[Politics] Brexit

[5ways]

I have no idea what percentage of EU migrants are lower earners but suspect it is most of those in the agricultural sector, catering and retail. To pretend that some bloke on minimum wages or more likely zero hours contract is paying down the national debt is ludicrous. They'll be paying little or no tax and NI.

 EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to
claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education
compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London,
compared with only 11% of the UK-born.


Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn
due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and
this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also
might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to
settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for
the UK-born.

EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public
services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative
effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing


AND


Long-term fiscal impacts of immigration

In 2013 the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) examined how the long-term fiscal sustainability of the UK might change over a 50-year period, depending on the level of migration to the country and expecting the same fertility rate for migrants and the UK born population.

Unlike the studies discussed above, the long-term estimates look at the fiscal impacts of at anticipated future migration flows, rather than migrants who are already in the country; they also implicitly account for the impacts of migrants' children once they enter the workforce. The OBR found that:

Higher net migration would reduce pressure on government debt over a 50-year period. Based on OBR projections, the high net-migration variant.
This result was driven by the fact that incoming migrants are more likely to be of working age than the population in general. The OBR noted that over an even longer time horizon than 50 years, these migrants would also retire and add to age-related spending pressures.
It concluded that "higher migration could be seen as delaying some of the fiscal challenges of an ageing population rather than a way of resolving them permanently".


http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

https://fullfact.org/immigration/how-immigrants-affect-public-finances/

Osborne's whole strategy revolves around a growing economy to pay down the deficit. His positive economic forecasts for 2030 inside the EU depend on the number of EU migrants actually growing not shrinking.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Don't forget to take your XT1032 and tell us all about it on Tapatalk

Don't worry I'll give you some peace and quite for a few days, the last thing you wunna do at a festival is come on NSC and bring your mood down init[emoji106]

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Bold Seagull]

The really big question as we approach Thursday, is who is going to finish top referendum poster?

5ways leads the way for Remain, but the next 5 places are Leavers with over 1600 posts between them. Two Professors is making a late charge with his no space after punctuation. It is all to play for!

 

[Two Professors]

Just been down to my local medical centre,but didn't see any EU staff there,just Indians,Pakistanis,and a Sri Lankan nurse.Oh,wait-there was an English nurse there,so I suppose she counts as EU.Wonder where all these EU health workers are then?

 

[Bold Seagull]

Just been down to my local medical centre,but didn't see any EU staff there,just Indians,Pakistanis,and a Sri Lankan nurse.Oh,wait-there was an English nurse there,so I suppose she counts as EU.Wonder where all these EU health workers are then?

Your entire knowledge of the NHS is built upon your visit to your health centre!

 

[Two Professors]

The really big question as we approach Thursday, is who is going to finish top referendum poster?

5ways leads the way for Remain, but the next 5 places are Leavers with over 1600 posts between them. Two Professors is making a late charge with his no space after punctuation. It is all to play for!

View attachment 75928

No space after punctuation is better than loads of space between the ears.Are you an economist-you seem to have plenty of time on your hands?

 

[Two Professors]

Your entire knowledge of the NHS is built upon your visit to your health centre!

Very amusing,who helped you with that,your mother?Still doesn't answer the question of where all these 100's of thousands of EU health workers are,does it?

 

[Bold Seagull]

Very amusing,who helped you with that,your mother?Still doesn't answer the question of where all these 100's of thousands of EU health workers are,does it?

No it doesn't, I'll pop down my surgery at lunchtime and do a quick headcount, might expand our statistics a bit.

 

[Steve in Japan]

 EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to
claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education
compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London,
compared with only 11% of the UK-born.


Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn
due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and
this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also
might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to
settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for
the UK-born.

EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public
services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative
effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing


AND


Long-term fiscal impacts of immigration

In 2013 the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) examined how the long-term fiscal sustainability of the UK might change over a 50-year period, depending on the level of migration to the country and expecting the same fertility rate for migrants and the UK born population.

Unlike the studies discussed above, the long-term estimates look at the fiscal impacts of at anticipated future migration flows, rather than migrants who are already in the country; they also implicitly account for the impacts of migrants' children once they enter the workforce. The OBR found that:

Higher net migration would reduce pressure on government debt over a 50-year period. Based on OBR projections, the high net-migration variant.
This result was driven by the fact that incoming migrants are more likely to be of working age than the population in general. The OBR noted that over an even longer time horizon than 50 years, these migrants would also retire and add to age-related spending pressures.
It concluded that "higher migration could be seen as delaying some of the fiscal challenges of an ageing population rather than a way of resolving them permanently".


http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

https://fullfact.org/immigration/how-immigrants-affect-public-finances/

Osborne's whole strategy revolves around a growing economy to pay down the deficit. His positive economic forecasts for 2030 inside the EU depend on the number of EU migrants actually growing not shrinking.

Yup I have seen that report and whilst I am not equipped to critique it, I stand by my point - anybody on minimum wages/zero hours cannot be contributing much. The tax and NI rates are public information. It doesn't add up.

 

[5ways]

Yup I have seen that report and whilst I am not equipped to critique it, I stand by my point - anybody on minimum wages/zero hours cannot be contributing much. The tax and NI rates are public information. It doesn't add up.

Keep in mind it is also smaller effects. Consumer spending, shops and bars. More people creates more work and that creates more jobs. Imagine if you took all the Europeans out of Brighton. All the small buys add up for the tax man in terms of VAT.

 

[Two Professors]

No it doesn't, I'll pop down my surgery at lunchtime and do a quick headcount, might expand our statistics a bit.

Every little helps .Perhaps some of the posters who promoted these figures could contribute after work,as well.Probably not though-they will just say it's a 'fact',somebody else said it as well.

 

[MattBackHome]

No it doesn't, I'll pop down my surgery at lunchtime and do a quick headcount, might expand our statistics a bit.

I would happily do mine as well, but don't want to skew the official statistics by double counting surgeries. Plus once you've got yours done we've probably covered enough to be statistically significant?

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Very amusing,who helped you with that,your mother?Still doesn't answer the question of where all these 100's of thousands of EU health workers are,does it?

Well the figure was 50,000 to start with (you can always rely on the Leave side to throw around exaggerated figures). Your 'survey' really does show you up as desperate. What a ridiculous thing to bother posting.

 

[5ways]

Don't you think they would do better to work in their own country-I'm sure the bar owners would find no shortage of staff if they paid the going rate,instead of slave wages!

Great point. We reap the benefits of young people who have been raised and educated for free in their home country. A young woman finishes her PhD in Turin but wants better job prospects in her field - so she comes to England. The massive outlay on her education by the Italian government translates into British taxes. It is an incredible advantage we have drawing talent from across the continent.

 

[BigGully]

Care to expand? We want to sell more to them than we currently do so doesn't that put them in box seat when it comes to negotiations on trade? Wasn't it the same when Switzerland agreed their deal which, by some reports, was them basically accepting whatever terms China chose to impose.

According to this site, we have a trade deficit of $34b with China. Doesn't that suit them far more than it does us?

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/

I actually thought you were talking about Germany, however the same dynamic exists.

If we are a considerable net importer of non essential stuff from any of our trading partners then we are in a strong position to find a favourable trade deal with those countries, the same is for those we currently do not have considerable trade with, we are a relatively rich and a large economic country, people would like access to our market whilst we too can punch a decent weight in trying to access other markets.

Just turning up at a negotiating table with Germany, France and 20+ odd other failing economic EU member states is unlikely to offer a better outcome, too many vested interests and too many countries with too many priorities not reflecting our own.

 

[Steve in Japan]

Keep in mind it is also smaller effects. Consumer spending, shops and bars. More people creates more work and that creates more jobs. Imagine if you took all the Europeans out of Brighton. All the small buys add up for the tax man in terms of VAT.

So it's small contributions individually, but as long as you have enough contributors it becomes a big number. Hmm. I am struggling with this still as an economic proposition.

Firstly because unlimited immigration brings other problems - "hard" problems like school places, "soft" problems like social cohesion
Secondly because I still can't see how a bloke on minimum wage, say with a couple of kids who go to school, can possibly be a net contributor.

 

[kevo]

So it's small contributions individually, but as long as you have enough contributors it becomes a big number. Hmm. I am struggling with this still as an economic proposition.

Firstly because unlimited immigration brings other problems - "hard" problems like school places, "soft" problems like social cohesion
Secondly because I still can't see how a bloke on minimum wage, say with a couple of kids who go to school, can possibly be a net contributor.

Weren;t there some figures recently that showed immigrants are net contributers?

This is a good neutral piece on the effects of EU immigration on the labour market:

https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-jobs-labour-market-effects-immigration/

 

[Albumen]

Sorry if it's already been posted but well done unselfish grandad, and before you start I'm not saying all grandads not voting for their grandsons are selfish.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03yj20n?ocid=socialflow_facebook&

 

[Albumen]

The really big question as we approach Thursday, is who is going to finish top referendum poster?

5ways leads the way for Remain, but the next 5 places are Leavers with over 1600 posts between them. Two Professors is making a late charge with his no space after punctuation. It is all to play for!

View attachment 75928

69 dude!

EDIT: damnit

 

[5ways]

So it's small contributions individually, but as long as you have enough contributors it becomes a big number. Hmm. I am struggling with this still as an economic proposition.

Firstly because unlimited immigration brings other problems - "hard" problems like school places, "soft" problems like social cohesion
Secondly because I still can't see how a bloke on minimum wage, say with a couple of kids who go to school, can possibly be a net contributor.

Me neither, but most EU migrants don't have kids in school. And most EU migrants are better educated than their UK counterparts and often have higher paying jobs.