[Politics] Brexit

[5ways]

Oh given time I expect they would.

There you go again reverting to this hard/soft brexit meaningless terminollogy. A tedious construct of remainers trying for a 2nd prize half in option.

Put simply the government and the EU understood that a vote to leave the EU meant we would leave the EU. No cherry picking .. it meant leaving the internal/single market, customs union and ending free movement . They have been rightly astonished at the lengths some people have gone to thwart or undermine this process while claiming to fully respect the result.

Fortunately the undemocratic loons have been seen off.

It did not mean that. Leavers were asked many times what type of exit they would like, WTO, Swiss model, Norway model, Turkey model. Leavers refused to actually set out a position beyond wanting to leave full stop. What Brexit would actually look like was not spelled out to us by the leave camp, they made it up as they went along. Now, clearly, they have no idea what they're doing and hardly an idea of what they want. Will we end free movement? maybe. Will we leave the single market? maybe. Will we leave the customs union? maybe.

 

[5ways]

https://reader.chathamhouse.org/fut...6536#how-extensive-is-the-public-elite-divide

For the EU nerds (on both sides of the debate), Chatham House released this report today. They interviewed 10,000 members of the public in 10 EU countries, and 1800 "elites" (love that word) defined as individuals in positions of influence. Timing was December 2016 to February 2017, so post Brexit but pre Macron.

Quoting from the summary

The data reveal a continent split along three lines. First, there is a divide between elites and the public. There is alignment between the two groups in their attitudes to, among other things, EU solidarity, EU democracy and a sense of European identity. However, the data also show an important divide in general attitudes, beliefs and life experiences. The elite are more likely to experience the benefits of EU integration and are more liberal and optimistic. Meanwhile, there is simmering discontent within the public, large sections of whom view the EU in negative terms, want to see it return some powers to member states, and feel anxious over the effects of immigration. Only 34% of the public feel they have benefited from the EU, compared with 71% of the elite. A majority of the public (54%) think their country was a better place to live 20 years ago.


Second, within the public, there is a pronounced divide between more liberal and authoritarian-minded groups, particularly on issues of identity. This divide plays a much stronger role than other measures, such as economic status or experience of social hardship, in shaping attitudes towards the EU. The political challenges resulting from this divide are likely to persist for many years, even after economic growth is restored and sustained.

Third, there is a lack of consensus among the elite on important questions about the EU’s direction. While the elite overwhelmingly feel they have benefited from the EU, they are far from united in their attitudes to further integration. Contrary to assumptions that the elite are pro-integration, 28% support the status quo, 37% think the EU should get more powers, and 31% think the EU should return powers to member states. More oppose than support the eventual creation of a ‘United States of Europe’, although there is support for deeper eurozone integration.

Within the body of the report I thought this was interesting. There's a symmetry to the table that indicates the elites and the public are somewhat at odds. (I believe the UK responses were not included in this section as not relevant)

View attachment 86472

Anyway, for anybody who might be interested.

Links into the whole 'Anywheres vs Somewheres' idea. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/anywheres-vs-somewheres-split-made-brexit-inevitable

 

[Baldseagull]

I seem to remember you were a fully signed up ever closer union chap and that is the utimate goal of the EU. A few treaty adjustments and policy changes (you make it sound so simple) doesn't address that underlying point. Plus of course despite the ongoing Eurozone crisis (still bubbling away), migrant crisis, rise in extremism ... no significant reform or change of direction. They are clearly heading down the same track come what may .. a majority of the UK population wants to get off.

That was nice of them giving us a temporary window allowing us to control a small part of EU migration. Shame our elected representatives didn't have the power to reverse or alleviate the impact of that decision. Perhaps if we had full control of our borders back then we wouldnt be overly reliant on cheap EU Labour.

A few treaty adjustments and policy changes would be a lot simpler than leaving the EU. Give any Politician a choice of five years to get something done inside the EU, or safely remove the UK from the EU and create a happy and prosperous Britain, and I bet even BoJo and Gove would prefer the task of reforms from within.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Oh given time I expect they would.

There you go again reverting to this hard/soft brexit meaningless terminollogy. A tedious construct of remainers trying for a 2nd prize half in option.

Put simply the government and the EU understood that a vote to leave the EU... meant leaving the internal/single market, customs union and ending free movement .

Fortunately the undemocratic loons have been seen off.

Baloney. A vote to leave the EU meant what it said on the tin. And even that is starting to look excessive given a Leave campaign leader has just admitted that without the £350m to the NHS lie they would not have won.

 

[portslade seagull]

Baloney. A vote to leave the EU meant what it said on the tin. And even that is starting to look excessive given a Leave campaign leader has just admitted that without the £350m to the NHS lie they would not have won.

Is that like the 4.5k it will cost everybody lie put out by remain

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Is that like the 4.5k it will cost everybody lie put out by remain

The point is that the Director of Vote Leave has admitted that they won because they lied, and if they hadn't lied they wouldn't have won.

Regarding the £4.5k, give it time - the situation is developing.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

It did not mean that. Leavers were asked many times what type of exit they would like, WTO, Swiss model, Norway model, Turkey model. Leavers refused to actually set out a position beyond wanting to leave full stop. What Brexit would actually look like was not spelled out to us by the leave camp, they made it up as they went along. Now, clearly, they have no idea what they're doing and hardly an idea of what they want. Will we end free movement? maybe. Will we leave the single market? maybe. Will we leave the customs union? maybe.

Baloney. A vote to leave the EU meant what it said on the tin. And even that is starting to look excessive given a Leave campaign leader has just admitted that without the £350m to the NHS lie they would not have won.

Nah your right the only people that said leaving would mean ending Single market membership were numerous leading players on the leave side, the then Prime Minister, Chancellor and the EU Obviously the whole point of the 'Take back control' campaign was to remain in the internal market, keep free movement and not have the freedom to make our own trade deals plus of course continue with EU law primacy and paying lots of wonga to Brussels.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

A few treaty adjustments and policy changes would be a lot simpler than leaving the EU. Give any Politician a choice of five years to get something done inside the EU, or safely remove the UK from the EU and create a happy and prosperous Britain, and I bet even BoJo and Gove would prefer the task of reforms from within.

You haven't been paying attention. The EU doesn't do treaty adjustments/ policy changes unless it smoothes the way to their ultimate goal. Which is why there is so much disullisonment across Europe. You would lose your bet.

 

[Mental Lental]

This petition should have Brexiteers foaming at the mouth.......

https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/no_deal_no_brexit_loc/?rc=fb&pv=88

 

[GT49er]

This petition should have Brexiteers foaming at the mouth.......

https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/no_deal_no_brexit_loc/?rc=fb&pv=88

A bunch of saddoes who don't like the result of the referendum. Why would anyone foam at the mouth about them?

 

[Mental Lental]

A bunch of saddoes who don't like the result of the referendum. Why would anyone foam at the mouth about them?

Would be an interesting situation though. I can imagine the course of the negotiations essentially boiling down to this:

Tories: "Ok EU we're leaving. The people have spoken."
EU: "Ok."
Tories: "What kind of deal can we get on leaving?"
EU: "Nope no deals. Stay or go. Here's the bill for leaving....."
*Tories read bill*
Tories: "B-b-b-but this bill will effectively cripple our economy beyond all hope of repair!!!!"
EU: "Yes we know. Are you SURE you want to leave? Article 50 is reversible at any time you know."
Tories: "Errrrr........"

 

[studio150]

Nah your right the only people that said leaving would mean ending Single market membership were numerous leading players on the leave side, the then Prime Minister, Chancellor and the EU Obviously the whole point of the 'Take back control' campaign was to remain in the internal market, keep free movement and not have the freedom to make our own trade deals plus of course continue with EU law primacy and paying lots of wonga to Brussels.

You mean like with Qatar that Liam Fox has been desperately campaigning to achieve. Might be a tad counter productive now given the isolation of Qatar by many of their neighbours.

 

[ManOfSussex]

How are the Tories going to get the best possible Brexit deal/Brexit means Brexit/Red White and Blue Brexit etc and do free trade deals with Swaziland when they can't even do a deal with The DUP.

 

[Jim in the West]

In amongst all the spurious reasons for leaving ("Take back control" etc), even the immigration argument was totally spurious...

https://twitter.com/rodriguez_pose/status/877436947203072000

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

How are the Tories going to get the best possible Brexit deal/Brexit means Brexit/Red White and Blue Brexit etc and do free trade deals with Swaziland when they can't even do a deal with The DUP.

 

[The Clamp]

Would be an interesting situation though. I can imagine the course of the negotiations essentially boiling down to this:

Tories: "Ok EU we're leaving. The people have spoken."
EU: "Ok."
Tories: "What kind of deal can we get on leaving?"
EU: "Nope no deals. Stay or go. Here's the bill for leaving....."
*Tories read bill*
Tories: "B-b-b-but this bill will effectively cripple our economy beyond all hope of repair!!!!"
EU: "Yes we know. Are you SURE you want to leave? Article 50 is reversible at any time you know."
Tories: "Errrrr........"

Yep. This. We aren't getting any deals. We're getting a whopping great bill. That's why May isn't fussed about the negotiations, she knows they are pointless.

 

[Jim in the West]

Nah your right the only people that said leaving would mean ending Single market membership were numerous leading players on the leave side, the then Prime Minister, Chancellor and the EU Obviously the whole point of the 'Take back control' campaign was to remain in the internal market, keep free movement and not have the freedom to make our own trade deals plus of course continue with EU law primacy and paying lots of wonga to Brussels.

The architect of the whole Brexit campaign (over 20+ years) was Daniel Hannan. Even he advocates the Swiss model, where you pay to have access to the Single Market, and allow free movement of EU nationals.

 

[SK1NT]

Can we listen to the experts now?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ohnson-brexit-britain-worse-off-a7798551.html

 

[Pinkie Brown]

You mean like with Qatar that Liam Fox has been desperately campaigning to achieve. Might be a tad counter productive now given the isolation of Qatar by many of their neighbours.

Well in fairness, he also sounded out Duterte in the Philippines whilst Mayhem has sucked up to the Saudi's and Erdogan. Kim Jong & Mugabe rolling out the red carpet soon.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Would be an interesting situation though. I can imagine the course of the negotiations essentially boiling down to this:

Tories: "Ok EU we're leaving. The people have spoken."
EU: "Ok."
Tories: "What kind of deal can we get on leaving?"
EU: "Nope no deals. Stay or go. Here's the bill for leaving....."
*Tories read bill*
Tories: "B-b-b-but this bill will effectively cripple our economy beyond all hope of repair!!!!"
EU: "Yes we know. Are you SURE you want to leave? Article 50 is reversible at any time you know."
Tories: "Errrrr........"

Yep. This. We aren't getting any deals. We're getting a whopping great bill. That's why May isn't fussed about the negotiations, she knows they are pointless.

I do wonder if Article 50 is really just an illusion of the ability to leave the EU.

It's starting to look like the EU will refuse point blank on any meaningful negotiation for the next two years in order to leave us with a choice between as much disruption as possible or cancelling the leave process.

Basically you can't leave the EU and we're all locked into this political system. I actually don't give a f**k anymore if we stay or leave, I voted with my conscience and voted to leave a political system that I believe is fundamentally flawed.
Our government and opposition are so shit that they'll make a pigs ear of it anyway. We'll go through this sham negotiation and in two years we'll end up remaining part of the EU, even if they have to change the title slightly to allow everyone to save face.