[Politics] Brexit

[Buzzer]

The drop was the reaction to the speech though, the rise was the reaction to the drop. Technically they were correct, but yes, how it finishes the day is more important.

The tweet was at 3.15pm and links to a live update news website so it's not like it's referring to a specific article. Clearly from the 2nd graph, the position had completely recovered by the time the tweet was written. It's selective reporting at its worst and very poor journalism.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes, we all know the definition of democracy is calling an advisory referendum and then interpreting it as conclusive. Oh, and peddling lies throughout. And not being clear what "Leave" meant. And then making countless attempts to bypass parliament. All in the name of "the will of the people". If Leavers think democracy is so important, why are they scared of actually putting the final deal to the people? Why is the government desperately trying NOT to disclose the results of around 50 different studies into the impact of Brexit? The plain fact is, Brexiteers have absolutely ZERO concern for democracy. The likes of Boris, Gove, Aaron Banks, Nigel Lawson, Farage, etc, etc are all too rich to be impacted by Brexit. The losers will be the poor, the elderly, those in ill-health....they have been absolutely screwed. There is no £350m a week going to the NHS!

 

[larus]

Yes, we all know the definition of democracy is calling an advisory referendum and then interpreting it as conclusive. Oh, and peddling lies throughout. And not being clear what "Leave" meant. And then making countless attempts to bypass parliament. All in the name of "the will of the people". If Leavers think democracy is so important, why are they scared of actually putting the final deal to the people? Why is the government desperately trying NOT to disclose the results of around 50 different studies into the impact of Brexit? The plain fact is, Brexiteers have absolutely ZERO concern for democracy. The likes of Boris, Gove, Aaron Banks, Nigel Lawson, Farage, etc, etc are all too rich to be impacted by Brexit. The losers will be the poor, the elderly, those in ill-health....they have been absolutely screwed. There is no £350m a week going to the NHS!

What about the lies from project fear?
£30bln emergency budget.
Rising interest rates.
House price crash.
Recession.
Back of the queue for trade deal from US (**** Obama - the UK hater).
£4300 worse off per family.

And, wait for it. WW III.

All this if we voted Brexit, not when we left.

I agree the £350m is overstated and wrong, but compared to the lies from all of the establishment it is minor.

Regarding democracy, I have no problem with another vote on the outcome of negotiations. Only caveat on that is when the EU force more changes and demand more integration, then we get another vote. After all, democracy works both ways. Are you will to accept that?

 

[Jim in the West]

As I understand it, we have capitulated on just about everything. Assuming the EU27 agrees, we are going to be members of the EU for another two years, with no votes on anything.....but having to pay up. Leavers must be loving it - is this your version of the perfect Brexit? [And all this extra time means more Oldies dying off, and more liberal-minded youngsters reaching voting age. It's apparently 52/48 now to Remain....probably close to 60/40 by the time we get to 2021. How about a second Referendum in (say) October 2020? That would be hilarious ]

 

[larus]

The drop was the reaction to the speech though, the rise was the reaction to the drop. Technically they were correct, but yes, how it finishes the day is more important.

12 months movement. Not so bad now is it. The only daily movements you should worry about are your bowels.

 

[Jim in the West]

What about the lies from project fear?
£30bln emergency budget.
Rising interest rates.
House price crash.
Recession.
Back of the queue for trade deal from US (**** Obama - the UK hater).
£4300 worse off per family.

And, wait for it. WW III.

All this if we voted Brexit, not when we left.

I agree the £350m is overstated and wrong, but compared to the lies from all of the establishment it is minor.

Regarding democracy, I have no problem with another vote on the outcome of negotiations. Only caveat on that is when the EU force more changes and demand more integration, then we get another vote. After all, democracy works both ways. Are you will to accept that?

By the way, the government itself (i.e., Theresa May's government) has already admitted we will be £15bn a year worse off. Interest rates are set to rise in a few months. We have just about the lowest growth in GDP of any OECD economy. Most countries we are seeking trade deals from have politely said "B*gger off while we sort things with the EU first", and all the time domestic services (NHS, social care, schools, transport, infrastructure...) are being starved of funds. We will now be consumed by the Brexit debate for another FOUR years, and nothing much will happen on any of those domestic issues. Project Fear is turning out to be pretty accurate, if you ask me.

And to answer your point on democracy, any future changes to EU structure, etc, would need to be approved by each member state. In the past (in the UK) this has been done at parliamentary level. That's how things should work in a parliamentary democracy, so that's fine by me.

 

[Baldseagull]

Pavilionaire queried the statement that Brexit wasn't the will of the British people linking to a poll that showed 52% 48%in favour of remain the one I linked to suggested otherwise. A more recent poll confirms this http://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...u-or-not-and-should-britain-now-leave-or-not/

Yes democracy is flawed and the majority can be wrong but not enacting their wishes is inherently undemocratic and extremely dangerous. I am sure you would agree.

The major flaw seems to be that is ok if you are a Politician to lie, not just about what you will do, but also the known facts. If Boris were trying to sell us a product the advertising standards authority could have him remove misleading statements, but apparently we need protecting more from exaggerations of how white a certain toothpaste will make our teeth.

But even if both sides of the argument were fairly presented, a 52/48 split gives me no confidence that it was ever truly the will of the people, the various reasons for which have been done a thousand times here.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The major flaw seems to be that is ok if you are a Politician to lie, not just about what you will do, but also the known facts. If Boris were trying to sell us a product the advertising standards authority could have him remove misleading statements, but apparently we need protecting more from exaggerations of how white a certain toothpaste will make our teeth.

But even if both sides of the argument were fairly presented, a 52/48 split gives me no confidence that it was ever truly the will of the people, the various reasons for which have been done a thousand times here.

For Boris see Osborne As much as people on the extreme loon fringe don't like it even a significant percentage of the remain side (a majority in some polls) agree we should get on with enacting the democratic will of the majority. Rightly so.

 

[larus]

By the way, the government itself (i.e., Theresa May's government) has already admitted we will be £15bn a year worse off. Interest rates are set to rise in a few months. We have just about the lowest growth in GDP of any OECD economy. Most countries we are seeking trade deals from have politely said "B*gger off while we sort things with the EU first", and all the time domestic services (NHS, social care, schools, transport, infrastructure...) are being starved of funds. We will now be consumed by the Brexit debate for another FOUR years, and nothing much will happen on any of those domestic issues. Project Fear is turning out to be pretty accurate, if you ask me.

And to answer your point on democracy, any future changes to EU structure, etc, would need to be approved by each member state. In the past (in the UK) this has been done at parliamentary level. That's how things should work in a parliamentary democracy, so that's fine by me.

What about asking the people if they still want to be part of the EU when the rules change? That’s what I meant and it’s quite clear as i stated “we get another vote”. However, as per usual, you Remainers go on about democracy, yet what you mean is if the vote goes how you want, then that’s it. It’s settled. Well, that ain’t democracy (and I’ve already said i would be happy for another vote on the outcome of the deal).

Regarding public services and the other emotive stuff you came out with.
We are still recovering from the financial crisis (by we I mean the developed world).
We have huge levels of debt. (Again I mean the developed world).
The UK has had better performance that the rest of the EU for the last 18 months or so and has only just dropped below them, so you’re cherry picking one quarters worth of figures.
The UK has the lowest level of unemployment apart from Japan and Germany I believe.
Most of the new jobs being created are full time and not part-time/zero hours.
The fact interest rates are about to rise is because the economy is doing better and they can think about removing the stimulus of QE/ultra-low interest rates. This is a good thing, as when the next crisis hits, which it will, central banks at this point in time have NO AMMUNITION to fight a crisis. They are maxed out on QE and interest rates.

If you think the EU is in such good shape, why is the ECB still engaged in QE and buying bonds of Italy and Greece. This is unsustainable and at some point it will go belly up. The EURO won’t work without Fiscal transfers and that won’t happen as the Germans don’t want to pay for the skiving Southern countries.

You keep living in cloud cuckoo land, but the EU is inward looking and protectionist and the EURO is destined to fail.

 

[Baldseagull]

View attachment 89614

12 months movement. Not so bad now is it. The only daily movements you should worry about are your bowels.

Not until you compare the EUR/GBP over the same period.

 

[larus]

Not until you compare the EUR/GBP over the same period.

The EURO has been strong, nut the pound has recovered against a basket of currencies. Today, HSBC admitted they were wrong on their projections of parity for GBP/EUR and have raised the levels for GBP vs US$ and EUR.

Howeve, when the shit was kicking off and the piping was dropping (due to uncertainty and not economic performance), we were told by the remainers that the key rate was the US$ rate due to the pricing of commodities etc in US$.

It seems remainders want to cherry pick. Maybe next month they can use Canadian $ rate

 

[larus]

Not until you compare the EUR/GBP over the same period.

Here the Yen chart for 12 months.



As you can see, I’m not cherry picking. GBP has recovered from the knee-jerk market reaction.

 

[Jim in the West]

What about asking the people if they still want to be part of the EU when the rules change? That’s what I meant and it’s quite clear as i stated “we get another vote”. However, as per usual, you Remainers go on about democracy, yet what you mean is if the vote goes how you want, then that’s it. It’s settled. Well, that ain’t democracy (and I’ve already said i would be happy for another vote on the outcome of the deal).

Regarding public services and the other emotive stuff you came out with.
We are still recovering from the financial crisis (by we I mean the developed world).
We have huge levels of debt. (Again I mean the developed world).
The UK has had better performance that the rest of the EU for the last 18 months or so and has only just dropped below them, so you’re cherry picking one quarters worth of figures.
The UK has the lowest level of unemployment apart from Japan and Germany I believe.
Most of the new jobs being created are full time and not part-time/zero hours.
The fact interest rates are about to rise is because the economy is doing better and they can think about removing the stimulus of QE/ultra-low interest rates. This is a good thing, as when the next crisis hits, which it will, central banks at this point in time have NO AMMUNITION to fight a crisis. They are maxed out on QE and interest rates.

If you think the EU is in such good shape, why is the ECB still engaged in QE and buying bonds of Italy and Greece. This is unsustainable and at some point it will go belly up. The EURO won’t work without Fiscal transfers and that won’t happen as the Germans don’t want to pay for the skiving Southern countries.

You keep living in cloud cuckoo land, but the EU is inward looking and protectionist and the EURO is destined to fail.

If you think things are so rosy, then I'm afraid it's you who is living in cloud cuckoo land. Interest rates are definitely NOT going to rise because the economy is doing so well. It's because inflation is rising (which itself is primarily the result of weak sterling - directly caused by the EU referendum outcome). The reasons why the economy hasn't absolutely tanked since June last year are (a) massive levels of QE, and (b) unsustainable levels of private debt. I don't for one moment think the EU is perfect, but it makes a lot more sense for us to use the bargaining power of 500m+ people to secure good deals. On our own we have absolutely zero chance of having a better trading relationship with the rest of the world. And remember, many Brexiteers are happy for us to move to WTO rules, yet completely ignore the fact that it is likely to take MANY years to agree such arrangements. Plus, even outside the EU, every business that wants to trade with the EU will need to comply with EU legislation. I could go on....

 

[Billy the Fish]

I could go on....

.......and on and on for the next 5 hours constantly regurgitating this nonsense! You can, and I'm sure you will

 

[larus]

If you think things are so rosy, then I'm afraid it's you who is living in cloud cuckoo land. Interest rates are definitely NOT going to rise because the economy is doing so well. It's because inflation is rising (which itself is primarily the result of weak sterling - directly caused by the EU referendum outcome). The reasons why the economy hasn't absolutely tanked since June last year are (a) massive levels of QE, and (b) unsustainable levels of private debt. I don't for one moment think the EU is perfect, but it makes a lot more sense for us to use the bargaining power of 500m+ people to secure good deals. On our own we have absolutely zero chance of having a better trading relationship with the rest of the world. And remember, many Brexiteers are happy for us to move to WTO rules, yet completely ignore the fact that it is likely to take MANY years to agree such arrangements. Plus, even outside the EU, every business that wants to trade with the EU will need to comply with EU legislation. I could go on....

Hmm, well as sterling has bounced, then surely this will lead to deflation (or lower inflation). I’m sure you’re aware that inflation is an annual effect, therefore the effect of the sterling depreciation over 12 months ago has now worked through to inflation figures. But, the BoE is predicting inflation at staying above the 2% target for the foreseeable future. Therefore Einstein, this projection of inflation is 100% not the cause of the drop in the pound from last year, as that is a one-off effect of which the impacts wil have been felt already. Sterling has recovered over 10% against the US$ which is the most important currency due to commodities being priced in it. And, this is not the only currency it has gained against. Yes, the EURO has been strong too, but it has still made ground against it too. Don’t hear any more BS about parity now do we. I guess you would have been one of those whingers too bleating on about that ‘risk’.

I suggest you learn more basic economics if you want to start to debate on the matter, as you obviously have a low understanding on this subject.

 

[pastafarian]

If Leavers think democracy is so important, why are they scared of actually putting the final deal to the people? The plain fact is, Brexiteers have absolutely ZERO concern for democracy.

And to answer your point on democracy, any future changes to EU structure, etc, would need to be approved by each member state. In the past (in the UK) this has been done at parliamentary level. That's how things should work in a parliamentary democracy, so that's fine by me.

Parliament has democratically voted on this issue and has decided against (in significant numbers) having another public vote on the issue.
Is this how things "should work in a parliamentary democracy"?, one minute you are in favour and the next you want this parliamentary vote ignored...........someone is confused/desperate

 

[Baldseagull]

The EURO has been strong, nut the pound has recovered against a basket of currencies. Today, HSBC admitted they were wrong on their projections of parity for GBP/EUR and have raised the levels for GBP vs US$ and EUR.

Howeve, when the shit was kicking off and the piping was dropping (due to uncertainty and not economic performance), we were told by the remainers that the key rate was the US$ rate due to the pricing of commodities etc in US$.

It seems remainders want to cherry pick. Maybe next month they can use Canadian $ rate

Well if anyone was cherry picking a currency other than the Euro or Dollar, you would have a point, but they are not, these two are what we do most of our external business in. They both matter.

 

[larus]

Well if anyone was cherry picking a currency other than the Euro or Dollar, you would have a point, but they are not, these two are what we do most of our external business in. They both matter.

The US$ Is more important than the EURO. I agree we do a lot of trade with the Euro area, but Sterling has appreciated against most currencies, some more than others.

Regarding the cherry picking, this is what we were ‘informed’ but many of the Remainers. We were told that the drop vs US$ was important due to Oil and other commodities being priced in US$. I’m just pointing out what remainers were saying last year.

 

[Baldseagull]

Here the Yen chart for 12 months.

View attachment 89615

As you can see, I’m not cherry picking. GBP has recovered from the knee-jerk market reaction.

OOH nice, have a look at 2 years so it includes pre referendum. We are not back to where we were, and we have not even done it yet.

 

[larus]

OOH nice, have a look at 2 years so it includes pre referendum. We are not back to where we were, and we have not even done it yet.

Look at 10 years Yen then. In a reasonable band since 2008.