** off before we call the police'. Meanwhile the whole world is laughing at us.

 

[portlock seagull]

Precisely. Looking back at our history as the EU evolved, we have been notorious for not attending committees, not nominating people to sit on committees, not engaging with the process, then turining up years later, like a drunk turning up at a party after chucking out time at the pub, waving a cigar, wanting to take over the music, and shouting at people. Embarrassing. Now its like we are standing in the doorway shouting 'I'm going home now, what will you do then?'. The rest of the people at the party are thinking 'either shut up or **** off before we call the police'. Meanwhile the whole world is laughing at us.

Wonderful analogy!

 

[portlock seagull]

I thought 'Border Country: When Ireland Was Divided' was a really good documentary, and well worth watching for a deeper personal understanding how emotive Brexit must be for both sides in Ireland. Available on BBC iPlayer.

I’ve been reading and watching a lot of history about the Troubles recently. I guess last nights programme people featured this heavily?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

His agenda / brief does not involve attending those meetings.

If your agenda is to not engage then you are....a fraud who shouldn't be there. Farrage is an old fraud of the worst type. He's happy to collect the salary, though. The disgusting little shit. On a par with the Irish Republican members of the British parliament in that regard? I don't know if Gerry Adams collected his salary. If he did then he and Farrage are solumates in fraud. That said, Sinn Fein MPs do actually deal with constituency matters as they relate to the British Parliament. Farrage doesn't even do the equivalent of that.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I take your point on first bit

On leave remain campaigns, at the time it was neither, I honestly thought Leave wouldnt win. I abhor the "to many bloody immigrants" little Britain set that you get branded with, I didn't believe Turkey was about to join the EU, I thought the 350 million on a bus was an electioneering stunt, and I personally did not believe the constant remain scaremongering or dire forecasts.

I'd already read a lot about Europe and it's functioning, but spent a lot of time reading a hell of a lot more of the fors and againsts and what the long term outcome of either would be as much as could be predicted, and I am still convinced today, that by remaining, for all it's benefits there are to many negatives, the biggest is the end result of the EUs USE ambition and what that means in fact. It was not something I wanted to be a part of.
You are right in 2016 you can't see the actual reality in 2019, and I have no idea whether full EU political integration would be in the next 2,5,10,30 years etc. But it will happen and chance to change course would never happen again. It is the most basic natural principle that rules and taxes should be set by our government and fiscal policy for our citizens and economy by our government and central bank.
Australia/NZ do not apologise for being liberal, free trading sovereign economies nor fear they will collapse if they dont hand over law making and fiscal policy to China. Our biggest trading partner is the EU, but our biggest individual nation is USA. If the EU stopped it's USE political union and went back to being a trading block, that would change everything, but it won't. It's s big world out there, the booming parts of the world are not in Europe, has the world's 5th largest economy, 4th largest military power, really lost the vision and confidence to engage with the 90% of the world's economy outside the EU whilst setting our own rules?

To be fair, if your main reason for voting leave is because you don't like the way you imagine the EU could develop over the next 10,20,30 years (despite the various vetoes, exemptions from further treaties, keeping the ability to maintain our current position etc etc that the last 40 years of British Governments of various political hues have negotiated), then I don't think anything I say will persuade you otherwise

But regardless of our respective views, still can't see anything other than extremely soft Brexit, 2nd Referendum or possibly both

 

[peterward]

A bit late in the day to be asking, but what is your problem with our current Political relationship with the EU?

A lot in the current relationship, but much more to do with the final destination of the EU, once ever closer union is complete!

There is a reason why Macron has so openly called for us to be kicked out/cut loose and it's not anti-britishness, it's french self interest! and why also Merkel so keen to find solutions and Mark Rutte so complimentary of us. If you read a lot on the inner workings of the EU there is a French/German power struggle of sorts in whose economic/societal model prevails as the EUs, much of the EU is based on imho, the failed protectionist french industrial model, like the Common agricultural policy that takes 1/3 of the whole EU budget, it's ludicrous. It locks out competition from poorer countries like many I Africa and pays subsidies to unproductive producers or producers for which their is an over supply to be left to rot.
I read that over 70% of the time in major issue votes that affect the UK national interest we've been on the losing side of the vote? Germany likes us as their single biggest external EU market but more because our liberal, productive economic model is much more like theirs. The major advantage of us being in the EU is not to get our preferred way (as we most often dont,) but to hold a balance of power. Germany with 16% of the EU population the UK with 13% and other smaller similar liberal economies including Holland, Denmark and Sweden combined can make a 35% of EU population minority blocking vote or veto if you will, to stop measures not in our national interest. This is often required against French lead directional initiatives.

The truth is if we ever leave, French power within in the EU will increase, thus why the Dutch and Germans are so vocal in wanting us to stay and French are happy to cut us loose ASAP!

I'm sure we all love Europe, Europeans free movement and no customs charges, are glad countries work in cross border security threats etc, there's nothing to stop that, but do we really need to hand over our legislature and eventually financial control and our central bank into the hands of law makers not one person has ever voted for nor can remove, Whilst shutting British industry off from the rest of the world?

 

[Mellotron]

Nobody voted for a "deal" which is not a deal but an internationally binding treaty.

I voted to leave on WTO terms (which is what is now branded as "no deal") and then to negotiate free trade deals all over the world.

As politely as possible - no you didn't. It was made very clear on the Leave campaign's website that we wouldn't leave without a negotiated deal with the EU.

No Deal/WTO was not an option, no matter how many times you say you voted for it, you didn't, because you couldn't.

 

[peterward]

There was less to fear with regards to how our future in the EU could change.
During Camerons attempts to negotiate more exemptions for UK, it was stated that it was already the case the UK had no obligation to any further political union, and that if we refused to engage in any further treaties, we would not lose any current benefits or status, but that if we voted to remain, this would be explicitly added in the treaties. It was also in UK law that a referendum would be required, and not just an advisory one, to ratify any further treaties or material changes to the existing treaties.
We are exempt from taking the Euro, and we would have to have the house of commons, house of Lords, and the referendum say ok for it to be taken here.
It is true that we may end up closer still, but it would only happen if and when we choose to, or not at all.
By leaving now, it is far more likely that we are using the Euro in 20 years time, because there is a high probability that we will rejoin, and that our new membership would include that commitment to take the euro, though there are ways of avoiding it within the current rules.

Very well articulated reply. You are of course right in the main, but I guess it's a lack of trust in the political process devoid of civilian input at the ballot box that got us where we are today and where we will end up. As the treaties stand today you're right. But will they always? Would a pro remain government deepen or agree to changes that change the current status? Where is the guarantee except by being outside. It's not so bad today, but we're hovering around the point of no return imho.... And treaties are replaced for those bound by the them!

 

[Mellotron]

The long term prospects are hugely beneficial...

Again as politely as possible, what on earth are you on about? There is no concrete evidence for this whatsoever. Pretty much no economist agrees with this.

 

[peterward]

As politely as possible - no you didn't. It was made very clear on the Leave campaign's website that we wouldn't leave without a negotiated deal with the EU.

No Deal/WTO was not an option, no matter how many times you say you voted for it, you didn't, because you couldn't.

I never once looked at "leave campaigns website" wether you mean leaveeu or leavemeansleave etc?

fwiw we already have many negotiated deals with the EU on aviation, transport, procurement. No deal is many mini deals and they have been negotiated. I take your point though article 50 does state that the withdrawal agreemebt, which is actually divorce terms but branded as "the deal" and the outline future partnership is part of A50