[Politics] Brexit

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1095730632259440646[/tweet]

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I suspect the Brexiteers will say something like "stop whining and believe, tick tock, on our way, just believe in Britain and May our Bexit queen"

- Production at the Ford Aquitaine Industries plant in Bordeaux, France, which manufactures small automatic transmissions, will end in August 2019.

- Formal discussions have begun between Ford and its Works Council to end production of the C-MAX and Grand C-MAX at the Saarlouis Body and Assembly Plant in Germany.

- Ford is undertaking a strategic review of Ford Sollers, its joint venture in Russia. Several significant restructuring options for Ford Sollers are being considered by Ford and its partner, Sollers PJSC. A decision is expected in the second quarter.

- Ford plans to consolidate its UK headquarters and Ford Credit Europe’s headquarters at the Ford Dunton Technical Center in South East Essex. The action is subject to union consultation and local approvals.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

[tweet]1095693611612733440[/tweet]

 

[JC Footy Genius]

For starters the subprime crisis and it's effect on certain economies. We recorded an all time low in 2009, which will skew any averages that include the last ten years.

Well that may account for the poor growth discrepancy with some countries but many countries outside the EU were also severely effected by the subprime market crisis not least the US. The US recovered at a far quicker rate see wages, unemployment, growth.

Two distinct reasons for this IMHO.

1. The EU is (almost entirely) formed of established economies (bar a few in the former Soviet bloc), and established economies, by definition, do not grow quickly because they're already big. By contrast, most other trading blocs included a lot of less developed countries, the former TPP containing a number of economies in south east Asia which have experienced phenomenal growth in recent years as they are starting from a lower base, meaning the average growth across the bloc would be higher as a result. Meanwhile many of the real basket-case economies of Europe are currently unable to join the EU (despite many of them wanting to) because of threats from Moscow should they choose to do so.

2. The global financial crisis of 2008 disproportionately impacted the countries in the western hemisphere, especially ones which rely heavily on a services industry such as the UK, France, Germany, the US and the Benelux countries rather than raw materials. As the major financial centres of the EU this had a net negative effect on the performance of the entire bloc when you take into account the average of all the relevant members, whereas a nation such as China or Brazil did well out of it as companies sought safer havens and those where land value and housing were less expensive became more attractive.

Once again your reasons may account for some of the differences but other western hemisphere economies (eg US, Canada) that were severly hit by the crisis, outperformed the EU.

This is a very reasonable question. I won't in any way dispute the figures; neither will I claim my response couldn't be improved by those who are better informed. So let's agree that the EU growth rates are poor/disappointing/sub-optimal. Why?

Firstly the EU is not blessed with the natural resources of say Canada and Australia.

There is an ageing population.

The level of social protection is higher than in most other nations. Some would argue that this puts a brake on economic growth.

The EU economies are 'mature' - countries starting from a low base will have natural 'catch-up' propensity in a globalised economy.

The EU was disproportionately impacted by the global financial crisis.

Fundamentally what matters is whether the collection of countries (economies) in the EU would have fared better out of it in that time period. And even more specifically whether the UK will do so in the future. You (we) need to remember that trade deals with faster growing non-EU countries have been negotiated by and through the EU. So in many ways the choice being offered to the British people of EU v the fast growing world economy is a false one.


Finally, it could be argued that one of the things that has held up economic growth in the EU has been the lack of full(er) integration...……….as unpalatable as that might seem to many.


But your post did raise the debate higher than the contribution on the fertility (or lack thereof) of our Prime Minister and the extent of French girls' body odour so thanks for that.

And thanks for providing a more comprehensive list and at least hinting at the large grey thing casting it's shadow over the EU's economy but I am still astonished when talking about the poor economic performance of the EU none of you specifically mentioned that huge Elephant sitting in the middle of the room ....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro

 

[ManOfSussex]

It's a strange argument from a Brexiteer. Pretty much every one I've seen says that attaining independence was worth an economic hit (that was certainly my view when I voted, what I didn't expect was the complete botch job that the government made of negotiations), so I'm not sure why different criteria should apply to Scotland.

If you're pro-Brexit, then you really should be pro-Scottish independence - there's little difference

I think it depends on your political persuasion though. The genuine left wing/socialist Brexiteer/eurosceptic, such as Yanis Varoufakis, the Socialist Labour Party etc, is pro-Scottish independence, whereas the classic English/Tory/small regulation/Singaporean model/financier Brexiteer, like Fergus and Jacob Rees-Mogg etc focuses on the minutiae of currency use and the economic hit on Scotland, as they're ultimately Conservative and Unionists at heart and despite being Brexiteers they don't want to see the break up of the Union.

 

[Bold Seagull]

And thanks for providing a more comprehensive list and at least hinting at the large grey thing casting it's shadow over the EU's economy but I am still astonished when talking about the poor economic performance of the EU none of you specifically mentioned that huge Elephant sitting in the middle of the room ....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro

Interestingly, Stiglitz is essentially pro-EU. You should read the book. He offers a stark critique of the Euro, but also reform solutions as in his words 'the european project is too important to abandon'. I think you can pick it up used for about £5 on Amazon. Given he's also an advisor to Corbyn and a bit of a socialist, well worth a read for you I would say.

 

[A1X]

Once again your reasons may account for some of the differences but other western hemisphere economies (eg US, Canada) that were severly hit by the crisis, outperformed the EU.

Hence the point about services compared to products. The US can (and does) manufacture it's way out of basically every financial crisis. Canada has a wealth of raw materials to shift, mostly to it's neighbour.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Labour MP for Bermondsey

[tweet]1095661493822078976[/tweet]

 

[A1X]

[tweet]1095693611612733440[/tweet]

Well we're losing £17bn of trade but hey, we made £30m back! That's a full 0.18%!

We're in the money...

 

[Dave the OAP]

As a no deal gets ever more likely..work starts on upgrading the channel tunnel

 

[Baldseagull]

Only if you provide facts,not speculation.Real facts,not Twitter facts,Buzzfeed facts,Huffington facts,NSC facts,Watford facts,REAL facts.

You couldn't spot a fact if Bryan Robson walked up to you in your local boozer, flanked by ex Waffen SS, and spat one into your pint.

 

[Baldseagull]

Perhaps the #teameu crew that often go on about the importance of being in the 'worlds largest trade block' with all those wonderful trade deals could explain why over the last decade being in the EU has produced an average 0.7 GDP growth (0.4 in the Eurozone) for it's members whereas major advanced G7 nations have seen 1.0% growth, advanced economies excluding G7 and Eurozone have seen 2.4 growth, other regions and trade blocks also seeing much higher GDP growth .....

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/economic-dataworlds-gdp-growth-by-region

Shirley such a powerhouse economic block with major negotiating clout should be leading the way ....

Not in terms of growth, no we should not be leading the way. Developing countries should.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Not in terms of growth, no we should not be leading the way. Developing countries should.

Looks like you may be right ... pretty grim economic data for our European friends.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/e...is-incoming-after-dire-industrial-performance

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Well that may account for the poor growth discrepancy with some countries but many countries outside the EU were also severely effected by the subprime market crisis not least the US. The US recovered at a far quicker rate see wages, unemployment, growth.



Once again your reasons may account for some of the differences but other western hemisphere economies (eg US, Canada) that were severly hit by the crisis, outperformed the EU.



And thanks for providing a more comprehensive list and at least hinting at the large grey thing casting it's shadow over the EU's economy but I am still astonished when talking about the poor economic performance of the EU none of you specifically mentioned that huge Elephant sitting in the middle of the room ....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro

Wheeling out a Nobel prize-winner in Economics could well be perceived as a trump card, and it raises the debate to even more elevated levels. Yes, Stiglitz is a big critic of the Euro. He is - as I understand it - also very sceptical on the whole idea of trading blocs. He is quite optimistic , too, on the UK's prospects outside of the EU.
However, I think he sees that the euro/euro zone could be reformed rather than simply abolished and I don't think he has ever fully analysed the prospects for the UK outside of the EU. He is pretty pessimistic on the future of the EU but again I don't think he has fully worked through the scenario of an alternative reality - i.e. what would happen to the member states if the EU simply dissolved.
Generally his perspective is one of reverse engineering - i.e. knowing what we know now, he 'd do it differently (and yes, probably wouldn't do it at all).

I think one other thing I'd add is that Stiglitz's views are not reflective of the majority of economists. This might well commend them even more to some people! Finally, you could argue that as we are outside the euro-zone we avoid some of the downsides that Stiglitz posits. As it happens, even as a staunch pro-EU supporter, I never thought we would or should join the euro. Perhaps we don't get the best of both worlds, but we have avoided some of the downsides and still benefitted from the upsides of membership. (And please send my Nobel prize through the post.)

 

[Baker lite]

As a no deal gets ever more likely..work starts on upgrading the channel tunnel

View attachment 104610

We do not need a channel tunnel anymore, we’ve a flotilla of rubber dinghies full of toddlers bringing over our iceberg lettuce.






On our way.


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[Lincoln Imp]

Seeing as how you raised the question in the first place,don't be so needy.Do it yourself.

No. You queried the figure. And you wonder why some people are rude to you.

 

[Gwylan]

the classic English/Tory/small regulation/Singaporean model/financier Brexiteer, like Fergus and Jacob Rees-Mogg etc focuses on the minutiae of currency use and the economic hit on Scotland, as they're ultimately Conservative and Unionists at heart and despite being Brexiteers they don't want to see the break up of the Union.

But my point is why do they say that the economic hit on an independent Scotland is bad but an economic hit on UK is a perfectly acceptable price for an independence. I don't see why there should be such a dissonance here.

 

[Baker lite]

https://twitter.com/jefferson_mfg/status/1095609353955147776?s=21
More bad news....





On our way.


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[beorhthelm]

I think one other thing I'd add is that Stiglitz's views are not reflective of the majority of economists.

i had the impression it is, generally considered the Euro is a political conception with too many disparate economies combined, without enough fiscal control. this leads to a range of views from its fundmentally bad, to good but needs more central authority and tax raising/spending to work.

 

[WATFORD zero]

i had the impression it is, generally considered the Euro is a political conception with too many disparate economies combined, without enough fiscal control. this leads to a range of views from its fundmentally bad, to good but needs more central authority and tax raising/spending to work.

Maybe the reason we never joined, but let's throw out everything we have that has been negotiated over the last 40 years by politicians of every political hue.

It’s definitely the way ahead to throw everything away and start again from scratch and try to negotiate a new deal because that is definitely the best way to conduct international trade negotiations