[Politics] Brexit

[portslade seagull]

The total gdp of the EU countries is about 15 trillion dollars. This means that the 39 billion is about 0.35% of total EU27. For one year. That is basically a rounding error in history. Do you really think the EU will be held to ransom over what is a pretty insignificant sum as a one off payment?

39 billion is obviously a hell of a lot of money to you and I, but to a economic super power like the EU it really isn’t. The sooner people realise that the better.

As a point of comparison it is like someone who earns 100k a year being held to ransom over 350 quid. Do you really think that would happen? Be serious with your answer.

It's not about the GDP though is it. This is the running costs of the EU and yes 39B is a lot of money in that sense. If it wasn't so important why are they looking to cut the running costs to alleviate losing it.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Try telling Barnier and Juncker that. They don't think so, keeps Juncker in drink fo a few more yrs

It honestly is [MENTION=24865]Berty23[/MENTION] summed it up well

The total gdp of the EU countries is about 15 trillion dollars. This means that the 39 billion is about 0.35% of total EU27. For one year. That is basically a rounding error in history. Do you really think the EU will be held to ransom over what is a pretty insignificant sum as a one off payment?

39 billion is obviously a hell of a lot of money to you and I, but to a economic super power like the EU it really isn’t. The sooner people realise that the better.

As a point of comparison it is like someone who earns 100k a year being held to ransom over 350 quid. Do you really think that would happen? Be serious with your answer.

You wouldn't pay it if you didn't have to but it certainly isn't a deal breaker and probably won't have much effect on any trade negotiations

 

[Berty23]

Does that figure include the Uk?


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Not the source I had. The c2.6 trillion dollar uk not included.

In fact EU might be nudging closer 20 than 15 trillion. It is all quite rough. Hence 39 billion is a rounding error.

It doesn’t really change the point though does it?

 

[portslade seagull]

It honestly is [MENTION=24865]Berty23[/MENTION] summed it up well

The GDP could be 20 trillion but it doesn't matter one iota if none of the 27 are prepared to up their payments to Brussels. I think you'll find most have already said they won't.
A deal will be done to secure that pittance

 

[portslade seagull]

Not the source I had. The c2.6 trillion dollar uk not included.

In fact EU might be nudging closer 20 than 15 trillion. It is all quite rough. Hence 39 billion is a rounding error.

It doesn’t really change the point though does it?

What does GDP have to do with what payments are made to the EU. Nothing so how does it have any relevance

 

[Baker lite]

Not the source I had. The c2.6 trillion dollar uk not included.

In fact EU might be nudging closer 20 than 15 trillion. It is all quite rough. Hence 39 billion is a rounding error.

It doesn’t really change the point though does it?

Certainly doesn’t change the point,was just curious if it included the Uk figure.


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[WATFORD zero]

The GDP could be 20 trillion but it doesn't matter one iota if none of the 27 are prepared to up their payments to Brussels. I think you'll find most have already said they won't.
A deal will be done to secure that pittance

I think that may be another one that we'll have to disagree on

 

[Berty23]

It's not about the GDP though is it. This is the running costs of the EU and yes 39B is a lot of money in that sense. If it wasn't so important why are they looking to cut the running costs to alleviate losing it.

Of course they will do that. However, if worst came to worst then others can pay a tiny bit more. They still gain massively and if we leave with no deal then you can be sure no one will want to copy us once it unravels!

That money is The equivalent to about a third of our annual nhs budget. To think that thebEU can’t take this one of hit belongs in a dreamland.

 

[Berty23]

What does GDP have to do with what payments are made to the EU. Nothing so how does it have any relevance

It simply shows the power of the countries involved. As per my other post...if we leave with no deal then 90% of our exports previously linked to eu trade deals will be hit with WTO. Suddenly all the other countries will realise what is dawning on people here. The membership is a small price to pay to be part of such a powerful economic bloc.

The EU is so powerful that Japan won’t be able to have a trade deal with us without clearing with the EU.

 

[portslade seagull]

Of course they will do that. However, if worst came to worst then others can pay a tiny bit more. They still gain massively and if we leave with no deal then you can be sure no one will want to copy us once it unravels!

That money is The equivalent to about a third of our annual nhs budget. To think that thebEU can’t take this one of hit belongs in a dreamland.

I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

 

[portslade seagull]

I think that may be another one that we'll have to disagree on

Are you a No Deal advocate now then ??

 

[Thunder Bolt]

But you (or remainers) think that Brexit voters voted leaves because they are thick or racist. Remainers can’t seem to understand that many Brexit voters just don’t like their laws to be dictated by unelected technocrats, who have an ultimate goal of a country called Europe with no national identity.

You do realise the laws in this country are passed by unelected people in Parliament? You have no say in the leader of the Tories, not the cabinet ministers, the civil service or the House of Lords. All of which help pass laws here.
The EU democracy is more accountable than the Houses of Parliament.

 

[Berty23]

I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

The only way a deal will be done is if we do what we are told. We will end up following rules we have no say over and the red lines will vanish. Is that what you voted for? We have so litttle leverage here. Are the EU stockpiling food and drugs? Are EU companies setting up a base in the UK in case of no deal? Of course not. Anyone who still thinks they need us more is deluded.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

I think that anyone with any sense is hoping no deal proves to be just that and we get a deal with the EU. However, they are very much in the driving seat and I think TM's deal will have to 'soften' a fair bit further before we get a deal. If it's then a Norway type deal, you have to ask yourself whether it was worth it ?

I really don't think 39Billion is going to have much effect either way.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Are you a No Deal advocate now then ??

NO NO NO NO

I was referring to 'the pittance' having any effect.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

Do you honestly think Theresa May can get the Tories to agree a deal to put to the EU in the next eleven weeks?
Parliament is still on holiday & then you've got the party conferences to come.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Do you honestly think Theresa May can get the Tories to agree a deal to put to the EU in the next eleven weeks?
Parliament is still on holiday & then you've got the party conferences to come.

As unlikely as that seems, it's either going to be that or some sort of vote (Leadership, GE or Referendum2) as I really do not think 'no deal' is achievable in any form and Britain committing economic suicide would not be good for the EU.

If we pay enough, there could be some sort of extension to membership, full payments, no rebates, no influence, while we sort out what is going to happen ?

 

[GT49er]

You do realise the laws in this country are passed by unelected people in Parliament?

No they're not. They're passed by elected MPs in the House of Commons. Granted they often nod through legislation promulgated by civil servants via their various minsters, and act in accordance with the dictats of the whips, but they still have the final say.
The Lords (unelected) can and do hinder and delay things a bit, but by law they cannot stop legislation. The Commons can over-rule them. Just as well, with all the self-satisfied old buffers wanting to remain in the EU gravy train and sod the people.

 

[GT49er]

As unlikely as that seems, it's either going to be that or some sort of vote (Leadership, GE or Referendum2) as I really do not think 'no deal' is achievable in any form and Britain committing economic suicide would not be good for the EU

You don't have to 'achieve' a No Deal; if there is no agreement then there will inevitably be no deal. Rather obvious to everyone who isn't desperately clinging to some sort of fantasy that somehow Brexit will go away.

If we pay enough, there could be some sort of extension to membership, full payments, no rebates, no influence, while we sort out what is going to happen?

God forbid.


Or have you got a few billions to pay if you think it's such a good idea to go on subsidising the EU? If so, you're welcome to cough up. I won't, not willingly anyway.

 

[WATFORD zero]

You don't have to 'achieve' a No Deal; if there is no agreement then there will inevitably be no deal. Rather obvious to everyone who isn't desperately clinging to some sort of fantasy that somehow Brexit will go away.

I'm sure you are as sick of reading it as I am of posting in but

Ok, specifically for a 'no deal' by 29th March 2019 we have to

Negotiate our WTO submission with any member who raises issues in the next 90 days or default to the highest level of Tariff.
We have to build a border and customs posts in Northern Ireland
We need to build the lorry parks at Dover and the other ports
We need to design, test and build the IT systems to run the newly negotitiated WTO rules and Tariffs
We we will need to recruit and train all customs and administrative staff to run the WTO processes and systems

Now if you could have some sort of fantasy where these would 'go away' it would make Brexit a whole lot easier