[Politics] Brexit

[WATFORD zero]

Every day that passes Project Fear gradually becomes project reality

View attachment 101610

Just add it to the list of WTO members who have already publicly raised objections to the schedules and quotas we submitted

USA
New Zealand
Brazil
Canada

(and that's off the top of my head, I haven't bothered going to look)

I believe that any WTO member who objects can still remain confidential at the moment, but the 90 days must be nearly up, so we will get a fair idea of the numbers of members and blocs who have objected and who we will have to negotiate with soon. And I'm sure that negotiating with USA, Russia, Brazil, Canada and New Zealand who have publicised their objections so far, will be far easier than that nasty EU.

Unless, of course, the EU raise objections in their role as a WTO trading bloc

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Yep, No Deal is not cool.


https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1054793018375573505?s=19

And don't forget.... Blue Passports

 

[nicko31]

Leaving on WTO rules doesn't look good now, so we are going to *No deal, with no fallback on WTO rules*.

Will Project Blame now include the Russians, along with everybody else ?

*Any deal is better than No Deal*

ND is still the Brexiteers wet dream

Starting to think we will probably end up with a Norway style EFTA / EEA deal, probably the only thing that could get through parliament.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

ND is still the Brexiteers wet dream

Starting to think we will probably end up with a Norway style EFTA / EEA deal, probably the only thing that could get through parliament.

EFTA and EEA is the only way out of this mess.

Followed by a long pause of reflection to take the heat out of the situation, and to see if we like being a Norway, before careful and wise reflection on whether we want to then move to a Switzerland or Canada model.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Starting to think we will probably end up with a Norway style EFTA / EEA deal, probably the only thing that could get through parliament.

EFTA and EEA is the only way out of this mess.

Followed by a long pause of reflection to take the heat out of the situation, and to see if we like being a Norway, before careful and wise reflection on whether we want to then move to a Switzerland or Canada model.

That's my thinking as well, for a time limited period to begin with. We have to hit no deal territory first though.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Are most of you not incredibly bored of this thread now? I dip back in occasionally to see if anything from either side has anything remotely useful to say on whatever the newest peice of scaremongering is but it’s basically the same people having the same discussions ad infinitum.

To be fair, you are not unusual amongst a certain group of the populace who, having slowly (in some cases, VERY slowly) dawned on them how badly thought out their preferred option was, have now decided to run away 'or become bored' with the total F*** up they have created and hope that someone else will sort it out.

Don't worry, as per normal, the grown-ups will deal with it

 

[WATFORD zero]

That's my thinking as well, for a time limited period to begin with. We have to hit no deal territory first though.

My guess at the moment, will be an extension of current terms (ie full membership, full payment, no influence) pushing the NI/Ireland decision back into that extension, or TM will do what she did in December last year for the phase 1 negotiations and agree full CU membership at the 11th hour. That would, of course, open up the 2 year extension to membership (the one that used to be called 'implemenation' but is now called 'transition'). And she has already asked for a further year's extension on that.

Beyond that, who knows

More fudging and perfect conditions for business and economic growth.

But the only thing that is certain is that we are not leaving on 29th March 2019 with a WTO 'no deal', and anyone who still thinks we are must be a little 'challenged'

 

[Stat Brother]

Thank God we've got rid of them.

[tweet]1055365774460751872[/tweet]

 

[ManOfSussex]

My guess at the moment, will be an extension of current terms (ie full membership, full payment, no influence) pushing the NI/Ireland decision back into that extension, or TM will do what she did in December last year for the phase 1 negotiations and agree full CU membership at the 11th hour. That would, of course, open up the 2 year extension to membership (the one that used to be called 'implemenation' but is now called 'transition'). And she has already asked for a further year's extension on that.

Beyond that, who knows

More fudging and perfect conditions for business and economic growth.

But the only thing that is certain is that we are not leaving on 29th March 2019 with a WTO 'no deal', and anyone who still thinks we are must be a little 'challenged'

That's perfectly possible. EFTA is cheaper though than an ongoing implementation period in budgetary contributions, and as you know full well 3 years isn't going to be nearly enough time for what will need to put in place and built, both infrastructure and administration wise, for an FTA let alone the no deal fable. There's also the problem of the Scottish Tories promises on the CFP with a status quo transition and EFTA FOM is a better spin line to make on immigration than FOM just carrying on exactly as now in a transition. It also keeps the UK together (for now) and all constituent parts equal.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

ND is still the Brexiteers wet dream

Starting to think we will probably end up with a Norway style EFTA / EEA deal, probably the only thing that could get through parliament.

It would probably get through parliament although May would have to rely on enough Labour MPs coming aboard to compensate for the ERG ones she'd lose. If the deal is benign enough for Corbyn not to apply the whips in voting against it she will be home and dry. The dynamics of the house will be transformed though.

It is worth bearing in mind that a Norway-style deal is hardly anyone's favourite. I recall a recent poll mentioning 11 per cent. We will have gone through this nasty, divisive and expensive process in order to get to a situation that no one really wants. What a victory.

 

[WATFORD zero]

That's perfectly possible. EFTA is cheaper though than an ongoing implementation period in budgetary contributions, and as you know full well 3 years isn't going to be nearly enough time for what will need to put in place and built, both infrastructure and administration wise, for an FTA let alone the no deal fable. There's also the problem of the Scottish Tories promises on the CFP with a status quo transition and EFTA FOM is a better spin line to make on immigration than FOM just carrying on exactly as now in a transition. It also keeps the UK together (for now) and all constituent parts equal.

Whether it's EFTA or extensions, the problem is that we are in limbo with none of the politicians (of any side) wanting to make a decision and alienate a significant proportion of the electorate. This is the original death by a thousand cuts to both businesses and the economy, with no possibility of forward planning or sufficient confidence for investment.

If no politician is willing to make a decision, the only way out of this that I can see is a further vote (either referendum or GE) further down the line when the economic impact of this farcical situation that we are currently in becomes clear.

 

[Two Professors]

I'm not too sure I'd plunge the entire country into the abyss for £150k, but it's nice to know not everybody loses.

View attachment 101609

Perhaps if you added the other 72 MEPs payments in,it might go some way to explaining costs we will not have to pay anymore.

 

[Two Professors]

There are a lot of oldies with defined benefit pensions that don't give a sh1t, they know best and feel little gratitude for the last 40 years where the country generally has generally gone from strength to strength

These people but not stupid but are just pretty selfish and contribute very little to the world around them

You really amaze me,managing to combine being a bore and a boor is pretty unique.Who do you think created the wealth of the last 40 years,and contribute massively by charity volunteering.You obviously have no idea of charity,so look it up.It comes between cant and c<nt.

 

[Da Man Clay]

To be fair, you are not unusual amongst a certain group of the populace who, having slowly (in some cases, VERY slowly) dawned on them how badly thought out their preferred option was, have now decided to run away 'or become bored' with the total F*** up they have created and hope that someone else will sort it out.

Don't worry, as per normal, the grown-ups will deal with it

I’m actually a remainer and voted as such... if you go back far enough in this two grouped circle jerk you’ll find me saying exactly that. Thanks for the condescending bollocks though.

 

[clapham_gull]

Perhaps if you added the other 72 MEPs payments in,it might go some way to explaining costs we will not have to pay anymore.

It's those ridiculous simplistic arguments that annoy me.

There are good arguments on either side of the debate, but to suggest we are quids in because of MEP salaries is utter nonsense.

Far outweighed (for years) by the money spent by UK business to put contingency plans in place. Consultants and Solicitors have been raking it in.

Sent from my BLA-L09 using Tapatalk

 

[nicko31]

It's those ridiculous simplistic arguments that annoy me.

There are good arguments on either side of the debate, but to suggest we are quids in because of MEP salaries is utter nonsense.

Far outweighed (for years) by the money spent by UK business to put contingency plans in place. Consultants and Solicitors have been raking it in.

Sent from my BLA-L09 using Tapatalk

Not to mention the 2.5% of lost GDP since the UK embarked on its Brexit paralysis. MEP's salaries really are a drop in the ocean...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1055363460291272704[/tweet]

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1055364815282147328[/tweet]

 

[ManOfSussex]

Whether it's EFTA or extensions, the problem is that we are in limbo with none of the politicians (of any side) wanting to make a decision and alienate a significant proportion of the electorate. This is the original death by a thousand cuts to both businesses and the economy, with no possibility of forward planning or sufficient confidence for investment.

If no politician is willing to make a decision, the only way out of this that I can see is a further vote (either referendum or GE) further down the line when the economic impact of this farcical situation that we are currently in becomes clear.

Whatever happens it's a limbo alright and it'll drag on-and-on into and through the 2020's and it's just a question of how much damage is done. I recall last year the Stoke City chairman Peter Coates saying we'll look back and say 'why did we do that?' Summed it up quite succinctly.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

[tweet]1055364815282147328[/tweet]

Or if we did 759 at once and they took a year each then all would be resolved in a year. Ridiculous and simplistic ? Yes. But no more than the suggested figures in that Tweet.