[Politics] Brexit

[Herr Tubthumper]

Can we listen to the experts now?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ohnson-brexit-britain-worse-off-a7798551.html

If we are to listen to anyone it's him. He's single handedly kept you guys out the shit for the past year. He can't keep proping up the economy though.

 

[The Clamp]

I do wonder if Article 50 is really just an illusion of the ability to leave the EU.

It's starting to look like the EU will refuse point blank on any meaningful negotiation for the next two years in order to leave us with a choice between as much disruption as possible or cancelling the leave process.

Basically you can't leave the EU and we're all locked into this political system. I actually don't give a f**k anymore if we stay or leave, I voted with my conscience and voted to leave a political system that I believe is fundamentally flawed.
Our government and opposition are so shit that they'll make a pigs ear of it anyway. We'll go through this sham negotiation and in two years we'll end up remaining part of the EU, even if they have to change the title slightly to allow everyone to save face.

Sounds about right.

 

[beorhthelm]

I do wonder if Article 50 is really just an illusion of the ability to leave the EU.

absolutely this. it was commented on by some greybeards last year, that for such an important matter its a very short clause and raised many questions - such as can you negotiate trade while negotiating exit. logic says yes, stakeholders say no, Article 50 doesn't give any guidance.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Yep. This. We aren't getting any deals. We're getting a whopping great bill. That's why May isn't fussed about the negotiations, she knows they are pointless.

Well if the EU won't do any deals then we just leave and throw their bill in the bin.

 

[wellquickwoody]

Is that like the 4.5k it will cost everybody lie put out by remain

Now that is clutching at straws! Enjoy the ride Brexitiers, you built it.

 

[ManOfSussex]

The Queen's causing a bit of a stir with her colours in her choice of attire today.

 

[CHAPPERS]

The Queen's causing a bit of a stir with her colours in her choice of attire today.

View attachment 86484

Wonder how much we could get for that crown.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Wonder how much we could get for that crown.

£350m perhaps?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The Queen's causing a bit of a stir with her colours in her choice of attire today.

View attachment 86484

Top trolling by The Queen.

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

 

[hans kraay fan club]

The Queen's causing a bit of a stir with her colours in her choice of attire today.

View attachment 86484

Top trolling by The Queen.

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

Love it. There is NO way on earth, that Ma'am's hat, just accidently looks just like the EU flag.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Love it. There is NO way on earth, that Ma'am's hat, just accidently looks just like the EU flag.

You don't think she woke up and innocently said "tell you what, today you can pop the crown on a cushion and I'll pick something random out of the wardrobe"

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Well if the EU won't do any deals then we just leave and throw their bill in the bin.

You realise that will do more harm than good, they can then refuse to deal with us in trade full stop witch will be a nightmare, it will also affect our credit rating and any future trade deals elsewhere if they open a dispute.

We have absolutely no other choice than pay what ever they want.

I hope it is starting to dawn on people our negotiating position is terrible at best.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I hope it is starting to dawn on people our negotiating position is terrible at best.

DD's haunted expression and deranged hair when he came out of the first day's negotiations suggest it is starting to dawn on him. I suppose his efforts to get Keir Starmer involved are a way of spreading the load a bit. I hope the Labour Party stands clear from this mess. The whole madcap stunt was dreamt up by factions in the nether reaches of the Tory Party and they can deal with it. "Brexit: proven to make us poorer" - try selling that to anyone beyond the internet shouters and blue rinse party members and see how far it gets you.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

You realise that will do more harm than good, they can then refuse to deal with us in trade full stop witch will be a nightmare, it will also affect our credit rating and any future trade deals elsewhere if they open a dispute.

We have absolutely no other choice than pay what ever they want.

I hope it is starting to dawn on people our negotiating position is terrible at best.

Well Lord Kerr, who wrote Article 50, disagrees with you. He has been quite clear that there is no mechanism in the Treaty to allow for an exit charge - the EU have no legal capability to enforce payment. They can present a bill and ask us to pay it but there would need to be something in it for us to do so. The EU also have a problem - their 100bn estimate, even if it can be believed, is the sum of all our agreed commitments such as agreed EU budgets, pension payments etc. They conveniently didn't include the UK's share of EU assets.

There is no way they will refuse to trade with us full stop. Germany may be able to afford for us not to buy their cars but most of the economies rely on us - Greece for example isn't going to support a complete trade ban, it needs the money it gets from us from tourism. Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France have economies that are struggling so they're also unlikely to agree to a total trade block. And don't forget, all 27 members have to agree to a trade block for it to happen.

So, the EU can ask for whatever amount it likes it can't enforce it and it would be very difficult for it to get agreement for a trade block. That means they need to negotiate to have any hope to extracting money from the UK.

 

[beorhthelm]

You realise that will do more harm than good, they can then refuse to deal with us in trade full stop witch will be a nightmare, it will also affect our credit rating and any future trade deals elsewhere if they open a dispute.

We have absolutely no other choice than pay what ever they want.

what ever they want? and i suppose that applies if we stay in too? the headline "bill" features a number of items for which there is not any previous mention of or treaty obligations. pay for the remaining budget (to upto 2020 iirc), pensions possibly (should already be paid for - EU running an unfunded pension then?), contingent liabilities if they arise. the rest of the ~70bn claimed is trying it on, we're paying and the budget should cover everything.

or, the size of the bill is an indication of future increase to members contributions to cover unseen cost and budget expansions.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

what ever they want? and i suppose that applies if we stay in too? the headline "bill" features a number of items for which there is not any previous mention of or treaty obligations. pay for the remaining budget (to upto 2020 iirc), pensions possibly (should already be paid for - EU running an unfunded pension then?), contingent liabilities if they arise. the rest of the ~70bn claimed is trying it on, we're paying and the budget should cover everything.

or, the size of the bill is an indication of future increase to members contributions to cover unseen cost and budget expansions.

We are now in a position where we are screwed either way - leave get slammed with a massive bill and worse trade deals.

Go back in and we are going to be in a worse position than we found ourselves before exiting.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Well Lord Kerr, who wrote Article 50, disagrees with you. He has been quite clear that there is no mechanism in the Treaty to allow for an exit charge - the EU have no legal capability to enforce payment. They can present a bill and ask us to pay it but there would need to be something in it for us to do so. The EU also have a problem - their 100bn estimate, even if it can be believed, is the sum of all our agreed commitments such as agreed EU budgets, pension payments etc. They conveniently didn't include the UK's share of EU assets.

There is no way they will refuse to trade with us full stop. Germany may be able to afford for us not to buy their cars but most of the economies rely on us - Greece for example isn't going to support a complete trade ban, it needs the money it gets from us from tourism. Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France have economies that are struggling so they're also unlikely to agree to a total trade block. And don't forget, all 27 members have to agree to a trade block for it to happen.

So, the EU can ask for whatever amount it likes it can't enforce it and it would be very difficult for it to get agreement for a trade block. That means they need to negotiate to have any hope to extracting money from the UK.

If we didnt need them we would have already laughed at them at walked away.

There is 27 countries to help support any loss (which they will to make it look better on the EU if need be) and we are on our own.

We will miss 27 countries more than they will miss the one.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

DD's haunted expression and deranged hair when he came out of the first day's negotiations suggest it is starting to dawn on him. I suppose his efforts to get Keir Starmer involved are a way of spreading the load a bit. I hope the Labour Party stands clear from this mess. The whole madcap stunt was dreamt up by factions in the nether reaches of the Tory Party and they can deal with it. "Brexit: proven to make us poorer" - try selling that to anyone beyond the internet shouters and blue rinse party members and see how far it gets you.

They will never admit it, but I think Labour will be quite happy they did not win the election.

 

[Mellotron]

You realise that will do more harm than good, they can then refuse to deal with us in trade full stop witch will be a nightmare, it will also affect our credit rating and any future trade deals elsewhere if they open a dispute.

We have absolutely no other choice than pay what ever they want.

I hope it is starting to dawn on people our negotiating position is terrible at best.

I really can't fathom why anyone thought it would be any other way. In a divorce, if you're the one wanting to end it, you're not the one deciding the terms.

 

[nigeyb]

British delegation arriving in Brussels for Brexit talks on 19 June 2017