[Politics] Brexit

[Billy the Fish]

The

I am not a civil servant, but I've negotiated loads of contracts over the years. The point I'm making is as follows:

At the moment we are part of the EU, and therefore UK airlines can fly to and from other EU countries, and within other EU countries. If we are not in the EU, then UK airlines would have no right to fly to/from/within the EU, unless we had negotiated a replacement deal. As soon as Article 50 is triggered we have two years to try to conclude such a deal (which, by the way, needs to be agreed by 27 national governments and a whole range of regional assemblies). There is little incentive for other EU countries to negotiate- and even if several really wanted to, a few recalcitrant countries could just scupper the whole thing. That's why it hands the initiative to the other side. And this is only aviation. There are hundreds and hundreds - no, thousands - of other agreements that need to be negotiated, and agreed by all 27 EU countries. That's why some commentators have estimated we need at least another 30,000 civil servants. And even if we have them, the EU need to dedicate similar resources on their side.

If you have a solution to this, by all means post it on here - but, more helpfully, get in touch with the UK government because they definitely don't.

Jim, if you really believe this I think you need to hurry up and buy a one way ticket back from cloud cuckoo land! Quick, do it before they quarantine us forever.

 

[Baldseagull]

Jim, if you really believe this I think you need to hurry up and buy a one way ticket back from cloud cuckoo land! Quick, do it before they quarantine us forever.

I don't think Jim is saying we would be quarantined, what he is saying is the routes flown by UK based airlines like Easyjet would be subject to a new deal being worked out, that deal will take time to do and may mean most routes being serviced by EU based businesses, if they are EU based, that is where they will service their planes, administrate the business and pay their taxes, but you and I can still go to Tenerife.
Jims job however, may have gone to Paris.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

The small coffee shop I use and which currently employs a British lad who came over to primarily brush up on his the language will probably deem any paperwork they will have to undertake a pain; they've indicated as such. And a start-up I'm friendly with have said similar. I guess it's up to each business to decide if they can be arsed with any extra burden or not. An "easy process" is still an extra process though. If you are confronted with a few hoops to jump through, or none at all, I can understand why a small business will take the latter.

Can you really not see why this might deter some employers?

Yes, I take your point. I suppose neither of us really knows how that type of business will react and, as you say, it
will depend on the level of beaurocracy required. However for businesses hiring skilled workers from abroad I would think that there would be little issue and am basing my view on other countries with which we have flows of workers.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

OK. I've touched this before but take one example. One of my children and spouse. Intending to transfer part of existing business to Holland and run it from there whilst opening new business and maintaining existing operation in London. Main residency shifted to Amsterdam. Child planned; certain welfare requirements can be predicted. All this can be achieved but with (probably; we don't know yet) greater complexity and with the loss of the sense of shared citizenship that exists at the moment. I have a EU-national daughter in law who set up her business in London with a level of simplicity that certainly wasn't achieved by my own daughter who did the same, in a similar line of business, in a non-EU country. I mention in passing that since July my great niece has been running up against funding issues in respect of a two-centre modern language university course, as a direct result of Brexit. These are tangible examples. There are intangible ones resulting from the future loss of European-wide citizenship for my children's children which I guess large numbers of Leave voters just aren't interested in. It's not important to them. I appreciate that.

Well, as a father as well, I am interested. I just don't see why your family cannot fulfill their plans. We are leaving the EU not Europe and there will continue to be the opportunity to move abroad. Any other country will accept your children (just has been the case with my family) if they are interested in the skills. It won't be a 'human right' but that is only because in addition the community of destination will also get a say in who they think will contribute to their society.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yes, I take your point. I suppose neither of us really knows how that type of business will react and, as you say, it
will depend on the level of beaurocracy required. However for businesses hiring skilled workers from abroad I would think that there would be little issue and am basing my view on other countries with which we have flows of workers.

I'm not disagreeing about skilled workers. My point is more about the opportunities for everyday people who simply want a change of location, quality of life etc or young people at the start of their, say, coding career and want to join a little star up somewhere. Their opportunities may well be diminished.

I

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

The

I am not a civil servant, but I've negotiated loads of contracts over the years. The point I'm making is as follows:

At the moment we are part of the EU, and therefore UK airlines can fly to and from other EU countries, and within other EU countries. If we are not in the EU, then UK airlines would have no right to fly to/from/within the EU, unless we had negotiated a replacement deal. As soon as Article 50 is triggered we have two years to try to conclude such a deal (which, by the way, needs to be agreed by 27 national governments and a whole range of regional assemblies). There is little incentive for other EU countries to negotiate- and even if several really wanted to, a few recalcitrant countries could just scupper the whole thing. That's why it hands the initiative to the other side. And this is only aviation. There are hundreds and hundreds - no, thousands - of other agreements that need to be negotiated, and agreed by all 27 EU countries. That's why some commentators have estimated we need at least another 30,000 civil servants. And even if we have them, the EU need to dedicate similar resources on their side.

If you have a solution to this, by all means post it on here - but, more helpfully, get in touch with the UK government because they definitely don't.

Similar arguments against change could have been made when we joined the EU.
All of this will be the subject of negotiation. If EU nations bizarrely decided to boycott the U.K. then we would reciprocate but
I hardly think that likely.
As to not having a plan, as discussed before the Government has no intention of keeping you in the loop prior to
negotiation as that would be a suicidal negotiation strategy. That does not mean they don't have a plan anymore than it would have meant you not having a plan in your business because you didn't call me.
Hiring civil servants you mention as a negative. I disagree as I think that serving and organizing society is necessary to build a better one. There has been too much emphasis on self and individual rights in recent decades (ever since Margaret Thatcher) and not enough on responsibility to the community. Of course the usual business leaders will shout loudly if developments mean their own best interests are not our number one focus but people are more important than that business leaders desire to get rich. If we need to hire 30000 civil servants to improve society then I am in favour.

 

[wellquickwoody]

I'm not disagreeing about skilled workers. My point is more about the opportunities for everyday people who simply want a change of location, quality of life etc or young people at the start of their, say, coding career and want to join a little star up somewhere. Their opportunities may well be diminished.

I

Absolutely correct. My daughter was able to go to Oz because of her skills, qualifications and sponsorship by an employer. The only reason I can go is because firstly she is now resident, AND we will hand over a chunk of money to the Aussie government. If EU countries take the same approach there will be no more moving to Spain for the sunshine in your dotage, or moving to say Holland to get a.job and live with your girlfriend who you met whist travelling in Thailand. Unless of course you do have the qualifications that are valued in said country and/or a pile of Wonga to offer. Everyone else can stick here in the UK harvesting crops in Lincolnshire or working a zero hours contract with JD Sports.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Absolutely correct. My daughter was able to go to Oz because of her skills, qualifications and sponsorship by an employer. The only reason I can go is because firstly she is now resident, AND we will hand over a chunk of money to the Aussie government. If EU countries take the same approach there will be no more moving to Spain for the sunshine in your dotage, or moving to say Holland to get a.job and live with your girlfriend who you met whist travelling in Thailand. Unless of course you do have the qualifications that are valued in said country and/or a pile of Wonga to offer. Everyone else can stick here in the UK harvesting crops in Lincolnshire or working a zero hours contract with JD Sports.

Absolutely spot on.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

As to not having a plan, as discussed before the Government has no intention of keeping you in the loop prior to
negotiation as that would be a suicidal negotiation strategy. That does not mean they don't have a plan

I get this. But the constant squabbling between Tory MPs, numerous contradictory and conflicting off-message announcements and general disagreements doesnt suggest they have a plan and know what they're doing. Quite the opposite.

 

[Baldseagull]

Well, as a father as well, I am interested. I just don't see why your family cannot fulfill their plans. We are leaving the EU not Europe and there will continue to be the opportunity to move abroad. Any other country will accept your children (just has been the case with my family) if they are interested in the skills. It won't be a 'human right' but that is only because in addition the community of destination will also get a say in who they think will contribute to their society.

I find it interesting that the man that told us all we should not denigrate those that lack the ability to read or write, is happier in a world where only the most skilled and educated, have the freedom to seek opportunity elsewhere.

 

[beorhthelm]

I don't think Jim is saying we would be quarantined, what he is saying is the routes flown by UK based airlines like Easyjet would be subject to a new deal being worked out, that deal will take time to do and may mean most routes being serviced by EU based businesses, if they are EU based, that is where they will service their planes, administrate the business and pay their taxes, but you and I can still go to Tenerife.
Jims job however, may have gone to Paris.

if you follow Jim in the Wests train of thought, there would be no trade or business with any country outside the EU, when in reality we trade with about every nation for a larger total than our trade with EU. our large airlines fly to every major country, and the discounters fly to many beyond Europe, so it doesnt seem too challenging to arrange. and each country that may want to be protectionist, but balance that with the desire to a) have British tourists come to their country and b) assume the UK will allow their local airlines to land if they've rejected ours. so in the end, most route will be serviced by the same businesses as today, based in the same countries as today.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I get this. But the constant squabbling between Tory MPs, numerous contradictory and conflicting off-message announcements and general disagreements doesnt suggest they have a plan and know what they're doing. Quite the opposite.

And I get why you would say that. There are certainly too many large egos involved which does give me pause for thought. I would prefer that it were not the Tories managing this process.

 

[Baldseagull]

Similar arguments against change could have been made when we joined the EU.
All of this will be the subject of negotiation. If EU nations bizarrely decided to boycott the U.K. then we would reciprocate but
I hardly think that likely.
As to not having a plan, as discussed before the Government has no intention of keeping you in the loop prior to
negotiation as that would be a suicidal negotiation strategy. That does not mean they don't have a plan anymore than it would have meant you not having a plan in your business because you didn't call me.
Hiring civil servants you mention as a negative. I disagree as I think that serving and organizing society is necessary to build a better one. There has been too much emphasis on self and individual rights in recent decades (ever since Margaret Thatcher) and not enough on responsibility to the community. Of course the usual business leaders will shout loudly if developments mean their own best interests are not our number one focus but people are more important than that business leaders desire to get rich. If we need to hire 30000 civil servants to improve society then I am in favour.

Jim is not describing a boycott, you have a nasty habit of not extracting the intended meaning. Jim is saying that there will be less pressure on the EU to get a deal done quickly, than there will be on the UK, and in fact, it would be to their advantage in some ways to drag it out.
How many businesses in the UK are currently thinking they might relocate, at least some of their operations, to be based inside the EU? And how many from the EU do you reckon are thinking about coming the other way to the UK?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I find it interesting that the man that told us all we should not denigrate those that lack the ability to read or write, is happier in a world where only the most skilled and educated, have the freedom to seek opportunity elsewhere.

Happy to respond to this as it is not one of your angry and rude one liners.
You make a fair point but the reason I am happy with that position is that with every right comes a responsibility. Our 'right' to join other societies should be conditional on our positive contribution to that society. Your position that individual rights come before everything else is a natural extension of the Thatcherite ideology of the death of society.
I remain of the view that you shouldn't abuse people that you consider intellectually inferior. It's just basic human kindness and respect.

 

[Baldseagull]

if you follow Jim in the Wests train of thought, there would be no trade or business with any country outside the EU, when in reality we trade with about every nation for a larger total than our trade with EU. our large airlines fly to every major country, and the discounters fly to many beyond Europe, so it doesnt seem too challenging to arrange. and each country that may want to be protectionist, but balance that with the desire to a) have British tourists come to their country and b) assume the UK will allow their local airlines to land if they've rejected ours. so in the end, most route will be serviced by the same businesses as today, based in the same countries as today.

Tell Easyjet they are wasting time and money on their new EU based business. If we leave the single market, the UK based operation will be subsidary of the EU based operation.

Extract fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37984549
Ms McCall also confirmed that Easyjet is in the process of setting up a separate airline based on the European mainland, in readiness for when the UK leaves the EU.

Current EU flying rights might have to be renegotiated and the new company would ensure Easyjet could operate within the EU.

She said: "We are not saying there will be no agreement. We just don't know the shape or form. We don't have the luxury of waiting. But we have to take control of our own future."

There was no question of job cuts or moving from the current headquarters at Luton, she said. It was about registering aircraft and "securing flying rights".

Easyjet has built its success on flights from the UK to Europe, and now the company is poised to make a trip of its own to the Continent. To get round the regulatory complications of Britain's Brexit vote, it has to set up an organisation majority-owned and controlled by nationals and organisations inside the European Union.

 

[Baldseagull]

Happy to respond to this as it is not one of your angry and rude one liners.
You make a fair point but the reason I am happy with that position is that with every right comes a responsibility. Our 'right' to join other societies should be conditional on our positive contribution to that society. Your position that individual rights come before everything else is a natural extension of the Thatcherite ideology of the death of society.
I remain of the view that you shouldn't abuse people that you consider intellectually inferior. It's just basic human kindness and respect.

Again you are putting upon someone else a position they have not indicated or claimed to have. My only point of contention with you on this is that non skilled workers are also capable of making a positive contribution to society, your post seems to indicate that you think otherwise.

I have taken a rather antagonistic stance with you in other posts, as you took a rather patronising one with me, in telling me that when Dan Hannan says "access to the single market" he is not talking about full free access, just the sort of access any non EEA nation has. Then when shown evidence to contradict your position, refused to acknowledge that position as erroneous and decided instead to say that you were not wrong and entitled to differing opinion. You are entitled to differing opinion, but when that opinion is contrary to the facts, you appear to be lacking either intelligence or honesty. My attacks on your intelligence were in the hope that I may provoke some honesty.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Well, as a father as well, I am interested. I just don't see why your family cannot fulfill their plans. We are leaving the EU not Europe and there will continue to be the opportunity to move abroad. Any other country will accept your children (just has been the case with my family) if they are interested in the skills. It won't be a 'human right' but that is only because in addition the community of destination will also get a say in who they think will contribute to their society.

Your response, which I respect, suggests that we are approaching the issue with different mindsets. I quoted Churchill's '48 speech earlier because what he said chimes with the aspirations of my family, and other families I know. The thing that most depresses me about the small interchange we are having is not what you say - it is perfectly valid of course - but the way it reveals a huge gulf between how the two sides of this debate see our country developing.

 

[Two Professors]

Tell Easyjet they are wasting time and money on their new EU based business. If we leave the single market, the UK based operation will be subsidary of the EU based operation.

Extract fromhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37984549
Ms McCall also confirmed that Easyjet is in the process of setting up a separate airline based on the European mainland, in readiness for when the UK leaves the EU.

Current EU flying rights might have to be renegotiated and the new company would ensure Easyjet could operate within the EU.

She said: "We are not saying there will be no agreement. We just don't know the shape or form. We don't have the luxury of waiting. But we have to take control of our own future."

There was no question of job cuts or moving from the current headquarters at Luton, she said. It was about registering aircraft and "securing flying rights".

Easyjet has built its success on flights from the UK to Europe, and now the company is poised to make a trip of its own to the Continent. To get round the regulatory complications of Britain's Brexit vote, it has to set up an organisation majority-owned and controlled by nationals and organisations inside the European Union.

Looks like they are just doing the sensible thing in case the EU buffoonery try to make things awkward.They are not moving lock,stock,and barrel so I fail to see what difference it makes.The opening of a Swiss office made no difference when it happened.Try not to get over-excited by any possibility of harm to the British economy,as this behaviour is what makes normal people hold you and your ilk in contempt!I don't suppose the Greek owners will open their new office in their homeland,might have to pay some tax.

 

[beorhthelm]

...
She said: "We are not saying there will be no agreement. We just don't know the shape or form. We don't have the luxury of waiting. But we have to take control of our own future."

There was no question of job cuts or moving from the current headquarters at Luton, she said. It was about registering aircraft and "securing flying rights".

so they are making a contingency plan of setting up a company in the EU to handle EU company registration if worse case scenario occurs. otherwise known as a brass plate company. doesn't seem a waste of time, only goes to show how you get around EU protectionism if they chose to be belligerent.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

so they are making a contingency plan of setting up a company in the EU to handle EU company registration if worse case scenario occurs. otherwise known as a brass plate company. doesn't seem a waste of time, only goes to show how you get around EU protectionism if they chose to be belligerent.

You make this sound so trivial. They will not be able to run the company from this "brass plate."

And I like the way you slip in protectionism. This is what trading blocks do; they're set up for benefit and not for fun. The uk will be seeking to protect your economy as much as the EU will theirs.