[Politics] Brexit

[Two Professors]

It’s so foreign isn’t

Don't know about that,but black gloves on a white arm shows up really well to officials if the arm is raised-unnecessary risk as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Two Professors]

As I say old boy, you and I are polar opposites on Brexit, so we might as well not bother going there, but we've always been polite/civil to each other on this thread despite that, as far as I can remember.

(You're ex forces, I'm from Hastings - I could destroy you through alcohol consumption like nothing in HM Armed Forces ever did for you though - )

Well past getting slaughtered nowadays.I'm a real lightweight,even drink local beers on holiday,as they're usually weaker!Tropical lager is virtually non-alcoholic,or seems like it.Think they recycle it from the bogs!

 

[ManOfSussex]

There you go - me and TP - It's a Brexit thread armistice.

 

[larus]

When was Article 50 going to be invoked for all the wicked, bad, horrid things to happen above though larus, sweetiepops? Was it June 24th 2016 as that nice, old Etonion David Cameron said, or was it on March 29th 2017?

Oh dear petal. I guess the fact that these were predictions based on if the plebs dared to VOTE leave, not when we left is a bit too complicated for you.

Never mind. Facts don’t sit well with remainers eh!

 

[larus]

Yeah, I'm guessing as we haven't had the pudding yet the proof is not there. Any stats, good or bad, are pretty irrelevant at the moment. Although the housing market has stagnated and economic growth is slowing. But again, that may not be a pointer.

Sorry to be pedantic, but these Remaoner predictions from the establishment were if we VOTED to leave, not when we left. I’ll give you a little clue - we voted to leave in June 2016 and still not one of these predictions has come true.

No doubt these experts will be right next time. Or the time after that. Well, maybe sometime they will.

After all, they were right about the impact of not joining the Euro and the loss of industry/city of London weren’t they? Oh, you mean they were wrong then too! Well, who’d a thunk that!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Love the 3 POINTZZ today.

Love them a lot.

I guess some tools will argue ?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Oh dear petal. I guess the fact that these were predictions based on if the plebs dared to VOTE leave, not when we left is a bit too complicated for you.

Never mind. Facts don’t sit well with remainers eh!

No, your mate Cameron the Tory - the one you're in awe of - made it all.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Nigel is a winker,
He wears his winker's hat,
And when he saw the Kremlin cash,
He said "I'm having that"...


https://twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1101910252390367233?s=19

 

[Stat Brother]

Sorry to be pedantic, but these Remaoner predictions from the establishment were if we VOTED to leave, not when we left. I’ll give you a little clue - we voted to leave in June 2016 and still not one of these predictions has come true.

No doubt these experts will be right next time. Or the time after that. Well, maybe sometime they will.

After all, they were right about the impact of not joining the Euro and the loss of industry/city of London weren’t they? Oh, you mean they were wrong then too! Well, who’d a thunk that!

I genuinely hope you're right or at least right enough.
I certainly would love to be wrong as my predictions for the future are pretty grim.

To me last week seemed to be a little too 'action packed'! and I was finding it hard to see any positives in the news we were receiving.
Has anything, big or small, that's come to light given you any concerns?

 

[Stat Brother]

[tweet]1101755943778422785[/tweet]

 

[Stat Brother]

This doesn't sound much like the UK taking back control.
It sounds more like handing that control to someone else:-

[tweet]1101615225827024896[/tweet]

 

[Lincoln Imp]

This doesn't sound much like the UK taking back control.
It sounds more like handing that control to someone else:-

[tweet]1101615225827024896[/tweet]

This seems of little interest to Brexiteers. Whilst the US negotiating guidelines are just that, they suggest a grimly difficult process, running as it will alongside the negotiations with the EU and the countries with whom we will be tearing up existing trade agreements with. While all that is happening our efforts to get agreement for independent tariff schedules at the WTO are being held up by 19 countries, including Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

But back to the US guidelines. They want access to our government procurement markets whilst ruling out access to theirs, they want input into British economic policy regarding exchange rates, they want to drive a coach and horses through our animal welfare policies and they want a veto over our ability to sign a trade deal with China. It's a tough place for a country in the UK's position to start negotiations.

The Brexiteers' view of how sovereignty works in a global economy is frighteningly childish.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1102336505119473664[/tweet]

Pathetic.

 

[Baldseagull]

[tweet]1102336505119473664[/tweet]

Pathetic.

Perhaps she has had to stretch it out as Grayling has spunked so much away this year?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Good to see the Magic Money Tree is alive and well and still being used for Tory bungs

 

[beorhthelm]

Good to see the Magic Money Tree is alive and well and still being used for Tory bungs

you will note though that its not enough. it never is.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

25 days until we hit the *no deal* iceberg.

Followed by a short period of creaks in the silence before the economy's back breaks.


Now it's time for MPs to vote for the deal.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Apparently we just need to "Get Outlook for IOS".

All sorted then.


https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1102553866837606400?s=19

 

[ManOfSussex]

25 days until we hit the *no deal* iceberg.

Followed by a short period of creaks in the silence before the economy's back breaks.


Now it's time for MPs to vote for the deal.

I had a read of the Honorable Member for Bexhill and Battle's newsletter at the the weekend, as I saw he abstained on the vote last week - https://mailchi.mp/4ea65c4b7214/october-newsletter-1781185

As I hope you would expect with votes of this importance, I will be assessing these options but my initial views are as follows and these are consistent with what I have said and written previously:

I support the Prime Minister’s deal and will vote for it again – it is not perfect but it sees us leaving the EU, on agreed terms and on time. Business and the public need certainty.
The choice between the potential economic damage of No Deal and the potential democratic damage of No Brexit are incredibly difficult for me to weigh up. This is the decision which requires the most focus for me. It is an invidious choice.
I cannot see the rationale for any further delay to Article 50. All negotiations need our best cards to be played and a cut-off time when they will be played. Any delay will just kick the can down the road and lead to further uncertainty. I will of course look at the scenario but delay goes against my instincts as a former negotiator. The Prime Minister reiterated that she does not support an extension.

I wonder if he would go full on Andrea Jenkyns and actually vote for no deal if it were to happen? He's spreadsheet Phil's PPS too saying that.

I don't think he'll be popping over to Hastings and helping Amber Rudd at the next election like he did in 2017 either. She might not even get a Christmas card from the Merriman's anymore.

I am very disappointed that certain Ministers have been causing difficulties. If they cannot accept the Prime Minister’s mandate then they should argue their cause from the back-benches, not as Ministers via the Daily Mail.

 

[ManOfSussex]

A good piece by Clare Foges in The Times of London today on how of all the accusations of betrayal that will come post Brexit, immigration not falling will be one.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/leavers-immigration-hopes-will-be-betrayed-ps29sjrc6

In the years to come we also face another mighty wave of betrayed anger: the rage of Leave voters who thought Brexit would cut immigration. Some who campaigned for Leave would rather that the referendum was all about sovereignty (which they consider a high-flown and principled reason) rather than immigration (which they think base and a little racist). Consider Boris Johnson’s recent rather weaselly remarks that he “didn’t say anything about Turkey during the referendum”, despite his multiple mentions of possible Turkish accession to the EU, the letter he wrote to David Cameron in June 2016 saying that “the only way to avoid having common borders with Turkey is to vote leave”, the poster run by his campaign stating that “Turkey (76 million people) is joining the EU”.

Johnson — and Vote Leave — knew full well that voters’ frustration over high levels of immigration was political dynamite. Year after year, when people were asked about the most important issues facing the country, immigration came at or near the top of the list, while Europe barely registered. They were not talking about the perils of “ever-closer union” in the Dog and Duck. The overwhelming public anxiety was about immigration. So when voters were told they could “take back control”, they foresaw a significant fall in numbers.

This is why public opinion on immigration has softened so dramatically since the vote. In June 2016 YouGov found that 56 per cent of people named “immigration and asylum” as one of the top issues facing the country. By last month the figure had tumbled to 27 per cent. What happened? Have all those concerns about mass immigration and its impact on housing and infrastructure just melted away? No. Concern about immigration has softened because people believe Brexit will cut immigration significantly. They trust that the issue is in hand, that numbers are bound to fall.

But figures released last week gave us a clear indication that overall numbers will not fall. While net immigration from the EU has dropped to its lowest level in a decade, net migration from outside the bloc is at its highest since 2004, with 261,000 more non-EU citizens arriving than leaving in the year to September 2018. The Poles and Romanians are simply being replaced by migrants from outside Europe.

Register the significance of this. Non-EU migration is the part that the government has always been able to control. No need to “take back control” of our borders here, we already have it. And yet successive governments have been unwilling or unable to bring the numbers down. Indeed, it seems likely that the non-EU figure will climb farther after Brexit, with visas to the UK used as sweeteners to secure free trade deals. This is not to mention the pressure from business to maintain the flow of low-skilled workers into the UK, wherever they may come from.

I missed Johnson saying that about Turkey. Apparently the lying Old Etonian said it in January.