[Politics] Brexit

[Titanic]

YouGov poll shows 70% agree that UK should now leave the EU.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Where's the option for a ratification referendum? I would argue that the actual deal should have been presented to the public, not just the ridiculous ambiguous yes/no referendum.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Labour managed to nullify the Brexit debate (and attract a big segment of UKIP voters) by promising to end free movement which they know means leaving membership of the single market.
If a majority vote to leave plus over 80% voting for parties committed to Brexit, ending free movement, exiting the single market/customs union doesn't matter I don't think the mood of the public should suddenly become significant now.

You and me might be interested in the subject, but I wonder if you aren't overstating the voting public's enthusiasm? There were an awful lot of things that encouraged people to vote Labour other than its stance on Brexit. Certainly if I was a Brexit enthusiast I would regard the Tories as being far safer on the subject and would have voted accordingly. The assumption that most people, particularly young people, who voted Labour did so in spite of rather than because of its position on Brexit seems reasonable.

Your point about 80 per cent of people voting for exit-the-single-market parties is similar. That doesn't suggest that 80 per cent of us want to leave the single market any more than the fact that because everyone voted for parties against capital punishment they must all disapprove of hanging.

The outcome of the election, and the current convulsions in the Tory Party, arise from the perception that the public is moving against a hard Brexit. If that becomes more pronounced then the position of the Labour Party might shift. Will that happen? Neither of us knows right now.

 

[Titanic]

Where's the option for a ratification referendum? I would argue that the actual deal should have been presented to the public, not just the ridiculous ambiguous yes/no referendum.

In the 21% "seek to overturn it in a second referendum"

 

[CHAPPERS]

In the 21% "seek to overturn it in a second referendum"

Good point, well presented.

 

[beorhthelm]

Where's the option for a ratification referendum? I would argue that the actual deal should have been presented to the public, not just the ridiculous ambiguous yes/no referendum.

its March 2019, we have the "ratification referendum" and its rejected. what happens next, a) we leave the EU with no deal, or b) we request that Article 50 be revoked and we stay in the EU, or c) we ask nicely for an extension while we renegotiate.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You and me might be interested in the subject, but I wonder if you aren't overstating the voting public's enthusiasm? There were an awful lot of things that encouraged people to vote Labour other than its stance on Brexit. Certainly if I was a Brexit enthusiast I would regard the Tories as being far safer on the subject and would have voted accordingly. The assumption that most people, particularly young people, who voted Labour did so in spite of rather than because of its position on Brexit seems reasonable.

Your point about 80 per cent of people voting for exit-the-single-market parties is similar. That doesn't suggest that 80 per cent of us want to leave the single market any more than the fact that because everyone voted for parties against capital punishment they must all disapprove of hanging.

The outcome of the election, and the current convulsions in the Tory Party, arise from the perception that the public is moving against a hard Brexit. If that becomes more pronounced then the position of the Labour Party might shift. Will that happen? Neither of us knows right now.

I wasn't claiming any specific enthuiastic mandate for types of Brexit just pointing out the publics 'general mood' which you now judged as potentially significant has consistantly shown a majority either clearly in favour of or at the very least content to put up with ending free movement/leaving the single market. The Labour party don't view their position as hard Brexit whereas you apparently do. Makes all these terms rather meaningless if we can't all agree on the definitions.

 

[CHAPPERS]

its March 2019, we have the "ratification referendum" and its rejected. what happens next, a) we leave the EU with no deal, or b) we request that Article 50 be revoked and we stay in the EU, or c) we ask nicely for an extension while we renegotiate.

B, I would have said.

 

[nicko31]

Where's the option for a ratification referendum? I would argue that the actual deal should have been presented to the public, not just the ridiculous ambiguous yes/no referendum.

The way things are unravelling in the economy no one in the leave camp will want an opportunity to ratify any deal, whatever deal we get it won't as good as the one that Mrs.T made all those years ago.

All the indicators are only going in one direction. Retail figures weakest in 4 years, how long till jobs start going?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40285281ago

 

[beorhthelm]

B, I would have said.

so all the EU have to do is stonewall us and we retract Article 50. i do actually think this is their plan, and that of remainers. the trouble is this only gives cause to the leavers to push for the full, no deal option. the problem starts with using qualitative terms "hard" verse "soft", when really "maximum" and "minimum" would be more appropriate.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The way things are unravelling in the economy no one in the leave camp will want an opportunity to ratify any deal, whatever deal we get it won't as good as the one that Mrs.T made all those years ago.

All the indicators are only going in one direction. Retail figures weakest in 4 years, how long till jobs start going?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40285281ago

Might as well give up then.

 

[nicko31]

Might as well give up then.

Many already have, the brain drain has only just started. More than half skilled EU workers plan to leave to be benefit of some place else

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The Labour party don't view their position as hard Brexit whereas you apparently do. Makes all these terms rather meaningless if we can't all agree on the definitions.

I agree with you. As I mentioned my own threshold for a 'hard Brexit' is leaving the single market and/or customs union. I appreciate others have different definitions but this seems to me to be the logical one - it's the point at which the economic and social cost of the exercise will start to seriously affect the lives of ordinary people, and the futures of ordinary children.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Many already have, the brain drain has only just started. More than half skilled EU workers plan to leave to be benefit of some place else

I think this highlights one thing I hope we can both agree on, both parties should have invested in training our own people about 15-20 years ago, then we wouldn't need to employ so many people from abroad. As for half plan on leaving, I think that's just scaremongering, and I don't put anyone leaving the NHS all down to brexit either.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I agree with you. As I mentioned my own threshold for a 'hard Brexit' is leaving the single market and/or customs union. I appreciate others have different definitions but this seems to me to be the logical one - it's the point at which the economic and social cost of the exercise will start to seriously affect the lives of ordinary people, and the futures of ordinary children.

It's hard to judge what the economic and social costs will be until we know what will be negotiated to replace them. If a mutually beneficial deal is reached with minimal disruption/tariffs plus a sensible transition timeframe (if needed) it's entirely plausible 'ordinary' people won't even notice the change.

 

[nicko31]

Looks like Hammonds "warning shot" Mansion House speech has been cancelled. Em...

 

[studio150]

It's hard to judge what the economic and social costs will be until we know what will be negotiated to replace them. If a mutually beneficial deal is reached with minimal disruption/tariffs plus a sensible transition timeframe (if needed) it's entirely plausible 'ordinary' people won't even notice the change.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

It's hard to judge what the economic and social costs will be until we know what will be negotiated to replace them. If a mutually beneficial deal is reached with minimal disruption/tariffs plus a sensible transition timeframe (if needed) it's entirely plausible 'ordinary' people won't even notice the change.

If is the word. You're being spectacularly optimistic if you think we'll come away with a deal so benign that the man in the street won't even notice we've left. But of course you might be right. We don't know for certain. Best if all us ordinary people are asked for our opinions when the deal becomes clear I'd say.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

If is the word. You're being spectacularly optimistic if you think we'll come away with a deal so benign that the man in the street won't even notice we've left. But of course you might be right. We don't know for certain. Best if all us ordinary people are asked for our opinions when the deal becomes clear I'd say.

I only said it was plausible .. as likely to occur as all the apocalyptic scenarios suggested by others.

I thought you weren't a fan of referendums.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Many already have, the brain drain has only just started. More than half skilled EU workers plan to leave to be benefit of some place else

New survey published today - http://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/newsroom/2017/06/brexit-employment-survey/