[Politics] Brexit

[Buzzer]

OOH nice, have a look at 2 years so it includes pre referendum. We are not back to where we were, and we have not even done it yet.

Okey dokey. And just for fun I've added the Euro against the Yen too. Who's have thunk it? They're pretty much following the same pattern.

 

[Baldseagull]

Look at 10 years Yen then. In a reasonable band since 2008.

View attachment 89617

Go on, post the two year one, just for me.

 

[Baldseagull]

Okey dokey. And just for fun I've added the Euro against the Yen too. Who's have thunk it? They're pretty much following the same pattern.

I think I prefer Larus charts, yours says 2 years in text but is showing 5 on the graph.

Edit: forgot to say, despite the poor graph, it does show a similar pattern, because Euro and Pound are linked heavily, Brexit vote was a knock for them too, but they are doing better than us at the minute.

 

[Buzzer]

I think I prefer Larus charts, yours says 2 years in text but is showing 5 on the graph

Aye but if you look at the headings you'll see I selected 2 years (it's the label in bold). It's just the way that website does their graphs. Try it for yourself: https://www.chartoasis.com/forex/1/eur_jpy/2_years.html

Mind you, I'm struggling to see your issue here. 2 years ago was 2015 and maybe it's just me but I think it's quite easy to pick out what happened between the line marked 2015 and the one marked 2017.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The only chart that really matters (to people who respect democracy)

 

[Baldseagull]

Aye but if you look at the headings you'll see I selected 2 years (it's the label in bold). It's just the way that website does their graphs. Try it for yourself: https://www.chartoasis.com/forex/1/eur_jpy/2_years.html

Mind you, I'm struggling to see your issue here. 2 years ago was 2015 and maybe it's just me but I think it's quite easy to pick out what happened between the line marked 2015 and the one marked 2017.

I can't get any chart to show up for me there, I will find one.

 

[Baldseagull]

The only chart that really matters (to people who respect democracy)

You cant trust that source JC, it's the bloody biased BBC, probably just did a straw poll in a pub.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You cant trust that source JC, it's the bloody biased BBC, probably just did a straw poll in a pub.

Pah .. loony left pro EU BBC, probably means leave actually won by at least 10%!

 

[Baldseagull]

Yaah, I cant do it, more beer then bed.

 

[Mental Lental]

Okey dokey. And just for fun I've added the Euro against the Yen too. Who's have thunk it? They're pretty much following the same pattern.

Remember that the Japanese have been fervently trying to deliberately weaken their currency in order to stay competitive in manufacturing. You can still see the Brexit dive bomb on the GPB/Yen chart that ultimately saw it drop to about 129 in September of 2016. It definitely had some effect on the exchange rate. I remember watching it literally tanking by the minute as it was the start of the business morning here when the results were coming in during the early hours of the morning back in Blighty. It went from 160 to about 135 in ONE DAY. There's no way you can argue that that wasn't directly due to the referendum result.

 

[Buzzer]

Remember that the Japanese have been fervently trying to deliberately weaken their currency in order to stay competitive in manufacturing. You can still see the Brexit dive bomb on the GPB/Yen chart that ultimately saw it drop to about 129 in September of 2016. It definitely had some effect on the exchange rate. I remember watching it literally tanking by the minute as it was the start of the business morning here when the results were coming in during the early hours of the morning back in Blighty. It went from 160 to about 135 in ONE DAY. There's no way you can argue that that wasn't directly due to the referendum result.

Of course it was. I agree with all of your points. However, the one I was trying to make (and apologies if not clear earlier) is that Sterling although considerably weaker than 2 years ago the 2 graphs are very similar both before and after the referendum suggesting that Sterling is not particularly weak relative to the Euro nor that it has got significantly weaker relative to the Euro in the last year.

 

[Mental Lental]

Of course it was. I agree with all of your points. However, the one I was trying to make (and apologies if not clear earlier) is that Sterling although considerably weaker than 2 years ago the 2 graphs are very similar both before and after the referendum suggesting that Sterling is not particularly weak relative to the Euro nor that it has got significantly weaker relative to the Euro in the last year.

Looking back on it now you can see that nearly all the major currencies of the world took a beating that day. It was almost as if the financial world lost all faith in reason and logic and started buying up gold in preparation for the apocalypse. I can kind of understand why they felt that way.

 

[Eeyore]

The only chart that really matters (to people who respect democracy)

Yes. But when you decide to divorce you don't just pack your bags and leave. There's loads of things to sort out. Especially when your lives have been so intertwined for 40 odd years.

This is what people just aren't getting. If anyone thought this could be sown up in two years it is they who were deluded.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

What a f*****g shambles. This speech was just a long-winded way of saying "Help - we triggered Article 50 but we didn't know what we were doing. We need another two years to work it all out." And having spent 15 months doing nothing but argue amongst ourselves and abuse the rest of the EU, we expect them to give in. As I said at the time (but I claim no credit - it was obvious to everyone), triggering Article 50 just gave all the negotiating cards to the EU27....the government has now realised we are shafted, and if Barnier decides not to play ball, we will all pay a huge price. Thank you May,, Boris, Davis, Fox, Gove et al.

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree about leaving, how else were we meant to leave without triggering Article 50 ?

 

[Jim in the West]

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree about leaving, how else were we meant to leave without triggering Article 50 ?

My point is - if you WERE intent on leaving, then at least (a) work out your negotiating position first, and (b) put everything in place to enable that strategy to be implemented. For example, if you decided that Leave meant also leaving the Customs Union, ensure you'd got a solution for Northern Ireland, put all the IT systems in place, etc. It is SO basic, I am inclined to think that the majority of MPs who voted to trigger Article 50 before putting a plan in place are just plain stupid.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Yes. But when you decide to divorce you don't just pack your bags and leave. There's loads of things to sort out. Especially when your lives have been so intertwined for 40 odd years.

This is what people just aren't getting. If anyone thought this could be sown up in two years it is they who were deluded.

To be fair, the two year 'limit' is of the EU's making - the cynic in me suggests it was enacted to deter countries from leaving or that the EU were arrogant enough to think nobody would ever want to leave.

 

[Jim in the West]

To be fair, the two year 'limit' is of the EU's making - the cynic in me suggests it was enacted to deter countries from leaving or that the EU were arrogant enough to think nobody would ever want to leave.

Yes - but the two years only starts when you trigger Article 50. Nothing to stop the UK government from waiting a few years before giving notice.

 

[Jim in the West]

Parliament has democratically voted on this issue and has decided against (in significant numbers) having another public vote on the issue.
Is this how things "should work in a parliamentary democracy"?, one minute you are in favour and the next you want this parliamentary vote ignored...........someone is confused/desperate

My point is simply that, once the deal is agreed, there should be an opportunity for Parliament and/or the people to vote on that deal. I'm not sure what's confusing or desperate about that.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

My point is simply that, once the deal is agreed, there should be an opportunity for Parliament and/or the people to vote on that deal. I'm not sure what's confusing or desperate about that.

But Parliament democratically voted that there shouldn't be a vote on the deal.

It was the correct call. Remainers say they want stability but if there was a vote on the deal it could lead to many more years of instability. Imagine if parliament rejected the deal - we'd be in a very grey area of getting out but parliament not allowing us to do so. And don't say we would automatically stay in the EU if the deal was rejected ..... that's just a way of making the first referendum null and void.

 

[Berty23]

Okey dokey. And just for fun I've added the Euro against the Yen too. Who's have thunk it? They're pretty much following the same pattern.

So what the pattern is that same? This graph shows sterling having a 22% fall from peak and the euro about half that. Look at the y axis. Yes the pattern is the same but the scale is completely different.

Or was this graph supposed to show how badly the pound has fallen in comparison?