[Politics] Brexit

[ManOfSussex]

But my point is why do they say that the economic hit on an independent Scotland is bad but an economic hit on UK is a perfectly acceptable price for an independence. I don't see why there should be such a dissonance here.

I totally agree with you. It's a very hypocritical, not to mention condescending stance to take based on two outcomes, purely because one they happen to support, one they don't.

 

[beorhthelm]

But my point is why do they say that the economic hit on an independent Scotland is bad but an economic hit on UK is a perfectly acceptable price for an independence. I don't see why there should be such a dissonance here.

its about magnitude and the basic economy. park Brexit outcomes a moment as thats largly trade related, an independent Scotland would lose the favourable tax adjustment from the Barnett Formula, receiving 15% more spending than in England. oil isnt going to cover it, they would need either substantial tax rises or spending cuts, opposite to the promise of SNP. if their proposal was to restructure taxation and state spending, they'd probably be OK. but then theres the tricky issue of no control of interest rates and no bank of last resort, not very independent and impacting their strong finance sector. and the nail in the coffin, ambiguity (being kind) of EU membership with even the EU saying they'd have to go though the process to apply for membership, wait to meet all the criteria. so all the pain of Brexit trade wise, and internal structure of economic base floored.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I totally agree with you. It's a very hypocritical, not to mention condescending stance to take based on two outcomes, purely because one they happen to support, one they don't.

At least one of them thinks that Scotland will be less independent as a member of the EU than in its present guise as a component of the UK. Perhaps that's it. (To put the daftness of this into context, it is worth mentioning here that our own component, England, survives with no head of state, parliament, armed forces or national anthem.)

 

[ManOfSussex]

its about magnitude and the basic economy. park Brexit outcomes a moment as thats largly trade related, an independent Scotland would lose the favourable tax adjustment from the Barnett Formula, receiving 15% more spending than in England. oil isnt going to cover it, they would need either substantial tax rises or spending cuts, opposite to the promise of SNP. if their proposal was to restructure taxation and state spending, they'd probably be OK. but then theres the tricky issue of no control of interest rates and no bank of last resort, not very independent and impacting their strong finance sector. and the nail in the coffin, ambiguity (being kind) of EU membership with even the EU saying they'd have to go though the process to apply for membership, wait to meet all the criteria. so all the pain of Brexit trade wise, and internal structure of economic base floored.

But they'll be free of people in English accents, normally English Tories too, saying things like that to them, telling them how well they're looked after by them and how they know best for them - For those who truly believe in Scottish independence, it's a purely emotive desire, not an economic one. Nationalism ultimately always is.

All things considered, I don't suppose if Mel Gibson had made a Hollywood film with him starring as Lord Barnett it would have had quite the same impact as Braveheart did either.

 

[cunning fergus]

Re your final para can I just ask you to confirm that you think that Scotland, as a constituent part of the United Kingdom, currently has more freedom and independence than does a sovereign nation (such as, say, the UK) within the European Union? I've read something similar on this thread once before, possibly by Two Prof.

The comment concerns Scotland joining the euro, and I would certainly argue that the consequences of joining the euro would mean less independence than they have now.

I don’t think that is splitting hairs either, and certainly not in terms of what the final destination would look like for countries in the eurozone.

The argument from the SNP that a centuries old desire Scottish independence would be delivered via a new state federalised in the EU is absurd, and that is ultimately why I don’t think it will happen.

It’s exactly the same point for the U.K. too, if we have a second referendum it should be a simple choice, all in or all out.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

i had the impression it is, generally considered the Euro is a political conception with too many disparate economies combined, without enough fiscal control. this leads to a range of views from its fundmentally bad, to good but needs more central authority and tax raising/spending to work.

Fair point. There are many misgivings about the euro and of course who am I to speak on behalf of Economists; I'm not even a member of the species. What I meant was that Stiglitz's reforms of the euro have drawn criticisms from others of the breed. And, more importantly, that Stiglitz's relative optimism for the UK's future outside of the EU is not widely shared by others of his profession. The ERG's position, for example, is drawn from very much the margins and not the mainstream: the projections of the Treasury's team on the impact on economic growth of leaving is much more reflective of the consensus. And you only need to look a stone's throw from the Amex to the experts at Sussex Uni's International Trade think-tank for confirmation...…………………(or simply take a look at this link).

https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/

 

[cunning fergus]

The one problem I foresee with a referendum on Scottish independence is that referendums are open to abuse. We've seen it here where people voted for or against leaving the EU without enough of the facts to hand, but of course once the vote is done, none of that matters because to reverse it or hold another referendum is seen to be undemocratic.

But moving on from that, and onto Scottish currency in particular, I just don't see why you consider the currency issue a problem. There are several options and one must surely be a good fit for them:
* retain Sterling, ideally in a currency union
* retain Sterling anyway, even if the UK reject a currency union
* independently peg their own new currency to Sterling
* join the Euro

I don't think the last option is a very good one in the long run because their economy is structured much like ours and not like European countries - it is built on house borrowing (which is why I think the Euro will one day prove very bad for Ireland).


And maybe they could just leave economic decisions like what currency to adopt to a largely ill-informed electorate? If their politicians are as crap as the Tories, they won't give a toss what damage they do as long as they moronically plough on with the winning solution.

Of course but then politics is open to abuse........otherwise why would the people of St Helens years ago had Shaun Woodward foisted on them as their MP? Politics is dirty, always has been.

Before the indyref the SNP changed their stance on currency supporting a currency union with rUK. This decision was a change in tack based on polling they carried out which demonstrated that less that 10% wanted the euro and overwhelmingly keep sterling or a variant of it.

Creating a currency is hugely expensive, it would also expose the weak economic position Scotland was in, remember, on the back of the 2008 crisis they had a share of the debts as well as the assets. So, sharing a currency union with U.K. was the least worse option.

However it’s the worst argument for independence, ie leave the U.K. but let rUK keep control of all the fiscal levers like setting interest rates. As an electorate the Scots saw through that, and nothing has essentially changed.

If the Scots want independence so badly they accept that position, good luck to them, but I don’t think they would, they didn’t before.

 

[cunning fergus]

I have absolutely no problem with Scottish independence or a united Ireland.

From what I've read, since 2014 there are actually a number of currency options fo Scotland that have been explored/evaluated, some of which look viable. Going all in with the Euro is not the only one.

There will always be an issue regarding the pro/cons of EU as there is in all member states, however as has been said many many times in this thread, this issue would not of needed to be addressed with this brexit bllx if issues around disenfranchisement had been addressed as well as the disconnect between government/politics and people.

Me neither, however the political disconnect you refer too is fed by ALL politicians, and BREXIT is a consequence of that.

I’m not aware of many different options beyond 3 credible options, their own, sterling or euro.

In some respects, they only have one if they join the EU, hence my point that independence from the U.K. on that basis would mean a future federalised into the EU.

On that basis the Scots won’t buy it, on recent polling even within the SNP 40% of member’s don’t want to join the EU.

 

[cunning fergus]

To some people it may be seen like that Fergie, but the emotive issue of independence from what is ultimately seen as English subjugation by many will far outweigh the economic or technical arguments for a lot of people, whatever is argued for or against and whatever the economic cost may be. If there is one, then to borrow a phrase from a fellow Brexiteer of yours - it's a price worth paying.

In the case of Scotland, whatever the informed arguments are, whatever the cost is, whatever the currency is and whatever the actual question is on the IndyRef2 ballot paper, it will ultimately just boil down to this for many:

Do you hate the English enough to want Scotland to become an independent country?/Dae ye hate th' sassenach enough tae waant scootlund tae become an braveheart land?

Yes/Aye
No/Na

As much as it'll genuinely sadden me, I can't blame them at all if they do decide to go it alone after what's happened to The UK in the last few years. It should take care of Trident renewal as well if they do with Faslane and Coulport being in Scotland. That'll save some money and complete our fall from grace as a country quite spectacularly as we lose our nuclear deterrent too. Lets fund our NHS instead perhaps with the savings?

The romantic notion of Scottish independence was dealt a blow in last indyref, the SNP in the aftermath did a mea culpa on overvaluing oil reserves by 6 times (something of that measure).

The economic reality is a problem, and so is an argument that Scotland will join the EU, as on current rules they join the euro. This is deeply unpopular in Scotland .

I have no doubt there will be hard bitten independence supporting Scots this say independence at any price, but they won’t swing it.

It’s why with all of the immigration that the U.K. has experienced in recent years all but a trickle has gone north of the border. No one cares, but that is not for me decide, the Scots rejected it once, a second go on joining the EU IMO would be an even bigger loss.

 

[nicko31]

But my point is why do they say that the economic hit on an independent Scotland is bad but an economic hit on UK is a perfectly acceptable price for an independence. I don't see why there should be such a dissonance here.

The last few posts on here from Brexiteers have been hilarious, weapons grade hypocrisy.

Yet when it comes to Brexit, still not one example yet of any upside in International trade has been provided versus the UK's current "Germany plus" arrangement.

All I've had back is, "don't care"......"not interested"....

Strange times

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The last few posts on here from Brexiteers have been hilarious, weapons grade hypocrisy.

Yet when it comes to Brexit, still not one example yet of any upside in International trade has been provided versus the UK's current "Germany plus" arrangement.

All I've had back is, "don't care"......"not interested"....

Strange times

Germany+ sounds pretty good although I prefer Norway+ or Switzerland+.

The worst option is *no deal*, which is another way of saying Venezuela-.

 

[nicko31]

Germany+ sounds pretty good although I prefer Norway+ or Switzerland+.

The worst option is *no deal*, which is another way of saying Venezuela-.

Germany + seems like an option

Have access to the large trade network on the planet spanning 98 countries
Have control of our borders and not be in Scheghen (as would the Irish Republic)
Stay out of the Euro currency
Send people home from other EU countries if they can't support themselves
Veto on other countries like Turkey joining the EU
Veto the European army too
Have a court to make sure British people and businesses are fairly treated

Could work...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

One of my favourite Twitter accounts is taking previous tweets and statements from politicians from every party, hiring billboards and reminding their constituents of how they have backpeddled or even lied.

[tweet]1095940170468200449[/tweet]




This one was put up in Islington, just around the corner from Jeremy Corbyn. Islington council (Labour) had it removed.

[tweet]1095690104058847234[/tweet]

[tweet]1095742338352205827[/tweet]

 

[nicko31]

One of my favourite Twitter accounts is taking previous tweets and statements from politicians from every party, hiring billboards and reminding their constituents of how they have backpeddled or even lied.

[tweet]1095940170468200449[/tweet]




This one was put up in Islington, just around the corner from Jeremy Corbyn. Islington council (Labour) had it removed.

[tweet]1095690104058847234[/tweet]

[tweet]1095742338352205827[/tweet]

Funded by ordinary folk worried about our kids future

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/by-donkeys

 

[nicko31]

[tweet]1095693611612733440[/tweet]

Its great to see old British Engineering companies selling around the world, Westfield are well and truly leading the way in autonomous vehicles

What's more they not hindered at all by our current favourable trading arrangements within the EU.

#takenodealoffthetable

 

[WATFORD zero]

It’s exactly the same point for the U.K. too, if we have a second referendum it should be a simple choice, all in or all out.

So you want either 'no deal', or Euro, Schengen and no vetoes.

Obviously you've considered this at length to make sure we get the perfect deal for Britain and the British people and not just taken some simple idealistic view. You really think that those two options look so much better than the deal we have spent the last 40 years negotiating ?

The romantic notion of Scottish independence was dealt a blow in last indyref, the SNP in the aftermath did a mea culpa on overvaluing oil reserves by 6 times (something of that measure).

The economic reality is a problem, and so is an argument that Scotland will join the EU, as on current rules they join the euro. This is deeply unpopular in Scotland .

I have no doubt there will be hard bitten independence supporting Scots this say independence at any price, but they won’t swing it.

It’s why with all of the immigration that the U.K. has experienced in recent years all but a trickle has gone north of the border. No one cares, but that is not for me decide, the Scots rejected it once, a second go on joining the EU IMO would be an even bigger loss.

I can't imagine such people existing

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Check out the Netherlands big blue Brexit Muppet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47237371

 

[ManOfSussex]

Check out the Netherlands big blue Brexit Muppet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47237371

That is Brexit summed up perfectly.



https://www.brexitloket.nl/

 

[Driver8]

Check out the Netherlands big blue Brexit Muppet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47237371

I think he posts on here.

 

[Trufflehound]

That is Brexit summed up perfectly.

View attachment 104621

https://www.brexitloket.nl/

The Dutch government is clearly taking Brexit seriously, which is far more than the UK government is currently doing...