[Politics] Brexit

[Hampster Gull]

nah ill take it as a capitulation

ive never encountered anyone OUT the tent pissing IN,they usually piss about all over the place somewhere else.

however i have unfortunately encountered someone IN the tent trying to piss OUT, it didnt turn out well,in fact it was a disaster of biblical proportions that had a knock on effect of being trapped IN with no OUT options left when the pisser crashed all over the only way OUT left.you really dont want to be still be IN under these conditions.
This is an awful awful strategy and i would not recommend it at all.

Best get OUT first before you decide to piss at all.

Here endeth the lesson

Perhaps no one should piss near a tent

 

[Steve in Japan]

how do you get 88% of all economists think x,when only 17% respond

bit absurd

That should be 88% of economists who responded.! Its mentioned in the story - at the bottom - but few people read beyond the headline. Both sides are guilty of fiddling the numbers, of bending the truth as necessary.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

600 economists who leave the city every evening, back to their 1 million pound houses in leafy Surrey with zero immigration.

Someone made an interesting point, immigration should be about skills and not where people come from.
It is why we need one immigration system for all, we pick who we allow in and not the other way around where the EU tell us what to do.

 

[5ways]

Sir you do a great disservice to the medical profession a better comparison would be faith healers ... a great disservice to mechanics who provide a useful verifiable service to the public .... balloonists (wtf?).

If 100% of economists said there may possibly be some economic cost to Brexit I would judge them on their track record and not swallow their guesswork just because it suited my argument.

Economist consensus has been proved wrong on numerous occasions, can you guarantee they are not wrong this time?

I can honestly say if I really cared about my countries future I wouldn't be relying on economists to justify my position.

I was thinking about the pound crashing. I really doubt that 600 economists base their forecasts entirely on guess work, and argue that, well, you know - people are wrong sometimes. 88% is a safe safe safe bet. If you were at the races and 600 bookies put a one horse on 88% chance to win would you bet against this horse? I can't guarantee that my train will be delayed, but there is an 88% chance it will be on time. I think I'll turn up at the station then, rather than sleep in though it's tempting. Saying that,the train - the Eurostar - might be late so I might just risk it.

Except you're not losing a bet or missing a train, you're condemning the UK to years of lower growth, a weaker economy, job losses and poorer prospects for graduates.

 

[5ways]

That should be 88% of economists who responded.! Its mentioned in the story - at the bottom - but few people read beyond the headline. Both sides are guilty of fiddling the numbers, of bending the truth as necessary.

I don't see the other lot lining up to argue for Brexit. I see 7 economists and 1 hobbit economists for Brexiit.

 

[5ways]

as a thinking and rational person as you put it have you ever considered if these economists who you highly rate as credible are in fact working in the interest of their own pockets.

I can see how an economist would be interested in a larger and more prosperous UK inside the EU rather than cut-adrift flailing in the mid-Atlantic.

 

[beorhthelm]

I was thinking about the pound crashing. I really doubt that 600 economists base their forecasts entirely on guess work, and argue that, well, you know - people are wrong sometimes. 88% is a safe safe safe bet.

really? find out how many economist were predicting the recession of 2008 on? i'll help you out, in 2007, even with the subprime mortgage known but the full effects yet to be discovered, IMF was predicting 2% growth in EU and 1.9% in US . interestingly EU GDP growth for 2007 was actually more than their estimate then, coming in at 3.1%. even in Sept 2007 they couldnt accurately predict GDP growth for 2007. economist work with forecasting all the time, and they know they are forecasts and full of assumptions, exceptions and, most importantly, corrections. in normal operations economist dont give much weight to long term forecast and wouldnt bet much on them. it they did and they were accurate, they'd be rich and working in finance, not in academia.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I really doubt that 600 economists base their forecasts entirely on guess work,

Really ? So how do you explain how a vast majority of economists were wrong about their predictions of what would happen if we didn't join the Euro ? Or equally how did this panel of 'experts' not predict the collapse of Greece and the Eurozone ?

 

[portslade seagull]

Really ? So how do you explain how a vast majority of economists were wrong about their predictions of what would happen if we didn't join the Euro ? Or equally how did this panel of 'experts' not predict the collapse of Greece and the Eurozone ?

They are protecting there own interests as a vote out would probably hit them in the pocket, bless

 

[cunning fergus]

The impacts of globalisation on the "working class" isn't due to the EU, look wider, eg China. And the impact isnt only on the UK or other European countries, look at the hinterlands of the USA. And of course this is just the latest in a long line of globasiation periods in the worlds history. Indeed we were at the leading it for many centuries and we still benefit from that now. Our great trading history and skills comes from globalisation.

The way to help out isnt to become narrow in our focus by blaming immigrants and trying to go back to a "nirvana" period where people worked down the mines. It is to look to new industries. Unless we want our kids earning what a Chinese labourer earns then we should champion education and focus on industries where we add value. As a country we are wealthier than we have ever been, lets do more, and be more inclusive to all in our society.

Far from blaming migrants, I understand their motive for a better life.

They want to live in the corpulent west with all the rampant consumerism that life demands.

Not protecting those at the lower end of the social scale in this country however commits them to economic Darwinism. This rolls back years of social progress in this country.........de rigour for the Tories.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I was thinking about the pound crashing. I really doubt that 600 economists base their forecasts entirely on guess work, and argue that, well, you know - people are wrong sometimes. 88% is a safe safe safe bet. If you were at the races and 600 bookies put a one horse on 88% chance to win would you bet against this horse? I can't guarantee that my train will be delayed, but there is an 88% chance it will be on time. I think I'll turn up at the station then, rather than sleep in though it's tempting. Saying that,the train - the Eurostar - might be late so I might just risk it.

Except you're not losing a bet or missing a train, you're condemning the UK to years of lower growth, a weaker economy, job losses and poorer prospects for graduates.

Have all these economists produced economic forecasts? I believe 600 (17%) of the economists who could be bothered to respond to this online survey are against Brexit for a variety of reasons whereas the other 83% couldn't be bothered to respond. If Economists opinion was so certain and unified in the supposed risks of Brexit you would have thought at least 51% could be bothered to sign.

Loving all the home spun completely irrelevant analogies but I prefer to look at real life data showing the track record of economists ability to forecast accurately. How many predicted the 2008 crash? Between 1971 and 2012 the OECD wrongly predicted growth 39 out of 42 times just forecasting one year ahead. If economists went into the bookie business they would have all gone bankrupt years ago!

 

[Steve in Japan]

I don't see the other lot lining up to argue for Brexit. I see 7 economists and 1 hobbit economists for Brexiit.

It could be that some of the 83% who didn't respond are honest enough to admit they don't have a clue. You never know.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Far from blaming migrants, I understand their motive for a better life.

They want to live in the corpulent west with all the rampant consumerism that life demands.

Not protecting those at the lower end of the social scale in this country however commits them to economic Darwinism. This rolls back years of social progress in this country.........de rigour for the Tories.

I believe social progress has been stronger in the EU than it would have been outside. And you protect through education, strong incentives to work and protection when they can't. There has always been immigration, since say one, it wont change

 

[Lincoln Imp]

They are protecting there own interests as a vote out would probably hit them in the pocket, bless

A Brexiter was on here about 5 million posts ago saying that some experts were wrong about the millennium bug so he wasn't going to listen to any experts at all. Especially if they came to a conclusion different to his. It might be better if you joined him and avoided them.

 

[Buzzer]

On the plus side, whatever the result of the referendum it would appear that Cameron is a dead duck. There are Tories sharpening their knives right now and if there is one thing the Conservative Party is excellent at, it is regicide. There's not another UK political party as ruthless in deposing its leader than them. And good riddance to Cameron. His promise of a One-Nation Conservatism was all just hot air.

The bad news is who would replace him? Osborne? May? Hunt? Johnson? No thanks to any of those. The Tories have another tradition of the leadership race being won by an outsider but sadly I can't see the outsider coming from the left of the party.

 

[Bladders]

On the plus side, whatever the result of the referendum it would appear that Cameron is a dead duck. There are Tories sharpening their knives right now and if there is one thing the Conservative Party is excellent at, it is regicide. There's not another UK political party as ruthless in deposing its leader than them. And good riddance to Cameron. His promise of a One-Nation Conservatism was all just hot air.

The bad news is who would replace him? Osborne? May? Hunt? Johnson? No thanks to any of those. The Tories have another tradition of the leadership race being won by an outsider but sadly I can't see the outsider coming from the left of the party.

You're right, Cameron is on borrowed the me whatever the result.

I've never rated Johnson, in fact I've always been a bit shocked that he is regularly mooted for the top job.

He's fine for promoting London during the olympics and hanging helplessly from zip wired for s giggle and having his name attached to Boris Bikes etc , but PM? No way.

He's been poor on this EU out campaign as well, really poor:

 

[Hampster Gull]

It could be that some of the 83% who didn't respond are honest enough to admit they don't have a clue. You never know.

Maybe they are all immigrants and thinks its best to keep their heads down

 

[portslade seagull]

A Brexiter was on here about 5 million posts ago saying that some experts were wrong about the millennium bug so he wasn't going to listen to any experts at all. Especially if they came to a conclusion different to his. It might be better if you joined him and avoided them.

Think you are talking about yourself there. You don't like any argument that goes against your beliefs

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes Cameron is on borrowed time, stock in Osborne has plummeted for numerous valid reasons I think the eurosceptic half of the party will be out for revenge post referendum so possibly May or even Gove are serious contenders ... which will do wonders for any new positive 'getting stuck in' approach to the EU when the Tories win the next election.

 

[pastafarian]

On the plus side, whatever the result of the referendum it would appear that Cameron is a dead duck. There are Tories sharpening their knives right now and if there is one thing the Conservative Party is excellent at, it is regicide. There's not another UK political party as ruthless in deposing its leader than them. And good riddance to Cameron. His promise of a One-Nation Conservatism was all just hot air.

The bad news is who would replace him? Osborne? May? Hunt? Johnson? No thanks to any of those. The Tories have another tradition of the leadership race being won by an outsider but sadly I can't see the outsider coming from the left of the party.

Herr T is a tory
perhaps he could stand