[Politics] Brexit

[pastafarian]

Dan Hannan.

https://www.conservativehome.com/th...gle-market-access-are-not-the-same-thing.html

I wouldn’t bother JC.
The intricacies of Mr Hannan are lost on most remainers as they simply like to extrapolate a few words and fit them to their agenda.
When he talks of a new free trade agreement with the EU(as he often does) and absolutely no one is talking about threatening our place in the single market, they see that as him saying we should stay as members of the single market. The first question they should be asking which they never do is why if you remain as members of the single market are you seeking a new trade agreement with it anyway…ummm you don’t need a new trade agreement with it if you stay as members…they cant grasp a new agreement is because we are no longer members of it.

They will usually come back with he mentioned Norway and Switzerland, ergo he wants us to be the same as Norway or Switzerland……and take that out of context as well.

He was very clear when he wrote about those two.(before the referendum)

“Sheesh, europhiles, how many times? No British Eurosceptic is suggesting that we precisely mimic Norway’s relationship with the EU. Norway’s deal is better than full membership; Switzerland’s is better than Norway’s; but the United Kingdom, being a larger market, as well as an existing member, can expect better terms than either.”
………
“The Britain Stronger in Europe (BSE) campaign has latched onto a new tactic: to pretend that the only alternative to EU membership is Norway, and then line up some Norwegian Eurozealots to pooh-pooh that option.”

“So, to summarise, Norway has a much better deal than the UK, but Switzerland’s is better yet. There is no reason why, after Brexit, we shouldn’t get an even more attractive arrangement. We are 65 million people to Norway’s five million and Switzerland’s eight million. We run a massive trade deficit with the EU (but a surplus with the rest of the world).”

“To be clear, both Norway and Switzerland are inspiring, beautiful, freedom-loving countries”
……………………...”Their deal with the EU would be a big improvement on where we are now; but we can realistically expect to do far, far better.”

Full Article
https://www.conservativehome.com/th...er-but-we-could-do-even-better-than-that.html


Its astonishing how many of them quote Hannan and spread their echo chamber out of context quotes but never obviously bother to read his full transcripts………….when you are desperate I suppose you will cling onto anything.


Doesn’t matter how many times you write his line….
“Repeat after me. Single market membership and single market access are not the same thing.”
There are a bunch of remainers that still dont get it and are still perplexed by this obvious fact

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

So there now appears to be a common voice in government ranks - a transition period during which we stay in the Customs Union. I think that there is now almost a (forget Mr Farage) consensus that a cliff-edge withdrawal from this - with goods piling up around Dover - as nearly unthinkable. So let's say a transition period is a negotiated. It would give UK the ability to run around the world fixing up the favourable trade deals that Brexiteers get so excited about but about which many of us have been sceptical. So far so good. But hang on - while we do this this our former friends in the EU could well be forgiven for thinking that the new UK trade deals will - by being set-up outside of the Common External Tariff - in effect undercut all the deals that EU countries have already got with 3rd party countries. In effect 'we' will be pinching 'their' markets.
Well all is fair in love, war and trade but we can't expect them to smile and let this happen without extracting quite a price from us - it's just in their best interests. And the last folk who should be least surprised at this should be the Bexiteers as they have as a reflex tended to define UK interests and EU interest as divergent and opposed. So we will soon be seeing how things change when this really is the case - and it won't be pretty. We can hardly 'blame' them for acting in a way that we (or some of us) have been portraying them for the last 50 years or so?

 

[beorhthelm]

...It would give UK the ability to run around the world fixing up the favourable trade deals that Brexiteers get so excited about but about which many of us have been sceptical. So far so good. But hang on - while we do this this our former friends in the EU could well be forgiven for thinking that the new UK trade deals will - by being set-up outside of the Common External Tariff - in effect undercut all the deals that EU countries have already got with 3rd party countries. In effect 'we' will be pinching 'their' markets.

i can see what your getting at but you've over looked that EU countries dont currently have deals with non-EU countries. arrangements that EU holds with non-EU countries are not sophisticated trade deals either. its inherently a protectionist group, designed to keep out importers and protect native industry and commerce from cheaper products. they are simply not going to run around the world trying to undercut UK deals in the process undercutting their own domestic industry and commerce. there is a third point, that most of the EU countries dont export much beyond Europe anyway.

 

[nicko31]

i can see what your getting at but you've over looked that EU countries dont currently have deals with non-EU countries. arrangements that EU holds with non-EU countries are not sophisticated trade deals either. its inherently a protectionist group, designed to keep out importers and protect native industry and commerce from cheaper products. they are simply not going to run around the world trying to undercut UK deals in the process undercutting their own domestic industry and commerce. there is a third point, that most of the EU countries dont export much beyond Europe anyway.

I think its highly that we're told to go whistle, there is no way the EU27 will agree to a sexed up transitional arrangement that will put them at a disadvantage.

At the end of the day its not really our decision, unless we crash out and even the dimmest of Brexiteers are starting to realise that's a non-starter

 

[beorhthelm]

I think its highly that we're told to go whistle, there is no way the EU27 will agree to a sexed up transitional arrangement that will put them at a disadvantage.

At the end of the day its not really our decision, unless we crash out and even the dimmest of Brexiteers are starting to realise that's a non-starter

allowing a period for us to make negotiations with other countries while retaining existing arrangements with the EU does not put them at a disadvantage as we'll be out of their customs union post transition.

 

[nicko31]

allowing a period for us to make negotiations with other countries while retaining existing arrangements with the EU does not put them at a disadvantage as we'll be out of their customs union post transition.

Pay contributions? ECJ?

 

[Two Professors]

Eurozone industrial output down 0.6%, Germany down 1.1%, France down 1.2%, Ireland down a whopping 7.5% ... must be that strong Euro working its magic.

Oh dear,how sad,never mind!

 

[nicko31]

Oh dear,how sad,never mind!

You think that will work to our benefit? Or doesn't it just make you feel better?

Bureau to change at Gatwick offering less than a Euro to the pound, you still feeling better?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Very timely and excellent news for Merkel. Hot off the press.

"The German economy extended its growth spurt in the second quarter, playing into the hands of Angela Merkel as she bids for a fourth term as chancellor."

"In the second quarter, growth was driven by domestic demand, the statistics office said. Consumers and the government significantly stepped up spending. Investment in equipment and construction also increased from the previous three months. Trade damped economic output as imports rose considerably faster than exports, according to the report."

"The unemployment rate is very low, the economy has done very well"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nds-growth-spurt-as-nation-heads-for-election

 

[Two Professors]

You think that will work to our benefit? Or doesn't it just make you feel better?

Bureau to change at Gatwick offering less than a Euro to the pound, you still feeling better?

Oh dear,how sad,never mind!

Good luck with the new album.

 

[BigGully]

Very timely and excellent news for Merkel. Hot off the press.

"The German economy extended its growth spurt in the second quarter, playing into the hands of Angela Merkel as she bids for a fourth term as chancellor."

"In the second quarter, growth was driven by domestic demand, the statistics office said. Consumers and the government significantly stepped up spending. Investment in equipment and construction also increased from the previous three months. Trade damped economic output as imports rose considerably faster than exports, according to the report."

"The unemployment rate is very low, the economy has done very well"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nds-growth-spurt-as-nation-heads-for-election

Interestingly you have chosen to ignore that it also states that the growth of 0.6% is down from the projected 0.7%, whilst the Euro extended its decline down 0.2%, although it seems that an appreciation overall of the Euro of 12% this year is expected to hinder future growth, quite telling it also states 'the economy has done very well particularly by the euro-zone standards' so it hardly is an EU wide phenomenon that should be used as some qualification to remain a member of it and you again choose not to offer some quasi forecast to undermine these figures which you continually do when the UK might post up some good economic data.

So I will do it for you: 'purchasing managers’ index signalled that growth may be levelling off as companies hit capacity constraints and a stronger currency begins to bite. ' and for more balance: 'If you look at the PMI as the first leading indicator it signals that some sort of plateau has been reached.”'

Also worth noting that German growth seems to have been driven by consumer and government spending, which you Remainers saw as detrimental to our recent growth figures, but you then chose to ignore it when you see it in your favour.

It also states that German growth was damped due to imports rising considerably faster than exports, another consequence of an over valued Euro perhaps.

So although I happen to agree that it seems robust economic data from Germany, you chose not to be so critical choosing the favourable headline figure of GDP at 0.6% above anything else, whilst not offering the critical analysis that you always lend to UK economic data.

 

[The Clamp]

Whichever side you fall on I'd dare to say all markets are going to be up and down for the foreseeable but that aside, as a genuine and general question to all, well two questions. One to Leave voters, one to remain:

After Brexit what do you think, day to day will be better?

After Brexit what do you think, day to day will be worse?

 

[beorhthelm]

Pay contributions? ECJ?

i would expect so during the transition.

 

[nicko31]

Oh dear,how sad,never mind!

Good luck with the new album.

Title track - Highway to hell...

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Interestingly you have chosen to ignore that it also states that the growth of 0.6% is down from the projected 0.7%, whilst the Euro extended its decline down 0.2%, although it seems that an appreciation overall of the Euro of 12% this year is expected to hinder future growth, quite telling it also states 'the economy has done very well particularly by the euro-zone standards' so it hardly is an EU wide phenomenon that should be used as some qualification to remain a member of it and you again choose not to offer some quasi forecast to undermine these figures which you continually do when the UK might post up some good economic data.

So I will do it for you: 'purchasing managers’ index signalled that growth may be levelling off as companies hit capacity constraints and a stronger currency begins to bite. ' and for more balance: 'If you look at the PMI as the first leading indicator it signals that some sort of plateau has been reached.”'

Also worth noting that German growth seems to have been driven by consumer and government spending, which you Remainers saw as detrimental to our recent growth figures, but you then chose to ignore it when you see it in your favour.

It also states that German growth was damped due to imports rising considerably faster than exports, another consequence of an over valued Euro perhaps.

So although I happen to agree that it seems robust economic data from Germany, you chose not to be so critical choosing the favourable headline figure of GDP at 0.6% above anything else, whilst not offering the critical analysis that you always lend to UK economic data.

1) You comment about the projected growth is bizarre. Someone projected it would be 0.7 and the reality was different to this prediction. I predicted we'd lose 3-0 on Saturday. We didn't. Who's wrong?
2) I never said anything about it being a "EU wide phenomena" and it clearly isn't.
3) "German growth seems to have been driven by consumer and government spending, which you Remainers saw as detrimental to our recent growth figures," - British consumer spending is fuelled by credit cards (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38534238) which is a recipe for disaster ....like we saw in 2007. German consumer spending is driven by confidence and being in the black. Two very different things. The government are loaded as well so they're quite happy to lay down the Euros where it's needed like a shiny new tram system outside my apartment; I can now save 5 minutes of shoe-leather every day as the tram delivers me safely and cheaply when I'm in need of refreshment.
4) Doesn't fit my pro-EU agenda

 

[nicko31]

Interestingly you have chosen to ignore that it also states that the growth of 0.6% is down from the projected 0.7%, whilst the Euro extended its decline down 0.2%, although it seems that an appreciation overall of the Euro of 12% this year is expected to hinder future growth, quite telling it also states 'the economy has done very well particularly by the euro-zone standards' so it hardly is an EU wide phenomenon that should be used as some qualification to remain a member of it and you again choose not to offer some quasi forecast to undermine these figures which you continually do when the UK might post up some good economic data.

So I will do it for you: 'purchasing managers’ index signalled that growth may be levelling off as companies hit capacity constraints and a stronger currency begins to bite. ' and for more balance: 'If you look at the PMI as the first leading indicator it signals that some sort of plateau has been reached.”'

Also worth noting that German growth seems to have been driven by consumer and government spending, which you Remainers saw as detrimental to our recent growth figures, but you then chose to ignore it when you see it in your favour.

It also states that German growth was damped due to imports rising considerably faster than exports, another consequence of an over valued Euro perhaps.

So although I happen to agree that it seems robust economic data from Germany, you chose not to be so critical choosing the favourable headline figure of GDP at 0.6% above anything else, whilst not offering the critical analysis that you always lend to UK economic data.

Think you must be in the pub, German growth is probably be double us in 2017

And who do you think will perform better over the next year, and the year after that?

As for the Euro its not that overvalued, it was way stronger against the USD 3 years ago. I'm afraid its the GBP is just discounted due to massive uncertainty. Still As I've said, Brexit is boom time for rich people with lots of offshore assets

 

[nicko31]

Welcome to fantasy land

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40922177

Yep. as expected...

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

The Customs Union issue is now the hot topic. The clip below is produced by the 'experts' (oops - dirty word) at the University of Sussex. I think it clarifies some of the technical issues and in effect argues that even if UK somehow stayed in the (or a) customs union that there's still be some rather unfortunate impacts on UK-EU trade. Of course this could be solved by brilliant negotiations but there are some real practical difficulties even if we take the ideologies out of it. It only last few minutes.

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/41148

 

[BigGully]

1) You comment about the projected growth is bizarre. Someone projected it would be 0.7 and the reality was different to this prediction. I predicted we'd lose 3-0 on Saturday. We didn't. Who's wrong?
2) I never said anything about it being a "EU wide phenomena" and it clearly isn't.
3) "German growth seems to have been driven by consumer and government spending, which you Remainers saw as detrimental to our recent growth figures," - British consumer spending is fuelled by credit cards (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38534238) which is a recipe for disaster ....like we saw in 2007. German consumer spending is driven by confidence and being in the black. Two very different things. The government are loaded as well so they're quite happy to lay down the Euros where it's needed like a shiny new tram system outside my apartment.
4) Doesn't fit my pro-EU agenda

Firstly I stated that this is a decent set of data, but its far from perfect and says absolutely nothing about the EU and its virtues, its the Brexit thread after all.

Its also clear that I am not trying to be negative about the performance of the German economy, that would be daft, my point is that you and other Remainers would dissect these figures differently if it were UK posting similar figures, you will not accept any morsel of positive economic data from the UK, whilst cooing over anything that might occur elsewhere.

How you can seriously say that forecasting is irrelevant when it's any Remainer favoured weapon, whether it be inflation, growth, sterling, you name it it is all going to happen to the UK when we leave is quite something, you then dismiss the forecast that the German economy might be plateauing and pretend it hasn't been said.

The consumer UK/Germany comparison is a prime example you post up your link from the BBC after UK data showed consumer spending positively impacting on the UK's growth, the link encompasses figures by a report from the TUC, it is quickly discredited as inflated figures anyway and hardly impartial even if accurate, but the only impartial piece seems to be from the Bank of England and it clearly states this:

Nevertheless, officials at the Bank have indicated they are not that worried about debt levels at the moment. 'Interest rates are still very low, and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future, so there are fewer concerns on debt servicing than there were in the past," said Andy Haldane, the Bank's chief economist, last week. that shouldn't disqualify the growth set of data posted up at that time for the UK, but you think it should.

 

[Two Professors]

Not everything is as rosy in Germany as some people like to make out.Air Berlin have finally lost so much money that even Etihad will not bail them out any more.Don't think they were helped by the utter shambles that is Berlin Brandenburg airport,their purported operations centre.Fine example of EU supported corruption and incompetence,if anybody wants a good laugh,since 2006,and still not open!