[Politics] Brexit

[ManOfSussex]

The march to the Supreme Court on December 5th looks like it might be off.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...-is-not-happening_uk_58384cd3e4b0207d191800e1

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-brexit-march-supreme-court-led-by-nigel-farage-postponed-1593471

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...reme-court-far-right-article-50-a7439246.html

 

[studio150]

My financial adviser (an Outer) is surprised that nobody seems to be talking up the 2019 figures and beyond,when even the OBR admit to us being £200 million a week better off.Fair enough ,not the £350 million talked about during the Referendum campaign,but still better in UK's pocket than the wastrels in Brussels!

Is this after the additional borrowing of £58.7bn over the next 5 years which is a direct result of Brexit, (or £225m a week,)

 

[cunning fergus]

Well all I can say is if there are any benefits it is going to take a long time to reep any rewards, if we had voted YES I'm pretty sure we'd be booming now. Instead we have a slow withdrawl of new business investment.

Right now, we have 16 million people with less than £100 in savings in the bank. If you can ride out the pain good for you, but many are less fortunate

How sure can you be that we would be "booming" the UK cannot avoid the wider global environment.........arguably the effect of Trump will have more impact on the UK than Brexit.

The implications of the referendum vote in Italy on the 4/12 could be profound, Italian banks are already in full on crisis mode, the economy is currently tanking, its Govt bonds are heading north and if Renzi loses (then resigns) its possible EZ and EU members may have to assist with a rescue package.

The lesson of Brexit is surely that you can't be sure about anything.

 

[Baldseagull]

What are you drivelling on about?Eu grants are just a portion of our total payment in,being grudgingly given back to us.£200 million pound a week BETTER off after all else is taken into consideration.Look forward to reading your attempt at an answer when I return from hols

OBR say they have assumed any saving on EU contributions will be spent on increased spending by Government, possibly subsidies to Nissan and the like, or maybe as BoJo suggests, the whole lot on the NHS. If the OBR has not factored the EU spend being replaced then the whole £200M a week could go there. So I apologise for stating 100M worse off, I should have said no better off.
Hope you enjoy your holiday, you are fortunate to be able to afford one.

 

[Baldseagull]

How sure can you be that we would be "booming" the UK cannot avoid the wider global environment.........arguably the effect of Trump will have more impact on the UK than Brexit.

The implications of the referendum vote in Italy on the 4/12 could be profound, Italian banks are already in full on crisis mode, the economy is currently tanking, its Govt bonds are heading north and if Renzi loses (then resigns) its possible EZ and EU members may have to assist with a rescue package.

The lesson of Brexit is surely that you can't be sure about anything.

I would be interested to see your argument for Trump in the Whitehouse affecting our economy more than Brexit.

 

[Soulman]

OBR say they have assumed any saving on EU contributions will be spent on increased spending by Government, possibly subsidies to Nissan and the like, or maybe as BoJo suggests, the whole lot on the NHS. If the OBR has not factored the EU spend being replaced then the whole £200M a week could go there. So I apologise for stating 100M worse off, I should have said no better off.
Hope you enjoy your holiday, you are fortunate to be able to afford one.

Ah yes the OBR.........
Robert's own words on the Daily Politics: ''broad assumptions and wait until the fog clears..''
He again admitted there is only a 50% chance of his predictions coming to fruition. How can Hammond build policy on a coin toss?

Budget 2016: Osborne 'has only 50-50 chance' of hitting surplus target

Chancellor will have to raise taxes or make further cuts if OBR downgrades its forecasts again, IFS thinktank says.
From the Guardian no less..........https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...borne-chances-of-delivering-surplus-50-50-ifs


Here is a look at some of the OBR’s past mistakes.
Upgrades at the 2014 Budget

In March 2014, the OBR hiked its forecasts across the board, revealing that the economy was growing far more strongly than it previously anticipated.

Britain would grow by 2.7pc in 2014, the analysts said, well above the 1.8pc figure predicted a year earlier and the sharpest upgrade in decades.
In fact, even that was too low - GDP jumped by 3.1pc over the course of the year.
Consumer spending grew faster than the OBR had predicted, while business investment was also picking up and unemployment was crashing.
It was not only the OBR which was surprised. Mark Carney joined the Bank of England in mid-2013, predicting it would take several years for unemployment to fall below 7pc and for the Bank to start contemplating rate rises.
In fact it took only six months for joblessness to dive below that level as the economy took off. Yet interest rates still haven't been increased. In fact, they were cut again in the wake of the EU vote this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/24/four-times-obr-has-wrong/

I think it might be best to give their "forecasts a swerve myself.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Ah yes the OBR.........
Robert's own words on the Daily Politics: ''broad assumptions and wait until the fog clears..''
He again admitted there is only a 50% chance of his predictions coming to fruition. How can Hammond build policy on a coin toss?

Budget 2016: Osborne 'has only 50-50 chance' of hitting surplus target

Chancellor will have to raise taxes or make further cuts if OBR downgrades its forecasts again, IFS thinktank says.
From the Guardian no less..........https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...borne-chances-of-delivering-surplus-50-50-ifs


Here is a look at some of the OBR’s past mistakes.
Upgrades at the 2014 Budget

In March 2014, the OBR hiked its forecasts across the board, revealing that the economy was growing far more strongly than it previously anticipated.

Britain would grow by 2.7pc in 2014, the analysts said, well above the 1.8pc figure predicted a year earlier and the sharpest upgrade in decades.
In fact, even that was too low - GDP jumped by 3.1pc over the course of the year.
Consumer spending grew faster than the OBR had predicted, while business investment was also picking up and unemployment was crashing.
It was not only the OBR which was surprised. Mark Carney joined the Bank of England in mid-2013, predicting it would take several years for unemployment to fall below 7pc and for the Bank to start contemplating rate rises.
In fact it took only six months for joblessness to dive below that level as the economy took off. Yet interest rates still haven't been increased. In fact, they were cut again in the wake of the EU vote this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/24/four-times-obr-has-wrong/

I think it might be best to give their "forecasts a swerve myself.

The OBR's adjustment downwards in growth forecasts post Brexit are 0.8 % in 2017 and 0.4 % in 2018. Given your figures for their recent margin of error it is difficult to understand the logic behind the last few pages of melodrama. There are people misusing forecasts to push a political view which is ironic given the abuse heaped out to certain newspapers for doing similar.
The OBR have a legitimate role and important work to present to the public. I think it disappointing that this work is poorly understood by those seeking to bolster their political position as this devalues the role of the OBR.

 

[portslade seagull]

Ah yes the OBR.........
Robert's own words on the Daily Politics: ''broad assumptions and wait until the fog clears..''
He again admitted there is only a 50% chance of his predictions coming to fruition. How can Hammond build policy on a coin toss?

Budget 2016: Osborne 'has only 50-50 chance' of hitting surplus target

Chancellor will have to raise taxes or make further cuts if OBR downgrades its forecasts again, IFS thinktank says.
From the Guardian no less..........https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...borne-chances-of-delivering-surplus-50-50-ifs


Here is a look at some of the OBR’s past mistakes.
Upgrades at the 2014 Budget

In March 2014, the OBR hiked its forecasts across the board, revealing that the economy was growing far more strongly than it previously anticipated.

Britain would grow by 2.7pc in 2014, the analysts said, well above the 1.8pc figure predicted a year earlier and the sharpest upgrade in decades.
In fact, even that was too low - GDP jumped by 3.1pc over the course of the year.
Consumer spending grew faster than the OBR had predicted, while business investment was also picking up and unemployment was crashing.
It was not only the OBR which was surprised. Mark Carney joined the Bank of England in mid-2013, predicting it would take several years for unemployment to fall below 7pc and for the Bank to start contemplating rate rises.
In fact it took only six months for joblessness to dive below that level as the economy took off. Yet interest rates still haven't been increased. In fact, they were cut again in the wake of the EU vote this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/24/four-times-obr-has-wrong/

I think it might be best to give their "forecasts a swerve myself.

Look the OBR tell the truth and nothing but the truth according to all remainers. How dare you question there pie in the sky assumptions. We must fail at all costs to teach us a lesson

 

[Soulman]

Look the OBR tell the truth and nothing but the truth according to all remainers. How dare you question there pie in the sky assumptions. We must fail at all costs to teach us a lesson

Can i have a 50/50, ask the audience, or phone a friend.........apparently i have a 50% chance of getting it right, same as the OBR actually, according to their main man.

 

[portslade seagull]

I thought her job was Prime Minister with a wider remit than simply to take us out of the EU?

As Prime Minister she needs to possess the ability to look at Brexit in context of the wider issues facing the country. However, the religious zeal with which she seems hell-bent on executing the advisory recommendation that was the EU referendum vote - to the extent of trying to bypass Parliament completely - suggests that she has tunnel vision. A complete disaster of an appointment.

Because she doesn't measure up to the remain collective. I think tunnel vision is something that could be more aimed at the people who can't accept a result.

 

[portslade seagull]

Which proves what given that these investment decisions would have been made before the vote.

Jaguar Land Rover to increase production and build electric cars in the UK creating 10,000 new jobs when up and running. Doesn't quite fit in with your negativity does it

 

[studio150]

The OBR's adjustment downwards in growth forecasts post Brexit are 0.8 % in 2017 and 0.4 % in 2018. Given your figures for their recent margin of error it is difficult to understand the logic behind the last few pages of melodrama. There are people misusing forecasts to push a political view which is ironic given the abuse heaped out to certain newspapers for doing similar.
The OBR have a legitimate role and important work to present to the public. I think it disappointing that this work is poorly understood by those seeking to bolster their political position as this devalues the role of the OBR.

I think what these pages show are there are very few posters who are involved in planning or measuring performance against plan in their day job, and therefore have a significant shortfall in knowledge on what planning is about. They just look at the headlines and don't delve down into the detail and the assumptions that have been made.

The OBR have a difficult job looking forward given that the Government have been unwilling to share any detail on what Brexit they are looking to achieve.Therefore assumptions must be made but with obvious caveats without full disclosure from the Government.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I think what these pages show are there are very few posters who are involved in planning or measuring performance against plan in their day job, and therefore have a significant shortfall in knowledge on what planning is about. They just look at the headlines and don't delve down into the detail and the assumptions that have been made.

The OBR have a difficult job looking forward given that the Government have been unwilling to share any detail on what Brexit they are looking to achieve.Therefore assumptions must be made but with obvious caveats without full disclosure from the Government.

Indeed, it could actually be an impossible job for the OBR. I have argued that the Government should not disclose its negotiating strategy so as to not show its hand in advance to the EU. However there is a significant disadvantage to this approach in the knock on effect on economic forecasting which will make public service planning even more difficult.

 

[portslade seagull]

Indeed, it could actually be an impossible job for the OBR. I have argued that the Government should not disclose its negotiating strategy so as to not show its hand in advance to the EU. However there is a significant disadvantage to this approach in the knock on effect on economic forecasting which will make public service planning even more difficult.

It's like asking TB to expose his hand to the selling club which effectively makes it a one sided negotiation. I'm sure the fan's would be over the moon with this approach.

 

[yxee]

To everyone saying the daily mail is useless journalism...

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Jaguar Land Rover to increase production and build electric cars in the UK creating 10,000 new jobs when up and running. Doesn't quite fit in with your negativity does it

Have they actually confirmed they will definitely do this?

 

[portslade seagull]

Have they actually confirmed they will definitely do this?

Why does it hurt ?? Read the bbc website, it's hidden away because it is positive news and goes against the grain for them

 

[nicko31]

Have they actually confirmed they will definitely do this?

No yet, it will by government assurance or guaranteed subsidy, incase the loons get their way

 

[Westdene Seagull]

No yet, it will by government assurance or guaranteed subsidy, incase the loons get their way

Not strictly true ... JLR want the government to invest in local infrastructure not provide a subsidy. Given the government / LA are responsible for local infrastructure it seems a reasonable request. Previous governments did it in South Wales and Sunderland WELL before there was even a sniff of us leaving the EU. It's clutching at straws to link it to Brexit.

 

[Baldseagull]

Ah yes the OBR.........
Robert's own words on the Daily Politics: ''broad assumptions and wait until the fog clears..''
He again admitted there is only a 50% chance of his predictions coming to fruition. How can Hammond build policy on a coin toss?

Budget 2016: Osborne 'has only 50-50 chance' of hitting surplus target

Chancellor will have to raise taxes or make further cuts if OBR downgrades its forecasts again, IFS thinktank says.
From the Guardian no less..........https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...borne-chances-of-delivering-surplus-50-50-ifs


Here is a look at some of the OBR’s past mistakes.
Upgrades at the 2014 Budget

In March 2014, the OBR hiked its forecasts across the board, revealing that the economy was growing far more strongly than it previously anticipated.

Britain would grow by 2.7pc in 2014, the analysts said, well above the 1.8pc figure predicted a year earlier and the sharpest upgrade in decades.
In fact, even that was too low - GDP jumped by 3.1pc over the course of the year.
Consumer spending grew faster than the OBR had predicted, while business investment was also picking up and unemployment was crashing.
It was not only the OBR which was surprised. Mark Carney joined the Bank of England in mid-2013, predicting it would take several years for unemployment to fall below 7pc and for the Bank to start contemplating rate rises.
In fact it took only six months for joblessness to dive below that level as the economy took off. Yet interest rates still haven't been increased. In fact, they were cut again in the wake of the EU vote this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/24/four-times-obr-has-wrong/

I think it might be best to give their "forecasts a swerve myself.

You or I can think what we like, but they do provide the numbers the Government uses when working out their budgets.